Paul's Picks 2025 Week 16/Bowls Part 1

Welcome Back

Last week, for the Conference Championship Games, I was only 5-4 (55.6%), making me 670-217 overall with a winning percentage of 75.5% (down 0.2% from last week). You should know that I often root against my picks, as I rarely go with my heart- I almost always pick the team I think will win, not the one I hope wins.

So now we have the final game of the regular season, and the beginning of the bowls. Full disclaimer- I'm usually around 50% for bowls, as they are notoriously difficult to predict, due to coaching changes, opt-outs, etc. In other words, don't bet the house based on my picks; it's all a crapshoot anyway, but I'm going to give it the ol' College Try!

So...on with the picks!

Saturday, December 13

Army vs Navy (Baltimore, MD) - This is annually one of the most entertaining games of the year, but I have often had to miss it for one reason or another. Perhaps I'll get to watch this year. The Midshipmen lead the series 63-55-7, and it's a game that has been played continuously since 1930. Prior to that, they played yearly from 1890-1893, from 1899-1908, from 1910-1916, and then from 1919-1927. The longest winning streak for either team was 14 for Navy, from 2002-2015, but the Black Knights have won 6 of 9 since then, though Navy won 31-13 last year. The teams have met in several different locations, with Philadelphia by far the most frequent location, but they have played in Baltimore 5 times, with the Midshipmen holding a slight 3-2 edge. Navy is 9-2, winning their last 2 following a 2-game road slide at North Texas and Notre Dame. The Black Knights are 6-5, winning 3 of their last 4 after a slow 1-3 start, including a loss to FCS Tarleton State at home. This year, Army was 4-2 away from West Point, with wins over Kansas State, UAB, Air Force, and UTSA, and losses at Tulane and ECU. Navy was 3-2 away from Annapolis, with wins at Tulsa, Temple, and Memphis, and the aforementioned 2 losses. The winner of this game will get to claim the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, and Navy will be looking to claim it for a 2nd year in a row, and their 17th time overall. But I'm picking Army to stake the claim to their 11th Trophy (Air Force has 21). And the Caissons, go rolling along!

Boise State vs Washington (Bucked Up LA Bowl- Inglewood, CA)- The Huskies lead this series 4-2, with the Broncos winning in the 2012 Las Vegas Bowl and in 2015 in Boise, and UW winning in 2007, 2013, the 2019 Las Vegas Bowl, and 56-19 in 2023. The LA Bowl has only been around since 2021, and while this will be Washington's 1st appearance here, Boise State has a loss in 2023 to UCLA. However, the MWC is 3-1 in this bowl with current and former Pac 12 teams at 1-3. The Mountain West Conference champion Broncos are 13-9 all-time in bowl games, but they've lost their last 2, and 3 of their last 4, and this year are 9-4, and 3-3 away from the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium. The Huskies are 20-22-1 in bowls, also losing their last 2, and are 8-4 this season, including 3-2 away from Husky Stadium in Seattle. UW wins.

Tuesday, December 16

Troy vs Jacksonville State (IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl- Montgomery, AL)- This is a contest between 2 teams that finished 2nd in their respective conferences due to losing in the conference CG. The Gamecocks lead the series 32-29-2, but the Trojans have won the last 7. However, they haven't played since 2001, making this the "resumption" of a series that began in 1924 and was played almost yearly through 2001. This game began in 2014 as the Camellia Bowl, but changed names in 2024. This will be the 1st appearance in this bowl for both teams, but the SBC is 6-4 here, while CUSA is 1-2. Troy is 8-5, and 4-2 away from Veterans Memorial Stadium, and they are 6-5 in bowls all-time, winning 5 of their last 6. Jax State is also 8-5, 3-4 away from JSU Stadium, and are 1-1 in bowl games after 2 years at the FBS level. JSU lost to 2 SBC teams this year- Ga Southern and USM, both on the road; Troy didn't play GS, but did defeat Southern Miss in Hattiesburg. Trojans win.

Wednesday, December 17

ODU vs USF (StaffDNA Cure Bowl- Orlando, FL)- The Cure Bowl has been around since 2015, but neither the Monarchs nor the Bulls have attended. However, the SBC is 5-4 here, while the American Conference is 1-1, but hasn't played here since 2018. Both teams are 9-3, with ODU 3-3 away from S.B. Ballard Stadium and USF also 3-3 away from home (Raymond James Stadium, but they're getting a new on-campus stadium soon). The Bulls are 8-4 in bowls, winning their last 2; the Monarchs are 1-2, winning their 1st in 2016, then losing their last 2 in 2021 and 2023. One consideration is that former USF HC Alex Golesch has left to become the HC at Auburn, and he will not coaching in this game, but instead will be led by interim HC Kevin Patrick, as new HC Brian Hartline will be finishing his duties as OC at Ohio State. This is an interesting matchup, as these are 2 quality teams, but USF will win this 1st time meeting.

Louisiana vs Delaware (68 Ventures Bowl- Mobile, AL)- This bowl has been through numerous name changes, but has always been held in Mobile. It started as the Mobile Alabama Bowl in 1999, then was the GMAC Bowl (2001-2010), the GoDaddy.com Bowl (2011-2013), the GoDaddy Bowl (2014-2015), the Dollar General Bowl (2016-2018), the LendingTree Bowl (2020-2022), and now the current name. The gap is explained by the bowl moving from being played in early January to being played in late December, and back again. The Ragin' Cajuns have made one appearance, a win over Miami, Oh in January 2020. This, of course, is Delaware's 1st appearance in any bowl, as this is their 1st year at the FBS level. However, the Blue Hens are 26-18 all-time in the FCS Playoffs, while the Ragin' Cajuns are 6-6 in bowls, losing their last 3. The SBC is 11-4 in this bowl, while CUSA is only 4-8. Both teams are 6-6, with UL 2-4 away from Cajun Field, and the Blue Hens 1-5 outside of Delaware Stadium. Louisiana wins big in this 1st-ever matchup.

Thursday, December 18

Missouri State vs Arkansas State (Xbox Bowl- Frisco, TX)- This is the very 1st time this bowl will be played, so there is no history to talk about. Like Delaware, this is Mo State's 1st year at the FBS level, but they were only 1-4 in the FCS Playoffs, winning their 1st contest in 1989, and none since. The Red Wolves are 5-6 in bowls, winning 2 of their last 3 (since 2019). The Bears are 7-5, losing their last 2, but they were 4-2 away from Robert W. Plaster Stadium. ASU is 6-6, 3-3 away from Centennial Bank Stadium, and have a loss to CUSA member Kennesaw State (as does MSU). The Red Wolves are 3-1 against the Bears, losing the 1st meeting in 1991, then reeling off 3 straight wins in 1997, 1998, and 2015, with all games in Jonesboro. Missouri State HC Ryan Beard has just accepted the HC job at CCU, so the interim HC will be OC Nick Petrino. The Red Wolves win.

Friday, December 19

Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan (Myrtle Beach Bowl- Conway, SC)- The Myrtle Beach Bowl has been around since 2020, but neither of these teams have made an appearance. The MAC is 1-0 here, while CUSA is 0-2. This will be KSU's 1st ever bowl game, as this is just their 2nd year at the FBS level (and they were 2-10 last year), but they were 0-4 in the FCS Playoffs (this is a relatively new team, as they have only been playing football since 2015). The Broncos are a miserable 2-10 in bowl games, but they've split their last 2, in 2021 and 2024. The Owls are 10-3, with all 3 losses away from Fifth Third Bank stadium, but they were 5-3 in road games, with 2 of those losses at Wake Forest and Indiana, and they avenged the 3rd loss in the rematch in the CUSA CG. WMU is 9-4, winning their last 5, and 9 of their last 10, and are 4-3 away from Waldo Stadium, with 2 of those losses at Big Ten teams. These are 2 quality teams who will be meeting for the 1st time, and are also their respective conference champions. Hooty Hoo! KSU wins!

Memphis vs NC State (Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl- Tampa, FL)- The Gasparilla Bowl has been around since 2008, when it was known as the St. Petersburg Bowl (2008-2009, 2014-2016) and the Beef O' Brady's Bowl (2010- 2013) before settling on its current name in 2017. This will be the 2nd appearance for both teams, with NC State winning in 2014 and Memphis losing in the inaugural contest in 2008. The American Conference is a respectable 6-4 in this game, but the ACC is 3-0. The Tigers are 8-4, but finished the season on a 3-game losing streak, and were 4-2 away from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. HC Ryan Silverfield has departed to coach Arkansas, so Memphis will be led by interim HC Reggie Howard until new hire Charles Huff (from USM) comes on board. The Wolfpack are 7-5, winning their last 2, and 3 of their last 4, as they were only 1-3 away from Carter-Finley Stadium. NCSU is 17-18-1 in bowls, losing each of their last 5; the Tigers are 8-8 in bowls, winning their last 4. So far, most of the bowls we've looked at look to be fairly competitive, i.e. fun. This is another one that appears to be between 2 evenly matched teams, so I'm going with the coaching stability of the Wolfpack to prevail in this 1st time meeting.

9 Alabama @ 8 Oklahoma (CFP First Round)- The Crimson Tide is 9-5 in CFP games, but they are 6-2 in the opening round, losing in 2014 to eventual champion Ohio State in the inaugural edition ,and then again in 2023 to eventual national champion Michigan. Alabama is 46-29-3 in postseason play, but have lost their last 2, and 3 of their last 4. Meanwhile, the Sooners are 0-4 in the CFP, and 31-26-1 in bowl games, losing their last 3, but this is the first time they have returned to the CFP since losing to LSU in 2019. OU is 5-2-1 against Bama, winning in 2002, 2003, the 2014 Sugar Bowl, 2024, and 2025 (23-21 on Nov 15). The Tide has wins in the 1963 and 2018 Orange Bowls, and the tie was in the 1970 Bulebonnet Bowl. The SEC is 18-9 in CFP games, but are guaranteed both a win and a loss in this contest. The Sooners are 10-2, on a current 4-game winning streak, and are 4-1 away from Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium, with their only road loss to Texas in Dallas in October. Alabama is 10-3, but have lost 2 of their last 3 FBS contests, and are 4-2 away from Bryant-Denny Stadium. I have little confidence in OU scoring enough to win, but I have even less in Alabama's ability to run the ball effectively, or to stop the run. The Sooners win the rematch.

Saturday, December 20

10 Miami, Fl @ 7 Texas A&M (CFP First Round)- This will be the 1st appearance in the CFP for both teams. As stated above, the SEC is 18-9 in CFP games. However, the ACC is only 6-8 in the CFP, with all of the wins by Clemson (6-5). The Hurricanes lead the series 3-2, winning in 2007, 2008, and 2023, with TAMU's 2 wins coming in 1944 and 2022. The Aggies are 11-1, losing the season finale to Texas to fall short of the SEC CG. They are just 20-24 in bowl games, losing their last 2, and 3 of their last 4. Miami is 10-2, winning their last 4, but they are an even worse 19-25 in bowls, losing their last 6 (since 2017), and 12 of their last 13 (since 2008). The Canes were 3-1 away from Hard Rock Stadium while the Aggies were 4-1 away from Kyle Field. This is yet another evenly-matched contest. The Aggies win.

11 Tulane @ 6 Ole Miss (CFP First Round)- Like the game above, both of these teams will be making their 1st appearance in the CFP. Again, the SEC is 18-9 in the CFP (they have half of the teams in the 1st round), while the American is 0-1 (Cincinnati in 2021). The Rebels lead this series 44-28, winning the last 14 on the field (since 1989, with wins in 2010 and 2012 vacated), including 45-10 on September 20 of this year. Ole Miss is 26-16 in bowl games, winning their last 2, and they won the last 5 games of this season as well. In addition, they are 3-1 away from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium with their only loss at Georgia in an 11-1 season. The Green Wave are 11-2, winning the American Conference CG, as they have won their last 4 games. Both of their losses were away from Yulman Stadium- at Ole Miss and at UTSA- and they are 7-10 in bowl games, losing each of their last 2, both to P4 teams. I expect this contest to be closer than the 1st one in September, but not by much. Rebels prevail, despite losing HC Lane Kiffin to LSU, as Tulane HC Jon Sumrall is also gone (to Florida).

12 James Madison @ 5 Oregon (CFP First Round)- The Ducks are 1-2 in the CFP, as the Pac 12 was 2-3 (Washington was 1-1; both of those teams are now in the Big Ten, which is 11-10 in the CFP). The Dukes will obviously be making their 1st appearance in the field, and this will be the 1st from the Sun Belt Conference as well. JMU is in as the SBC Champion, and at 12-1, has only a loss at Louisville on September 5, making them 5-1 away from Brideforth Stadium. They are on an 11-game winning streak, and are 1-1 in bowl games, defeating WKU last year in the Boca Raton Bowl. But this is a big step up for the Dukes, as they are only 6-22 all-time against P4 teams. UO is 11-1, but 5-0 away from Autzen Stadium with their only loss at home to #1 seed Indiana. The Ducks are only 17-21 in bowls, but they've won 3 of their last 4. The Dukes are only in this game against the Ducks due to a win by Duke. As much of a feel-good story this is, I just don't see the Quack Attack being stopped, as I see Oregon as one of 4 teams that could win it all. Ducks win big.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back next week for more bowl picks!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!