Paul's Pick- CFP National Championship Game
Welcome Back!
I was the very definition of mediocre on bowl predictions this year, though it was rough there for a bit. At 50%, I slid back by about 7.8% from last year. My record is 23-23, with one game still to go.
Bowl Games are notoriously difficult to predict, and always have been, but it's been made so much more difficult with all the opt-outs, transfers, and coaching changes occurring much earlier than they used to. All of which is to say that if I can finish at or around 50% for the bowls, I will consider that a success. Above 60%? That's a rousing success. 75% or better? That's a minor miracle!
For the year, I finished 667-240, or 74.2%, with the bowls knocking 1.3% off my winning percentage.
This is how each conference did in the bowls/postseason:
Monday, January 19
National Championship Game (Miami Gardens, Florida)
10 Miami vs 1 Indiana- These teams have played twice before, with each holding a win.
Including this year, the Hurricanes are 22-25 in bowl/postseason games; the Hoosiers are 6-10. In National Championship Games, the Big Ten is 3-1 (the Oregon and Washington losses were while those were members of the Pac 12), with the ACC at 2-2 (all by Clemson). In all CFP games, the Big Ten is 15-12 (.556) while the ACC is 9-8 (.529), so this is another area where the winner of this game will hold 2nd place right behind the SEC.
Here is how the teams stack up statistically:
Note: All stats are pulled from the official NCAA website, which means transitional teams (Delaware and Missouri State) are not included, so the rankings are out of 134 teams, and not the 136 that actually played FBS Football this season. Also, I have no idea how passing efficiency and passing efficiency defense is calculated, but I included it in case you do. Finally, time of possession is only given in minutes, not broken down by seconds, so there is no way of knowing if Miami and Indiana possesses the ball for 32 minutes and 30 seconds per game, or 33:29 per game (or even 33:59 per game, for that matter).
Looking at the stats, Indiana appears to have an advantage in nearly every category. Offensively, both teams are very efficient, albeit in different ways- the Canes are better passing while the Hoosiers are better running the ball. Defensively, they are both very good, but again, Indiana is better in almost every category. And the Hoosiers have a huge advantage in turnover margin. On special teams, each team does some things very well, while just being OK (or worse) in other aspects. These are 6 keys to this game:
1) Can Miami control the line of scrimmage enough for their running game to be effective? If they are forced into 2nd or 3rd and longs (being forced to pass), it could be a long night for the Hurricanes.
2) Which team will be able to convert their red zone chances into TDs, and which will have to settle for FGs?
3) Can one of the teams create (or cause) a big play on special teams that perhaps could be the difference in the game?
4) Can the Canes win the turnover battle and create additional chances (and short fields) for their offense?
5) Can the Hurricanes stay away from penalties? IU is one of the least penalized games while the U is one of the most penalized. If this stat stays true for the game, Miami will have little chance to win. But if the Canes can keep penalties to a minimum, then their chances are greatly enhanced.
6) What type of game will this be? If it's low scoring, I would give the advantage to Miami. If it's high scoring, I don't think the Canes can't keep up.
Having considered all the history and the stats, I'm going with the Hoosiers to win their 1st ever National Championship, but a win by the Hurricanes would not surprise me in the least. However, I think IU is just too disciplined, too confident, and too efficient for the Canes to keep up. Final score: 31-17.
Feel free to leave a comment. It's been a fun season, and I appreciate each of the readers who spent time with me.
May you and your loved ones be blessed!
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