2026 College Football Preview Part I
Welcome Back!
Today starts 5 weeks of my college football previews. I'll begin with 3 weeks of individual team previews, and then conclude with 2 weeks of conference previews.
In case you are interested, I get all of my information from various sources. I use the 4 main preview magazines (Phil Steele, Lindy's, Athlon, and The Sporting News (which returns for the 1st time since 2012!), but I also use many different websites, including (but not limited to): Google, Winsipedia.com, sports-reference.com, ESPN.com, TeamRankings.com, Wikipedia, NCAA.com, and, of course, individual school websites.
I don't have a staff- it's just me- so all of the research is my own from these various sources (it doesn't help when they contradict each other...), so any mistakes are mine. I also don't have an editor/proofreader, so you are likely to find several (many? I hope not) typos, such as commas where periods should be (or vice versa), a misspelled or missing word, doubled words ("the the" in the middle of a sentence, for example), etc.
Finally, feel free to leave a comment. Interacting is much of the fun! Of course, if you know me personally, you can just text. I'll get that a lot quicker.
So, on with the previews! Today is #s 138-125.
138- UMass Minutemen 0-12/0-8 (13th)
Coach: Joe Harasymiak (2nd year, 2nd overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 0-12/.000/138th
3-year record/rank: 5-31/.139/136th
6-year record/rank: 7-57/.109/131st
10-year record/rank: 18-94/.161/130th
Last League Title: 2007 Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) co-champs, 2006 Atlantic 10 Conference
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 14 years bowl-less/1972/1972
Bowl Record/Rank: 1-1/.500/T59th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 1963/8-0-1 under HC Vic Fusia
Last Winless Season: 2025/0-12 under HC Joe Harasymiak
All-time Record/Rank: 582-661-50/.469/112th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 11.1/134th/12th in MAC
Rushing: 82.4/131st/12th
Passing: 165.1/118th/10th
Total: 247.5/134th/12th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 38.6/134th/12th
Rushing: 221.3/132nd/11th
Passing: 212.5/55th/8th
Total: 433.8/127th/12th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 4/5
Schedule:
Sep 3 @ Rutgers
Sep 12 Sacred Heart
Sep 19 Stonehill
Sep 26 @ Sacramento State
Oct 3 Eastern Michigan
Oct 10 Miami, Ohio
Oct 17 @ Buffalo
Oct 23 @ UConn
Nov 4 Ball State
Nov 11 @ Toledo
Nov 18 Akron
Nov 28 @ Bowling Green
Notes: The Minutemen haven’t been to a bowl since they rejoined the FBS in 2012, and obviously haven’t won, which gives them the longest bowl drought (since a win in the 1972 Boardwalk Bowl vs UC Davis); the Minutemen haven’t won more than 4 games in a season since they were 5-6 in 2011, their last year as an FCS team, and have not had a winning record since they were 6-5 in 2010; UMass has lost 23 straight FBS games (last wins were in 2024 versus FCS teams), with their last FBS win at Army in 2023, and have lost 19 straight FBS home games, with their last home FBS win against UConn in 2021 (their only win that year); UMass is on a 16-game losing streak overall, with an average margin of defeat of 26.8 pts; offense hasn’t averaged more than 23.2 ppg since 2018; the Minutemen had both the worst scoring offense (and worst in total offense) and worst scoring defense in all of FBS last season, and were the only team with less than 1000 yds rushing and less than 2000 yds passing; 582 wins all-time puts them in 87th place, just 1 ahead of Louisiana, and 1 behind Nevada, Sam Houston, and Utah State in 84th place; UMass had a -7 TO margin, tied for 112th; QB is likely to be Va Tech transfer William “Pop” Watson III (2 starts in 2024); K Derek Morris (10-16 FGs, 3-5 from 50+, UMass record holder for longest FG at 56 yds) returns, but P Edward Phillipson is new; UMass is only 26-122 (.176) since moving up to the FBS in 2012; offense was held to 14 points or less in 10 games last season, scoring 21 in a 28-21 loss to Buffalo and 26 in a 1-point loss to FCS Bryant; defense allowed 38+ points in 9 games, with 8 teams scoring 42+ (lowest allowed was in a 21-3 loss to WMU); defense has allowed only 1 other opponent (FCS Wagner in 2024) to less than 23 points in their last 26 games; UMass plates only 7 of 12 games on a Saturday, with 3 consecutive Wednesday games in November.
Outlook: UMass returned to the MAC last year after a 9-year hiatus (they were members from 2012-2015, and went 7-25 in the conference). Theoretically, this gives them a better chance to earn wins, but they had played 8 MAC teams the prior 2 years (5 in 2024) and lost all of them (with 6 losses by double digits). The Minutemen have typically fared well against FCS teams (though they lost to FCS Bryant last year), so if they can get 2 more wins somewhere, they could match their best seasons at the FBS level (4-8 in 2017 and 2018 under HC Mark Whipple). Supposedly, the Minutemen have nowhere to go but up after an 0-12 campaign in 2025, and their schedule sets up for early success. After opening at Rutgers, they have 2 FCS teams at home, and then play at Sacramento State in the Hornets’ 1st MAC home game, so it’s possible UMass could be 3-1 heading into October, and would give them their 1st FBS win since 2023 and 1st MAC win since rejoining the conference. In my mind, that would be an improvement, and would constitute a successful season. But could they get more than 3 wins? My guess is anywhere from 2-4 wins, with 5 being wildly successful.
137- Charlotte 49ers 1-11/0-8 (14th)
Coach: Tim Albin (2nd year, 6th overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 34-30/.531/74th
3-year record/rank: 9-27/.250/131st
6-year record/rank: 19-47/.288/127th
10-year record/rank: 36-79/.313/124th
Last League Title: None
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 6 years bowl-less/2019/Never
Bowl Record/Rank: 0-1/.000/T133rd
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season:None (since 1946); best season was 7-6 in 2019 under HC Will Healy
Last Winless Season: 1948/0-5 under HC Carol Blackwell (Charlotte had a team from 1946-48, then reformed in 2013 at the FCS level before moving up to FBS in 2015)
All-time Record/Rank: 51-105/.327/136th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 14.3/131st/14th AAC
Rushing: 81.8/132nd/14th
Passing: 204.0/92nd/10th
Total: 285.8/131st/14th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 37.8/131st/13th
Rushing: 200.3/123rd/12th
Passing: 271.7/129th/14th
Total: 471.9/133rd/14th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 4/5
Schedule:
Sep 5 The Citadel
Sep 12 @ Ole Miss
Sep 19 @ Appalachian State
Sep 26 Louisiana
Oct 3 Memphis
Oct 10 @ North Texas
Oct 17 @ Temple
Oct 30 Tulane
Nov 7 @ UAB
Nov 14 East Carolina
Nov 21 @ Tulsa
Nov 28 Navy
Notes: The 49ers have never won a bowl, and have only appeared in one once (2019); scoring offense was the worst in program history; Charlotte had a -8 TO margin, tied for 115th; QB will be between Connor Harrell (737 yds, 67%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs before knee injury ended his season), Grayson Loftis (1,415 yds, 55.2%, 8 TDs, 8 INTs), and Pitt transfer Cole Gonzalez (6,682 yds, 52 TDs, 23 INTs in 3 years at Western Carolina); defense allowed 30 rushing TDs and more than 200 rushing yds/game; P Bronson Long (42.7 avg, 38.3 net) returns, but K Aiden Bui is new; Charlotte is on a 9-game losing streak (tied for 5th longest), an 11-game FBS losing streak, and has lost 8 consecutive American Conference games; 2019 is their only winning record (7-6) at the FBS level; the 49ers closest loss was by 11 points to Rice, and only 3 other losses were by less than 21 points; their lone win was by 7 over an FCS opponent; the 49ers have the fewest wins (51) of any FBS team not in their 1st year; Charlotte has the lowest winning percentage of any team.
Outlook: This looks like another rebuilding year, but Albin is known for big jumps in his 2nd year, as his Ohio team went from 3-9 to 3 consecutive 10-win seasons. The schedule is very similar to last year, with an FCS team, a trip to Appalachian State, and switching out UGA for Ole Miss (but much earlier in the season). They also have Louisiana at home in place of hosting UNC last year. In the American conference, they have a fairly balanced schedule, with some expected to contend, and some expected to scrape the bottom. This team could get to 3 or 4 wins, with 5 as the ceiling, but their primary goals need to be ending the losing streak and getting a conference win.
136- Sam Houston Bearkats 2-10/1-7 (tied for 11th)
Coach: Phil Longo (2nd year, 2nd overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 2-10/.167/104th
3-year record/rank: 15-22/.405/108th
6-year record/rank: N/A
10-year record/rank: N/A
Last League Title: 2021 WAC
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year bowl-less/2024/2024
Bowl Record/Rank: 1-0/1.000/T1st
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 2020/10-0 under HC K.C. Keeler
Last Winless Season: 1948/0-9-1 under HC Puny Wilson
All-time Record/Rank: 583-501-34/.537/74th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 17.8/125th/10th CUSA
Rushing: 131.9/97th/6th
Passing: 184.1/108th/8th
Total: 316.0/119th/10th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 37.8/T-131st/10th
Rushing: 207.6/126th/10th
Passing: 275.9/131st/10th
Total: 483.5/134th/10th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 4/3
Schedule:
Sep 5 @ Troy
Sep 12 Tulsa
Sep 19 Nicholls
Sep 26 @ Texas Tech
Oct 8 @ Liberty
Oct 14 WKU
Oct 21 New Mexico State
Oct 27 @ Missouri State
Nov 7 @ Jacksonville State
Nov 14 Kennesaw State
Nov 21 Middle Tennessee
Nov 28 @ FIU
Notes: The Bearkats had one of the worst defenses in FBS last year, and the worst in CUSA; SHS will be returning to refurbished Elliott T. Bowers Stadium after playing every game away from campus; 583 all-time wins puts the Bearkats in a 3-way tie for 84th with Nevada and Utah State, and just 1 win ahead of UMass and 2 behind a tie for 81st place; SHS had a +2 TO margin, tied for 55th, and 2nd best in CUSA; QB is likely to be Landyn Locke (765 yds, 50.4%, 4 TDs, 4 INTs in 7 games); Both K and P will be new, with the P likely to be WF transfer Cal Joseph (38.1 avg); last year was their first 10-loss season since they were 1-10 1977 under HC Billy Tidwell, as they went from 10 wins in 2024 to 10 losses in 2025; only 1 of 10 losses were by less than 14 points, with their 2 wins by a combined 7 points.
Outlook: Sam Houston really struggled in HC Phil Longo’s 1st year in Huntsville, but they at least won 2 of their last 4 games. I hate to say it, but in today’s win-at-all-cost-right-now environment, Longo may not last the year if they get off to a poor start. But their 1st 3 games are all “winnable”, as they open with Troy on the road, followed by Tulsa and FCS Nicholls at home. If they can finish their OOC slate at 2-2 (I’m counting the game at Texas Tech as a loss…), then a 4-4 CUSA record gets them to 6 wins and bowl eligibility. Can they do it? Unfortunately, the CUSA team they miss this year is Delaware, one of their 2 wins form last season. I foresee another season of 2-4 wins, which may or may not be enough to keep Longo around for a 3rd year.
135- Georgia State Panthers 1-11/0-8 (7th in East)
Coach: Dell McGee (3rd year, 3rd overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 4-20/.167/104th
3-year record/rank: 11-26/.297/126th
6-year record/rank: 29-43/.403/109th
10-year record/rank: 49-73/.397/108th
Last League Title: None
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 2 years bowl-less/2023/2023
Bowl Record/Rank: 4-2/.667/T9th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: Never (since 2010); best season was 8-5 in 2021 under HC Shawn Elliott
Last Winless Season: 2013/0-12 under HC Trent Miles (1st year at FBS level)
All-time Record/Rank: 65-126/.340/135th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 19.8/117th/13th SBC
Rushing: 124.1/106th/12th
Passing: 254.1/36th/4th
Total: 378.2/75th/9th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 37.8/131st/14th
Rushing: 208.1/128th/13th
Passing: 240.8/108th/11th
Total: 448.8/131st/13th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 6/2
Schedule:
Sep 4 North Carolina A&T
Sep 12 @ Kennesaw State
Sep 19 @ UCF
Sep 26 Northern Illinois
Oct 3 ODU
Oct 17 @ James Madison
Oct 24 Arkansas State
Oct 31 Coastal Carolina
Nov 7 @ Appalachian State
Nov 14 Georgia Southern
Nov 21 @ Marshall
Nov 28 Louisiana
Notes: Georgia State has only 65 wins in program history, better than only Charlotte, and 18 behind Kennesaw State in 134th place; all-time winning percentage is the worst in the Sun Belt Conference, as is the number of wins; GSU had a -11 TO margin, tied for 123rd in FBS, and last in the SBC; QB Cameran Brown (1,296 yds, 65%, 13 TDs, 1 INT, 271 yds rushing, 4.7 ypc) returns; defense allowed 58 TDs, recovered only 3 fumbles, intercepted only 3 passes, and produced only 18 sacks; both K (either Samer Layous or Balint Vorosmarty) and P Christian Teeter are new; defense allowed 31+ points in 9 games last year, and has held only 1 opponent (James Madison in a 14-7 loss last year) opponent below 21 points in their last 29 games; GSU is tied for the 9th longest current losing streak at 9 games, and they have lost 12 consecutive FBS games, including 9 FBS home games in a row.
Outlook: The Panthers need to show improvement in HC Dell McGee’s 3rd year in Atlanta, as they have gone from 7 wins in 2023 to 3 wins in 24 (McGee’s 1st year) to one win last year. GSU has been to a bowl in 6 of their 13 years at the FBS level, but have yet to win more than 8 games, and only three times have they finished the season with a winning record in the Sun Belt Conference: 5-3 in 2015 under HC Trent Miles, and 5-3 in 2017 and 6-2 in 2021 under HC Shawn Elliott. This year, Ga State has a chance to do as well as 3-1 in OOC games, as they play FCS NC A&T and NIU at home, and Kennesaw State and UCF on the road. In the SBC, they get Arkansas State and Louisiana in crossover games. If they can win 3 OOC games, then a 3-5 SBC record gets them back to a bowl, but that could be a tall order. I see 4 wins, but only if both the offense and defense improve. Anything less could mean the end of Coach McGee’s tenure here.
134- ULM Warhawks 3-9/1-7 (7th in West)
Coach: Bryant Vincent (3rd year, 4th overall FBS)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 15-22/.405/102nd
3-year record/rank: 10-26/.278/128th
6-year record/rank: 18-52/.257/129th
10-year record/rank: 37-81/.314/123rd
Last League Title: 2005 Sun Belt co-champs/1992 Southland Conference
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 13 years bowl-less/2012/Never
Bowl Record/Rank: 0-1/.000/T133rd
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 1937/6-0-1 under HC James L. Monroe (NJCAA)
Last Winless Season: 2020/0-10 under HC Matt Viator
All-time Record/Rank: 333-480-8/.410/129th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 16.6/128th/14th SBC
Rushing: 163.1/61st/7th
Passing: 160.4/122nd/14th
Total: 323.5/116th/13th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 31.9/117th/11th
Rushing: 162.6/85th/6th
Passing: 222.3/72nd/5th
Total: 384.8/81st/6th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 5/3
Schedule:
Sep 5 @ Mississippi State
Sep 12 @ UAB
Sep 19 SE La
Sep 26 FAU
Oct 3 South Alabama
Oct 17 La Tech
Oct 24 @ Troy
Oct 31 Southern Miss
Nov 7 @ Arkansas State
Nov 12 Louisiana
Nov 21 @ Appalachian State
Nov 29 Marshall
Notes: The Warhawks have only appeared in a bowl once, in 2012, which makes that the 2nd longest bowl drought, and they’ve never won a bowl; ULM hasn’t had a winning record since they were 8-5 in 2012, though they were 6-6 in 2013 and 2018; the Warhawks have lost 8 games in a row, tied for the 7th longest current streak; 333 all-time wins puts ULM in 122nd place, 22 ahead of Liberty, and 38 behind Kent State; ULM had a -10 TO margin,122nd in FBS and next to last in the SBC; QB could be returning starter Aiden Armenta (1,629 yds, 58.5%, 12 TDs, 8 INTs), but Houston transfer Austn Carlisle might get a look; K is likely Cal transfer Abram Murray (4-6 FG, long of 49), and punter Makenzie Ryan (38.8 avg, 35.0 net) returns; only 1 of their 9 losses (30-27 to Louisiana in OT) was by less than 12 points; offense was held to single digits in 4 games (shut out by Alabama), and held to 21 or less 8 times, all of them losses; defense allowed 30+ points 7 times; ULM has only had 1 winning season (2012 under HC Todd Berry) since they were 9-3 in 1993 in their last year in I-AA, and in their last year under HC Dave Roberts.
Outlook: The Warhawks only have 3 wins total in the last 6 games of seasons since 2020 (3-33 record), 2 of them in 2022, but are 8-4 in their 1st 6 games the last 2 seasons. They had a decent year in their 1st year under HC Vincent, finishing 5-7 in 2024, but took a step back last year to 3-9. The Warhawks have a chance to once again get off to a fast start, as they play at UAB following a game at Miss State, and then 2 home games with FCS SE La and FAU. At best, they could be 3-1, but their problem has always been sustaining success. In the Sun Belt, they get App State and Marshall as crossover games, which happen to fall in the last 2 games. I have no idea why rival Louisiana, which has traditionally been their closer, isn’t there this year. I think we’re looking at another 2-4 win season, but I don’t think the administration pulls the trigger on a coaching change. I think they give Vincent more time to build the program.
133- Kent State Golden Flashes 5-7/4-4 (tied for 6th)
Coach: Mark Carney (2nd year, 2nd overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 5-7/.417/101st
3-year record/rank: 6-30/.167/135th
6-year record/rank: 21-45/.318/124th
10-year record/rank: 35-80/.304/125th
Last League Title: 1972 MAC/ 2021 MAC East
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 4 years bowl-less/2021/2021
Bowl Record/Rank: 1-3/.250/129th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: Never (since 1962); best season was 11-3 in 2012 under HC Darrell Hazell (also 9-2 in 1973 under Don James)
Last Winless Season: 2024/0-12 under HC Kenni Burns
All-time Record/Rank: 371-614-28/.380/133rd
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 21.3/113th/9th in MAC
Rushing: 97.3/129th/11th
Passing: 197.1/T97th/6th
Total: 294.3/T126th/T9th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 33.6/126th/11th
Rushing: 191.4/119th/10th
Passing: 236.0/101st/11th
Total: 427.4/123rd/11th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 6/4
Schedule:
Sep 5 @ South Carolina
Sep 12 Wofford
Sep 19 @ Ohio State
Sep 26 Ball State
Oct 3 Ohio
Oct 10 @ Western Michigan
Oct 17 @ USF
Oct 24 Akron
Oct 30 @ Sacramento State
Nov 10 @ Bowling Green
Nov 17 Miami, Oh
Nov 24 @ Eastern Michigan
Notes: The Golden Flash are tied for the 8th longest bowl drought as their last bowl was in 2021; KSU plays their last 3 games on Tuesdays, has 4 non-Saturday games, and only 5 home games; 371 wins puts the Golden Flashes in 121st place, 38 ahead of ULM, and 19 behind James Madison; KSU has the fewest wins of any MAC team, and the lowest all-time win percentage in the MAC; Kent State had a -3 TO margin, tied for 88th; QB Dru DeShields (2,030 yds, 57%, 18 TDs, 3 INTs) returns; Da’Realyst Clark (great name!) had 2 KOR for TDs and was 1st team All-MAC, and Wayne Harris had a PR TD and a MAC-best 13.2 avg, and both return; Kent State has only had 5 winning seasons since 1986: 7-4 in 1987 under HC Glen Mason, 6-5 in 2001 under HC Dean Peas, 11-3 in 2012 under HC Darell Hazell, and 7-6 and 3-1 in 2019/2020 under HC Sean Lewis; Conversely, they’ve had 17 seasons during that time period where they won 2 or fewer games, including 4 winless seasons; both K Sean Leonard and P Jake Stoeckel will be new; KSU finished the season on a 4-3 “run”, alternating wins and losses; 4 of 5 wins were by 7 points or less (including by 4 over an FCS squad), but 2 of their 7 losses were by a combined 7 points; offense was held to 21 points or less 7 times, including 14 or less 5 times, with one shutout; defense allowed 7 opponents to score 31+ points, with Texas Tech and FSU scoring in the 60s.
Outlook: Kent State has an absolutely brutal OOC slate: other than FCS Wofford, they play at South Carolina, at Ohio State, and at USF, teams that went a combined 25-14 last year. The team improved in just about every category in HC Mark Carney’s 1st year, but the biggest jump was going from 0-12 to 5-7. The problem is that even if they repeat their 4-4 MAC record, they are likely to finish 5-7 again, as the best they can hope from their OOC games is 1-3. Though they miss Toledo, the Flashes play most of the other teams expected to challenge for conference supremacy. I see another 5-7 season, flirting with bowl eligibility, but also a possibility of dropping to 4-8.
132- Ball State Cardinals 4-8/3-5 (tied for 9th)
Coach: Mike Uremovich (2nd year, 2nd overall FBS)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 4-8/.333/109th
3-year record/rank: 11-25/.306/120th
6-year record/rank: 29-40/.420/102nd
10-year record/rank: 44-73/.376/115th
Last League Title: 2020 MAC
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 4 years bowl-less/2021/2020
Bowl Record/Rank: 1-8/.111/132nd
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 1965/9-0-1 under HC Ray Louthen
Last Winless Season: 1999/0-11 under HC Bill Lynch
All-time Record/Rank: 483-473-32/.505/93rd
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 15.8/130th/11th MAC
Rushing: 131.8/98th/10th
Passing: 139.9/128th/12th
Total: 271.7/132nd/11th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 29.8/102nd/9th
Rushing: 178.8/106th/9th
Passing: 226.8/83rd/9th
Total: 405.7/102nd/8th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 3/4
Schedule:
Sep 5 @ Ohio State
Sep 12 Stony Brook
Sep 19 @ Liberty
Sep 26 @ Kent State
Oct 3 Toledo
Oct 10 @ Northwestern
Oct 17 @ Bowling Green
Oct 24 Sacramento State
Nov 4 @ UMass
Nov 11 Buffalo
Nov 17 @ Ohio
Nov 28 Central Michigan
Notes: The Cardinals haven’t been to a bowl since 2021, tied for 8th for the longest bowl drought; BSU has only 5 home games; defense made tremendous improvement from 2024, allowing about 11 ppg less in 2025; Ball State is dangerously close to falling below .500 all-time, as they are a mere 10 games over; the Cardinals have had 5 straight losing seasons, and have a losing record in 11 of the last 12 years (7-1 in 2020 under HC Mike Neu); 483 all-time wins places Ball State in 113th place, 6 ahead of East Carolina and 3 behind Houston; BSU had a -3 TO margin, tied for 88th; QB will be either SMU/Texas State transfer Keldric Luster or Wake Forest/Division II Concord (W.Va) transfer Tyler Mizzell (2,889 yds, 57%, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 377 rushing, 5.2 ypc at Concord); Carson Holmer (3-7 FGs, long of 23, 14-14 PAT) will be K, and Cole Stumbaugh the P; OL allowed 49 sacks last season; BSU was 4-1 at home last year, but 0-7 on the road, losing by an average of 26 ppg; the Cardinals have lost their last 10 games away from home, and 20 of their last 22 outside of Muncie; 3 of 4 wins were by 6 points or less, but only 1 of 8 losses were by less than 14 points.
Outlook: 1st year HC Mike Uremovich saw a 1-game improvement from 2024, but can he continue that improvement? Ball State hasn’t won as many as 7 games since they were 7-1 in 2020, and they haven’t had back-to-back winning seasons since they were 9-4/10-3 in 2012-13 under HC Pete Lembo (bowl losses both years). As usual, the Cardinals play 2 P4 teams (as they have 2 of the last 3 seasons), but this year they are both from the Big Ten: Ohio State and Northwestern, who went a combined 19-8 last season, and both games are on the road. Their other OOC opponents are FCS Stony Brook and at Liberty, so it’s possible they could be 2-2 heading into October, but 1-3 is more likely. That means they must go 5-3 in the MAC to qualify for a bowl, something they’ve done only once (5-1 in 2020) since 2013. However, they play all of the expected “bottom-feeders”, so the potential is there to get to 5 wins overall, and with an upset, maybe they can get back to a bowl.
131- UTEP Miners 2-10/1-7 (tied for 11th)
Coach: Scotty Walden (4th year, 4th overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 6-22/.214/121st
3-year record/rank: 8-28/.222/132nd
6-year record/rank: 23-46/.333/122nd
10-year record/rank: 29-88/.247/129th
Last League Title: 2000 WAC co-champs/1956 Border Conference
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 4 years bowl-less/2021/1967
Bowl Record/Rank: 5-10/.333/T117th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: Never (since 1914); best seasons were 9-2 in 1956 under HC Mike Brumbelow and 10-3 in 1988 under HC Bob Stull
Last Winless Season: 2017/0-12 under HC’s Sean Kugler (0-5) and Mike Price (0-7)
All-time Record/Rank: 415-653-30/.392/132nd
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 23.3/97th/5th MWC
Rushing: 115.6/116th/8th
Passing: 216.3/83rd/4th
Total: 331.8/110th/6th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 30.4/T109th/8th
Rushing: 169.5/94th/7th
Passing: 221.8/71st/5th
Total: 391.3/86th/6th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 2/4
Schedule:
Sep 5 @ Oklahoma
Sep 12 Texas Southern
Sep 19 @ Michigan
Sep 26 Oregon State
Oct 3 @ New Mexico
Oct 10 Nevada
Oct 17 San Jose State
Oct 31 @ North Dakota State
Nov 7 Hawaii
Nov 14 Wyoming
Nov 21 @ Air Force
Nov 28 @ Northern Illinois
Notes: The Miners last won a bowl in 1967, losing all 7 appearances since then, the longest bowl win drought in FBS; the Miners haven’t had back-to-back winning seasons since 2004-05 under HC Mike Price, and have only done so twice since 1987 (‘87-88 under HC Bob Stull); UTEP is tied for the 8th longest bowl-less streak at 4 (last bowl in 2021); the Miners have had only 2 winning seasons since 2005, and both of those were 7-6, in 2014 under HC Sean Kugler and in 2021 under HC Dana Dimel; 415 wins puts UTEP in 119th place, 25 ahead of JMU, and 7 behind Buffalo; the Miners have the lowest all-time winning percentage of any team in the Mountain West; UTEP had a -12 TO margin, tied for 127th; QB will be Incarnate Word transfer E.J. Colson (2,142 yds, 70.9%, 16 TDs, 4 INTs, 287 yds rushing); K will be UT Martin transfer (and FCS All-American) Cade Hechter (15-17 FGs, long of 41), P will be FCS Gardner Webb transfer Brady Braun (48.1 avg/36.7 net); offense averaged just 3.8 ypc rushing; defense was #8 in FBS in TFLs last season; UTEP is on a 5-game losing streak, and hasn’t had more than 2 FBS wins in a season since 2022, when they had 5; the Miners have lost 5 consecutive home games; defense allowed 30+ in 7 games, giving up 61 to new FBS team Delaware in their final game; 3 losses were by 6 points or less, for a combined 12 points in those 3 losses.
Outlook: UTEP joins the new-look Mountain West. This really won’t be that new for the Miners, as they were members of the WAC (from which the MWC split off in 1998) from 1968-2004, and they will be closer to more teams on their schedule than they were in CUSA. If the Miners can survive their 1st 5 games- at Oklahoma, FCS Texas Southern at home, at Michigan, Oregon State at home, and at New Mexico, then they could be OK the rest of the season. They avoid conference heavyweight UNLV, which is a plus, but they will still need to go 5-2 over their final 7 games to make it to a bowl, which seems like a long shot to me. The Miners could be greatly improved on the field and still finish with just 3 or 4 wins.
130- Rice Owls 5-8/2-6 (tied for 11th)
Coach: Scott Abell (2nd year, 2nd overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 5-8/.385/103rd
3-year record/rank: 15-23/.395/115th
6-year record/rank: 26-42/.382/112th
10-year record/rank: 35-82/.299/127th
Last League Title: 2013 CUSA
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year/2025/2014
Bowl Record/Rank: 7-8/.467/T77th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: Never (since 1914); best seasons were 10-1 in 1949 under HC Jess Neely and 9-1-1 in 1934 under HC Jimmy Kitts
Last Winless Season: 1988/0-11 under HC Jerry Berndt
All-time Record/Rank: 501-668-32/.430/124th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 19.1/119th/13th AAC
Rushing: 204.8/15th/4th
Passing: 97.6/133rd/13th
Total: 302.4/124th/13th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 32.9/122nd/11th
Rushing: 163.7/86th/8th
Passing: 240.2/105th/11th
Total: 403.8/100th/11th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 3/3
Schedule:
Sep 5 Houston Christian
Sep 12 @ Notre Dame
Sep 19 Western Michigan
Sep 26 @ Fresno State
Oct 3 UTSA
Oct 10 @ East Carolina
Oct 17 Tulsa
Oct 24 @ FAU
Nov 7 @ North Texas
Nov 14 Tulane
Nov 19 @ Temple
Nov 28 Army
Notes: The Owls haven't won a bowl game since 2014, tied for the 5th longest bowl win drought, losing 2 in a row since then; Rice has 501 wins all-time, achieving their 500th victory with a 2 OT thriller over UConn; 501 wins places the Owls in 110th, 2 ahead of EMU and just 1 behind Temple; Rice had a -4 TO margin, tied for 98th; QB will likely be Miami/UCF transfer Jacurri Brown (career 878 yds, 823 rushing in 5 starts); defense had only 7 takeaways last season, and allowed opponents to score on all 41 red-zone trips (30 TDs, 11 FGs); K Enock Gota (10-13 FGs, long of 49) returns, and P will be Kent St transfer Charlie Durkin (41.4 avg, 34.5 net); the Owls have lost 3 in a row, including the bowl, by a combined 149-37; offense was held to 14 or less in 6 games, while the defense held 5 opponents to 21 or less.
Outlook: The Owls have been to 3 bowls in the last 4 years, but none of the seasons ended with a winning record, and Rice last had a winning season in 2014 when they were 8-5 under former HC David Bailiff. This year, they again have a rough OOC schedule, as after the obligatory FCS team, they face Notre Dame, WMU, and Fresno State, with only the Broncos in Houston. In the American Conference, they play most of the contenders while avoiding top contender Navy and most of the teams expected to finish near the bottom. What this means is that they will need an upset or 2 to get back to their 4th bowl in the last 5 years. Expect anywhere from 3-6 wins, with 4 or 5 the most likely.
129- Akron Zips 5-7/4-4 (tied 6th)
Coach: Joe Moorhead (5th year, 7th overall FBS)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 27-47/.365/107th
3-year record/rank: 11-25/.306/120th
6-year record/rank: 16-50/.242/130th
10-year record/rank: 32-84/.276/128th
Last League Title: 2005 (MAC)
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 8 years bowl-less/2017/2015
Bowl Record/Rank: 1-2/.333/T117th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season:1-0 in 1894 under HC John Heisman; next best records are 10-3 in 1976 under HC Jim Dennison, 9-1 in 1969 under HC Gordon Larson, and 9-1 in 1929 under HC Red Blair
Last Winless Season: 2019/0-12 under HC Tom Arth
All-time Record/Rank: 534-608-36 /.469/113th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 22.3 /106th/8th MAC
Rushing: 134.5/94th/8th
Passing: 219.0/77th/4th
Total: 353.5/92nd/6th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 27.4 /86th/7th
Rushing: 155.3 / 77th/7th
Passing: 229.2 /87th/10th
Total: 384.4 /80th/7th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 7/4
Schedule:
Sep 3 @ Wake Forest
Sep 12 Robert Morris
Sep 19 @ Minnesota
Sep 26 UNLV
Oct 3 @ Central Michigan
Oct 10 Eastern Michigan
Oct 17 @ Miami Ohio
Oct 24 @ Kent State
Nov 3 Ohio
Nov 10 Western Michigan
Nov 18 @ UMass
Nov 27 Buffalo
Notes: The Zips have the 3rd longest bowl drought at 8 years (last bowl in 2017); they are also tied for the 5th longest bowl win drought, with their last bowl win in 2015; 5 games are on non-Saturdays, including each of their last 4; Akron is tied with Indiana at 534 all-time wins, good enough for 101st place 7 ahead of SJSU, and 5 behind UConn; Akron had a +3 TO margin, tied for 47th; QB will be Miami/North Texas transfer Reese Poffenbarger (6,669 yds in 2 years at FCS Albany); K Matthew Schramm (12-13 FGs, 4-5 from 40+, long of 48) and P Joseph Castle (42.9 avg/35.9 net) both return; Akron hasn’t had a winning season since 2015, but did have a winning mAC record (6-2) in 2017, both of these under HC Terry Bowden; Akron has won 3 of their last 4 games; after being shut out in each of their 1st 2 games last year, they scored at least 24 in 7 of their final 10 games; defense held 5 foes to 16 points or less.
Outlook: After being ineligible for a bowl last year due to their low Academic Progress Rate, the Zips have received a waiver for this year and will be eligible for a bowl again. As usual, the OOC slate is brutal, as they play at Wake Forest and Minnesota, and host UNLV and an FCS squad. In the MAC, they play 6 teams expected to be in the top seven, and only 2 expected to be in the bottom half. It’s possible this team can get to 6 wins and bowl eligibility, but it won’t be easy. It looks like another 4 or 5 win campaign for the Zips, matching their last 2 years. Would that be enough to keep HC Joe Moorhead in Akron?
128- Nevada Wolf Pack 3-9/2-6 (tied for 9th)
Coach: Jeff Choate (3rd year, 3rd overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 6-19/.240/120th
3-year record/rank: 8-29/.219/133rd
6-year record/rank: 25-46/.352/120th
10-year record/rank: 48-73/.397/108th
Last League Title: 2010 WAC
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 4 years bowl-less/2021/2020
Bowl Record/Rank: 7-12/.368/114th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: Never (since 1946); best season was 13-1 in 2010 under HC Chris Ault
Last Winless Season: Never; worst season was 1-9 in 1950 under HC Joseph Sheeketski
All-time Record/Rank: 583-540-33/.519/82nd
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 17.6/126th/7th MWC
Rushing: 153.5/74th/4th
Passing: 148.7/125th/7th
Total: 302.2/125th/8th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 27.5/87th/5th
Rushing: 149.6/70th/3rd
Passing: 220.3/68th/4th
Total: 369.8/63rd/5th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 3/3
Schedule:
Sep 5 WKU
Sep 12 Montana State
Sep 19 @ Middle Tennessee
Sep 26 Air Force
Oct 10 @ UTEP
Oct 17 @ North Dakota State
Oct 24 San Jose State
Oct 31 @ UCLA
Nov 7 New Mexico
Nov 14 @ Northern Illinois
Nov 21 Hawaii
Nov 29 @ UNLV
Notes: The Wolf Pack are tied for the 8th longest bowl drought at 4 years; 583 all-time wins puts them at a tie for 84th with Sam Houston and Utah State, just 1 ahead of UMass, and 2 behind Iowa State, Kansas State, and Tulane at #81; QB Carter Jones (1,002 yds, 64%, 6 TDs, 8 INTs) returns, but UCLA transfer Luke Duncan (21-34 for 235 yds in a start vs Ohio State last year) is the likely starter; K Joe McFadden (19-25 FGs, long of 50) returns, but P Ewan Baulch will be new; Nevada hasn’t missed a bowl for 5 straight seasons since going bowl-less for 8 in a row from 1997-2004 under HCs Jeff Tisdel and Chris Tormey; Nevada was -12 in TO margin last season, tied for 127th in FBS; offense had 27 turnovers, 2nd most in FBS; the Wolf Pack have won 2 of their last 3 games; 2 of their 3 wins were by a combined 10 points, while 3 losses were by a combined 6 points; 15 of their last 25 games (all under HC Choate) have been decided by 7 points or less (4 wins, 11 losses); offense scored 20 or more just 3 times, as they were held to 14 or less points on 6 occasions; defense allowed 42+ points 4 times.
Outlook: Nevada has been in a slump for the last 4 years, with a combined 10-39 record, the last 2 of these under the current HC. It’s time for the Wolf Pack to take a step forward and win more than 3 games in a season. The schedule is far from daunting, as the OOC slate includes WKU and FCS Montana State at home (lost 31-16 at WKU last year), and Middle Tennessee and UCLA on the road (lost by 1 to MTSU last year at home), with the FBS foes a combined 15-22 last season. In the new-look Mountain West, they avoid Wyoming, which means they play all of the contenders. They have an outside shot at getting to 6 wins and bowl eligibility, but only if their offense improves dramatically, they cut down on turnovers, and the defense does at least as well as last year (if not better). I think their ceiling is 5 wins.
127- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 3-9/2-6 (tied for 9th)
Coach: Derek Mason (3rd year, 10th overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 33-72/.314/117th
3-year record/rank: 10-26/.278/128th
6-year record/rank: 28-43/.394/110th
10-year record/rank: 55-68/.447/92nd
Last League Title: 2006 Sun Belt co-champs/1992 Ohio Valley Conference/2018 CUSA East
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 3 years bowl-less/2022/2022
Bowl Record/Rank: 6-9/.400/T103rd
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 1965/10-0 under HC Charles M. Murphy (led team to 4 undefeated seasons)
Last Winless Season: 1911/0-2 under HC L.T. Weber
All-time Record/Rank: 613-481-28/.559/56th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 22.4/105th/8th CUSA
Rushing: 105.5/119th/9th
Passing: 266.1/23rd/3rd
Total: 371.6/79th/8th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 30.9/114th/8th
Rushing: 143.1/57th/1st
Passing: 256.2/122nd/9th
Total: 399.3/94th/9th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 2/4
Schedule:
Sep 5 Murray State
Sep 12 @ Marshall
Sep 19 Nevada
Sep 26 @ Jacksonville State
Oct 3 @ Kansas
Oct 13 Delaware
Oct 20 @ FIU
Oct 28 Kennesaw State
Nov 7 WKU
Nov 14 @ Liberty
Nov 21 @ Sam Houston
Nov 28 New Mexico State
Notes: Middle Tennessee has 3 straight mid-week games in October; the Blue Raiders had a +2 TO margin, tied for 55th; 613 wins ranks 72nd (tied with WMU), 8 ahead of SDSU and 2 behind Kansas (who they play in game 5- could that be for 71st place all-time?); QB Roman Gagliano (1.005 yds, 57.8%, 7 TDs, 0 INTs, 166 yds rushing, 4.3 ypc in 5 games) returns; OL allowed 30 sacks for 224 yds lost; K Dominic Bourgeois is a transfer from Div III Susquehanna (20-20 FGs!), but P Ashton Logan (44.7 avg/40.3 net) returns; MTSU has won 2 straight games; offense scored 26+ in 5 of their last 6 games after being held to 20 or less in 5 of their 1st 6; defense allowed 34+ in 3 of their 1st 4, but only twice more the last 8 games; 3 consecutive years without a bowl is their longest since 7 straight from 1999-2005, their 1st 7 years in the FBS, all under HC Andy McCollum (6-5 in 2000 and 8-3 in 2001); last winning record in CUSA was 7-1 in 2018 (8-6 overall) under HC Rick Stockstill; HC Derek Mason is only the 4th HC in Murfreesboro since 1978 (Boots Donnelly 1979-98, Andy McCollum 1999-2005, Rick Stockstill 2006-2023, Derek Mason 2024-Present).
Outlook: This feels like a pivotal year for HC Mason, as he’s had 2 straight 3-9 seasons in a row. Their schedule this year is very close to last year’s, with an opener vs an FCS squad, Nevada at home and Marshall on the road- switched from last year, with a win at Nevada, and a game at Kansas instead of at Wisconsin. They went 1-3 in OOC games last year, and that needs to be at least 2-2 this year if they hope to make it back to a bowl. In CUSA, they get JSU, FIU, and Liberty on the road and miss Missouri State, so their chances of doing any better than 4-4 is pretty slim. This looks like another 3-win season, with 4 or 5 wins seeming like the top end. I’m not sure anything short of 5 wins can save Mason’s job, if he even lasts the season, but maybe the Blue Raiders will be patient.
126- Sacramento State Hornets 7-5/5-3 in FCS Big Sky Conference
Coach: Alonzo Carter (1st year, 1st overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 0-0/.000/126th
3-year record/rank: 18-19/.486/FCS
6-year record/rank: 39-23/.629/FCS
10-year record/rank: 59-48/.551/FCS
Last League Title: 2022 Big Sky
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: N/A
Bowl Record/Rank: N/A
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: Never/Best season was 12-1 in 2022 under HC Troy Taylor
Last Winless Season: 1977/0-10-1 under HC Puny Wilson
All-time Record/Rank: 330-414-8/.444/N/A
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 33.8/T17th FCS
Rushing: 262.6/2nd
Passing: 163.0/111th
Total: 425.6/21st
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 26.3/60th
Rushing: 150.0/56th
Passing: 216.6/66th
Total: 366.6/57th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 2/5
Schedule:
Aug 29 @ Eastern Michigan
Sep 5 Mississippi Valley State
Sep 12 @ Fresno State
Sep 19 North Dakota State
Sep 26 UMass
Oct 10 @ Bowling Green
Oct 17 Ohio
Oct 24 @ Ball State
Oct 30 Kent State
Nov 4 Toledo
Nov 11 @ Central Michigan
Nov 28 @ Hawaii
Notes: The Hornets are making their 1st appearance in the FBS and in the MAC (obviously!), but due to a new rule, will be eligible for a bowl this 1st year; Sac State was +2 in TU margin in the FCS last year; 330 all-time wins would rank them just 3 behind # 122 ULM, and ahead of #123 Liberty; 1st MAC game will be their opener at EMU, and their 1st MAC home game comes against UMass in game #5; QB will be Carson Conklin (2,876 yds, 62%, 28 TDs, 8 INTs in 2024 here), who began his career here and now returns after a year at Fresno State; K Grant Meadors (12-15 FGs, long of 42) returns, but P Jay Brockhaus (40.7 avg/38.7 net at NAIA Southeastern University in Florida) will be new; SS has won 3 of their last 4 games, and 5 of their last 7; offense scored 35+ points 7 times, while the defense held 5 foes to 20 points or less; the Hornets will be the 1st team to complete their conference schedule, as they play at CMU on Nov 11 (next earliest in Nov 21).
Outlook: Sacramento State seems like a really odd fit as a member of the MAC- the Pac 12 or Mountain West would be a better fit geographically. Recent teams that have moved up to the FBS level have achieved some success, some right away, and some in year 2 or later (and some not at all, yet). This team was put together with the idea of competing as an FCS Independent before the invitation to join the MAC came last winter (after the transfer portal closed and after signing day), so it may be a rough year for the Hornets. Having said that, competitively, they may fit into the MAC well. In OOC games, they host fellow newcomer NDSU and an FCS team, while traveling to Fresno state and Hawaii (in their final game). In the MAC, they do miss some of the better teams, but I still see no more than a win or 2, with 3 or 4 being the absolute most. A big indication of how this season could go will be games against FCS MVSU in game 2 and UMass in game 5. Win those, and suddenly games at BGSU and Ball State, and at home vs Kent State, don’t seem quite as daunting. But they’ll need to have a good showing at EMU in their opener to really look like a threat to flirt with a bowl.
125- Oregon State Beavers 2-10/1-1 (tied for 1st)
Coach: JaMarcus Shephard (1st year, 1st overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 0-0/.000/126th
3-year record/rank: 15-22/.405/108th
6-year record/rank: 34-36/.486/77th
10-year record/rank: 46-72/.389/110th
Last League Title: 2000 Pac 10 co-champs/1956 Pacific Coast Conference champions (also 2025 Pac 2 champs)
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 2 years bowl-less/2023/2022
Bowl Record/Rank: 10-8/.556/T30th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 1914/7-0-2 under HC EJ Stewart
Last Winless Season: 1980/0-11 under HC Joe Avezzano
All-time Record/Rank: 571-646-50/.470/110th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 18.2/123rd/8th Pac 12
Rushing: 123.9/109th/7th
Passing: 225.8/64th/4th
Total: 349.8/93rd/6th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 29.4/97th/7th
Rushing: 157.4/80th/4th
Passing: 222.4/T73rd/7th
Total: 379.8/75th/5th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 5/5
Schedule:
Sep 5 @ Houston
Sep 12 Texas Tech
Sep 19 Montana
Sep 26 @ UTEP
Oct 3 @ Colorado State
Oct 10 San Diego State
Oct 17 Washington State
Oct 31 @ Fresno State
Nov 7 Texas State
Nov 14 @ Boise State
Nov 21 Utah State
Nov 28 @ Washington State (Flex)
Notes: The Beavers had a -11 TO margin, tied for 123rd; 571 wins ranks OSU in 92nd, just 3 ahead of Louisville, and only 1 behind Wyoming- and 2 behind BGSU; QB Maalik Murphy (1,805 yds, 58.1%, 9 TDs, 8 INTs) returns, but WMU transfer Brady Jones (4,458 yds, 64%, 44 TDs at JUCO in ‘23, 136 yds, 47.5%, 1 TD, 3 INTs last year in 3 starts) or FCS Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson (3,596 yds, 66%, 34 TDs, 11 INTs) could win the job this summer, as no decision has yet been made on a starter; K Jaydn Oh (2-5 FGs, long of 32 last 2 years at Syracuse) is new, but P AJ Winsor (44.7 avg/32.5 net) returns; HC Shephard is the 5th OSU HC since the start of the 2023 season; new DC is former HC at SJSU (2010-12), Colorado (2013-18), and FIU (2022-24); Oregon State is on a 3-game losing streak, and has lost 16 of their last 19 games, and their last 9 games away from Reser Stadium in Corvallis; defense has allowed 27+ points in 12 of their last 15 games, and 16 of their last 20; offense has been held to 18 points or less in 12 of their last 17 games; this is the 1st year of the Flex schedule in the Pac 12- the conference will determine the matchup the last weekend to create high-profile games, and these will not count in the conference standings, with the caveat that home and away is fixed (so 2 teams scheduled to be at home cannot play each other).
Outlook: The Beavers are in a tough spot. They should be one of the best teams in the newly reconstituted Pac 12 (which has only 8 teams- why didn’t they go back to the old Pac-8 name?), but their coaching turnover over the last few years has led to lots of turmoil. They started last season 0-7, but every loss was to a team that played in a bowl, and 2 of those were in the CFP. This year they play at Houston and UTEP while hosting Texas Tech and FCS Montana, which means no Oregon for the 1st time since 1944 (no team due to WWII). OSU should do no worse than 2-2 in OOC games, so if they can get to 4-4 in the conference, they could be back in a bowl. I see at least 4-5 wins, and possibly 6, depending on the flex game.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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