Week 12 Impressions and Other Things
Once again, I didn't get much of a chance to watch a lot of football this weekend, as I had a funeral to attend out of town on Saturday. However, I did get to listen to the first half of the Georgia game, and watch most of the second half. I was very impressed with how the Dawgs rebounded from their loss last week, and pleased that Auburn didn't beat them twice, as they say. Now, if they can just get past those pesky Yellow Jackets! Tech surprisingly got blown out by Duke yesterday, but you can bet they'll be ready for the Bulldogs come Saturday.
For the most part, the games were rather uneventful, though there were a few surprising results. Texas finally got a quality win by winning on the road at West Virginia. Fresno State solidified its season with a road win over a good Wyoming team. BYU sunk to a new low by losing to UMass at home, which gives the Minutemen 4 wins in their last 5 games. Georgia Southern finally won, which isn't all that surprising (since I predicted them to), but the manner in which they won WAS surprising: 56-0! Iowa losing to Purdue shocked me, as the Hawkeyes are generally tough to beat at home. Kansas St went on the road to upset Oklahoma St, and gained bowl eligibility. Houston and Marshall are both teams that have baffled me all year, as I picked both to win this week, but they lost to Tulane and UTSA, respectively. Coastal Carolina going on the road to beat a semi-decent Idaho team was a real shocker. And Arizona getting blown out by Oregon was not a result I expected.
Here are how the conference races are shaking out (alphabetically):
AAC: The winner of the USF at UCF game on Friday will face Memphis in the Championship game on Dec 2 at 12:00 on ABC. The location is yet to be determined. If I had to guess, I would think it would be at UCF if they win, and at Memphis if USF wins, though don't quote me on that. Assuming Memphis wins their game this weekend against East Carolina, the winner of the championship would have a great chance to snag one of the New Year's Six bowl berths.
ACC: Miami will face Clemson on Dec 2 at 8:00 on ABC in Charlotte. Assuming Clemson beats South Carolina and Miami beats Pittsburgh, the winner of this game should be guaranteed a slot in the four-team playoff. It's possible, if Clemson wins the ACCCG, for both teams to make it, depending on results elsewhere.
BIG12: Oklahoma has already locked up a spot in the (re)inaugural championship game (a truly dumb idea...). If TCU beats Baylor on Friday, then they will be the opponent. If TCU loses, then all heck could break loose! (Not really; I just wanted to say "heck".) Here are the scenarios (as I see them) if TCU loses:
Texas beats Texas Tech, Okla St beats Kansas, W Va beats Okla, Iowa St beats Kansas St: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St wins, W Va wins, Iowa St loses: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St wins, W Va loses, Iowa St wins: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St loses, W Va wins, Iowa St wins: TCU
Texas loses, Okla St wins, W Va wins, Iowa St wins: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St wins, W Va loses, Iowa St loses: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St loses, W Va wins, Iowa St loses: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St loses: W Va loses, Iowa St wins: 3-way tie; I have no idea...
Texas loses; Okla St wins, W Va wins, Iowa St loses: TCU
Texas loses, Okla St wins, W Va loses, Iowa St wins: 3 way tie; I have no idea...
Texas loses, Okla St loses, W Va wins, Iowa St wins: 3-way tie; I have no idea...
Texas wins, all others lose: TCU
Okla St wins, all others lose: TCU
W Va wins, all others lose: TCU
Iowa St wins, all other lose: Iowa State
As you can see, the odds favor TCU. But this is the BIG12, where the bizarre happens. The game will be played on Dec 2 at 12:30 in Arlington. Oklahoma has the best chance of making the playoff.
BIG10: The teams are set, as Ohio State will face Wisconsin on Dec 2 at 8:00 pm in Indianapolis on FOX. The winner of this game has a great chance to make the playoff.
CUSA: North Texas will face Florida Atlantic (FAU) in Boca Raton on Dec 2 at 12:00 noon on ESPN. The winner could finish 10-3, but will not qualify for the New Year's Six berth, unless total chaos breaks out.
MAC: Both divisions are still up for grabs. If Akron defeats Kent St on Tuesday, they will wrap up the East title. If the Zips get upset, then Ohio can clinch with a win at Buffalo on Friday. In the West, Toledo will gain a berth in the championship game by defeating Western Michigan on Friday. If they lose, Northern Illinois will clinch if they win at Central Michigan, also on Friday. The Championship game will be Dec 2 at 12 noon in Detroit on ESPN. Toledo has a slim chance at the New Year's Six bowl.
MWC: This is a very strange case, as the matchup is set: Boise St vs. Fresno St on Dec 2 at 7:45 on ESPN. However, these 2 teams play in Fresno this weekend. If Fresno State wins, they will play in Fresno again. If Boise St wins, they will play in Boise on the 2nd. Weird... Boise State has the best chance at the New Year's Six bowl berth, but Fresno State could sneak in with 2 wins over Boise St.
PAC12: USC has already clinched the South, as their regular season is over. Washington State will win the North if they defeat Washington on Saturday. If Washington wins, Stanford will win the North. The Championship game will be played on Friday, Dec 1 at 8:00 pm in Santa Clara, and will be on ESPN. The winner of this game would need a lot to fall their way to make the playoff.
SEC: Georgia clinched the East 2 weeks ago. The winner of the Alabama at Auburn game this Saturday will determine the West champion. The SECCG will be played in Atlanta at 4:00 pm on Dec 2 on CBS. The winner of this game is likely to make the playoff. However, there is at least one scenario where this might not be the case: a Georgia win paired with a loss to Georgia Tech. If Auburn defeats Alabama this weekend, the committee could take a one-loss, non-champion Alabama over a 2-loss Georgia or Auburn. They might even take the Tide over a one-loss Georgia team, due to the Dawgs 23-point loss to Auburn last weekend.
Sun Belt: This is the only conference without a championship game, so most of the teams have 2 games left. Currently, there is a 4-way tie atop the conference: Troy, Arkansas State, Appalachian State, and Georgia State, all at 5-1. Louisiana is the only 4-2 team, with La-Monroe the only team at 4-3. There are way too many scenarios to parse out here. Regardless, it would take a moderate miracle for one of these teams to get the New Year's Six berth.
Here are the teams eligible for a bowl berth (78 slots available) (69):
UCF
USF
Memphis
Houston
Navy
SMU
Clemson
NC St
Wake Forest
Louisville
Boston College
Miami
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Oklahoma
TCU
Okla St
Texas
W Va
Iowa St
Kansas St
Ohio St
Penn St
Mich St
Michigan
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Iowa
FAU
FIU
Marshall
WKU
N Texas
UAB
S Miss
UTSA
Notre Dame
Army
Akron
Ohio
Toledo
N Illinois
C Mich
W Mich
Boise St
Wyoming
Colo St
Utah St
Fresno St
San Diego St
Stanford
Washington
Washington St
Oregon
USC
Arizona
Ariz St
Georgia
S Carolina Kentucky
Missouri
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Miss St
Texas A&M
Troy
Ark St
Ga St
App St
Need one or more wins to qualify (21):
Temple (at Tulsa)
Tulane (at SMU)
FSU (at Florida, La-Monroe)
Ga Tech (Georgia)
Duke (at Wake Forest)
Texas Tech (at Texas)
Indiana (at Purdue)
Purdue (Indiana)
Minnesota (Wisconsin)
Mid Tenn (ODU)
ODU (at Mid Tenn)
La Tech (UTSA)
Buffalo (Ohio)
UNLV (at Nevada)
Cal (at UCLA)
UCLA (Cal)
Colorado (at Utah)
Utah (Colorado)
Ole Miss (at Miss St)
Louisiana (Ga Southern, at App St)
New Mexico St (Idaho, S Alabama)
Can only qualify with a win(s) and a waiver (15):
Syracuse
Pitt
Rutgers
Maryland
Nebraska
UMass
Miami
E Mich
Air Force
Florida
Tennessee
Vandy
Arkansas
S Alabama
Idaho
Eliminated from bowl consideration (23):
ECU
UConn
Cincinnati
Tulsa
UNC
Baylor
Kansas
Illinois
Charlotte
Rice
UTEP
BYU
Bowling Green
Kent St
Ball St
New Mexico
Nevada
Hawaii
San Jose St
Oregon St
Ga Southern
Texas St
C Carolina
Until next time, may your day and your loved ones be blessed!
For the most part, the games were rather uneventful, though there were a few surprising results. Texas finally got a quality win by winning on the road at West Virginia. Fresno State solidified its season with a road win over a good Wyoming team. BYU sunk to a new low by losing to UMass at home, which gives the Minutemen 4 wins in their last 5 games. Georgia Southern finally won, which isn't all that surprising (since I predicted them to), but the manner in which they won WAS surprising: 56-0! Iowa losing to Purdue shocked me, as the Hawkeyes are generally tough to beat at home. Kansas St went on the road to upset Oklahoma St, and gained bowl eligibility. Houston and Marshall are both teams that have baffled me all year, as I picked both to win this week, but they lost to Tulane and UTSA, respectively. Coastal Carolina going on the road to beat a semi-decent Idaho team was a real shocker. And Arizona getting blown out by Oregon was not a result I expected.
Here are how the conference races are shaking out (alphabetically):
AAC: The winner of the USF at UCF game on Friday will face Memphis in the Championship game on Dec 2 at 12:00 on ABC. The location is yet to be determined. If I had to guess, I would think it would be at UCF if they win, and at Memphis if USF wins, though don't quote me on that. Assuming Memphis wins their game this weekend against East Carolina, the winner of the championship would have a great chance to snag one of the New Year's Six bowl berths.
ACC: Miami will face Clemson on Dec 2 at 8:00 on ABC in Charlotte. Assuming Clemson beats South Carolina and Miami beats Pittsburgh, the winner of this game should be guaranteed a slot in the four-team playoff. It's possible, if Clemson wins the ACCCG, for both teams to make it, depending on results elsewhere.
BIG12: Oklahoma has already locked up a spot in the (re)inaugural championship game (a truly dumb idea...). If TCU beats Baylor on Friday, then they will be the opponent. If TCU loses, then all heck could break loose! (Not really; I just wanted to say "heck".) Here are the scenarios (as I see them) if TCU loses:
Texas beats Texas Tech, Okla St beats Kansas, W Va beats Okla, Iowa St beats Kansas St: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St wins, W Va wins, Iowa St loses: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St wins, W Va loses, Iowa St wins: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St loses, W Va wins, Iowa St wins: TCU
Texas loses, Okla St wins, W Va wins, Iowa St wins: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St wins, W Va loses, Iowa St loses: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St loses, W Va wins, Iowa St loses: TCU
Texas wins, Okla St loses: W Va loses, Iowa St wins: 3-way tie; I have no idea...
Texas loses; Okla St wins, W Va wins, Iowa St loses: TCU
Texas loses, Okla St wins, W Va loses, Iowa St wins: 3 way tie; I have no idea...
Texas loses, Okla St loses, W Va wins, Iowa St wins: 3-way tie; I have no idea...
Texas wins, all others lose: TCU
Okla St wins, all others lose: TCU
W Va wins, all others lose: TCU
Iowa St wins, all other lose: Iowa State
As you can see, the odds favor TCU. But this is the BIG12, where the bizarre happens. The game will be played on Dec 2 at 12:30 in Arlington. Oklahoma has the best chance of making the playoff.
BIG10: The teams are set, as Ohio State will face Wisconsin on Dec 2 at 8:00 pm in Indianapolis on FOX. The winner of this game has a great chance to make the playoff.
CUSA: North Texas will face Florida Atlantic (FAU) in Boca Raton on Dec 2 at 12:00 noon on ESPN. The winner could finish 10-3, but will not qualify for the New Year's Six berth, unless total chaos breaks out.
MAC: Both divisions are still up for grabs. If Akron defeats Kent St on Tuesday, they will wrap up the East title. If the Zips get upset, then Ohio can clinch with a win at Buffalo on Friday. In the West, Toledo will gain a berth in the championship game by defeating Western Michigan on Friday. If they lose, Northern Illinois will clinch if they win at Central Michigan, also on Friday. The Championship game will be Dec 2 at 12 noon in Detroit on ESPN. Toledo has a slim chance at the New Year's Six bowl.
MWC: This is a very strange case, as the matchup is set: Boise St vs. Fresno St on Dec 2 at 7:45 on ESPN. However, these 2 teams play in Fresno this weekend. If Fresno State wins, they will play in Fresno again. If Boise St wins, they will play in Boise on the 2nd. Weird... Boise State has the best chance at the New Year's Six bowl berth, but Fresno State could sneak in with 2 wins over Boise St.
PAC12: USC has already clinched the South, as their regular season is over. Washington State will win the North if they defeat Washington on Saturday. If Washington wins, Stanford will win the North. The Championship game will be played on Friday, Dec 1 at 8:00 pm in Santa Clara, and will be on ESPN. The winner of this game would need a lot to fall their way to make the playoff.
SEC: Georgia clinched the East 2 weeks ago. The winner of the Alabama at Auburn game this Saturday will determine the West champion. The SECCG will be played in Atlanta at 4:00 pm on Dec 2 on CBS. The winner of this game is likely to make the playoff. However, there is at least one scenario where this might not be the case: a Georgia win paired with a loss to Georgia Tech. If Auburn defeats Alabama this weekend, the committee could take a one-loss, non-champion Alabama over a 2-loss Georgia or Auburn. They might even take the Tide over a one-loss Georgia team, due to the Dawgs 23-point loss to Auburn last weekend.
Sun Belt: This is the only conference without a championship game, so most of the teams have 2 games left. Currently, there is a 4-way tie atop the conference: Troy, Arkansas State, Appalachian State, and Georgia State, all at 5-1. Louisiana is the only 4-2 team, with La-Monroe the only team at 4-3. There are way too many scenarios to parse out here. Regardless, it would take a moderate miracle for one of these teams to get the New Year's Six berth.
Here are the teams eligible for a bowl berth (78 slots available) (69):
UCF
USF
Memphis
Houston
Navy
SMU
Clemson
NC St
Wake Forest
Louisville
Boston College
Miami
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Oklahoma
TCU
Okla St
Texas
W Va
Iowa St
Kansas St
Ohio St
Penn St
Mich St
Michigan
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Iowa
FAU
FIU
Marshall
WKU
N Texas
UAB
S Miss
UTSA
Notre Dame
Army
Akron
Ohio
Toledo
N Illinois
C Mich
W Mich
Boise St
Wyoming
Colo St
Utah St
Fresno St
San Diego St
Stanford
Washington
Washington St
Oregon
USC
Arizona
Ariz St
Georgia
S Carolina Kentucky
Missouri
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Miss St
Texas A&M
Troy
Ark St
Ga St
App St
Need one or more wins to qualify (21):
Temple (at Tulsa)
Tulane (at SMU)
FSU (at Florida, La-Monroe)
Ga Tech (Georgia)
Duke (at Wake Forest)
Texas Tech (at Texas)
Indiana (at Purdue)
Purdue (Indiana)
Minnesota (Wisconsin)
Mid Tenn (ODU)
ODU (at Mid Tenn)
La Tech (UTSA)
Buffalo (Ohio)
UNLV (at Nevada)
Cal (at UCLA)
UCLA (Cal)
Colorado (at Utah)
Utah (Colorado)
Ole Miss (at Miss St)
Louisiana (Ga Southern, at App St)
New Mexico St (Idaho, S Alabama)
Can only qualify with a win(s) and a waiver (15):
Syracuse
Pitt
Rutgers
Maryland
Nebraska
UMass
Miami
E Mich
Air Force
Florida
Tennessee
Vandy
Arkansas
S Alabama
Idaho
Eliminated from bowl consideration (23):
ECU
UConn
Cincinnati
Tulsa
UNC
Baylor
Kansas
Illinois
Charlotte
Rice
UTEP
BYU
Bowling Green
Kent St
Ball St
New Mexico
Nevada
Hawaii
San Jose St
Oregon St
Ga Southern
Texas St
C Carolina
Until next time, may your day and your loved ones be blessed!
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