College Football Preview Part VIII

Welcome back!

I hope you are enjoying reading this as much as I enjoy putting it together, and I hope it is part of your overall ritual for getting ready for the season.  As I said in part I, I tweaked my formula for my power rankings, and I think it will be much better this year. 

So far, I have previewed #s 130-61 (see parts 1-7), so today I'll cover #s 60-51.  Let's get to it!

60 Kentucky

Coach: Mark Stoops (6th yr, 6th overall)
Best Case: 8-4
Worst Case: 5-7
Notes: UK was 87th in scoring (10th SEC) and 103rd in ypg (11th SEC); defense was 74th in ppg (8th SEC) and 92nd in ypg (12th SEC); pass defense was 103rd (13th SEC); under Stoops, UK is 21-18 before November (.538) and 5-18 in November and bowls (.217); UK has no QB on the roster who has ever played in an FBS game; OL returns 4 starters; Benny Snell is the 1st player in UK history to rush for 1,000 yds in consecutive seasons; defense returns 9 starters; K and P must be replaced; 13 of top 17 tacklers return; UK has lost to Florida for 31 straight years; offense returns 7 starters; UK won 3 games against SEC East foes for the first time since the split to divisions.

59 California

Coach: Justin Wilcox (2nd yr, 2nd overall)
Best Case: 9-3
Worst Case: 5-7
Notes: Depth is thin at LB; early schedule is tough: UNC, @BYU, Idaho St, Oregon, @Arizona; offense was 71st in scoring (10th PAC12) and 90th in ypg (11th PAC12); rushing offense was 109th (10th PAC12) and passing was 40th (5th PAC12); defense was 78th in ppg (7th PAC12) and 96th in ypg (7th PAC12); pass defense was 113th; OL returns all 5 starters; secondary should be the strength of the defense; K and P are untested; lost 3 games in '17 by 3 pts or less (including a 2OT loss); scoring defense improved by 2 TDs in '17; 11 of top 14 tacklers return; offense returns 10 starters; 8 starters are back on defense.

58 Navy

Coach: Ken Niumatalolo (11th yr, 11th overall)

Best Case: 12-1

Worst Case: 8-5

Notes: Navy has an 18-6 conference record since joining the AAC in 2015; QB Malcolm Perry averaged 8.6 ypc, and was the 3rd player in FBS history to have 2 runs of 90+ yds in the same season- he attempted only 2 passes in'17 (1 was intercepted); Navy gained 10+ yds on 9.1 carries/game (5th in FBS); offense was 48th in scoring (5th AAC) and 39th in ypg (also 5th); rushing offense was 2nd (1st AAC0 and passing was 129th (last AAC); defense was 62nd in ppg (5th AAC) and 48th in ypg (2nd AAC); P is solid, K lacks range; Navy has had a winning record in 14 of the last 15 seasons; Navy will travel 26,496 miles, with games at Hawaii, SMU, Air Force, Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane, and against Notre Dame in San Diego;  defense managed only 18 sacks and 10 QB hurries; 5 starters return on defense; offense has 4 returning starters.

57 Arizona State

Coach: Herm Edwards (1st yr, 1st overall)

Best Case: 6-6

Worst Case: 3-9

Notes: ASU allowed 41 sacks in '17; defense is shifting to a 3-3-5; tough early schedule: UTSA, Mich St, @SD St, @ Washington; Herm Edwards last coached in college in 1989; offense was 42nd in scoring (7th PAC12) and 37th in ypg (6th PAC12); rushing and passing were both 6th in the PAC12; defense was 103rd in scoring (32.8ppg-9th in PAC12) and 109th in ypg (8th PAC12); pass defense was 121st (11th PAC12); K and P are solid; return games need to improve; QB Manny Wilkins will be a 3rd-yr starter; OL returns 4 starters; defense returns 4 starters; 8 starters return on offense; ASU has one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

56 North Carolina

Coach: Larry Fedora (7th yr, 11th overall)

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 6-6

Notes: UNC suffered 18 season-ending injuries; committed 22 turnovers and finished 103rd in TO margin; offense was 83rd in ppg (11th ACC) and 96th in ypg (11th ACC); rushing was 13th ACC and passing was 9th ACC; defense was 88th in ppg (13th ACC) and 99th in ypg (12th ACC); rushing defense was 113th (last AAC) and passing was 63rd (9th ACC); UNC averaged 8.0 yards-to-go on 3rd down; UNC has been last against the run in the ACC for 5 straight seasons; K is solid, P is new, and the return game is a strength; defense allowed 5 runs of 50+ yds and 5 TD passes of 65 yds or more in '17; UNC was outscored 210-139 in the 2nd half of games in '17; offense returns 5 starters, but OL is young; defense returns 8 starters.

55 Washington State

Coach: Mike Leach (7th yr, 17th overall)

Best Case: 6-6

Worst Case: 5-7

Notes: WSU has ranked last in the FBS in rushing attempts in 5 of Leach's 6 seasons; offense was 50th in ppg (8th PAC12) and 33rd in ypg (5th PAC12); rushing was 129th (68 ypg-last in PAC12) and 2nd in passing (1st PAC12); defense was 58th in scoring (4th PAC12), 16th in total defense (2nd PAC12), 47th in rushing (4th PAC12) and 9th in passing (1st PAC12); no QB on the roster has taken a snap in a game at WSU; defense finished in the top 10 nationally in TFL (7.9/game) and takeaways (28); P and K are new; WSU replaced 5 assistant coaches; offense returns 4 starters; defense returns 6 starters; WSU has the least experience of any PAC12 team.

54 Ole Miss

Coach: Matt Luke (2nd yr, 2nd overall)

Best Case: 5-7

Worst Case: 3-9

Notes: Opposing teams averaged 5.4 ypc in '17; both K and P must be replaced; offense averaged 7.62 yds on 1st downs, 4th in FBS and 1st SEC; offense was 33rd in ppg (5th SEC) and 18th in ypg (2nd SEC); rushing was 104th (11th SEC) and 11th in passing (1st SEC); defense was 110th in ppg (13th SEC) and 116th in ypg(last SEC); rushing defense was 124th (13th SEC0 and passing was 52nd (9th SEC); OL returns 5 players who have started at least 8 games; Ole Miss has one more year on probation, which means no bowl; offense returns 8 starters, including an outstanding receiver corps; Ole Miss is only original SEC West team to not appear in the SECCG; 7 starters return on defense.

53 Houston

Coach: Major Applewhite (2nd yr, 2nd overall)

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 7-5

Notes: First 3 games are @Rice, Arizona, @Texas Tech; offense was 65th in scoring (7th AAC) and 40th in ypg (6th AAC); defense was 42nd in ppg (2nd AAC) and 89th in ypg (4th AAC); pass defense was 120th (9th AAC) while the run defense was 45th (2nd AAC); AA Outland Trophy winning DT Ed Oliver returns; K and P are very solid; UH plays only 3 games outside the state of Texas; UH lost 4 games by 6pts or less in '17; UH has not been shut out in 225 games (since Sept 2000); 5 starters return on defense, and 5 starters on offense; UH should have one of the best defenses in the AAC.

52 Purdue

Coach: Jeff Brohm (2nd yr, 5th overall)

Best Case: 6-6

Worst Case: 3-9

Notes: Depth on defense is lacking; offense should be potent, with 2 returning QBs with experience (32 combined starts); offense was 91st in scoring (8th B10) and 61st in ypg (5th B10); defense was 24th in ppg (8th B10) and 52nd in ypg (10th B10); OL returns 4 starters; P Joe Schopper converted 4 fake punts in '17 (2 passes, 1 run, 1 by penalty); offense returns 9 starters; defense returns 4 starters.

51 Pittsburgh

Coach: Pat Narduzzi (4th yr, 4th overall)

Best Case: 5-7

Worst Case: 3-9

Notes: Offense averaged only 5.4 ypp (94th); offense was 101st in scoring (23.9ppg, lowest since 2007 and 13th ACC); total offense was 97th (12th ACC); defense was 65th in scoring (9th ACC) and 69th in ypg (11th ACC; passing defense was 106th (13th ACC) and run defense was 41st (5th ACC); defense returns 9 starters; defense managed only 23 sacks in '17; K needs consistency (though he has a strong leg) and the P will be new; tough OOC schedule: @ Notre Dame, @UCF, Penn St; 4 starters return on offense; 

That's it for now.  Please feel free to leave your comments.  Tomorrow, I will detail #s 50-41.  Until then, may you and your loved ones be blessed!