College Football Preview Part X
Welcome back!
I hope you are enjoying reading this as much as I enjoy putting it together, and I hope it is part of your overall ritual for getting ready for the season. As I said in part I, I tweaked my formula for my power rankings, and I think it will be much better this year.
So far, I have previewed #s 130-41 (see parts 1-9), so today I'll cover #s 40-31. Let's get to it!
40 Northwestern
Coach: Pat Fitzgerald (13th yr, 13th overall)
Best Case: 11-1
Worst Case: 8-4
Notes: NW's offense was 56th in ppg and 55th in ypg (both 4th B10); rushing was 52nd (5th B10) and passing was 64th (6th B10); defense was 20th in ppg (7th B10) and 34th in ypg (8th B10); rushing D was 9th (4th B10) and 101st (last B10) in passing; there is some concern that QB Clayton Thorson will not be ready for the beginning of the season after injuring his knee in the bowl game; OL returns 4 starters; TO margin was +7 (26th-2nd B10); K needs to improve his range, and a new P needs to be found, but KOR Solomon Vault has 4 career return TDs; NW is 27-12 over the last 3 years; offense returns 7 starters; 7 starters also return on defense, and 10 of the top 14 tacklers.
39 UCF
Coach: Josh Heupel (1st yr, 1st overall)
Best Case: 12-0
Worst Case: 8-4
Notes: 13-game winning streak is the nation's longest active streak; in the last decade, UCF has had six 10-win seasons, 5 conference championships, and 2 New Year's Sixe bowl wins (2013 and 2017); QB McKenzie Milton returns (2nd in passing efficiency, 4,037 passing yds, 37 passing TDs, 613 rushing yds, and 8 rushing TDs); OL returns 4 starters; UCF averaged 7.5 ypp (2nd FBS), up from 123rd (4.7ypp) in '16; offense was 1st FBS in scoring (48.2) and 5th in ypg (530.5-2nd AAC); rushing offense was 33rd (5th AAC) and passing was 10th (2nd AAC); defense was 52nd (3rd AAC) in ppg and 94th (5th AAC) in ypg; rushing D was 59th (4th AAC) and passing D was 116th (7th AAC); defense is switching to a 4-3 under DC Randy Shannon; K and P are very good, but returners will be new; UCF set program records in '17 for scoring, total offense, and passing yards; 6 starters return on offense; defense returns 6 starters, but only 4 of top 9 tacklers; UCF was +17 in TO margin (2nd nationally/1st AAC).
38 Boston College
Coach: Steve Addazio (6th yr, 8th overall)
Best Case: 10-2
Worst Case: 7-5
Notes: Offense returns 9 starters; BC ranked 3rd nationally in pass efficiency defense; offense was 85th in ppg (12th ACC) and 84th in ypg (9th ACC); rushing was 25th (3rd ACC) and passing was 114th (13th ACC); defense was 36th in scoring (^th ACC), 57th in total defense (8th ACC), 94th in rushing D (11th ACC) and 4th in passing D (4th ACC); TO margin was +5; defense lacks depth at DT; kicking game is a concern; receivers had a problem with drops in '17; offense returns 10 starters; 6 starters return on defense; in '17, 5 of BC's top players were lost to injuries during the season.
37 Georgia Tech
Coach: Paul Johnson (11th yr, 17th overall)
Best Case: 7-5
Worst Case: 5-7
Notes: Defense is transitioning from a 4-2-5 to a 3-4; QB TaQuon Marshall set a school QB rushing record of 1,146 yds, but only completed 37.1% of his passes, though he did have a TD for every 11.6 attempts; OL returns 4 starters, though 6 have starting experience; Kickers were accurate, but lacked range; GT has alternated records the last 5 years, improving or decreasing by 4-8 from season to season, which means this should be an "up" season; GT averaged just 5.97 yds to go on 3rd down, 3rd best in FBS (behind Army and Navy); offense was 70th in scoring (7th ACC) and 74th in ypg (8th ACC); rushing was 5th (307.4- 1st ACC) and 128th in passing (last ACC); defense was 63rd (8th ACC) in ppg and 33rd (5th ACC) in ypg; rushing d was 49th (8th ACC) and passing D was 35th (7th ACC); returning receivers had only 5 catches in '17; GT defense had only 17 sacks and 47 TFL; P had a solid freshman season, so GT seems set there for the next 3 years; GT lost 2 games by 1 point in '17; GT has a difficult schedule, with most of their "winnable" games on the road; secondary is the biggest concern on defense; TO margin was -5; offense returns 8 starters; 5 starters return on defense, but only 4 of top 8 tacklers.
36 NC State
Coach: Dave Doeren
Best Case: 8-5
Worst Case: 6-6
Notes: Defense returns only 3 starters; P is solid, but questions remain at K; 5 of first 6 games are at home: James Madison, Ga St, W Virginia, @ Marshall, Virginia, and Boston College; QB Ryan Finley is a 6th-yr senior (he'll be a 3rd-yr starter)- he completed 68% of his passes on 3rd-and-7 or more; offense was 40th in ppg and 25th in ypg, both 4th ACC; rushing was 50th (6th ACC) and passing was 29th (4th ACC); defense was 50th in ppg (7th ACC) and 58th in ypg (9th ACC); rush D was 26th (3rd ACC) and pass D was 104th (12th ACC); TO margin was +8; top 3 receivers return, and 3 starters on the OL; NC St has had the fewest FGs (26) and lowest FG% (50.9%) of any ACC team over the last 3 years; return game will feature new faces; offense returns 6 starters; 3 of their 4 losses in '17 were by 7 pts or less.
35 Arizona
Coach: Kevin Sumlin (1st yr, 11th overall)
Best Case: 11-1
Worst Case: 8-4
Notes: QB Khalil Tate led the PAC12 in pass efficiency rating, and averaged 9.2 ypc; UA averaged 3.3 rushes of 20+ yds/game, 2nd in FBS (behind Army); offense was 5th in ppg (41.3) and 12th in ypg (both 1st PAC12); rush offense was 3rd (309.3- also 1st PAC12) and pass O was 101st (12th PAC12); defense was 109th in scoring and 119th in total D (both 10th PAC12); rush D was 86th (9th PAC12) and pass D was 101st (last PAC12); defense returns 9 starters; UA was last in the PAC12 with a 34.2-yard punting avg; K should be solid, and punt return is a strength; UA avoids Washington and Stanford out of the North Division, and has USC at home; biggest problem appears to be a lack of depth throughout the roster- if UA can avoid devastating injuries, they could be a surprise contender in the South; TO margin was +3; offense returns 7 starters; UA is still the only original PAC10 team to not play in the Rose Bowl game.
34 Louisville
Coach: Bobby Petrino (9th yr (5th this term), 14th overall)
Best Case: 10-2
Worst Case: 7-5
Notes: QB Lamar Jackson must be replaced; UL gained 5+ yds on 49.5% of its carries (non-sacks), best in FBS; TO margin was +2; offense was 11th in ppg (38.1), 3rd in ypg, 15th in pasing (all 1st ACC) and 15th in rushing (2nd ACC); defense was 70th in ppg (10th ACC) and 62nd in ypg (also 10th ACC); receiver corps is deep and experienced; Brian VanGorder is the new DC, UL's 3rd in 3 seasons; kicking game should be one of the strongest areas of the team_ K Blanton Creque has a career fg pct of .846, and P Mason King averaged 43.9 per punt; UL opens with Alabama in Orlando (tough way to break in a new QB!); OL returns 4 starters; depth at RB and in the defensive secondary is a concern; 7 starters return on offense; defense returns only 4 starters.
33 Missouri
Coach: Barry Odom (3rd yr, 3rd overall)
Best Case: 9-3
Worst Case: 7-5
Notes: UM scored at least 45 pts in its final 6 games; defense returns 7 starters; UM must replace its top runner and top receiver, but return QB Drew Lock (SEC single-season record 44 TD passes in '17- led nation), and the cupboard at RB and REC is hardly bare; kicking game is a strength; TO margin in '17 was -8, 111th in FBS and last SEC; offense was 14th in scoring (37.5) and 8th in total offense (502.2-both led SEC); rush offense was 36th (6th SEC) and pass O was 14th (2nd SEC); defense was 93rd in ppg (12th SEC) and 83rd in ypg (11th SEC), which includes 58th against the run (8th SEC) and 107th against the pass (last SEC); UM began '17 1-5, then had a 6-game winning streak before the loss to Texas in the Texas Bowl; Derek Dooley is the new OC- this will be his first season as an OC and calling plays; OL returns all 5 starters, as well as an all-conference caliber TE; UM should have one of the better special team units in the SEC in '18; DT may be the best unit on the team; offense returns 9 starters; UM was 0-6 vs teams with winning records and 7-0 vs teams with losing records in '17.
32 Florida Atlantic
Coach: Lane Kiffin (2nd yr, 7th overall)
Best Case: 10-2
Worst Case: 7-5
Notes: FAU is currently on an 10-game winning streak; FAU was 10th in scoring differential (+15.8) in '17, and broke 23 school single-season records; TB Devin Singletary returns- he led the nation in rushing TDs (32) and points (198) in '17, and had 1,920 rushing yds (6th); QB will be new; FAU averaged 5.5 points per trip inside the opponent's 40, best in FBS; TO margin was +13; offense was 8th in scoring (40.6 ppg) and 9th in total offense (498.4 ypg), both 1st in C-USA; rush O was 6th (also 1st C-USA) and pass O was 80th (8th C-USA); defense was 34th in ppg (3rd C-USA) and 63rd in ypg (8th C-USA); defense was 2nd in FBS with 20 INTs; K and P will be new, but the return game should be solid; FAU will have a new OC (24-yr-old Charlie Weis, Jr) as well as a new STC; tough early schedule: @Oklahoma, Air Force, Bethune-Cookman, @UCF; offense returns 5 starters; 10 starters return on defense.
31 Oregon
Coach: Mario Cristobal (1st yr, 7th overall)
Best Case: 11-1
Worst Case: 8-4
Notes: OU allowed 6.4 ypp (115th) in '16, but improved that to 5.1 ypp (28th) in '17 (largest improvement in FBS); offense was 18th in scoring (36.0 ppg-3rd PAC12) and 30th in total offense (440.9 ypg- 4th PAC12); run offense was 12th (2nd PAC12) while the pass offense was 94th (10th PAC12); defense was 81st in ppg (8th PAC12) and 46th in ypg (4th PAC12), but the run defense was 25th (2nd PAC12); OU had a 0 TO margin; QB Justin Herbert returns- OU was 6-1 when he played, and averaged 52.1 ppg; K must be replaced; offense returns 7 starters; defense returns 7 starters, as well as DC Jim Leavitt.
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