College Football Preview Part XI

Welcome back!

I hope you are enjoying reading this as much as I enjoy putting it together, and I hope it is part of your overall ritual for getting ready for the season.  As I said in part I, I tweaked my formula for my power rankings, and I think it will be much better this year. 

So far, I have previewed #s 130-31 (see parts 1-10), so today I'll cover #s 30-21 and will finish up the team previews by Friday.  Let's get to it!

30 Iowa

Coach: Kirk Ferentz (20th yr, 20th overall)

Best Case: 11-1

Worst Case: 9-3

Notes: Iowa was the only team to beat a top 10 finalist by 30 points (Ohio St-31); failed to score at least 20 points in 6 of 9 conference games; Iowa defense was responsible for 46% of its opponents' incomplete passes (2nd FBS); offense was 66th in scoring (5th B10) and 117th in total offense (329.5 ypg- 10th B10); rushing was 97th (11th B10) and passing was 93rd (9th B10); defense was 17th with 19.9 ppg (5th B10) and 36th in total defense (9th B10); rushing and passing defense were 42nd (8th B10) and 50th (9th B10), respectively; TO margin was +7 (26th FBS, 2nd B10); in '17, Iowa got its 1st bowl victory since 2010; RBs are relatively untested, but TE Noah Fant (6'5", 241 lbs) is a matchup nightmare for defenses (Iowa TE record of 11TDs on 30 catches, 16.5 ypc in '17); OL returns 3 starters, including both OTs; K is solid, but punting needs to improve; Iowa misses Ohio St, Michigan, and Mich St out of the B10 East in '18; QB Nate Stanley had 26 TD passes against only 6 INTs; secondary could be the strength of the defense; Kirk Ferentz is the longest tenured HC in FBS, taking over in 1999; offense returns 7 starters; defense returns 6 starters; Iowa plays their toughest B10 West foes at home: Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska.

29 South Carolina

Coach: Will Muschamp (3rd yr, 7th overall)

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 7-5

Notes: Running game averaged only 3.9 ypc in '17; OL returns 3 starters; K is solid but lacks range (4-14 at 40+), but P is very good; offense was 99th with 24.2 ppg and 109th in ypg (both 12th SEC); rushing was 111th (12th SEC) and passing was 77th (6th SEC); defense was 25th in scoring (5th SEC)and 44th in ypg (7th SEC);  rush defense was 39th (6th SEC) and pass defense was 69th (10th SEC); QB Jake Bentley will be a 3rd-yr starter; WR Deebo Samuel returns from missing the last 10 Games of '17 due to injury; Samuel will probably return to KOR duty; SC has 98% of rushing yards, 80% of receiving yards, and 100% of passing yards returning; TO margin was +11 (13th FBS, 2nd SEC); SC has lost to Kentucky for 4 straight years; offense returns 8 starters; 6 starters return on defense; SC is 50-14 in their last 64 home games.

28 Oklahoma State

Coach: Mike Gundy (14th yr, 14th overall)

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 7-5

Notes: Defense will be moving to a 4-2-5; OSU gained 30+ yds on 4.4 plays/game, 1st in FBS- passes accounted for 3.5 of these/game (also 1st); offense was 4th in ppg (45.0) and 2nd in ypg (568.9- school record), both 2nd B12; rushing offense was 47th (3rd B12) and 1st in passing; defense was 85th in scoring (6th B12), 79th in ypg (5th B12) and 38th against the run (5th B12); however, the OSU defense was 117th against the pass (7th B12); TO margin was +3, 6th in B12; OSU has gone 10-3 in 3 straight seasons; QB will be new (replacing record-setting Mason Rudolph); most of the offense is deep with proven and potential standouts; 7 starters return on defense; K  and P are solid; Mike Gundy is the 3rd longest tenured HC in FBS.

27 Kansas State

Coach: Bill Snyder (10th yr (this stint), 27th overall)

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 6-6

Notes: KSU set a school record in '17 averaging 5.0 ypc; TO margin was +10 (2nd B12); KSU had the 6th slowest tempo, snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds; offense was #39 in scoring (6th B12), 95th in total offense (9th B12), 32nd in rushing (2nd B12) and 108th in passing (last B12); defense was 50th in ppg (4th B12), 91st in ypg (6th B12), 13th in rush defense (3rd B12) and 129th in pass defense (309.1 ypg- last B12); QB is unsettled, with Alex Delton and Skylar Thompson both with experience; RB corps is very deep; experience at REC is lacking; OL returns all 5 starters, and has plenty of depth; specialists will all be new in '18; HC Bill Snyder is already a member of the CFHOF, and is 3rd among active FBS coaches in wins (210); KSU leads the country in non-offensive TDs since 1999 with 111; 5 starters return on defense; 11 of top 17 tacklers return; 8 starters reurn on offense.

26 LSU

Coach: Ed Orgeron (3rd yr, 7th overall)

Best Case: 7-5

Worst Case: 5-7

Notes: LSU will have only 4 senior starters in '18; tough schedule includes Miami, FL, and UGA and Florida as their crossover games; new OC is Steve Ensminger; RBs lack experience; TO margin was +10 (16th FBS, 3rd SEC); offense wa 76th in scoring (9th SEC), 28th in rushing (5th SEC), 84th in passing (8th SEC) and 54th in TO (7th SEC); defense was 14th in ppg and 12th in ypg (both 4th SEC); rush D was 24th (3rd SEC) and pass D was 21st (6th SEC); OL returns 3 starters; Ps are solid, but K needs to improve; offense returns 5 starters; defense also returns 5 starters; LSU has won 8+ games in 17straight seasons (2nd longest FBS).

25 Virginia Tech

Coach: Justin Fuente (3rd yr, 7th overall)

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 6-6

Notes: VT hasn't allowed 400+ ypg in 25 years; VT hasn't surrendered 30+ ppg since 1973; QB Josh Jackson led all freshmen with 2991 yds passing, with 20 TDs against 9 INTs- he was 2nd in passer rating (to Jake Fromm of UGA); OL returns 3 starters; VT has a bowl streak of 25 years; TO margin was +5 (4th ACC); offense was 66th in scoring and 53rd in TO, both 6th ACC; rushing was 54th and passing was 57th, both 7th ACC; defense was 4th in ppg and 13th in ypg, both 2nd ACC; rush D was 15th (2nd ACC) and pass D was 33rd (6th ACC); defense stopped runs at or behind the LOS on 27.2% of rush attempts, 3rd in FBS; VT averaged 3.9 ypc, 13th in the ACC; P unit is very strong; 3/4 of the roster are sophomore or younger;  LBs will all be new starters; DC Bud Foster will be entering his 32nd season at VT; VT allowed just 9.0 ppg in 6 home games in '17; offense returns 7 starters; only 5 starters return on defense.

24 Florida

Coach: 11-1

Best Case: 8-4

Worst Case: 

Notes: Both K and P will be new; new DC Todd Grantham is switching UF to a 3-4; offense was 108th in scoring (22.1 ppg) and 110th in TO (335.9 ypg), both 13th in the SEC; rushing was 75th (9th SEC) and passing was 102nd (11th SEC); defense was 69th in ppg (7th SEC) and 31st in ypg (6th SEC): rush D was 50th (7th SEC) and pass D was 28th (8th SEC); OL returns 5 starters; punt return unit ranked last in the SEC in '17; 10 starters return on offense; defense returns 9 starters, including top 4 tacklers; the 349 ypg allowed in '17 was their most since 2003, and their 27.3 ppg allowed was their most since 1984; TO margin was -3 (11th SEC).

23 Utah

Coach: Kyle Whittingham (14th yr, 14th overall)

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 8-4

Notes: Utah lost 3 games by 3 pts or less; K and P are both All-America candidates; Kyle Whittingham is the 3rd longest tenured HC in FBS; offense was 52nd in scoring (9th PAC12), 52nd in ypg (8th PAC12, and 6th in rushing and 49th in passing (both 7th PAC12); defense was 39th with 23.2 ppg and 25th in ypg, both 3rd PAC12; Rush D was also 3rd in PAC 12 (27th FBS), while the pass D was 4th PAC12 (43rd FBS); OL returns 4 starters; K Matt Gay (Lou Groza Award winner) and P Mith Wishnowsky (Ray Guy Award winner '16) are outstanding!; Utah is the only team in the PAC12 South that has yet to play in the PAC12CG; as always, DL is a strength; HC Whittingham is 11-1 in bowls!; offense returns 8 starters; 6 starters return on defense.

22 West Virginia

Coach: Dana Holgorsen (8th yr, 8th overall)

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 6-6

Notes: Offense returns 7 starters, including QB Will Grier and WR David Sills V (60 receptions, 18 TDs (best FBS); WVU attempted the fewest FGs in the B12 in '17; offense averaged 7.47 yds on 1st downs- 7th FBS, 2nd B12; offense was 22nd in ppg (3rd B12), 20th in ypg (4th B12); rushing was 84th (5th B12) and passing was 13th (4th B12); defense was 90th in scoring (7th B12) and 107th in ypg (8th B12); rush D was 104th (las B12) and pass D was 91st (4th B12); TO margin was -7 (105th FBS, 8th B12); special teams should be solid, especially the return game; defensive depth is a huge concern (lots of departures/injuries during the offseason); OL returns 4 starters; 5 starters return on defense.

21 Texas A&M

Coach: Jimbo Fisher (1st yr, 9th overall)

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 6-6

Notes: Offense was 34th in ppg (6th SEC) and 56th in TO (8th SEC), which includes (78th in rushing (10th SEC) and 47th in passing (3rd SEC); defense was 87th in ppg (30.7- 10th SEC) and 78th in ypg (408.5- 9th SEC); run D was 71st (9th SEC) and pass D was 85th (11th SEC); TO margin was +3 (5th SEC); K Daniel LeCamera is solid (18-21 in '17), and the P will be new,  but return game will miss Christian Kirk; QB will be either Kellen Mond (8 starts in '17) or Nick Starkel (4 starts); Mike Elko (from ND) is the new DC; TAMU led the SEC in sacks in '17 (40); offense returns 7 starters; 8 starters return on defense.

That's it for now.  Please feel free to leave your comments.  Tomorrow, I will detail #s 20-16.  Until then, may you and your loved ones be blessed!