College Football Preview Part XII

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Welcome back!

I hope you are enjoying reading this as much as I enjoy putting it together, and I hope it is part of your overall ritual for getting ready for the season.  As I said in part I, I tweaked my formula for my power rankings, and I think it will be much better this year. 

So far, I have previewed #s 130-21 (see parts 1-11), so today I'll cover #s 20-16, and will finish up the team previews by Friday.  Let's get to it!

20 Mississippi State

Coach: Joe Moorhead (1st yr, 1st overall)
Best Case: 11-1
Worst Case: 8-4
Notes: OL returns 4 starters; QB Nick Fitzgerald also returns (ankle injury in the Egg Bowl); defense is shifting from a 3-4 to a 4-3 (4-2-5); MSU gained 5+ yds on 44.8% of its rushing attempts (6th FBS); offense was 41st (7th SEC) in scoring (32.0 ppg) and 46th (6th SEC) in total offense (418.6 ypg); rushing was 11th (2nd SEC) and passing was 113th (last SEC); TO margin was -1 (8th SEC); RBs Aeris Williams and Kylin Hill also return; Bob Shoop is the new DC (5th one in 5 yrs); MSU defense was in the top 5 in the SEC in sacks, TFL, and TOs created; defense was 26th (6th SEC in scoring (20.9 ppg) and 10th in ypg (306.3- 3rd SEC); rushing D was 28th and passing D was 12th, both 4th SEC; K Jace Christmann is very solid, but P will be new; LB depth is a concern; offense returns 9 starters; defense returns 8 starters and 14 of top 17 tacklers; DL will be a strength.

19 Texas

Coach: Tom Herman (2nd yr, 4th overall)
Best Case: 12-0
Worst Case: 8-4
Notes: '17 was its 1st winning season since 2013; QB will again be between Shane Buechele (7 starts in '17) and Sam Ehlinger (6 starts), unless a freshman takes the job; UT only averaged 3.6 ypc on running plays; TO margin was +8 (4th B12); UT defense stuffed opponents at or behind the LOS on 27.1% of rushes (4th FBS); offense was 52nd in scoring, 65th in total offense, 96th in rushing offense, and 41st in passing offense, all of which was 7th B12; defense was 29th (3rd B12) in scoring (21.2 ppg), 41st in ypg (2nd B12), 8th in rushing D (2nd B12), and 109th in passing D (5th B12); UT lost 2 games in OT in '17, and all of their losses were by 10 pts or less (5 by 7 or less, 4 by 4 or less); defense led the B12 in 3rd down defense, and led the nation in non-offensive TDs (7); secondary should be a strength; P will be new (replacing Ray Guy Award winner Michael Dickson); depth on the OL is a concern; UT allowed 34 sacks in '17; K is a question mark; offense returns 7 starters; defense also returns 7 starters.

18 Boise State

Coach: Bryan Harsin (5th yr, 6th overall)
Best Case: 12-0
Worst Case: 9-3
Notes: QB will be 4-yr starter Brett Rypien; TO margin was +13 (9th FBS, 2nd MWC); offense was 36th in scoring (32.5- 2nd MWC) and 57th in TO (406.1 ypg, 4th MWC); rushing was 91st (9th MWC) and passing was 37th (3rd MWC); defense was 38th in scoring (22.9 ppg- 4th MWC), 21st in total defense (332.6 ypg- 3rd MWC), 17th in rush D (2nd MWC) and 49th in pass D (6th MWC); 10 of top 11 tacklers return; BS defense had 34 sacks and 15 INTs in '17; special teams look solid, with all major contributors returning; OL returns 4 players who started at least 7 games in '17; offense returns 6 starters; defense returns 10 starters (but not star LB Vander Esch).

17 Florida State

Coach: Willie Taggart (1st yr, 9th overall)
Best Case: 10-2
Worst Case: 8-4
Notes: Defense returns only 4 starters; K and P are solid; offense got stuffed at or behind the LOS on 23.5% of its non-sack carries, 10th worst in FBS; offense was 71st in scoring (8th ACC), and 100th in ypg (13th ACC); rushing was 77th (11th ACC) and passing was 89th (12th ACC); TO margin was -6 (12th ACC); defense was 29th in scoring (21.2 ppg- 5th ACC) and 18th in ypg (3rd ACC); rush defense was 31st (4th ACC) and passing D was 29th (5th ACC); OL surrendered 32 sacks in '17, and 68 the last 2 years; OL returns 4 starters; defense returns only 1 of top 7 tacklers; FSU played in their 36th straight bowl in '17 to set a new NCAA record; offense returns 8 starters.

16 TCU

Coach: Gary Patterson (18th yr, 18th overall)
Best Case: 9-3
Worst Case: 7-5
Notes: QB will be new in '18; opponents gained 5+ yds on just 28% of their rush attempts, 2nd best in FBS (behind Ohio St); TO margin was +3; offense was 29th in scoring (33.6 ppg) and 45th in total offense (419.2 ypg), both 5th B12; rushing was 53rd (4th B12) and passing was 52nd (8th B12); defense was 15th in scoring, 5th against the run, 70th against the pass, and 19th in total defense, all of which led the B12; every specialist except the LS returns to special teams; TCU has led the B12 in sacks for 3 straight years; OL returns only 2 starters; offense returns 5 starters; defense returns 6 starters, and 6 of top 9 tacklers.

That's it for now.  Please feel free to leave your comments.  Tomorrow, I will detail #s 15-11.  Until then, may you and your loved ones be blessed!

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