Odds and Ends 9/26/18

Welcome Back!

Here at Odds and Ends, I plan to look at some stats, trends, storylines, etc. as they play out.  I will also give my opinion on some issues, but you can take that for what it's worth.

LIR

Let's start with the Last Interception Race (LIR).  In this space, I will be chronicling who has the most attempts without an interception.  After week 4, the list looks very different.  Here are the top 5:

1. Brett Rypien, Boise State- 112
2. Joe Burrow, LSU- 106
3. Peyton Bender, Kansas- 89
4. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama- 80
5. Blake LaRussa, ODU- 68

I think this will be a fun race to watch!  I wonder how far we will get into the season until everyone has an interception?

All Wins and No Wins

This is where I will list all the teams that are still undefeated, and all the teams that are winless.  These lists will get smaller as the season goes on, of course.

Undefeated

Alabama

Buffalo

California

Cincinnati

Clemson

Colorado

Duke

Georgia

Kentucky

LSU

N C State

North Texas

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Penn State

Stanford

Syracuse

UCF

USF

West Virginia

Winless

Nebraska

San Jose State

UCLA

UTEP

Some interesting tidbits:

There are now only 4 winless teams.  That means that 10 teams earned their first win in week 4.  Undefeated teams have been whittled down to 21, as 13 suffered their first loss last week..

There are only 3 games between undefeated teams in week 5, and they're all doozies:  Syracuse @ Clemson, Ohio State @ Penn State, and Stanford @ Notre Dame.

There is only no games between winless teams. None of these teams are scheduled to play each other in 2018.

Here are the conference standings in relation to undefeated and winless teams.  The 1st number is the number of undefeated teams, the 2nd is the number of winless teams.  I trust you to know how many teams are in each conference.

SEC 4-0 

ACC 4-0

AAC 3-0

PAC 12 3-1

Big 12 2-0

Big 10 2-1 (1 undefeated team will be eliminated this weekend)

MAC 1-0

Independents 1-0

CUSA1-1

SBC 0-0

MWC 0-1

Conference Standings

I will also be keeping up with how the conferences are faring in non-conference games. Here is where we stand:

1) SEC 30-5 .857 winning percentage, up.009, #1 Last Week

2) Big 12 21-7 .750, up .019, #3 LW

3) ACC 29-10 .743, down .028, #2 LW

4) Pac 12 23-10 .697, no change, #4 LW

5) Big 10 26-13.667, no change, #5 LW

6) AAC 22-15.595, down .005, #6 LW

7) MWC 22-19 .537, down .019, #6 LW

8) SBC 14-11 .533, down .027, #7 LW

9) Independents 12-11 .522, up .052, #9LW

10) CUSA 19-25 .431, up .003, #10 LW

11) MAC 16-23.410, down .004, #11 LW

12) FCS 5-84 .059 down .010, #12 LW

And now, let's break down some of these numbers.

The SEC is 6-2 (1st) versus Power 5 Conferences and 12-3 (2nd) against Group of 5 conferences.  That makes them 18-5 against FBS competition, a 78.2% win percentage that is best in the nation.

The Big 12 is 15-6 (2nd) against the FBS.  That breaks down to 4-6 (6th) against P5 teams and 11-0 (1st) versus G5 teams.

The ACC is 16-10 (4th) against the FBS.  That breaks down to 3-6 (7th) vs. P5 competition, and 13-4(3rd) against G5 teams.

The Pac 12 is 14-10 (5th) against FBS teams, which breaks out to 3-4 (5th) vs. P5 and 11-6 (6th) against G5 teams.

The Big 10 is 7-5 (2nd) versus P5 teams and 17-8 (5th) against G5 teams.  That equates to 24-13 (3rd) vs. FBS competition.

The AAC is 12-13 (6th) vs. the FBS, which is broken down to 6-7 (4th) against P5 teams and 6-6 (T-7th) versus fellow G5 teams.

The MWC is 13-17 (8th) vs the FBS, which breaks out to 4-13 (8th) against P5 teams and 9-4 (4th) against other G5 teams.

The SBC is 1-8 (11th) versus P5 teams and 6-6 (T-7th) against G5.  Overall, they are 7-14 (9th) against FBS teams.

Independents are 10-11 (7th) vs. FBS competition.  They are 5-5 (3rd) vs. P5 and 5-6 (10th) vs. G5 teams.

The CUSA is 2-14 (10th) against P5 and 9-10 (9th) vs. G5 teams.  That makes them 11-24 (10th) against FBS overall.

The MAC is 6-23 (11th) against FBS teams.  They are 3-17 (9th) vs. P5 and 3-6 (11th) vs. G5.

The FCS has one win against a P5 team, and 5 against G5 teams.

Which Conference Division is the best?

In order to figure this out, I simply took the winning percentage of each team in the divisions and ranked them.  Yes, I included intra-division games.  Here is how it looks now, after 4 weeks:

1) Big 10 East .750
T2) SEC East .741
T2) ACC Atlantic .741
4) Pac 12 North .739

5) SEC West .714
6) Big 12 .684
7) AAC East .682
8) ACC Coastal .615
9) SBC East .611
10) MWC West .565
11) Pac 12 South .525
12) Independents .520
T13) Big 10 West .500
T13) MWC Mountain .500
15) CUSA West .480
16) AAC West .458
17) MAC East .455
18) CUSA East .423
19) SBC West .421
20) MAC West .391

The usual suspects are at the top, but the SEC West being below the East is surprising.  Also, the ACC Coastal and the Big 10 West are further down than you would expect.  The best G5 division (so far) appears to be the AAC East, with the SBC East not far behind.

Update on Paul's Playoff Picks:

Two of my four picks already have losses: Washington lost to Auburn in week 1 and Wisconsin lost to BYU in week 3.  While neither of these teams are eliminated yet, they just made their chances pretty slim.  Georgia and Clemson are still on track, however, as both are still undefeated.  Alabama, Ohio State, and Oklahoma are waiting for someone to stumble.  Penn State, Stanford, and Notre Dame are all beginning to get in the conversation, too.

Games I'm excited about this weekend:

UCLA @ Colorado- Can the Buffs stay undefeated, or will Chip Kelly get his first win?  The Bruins are coming off their bye week, as is Colorado.
Syracuse @ Clemson- It's a battle of 2 undefeated teams.  Can Syracuse pull off a shocker for the 2nd year in a row?
West Virginia @ Texas Tech- I'm still not convince WVU is all that, but are the Red Raiders a true threat in the Big 12?
Army @ Buffalo- Army almost pulled off the upset against Oklahoma last week.  Can they finish the job against Buffalo?  And just how good are the Bulls?
Virginia @ NC State- The Cavaliers have looked pretty good so far, and the Wolfpack is undefeated.  This game should separate contender (maybe) from pretender.
Pitt @ UCF- This is a chance for the Knights to make a statement, but will it matter?  If only Pitt was a decent team...
Florida @ Miss St- The Gators seem to have recovered from their historic lost to Kentucky, but can they go on the road and defeat the Bulldogs?  And how will Miss St react to their own loss to Kentucky?
Arkansas St @ Georgia Southern- This game should give us an indication of where the Eagles are on their rebuild, and how far they still have to go.
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles have been a hard luck team lately.  Can they finally overcome that to get a major victory?
Va Tech @ Duke- Can Duke stay undefeated?  How will the Hokies react to their loss to ODU?
Ohio St @ Penn St- Obviously...
Stanford @ Notre Dame- Duh...
South Carolina @ Kentucky- This is a key SEC East matchup.  Can the Wildcats continue their run?
La Tech @ North Texas- This is a big CUSA West matchup.  The loser will have lots of ground to make up if they want to win the division.
BYU @ Washington- This would be a huge resume' builder for BYU, and could destroy any chance the Huskies have for making the playoff.  The pressure is on!
Oregon @ Cal- Can the Ducks overcome their heartbreak and go on the road to defeat an undefeated Cal team?

Toledo @ Fresno St- This is just an interesting intersectional game for conference pride.

That's all for now.  Tomorrow, I will have my picks for Week 5.  Feel free to leave a comment.  Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!