Paul's Picks Week 4
Welcome Back!
Last week was the first time I dipped below 80%,as I finished 50-14, or 78.1%. After 3 weeks, I am 188-42 overall, for a winning percentage of .817, which is still pretty good. However, I have to admit that all the games against FCS competition has really helped my percentage. As we move away from those types of games, it gets a little tougher to predict, but that won't stop me from trying! On to the games!
Thursday, September 20
Tulsa @Temple- Temple got their first victory last week beating a decent Maryland team. Tulsa has played close games against both Texas and Arkansas St. I have a feeling the Owls are better than they showed the first 2 weeks, and are more like the team that won last wee. I'm going with Temple.
Friday, September 21
FAU @ UCF- Will this even be close? FAU is a decent team, but the Knights are way out iof their league. UCF in a walkover.
Penn State @ Illinois- Despite their 2-1 record, the Illini are still one of the worst Power 5 teams around. I don't see any way the Nittany Lions lose this, even if it's on the road.
Washington State @ USC- This is a tough one. The Cougars are 3-0, but they haven't played anyone of consequence. USC is 1-2, though their losses are to Stanford and Texas. However, those losses were not even close. I'm picking Wazzou in a (very mild) upset.
Saturday, September 22
Georgia @ Missouri- This is the game that has me worried as the Tigers have a top notch offense and an ok defense. However, I think the Dawgs pull this one out.
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest- I am very tempted to go with the Demon Deacons, because ND has struggled in every game, even against Ball State and Vandy, but I think the Irish pull out a close one.
Nebraska @ Michigan- The Wolverines should win this easily, but I have a feeling the Cornhuskers are going to play them close, at least into the 2nd half.
Kent State @ Ole Miss- The Golden Flashes aren't Alabama. Rebels roll!
Buffalo @ Rutgers- The Bulls are having a special season. The MAC gets another win over the Big 10!
Minnesota @ Maryland- The Terrapins have been exposed as just another middling team. The Golden Gophers still have hope. Gophers win a close one.
Akron @ Iowa State- The Zips have had a great start to their season, but I don't think they can beat 2 Power 5 teams in a row. Cyclones win a close one.
Boston College @ Purdue- The Boilermakers have to win sometime, don't they? Yes, they do, but not this week. I'm on the Eagle Express. BC wins in another close game.
Ohio @ Cincinnati- The Bearcats have been very good early in the season, and while Ohio is a good MAC team, I don't think they can go on the road and beat Cincy.
Nevada @ Toledo- We don't get too many MWC vs. MAC games. The Wolf Pack has had a good start to their season going 1-1 against Power 5 competition, while Toledo lost its one Power 5 game, albeit against a better team than the either that Nevada has played. I think the Rockets keep it relatively close, but Nevada pulls it out.
Navy @ SMU- So far, the Mustangs have been terrible. Navy has already beaten Memphis, who was favored to win the AAC. Midshipmen win on the road.
Pitt @ North Carolina- UNC has had a terrible start to the season, and got "hurricaned" out last week. The Panthers add the heat on Larry Fedora as the Tar Heels fall at home.
Louisville @ Virginia- The Cavaliers have looked good so far, though in their only game versus a Power 5 team, they lost by 4. Louisville got blown out by Alabama (who hasn't), and squeaked by a mediocre (at best) WKU. This is a conference game between 2 relatively even teams. I'm going with the home team: Cavaliers defeat the Cardinals (just for you, Jeff Moffatt!).
Western Michigan @ Georgia State- Normally, I would go with just about any team outside the SBC against Ga State, but the Panthers are getting better as a program. Plus, they've had an extra day to prepare. Panthers win!
Miami, Ohio @ Bowling Green- These 2 teams are a combined 1-5, but in this case, I'm going with the team that had higher preseason expectations. Redhawks win on the road.
WKU @ Ball State- The Cardinals played Notre Dame close while WKU lost to FCS Maine. I'm not sure what this says about ND and Maine, but I'm going with the home team on this one.
Illinois State @ Colorado State- Rams roll!
Maine @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas are 0-3, but they've played 2 Power 5 teams and Northern Illinois, who is expected to win the MAC West. Maine may be a very good FCS team (see WKU above), but I don't see them winning in Mt. Pleasant. C Mich gets their first win!
Texas A&M @ Alabama- Can the Aggies hang with the Tide? Not likely, but maybe they can be the 1st team to stay within 5 touchdowns.
Clemson @ Georgia Tech- If the Tigers are going to be caught overlooking an opponent, this would be the one. The Yellow Jackets have not been very good so far in 2018, but they have the potential to defeat Clemson. But I don't see it happening.
Tulane @ Ohio State- The Green Wave could really surprise the Buckeyes with their option attack and pull off the huge upset. Oh, who am I kidding? No way the Buckeyes lose this one.
Virginia Tech @ ODU- The Hokies win easily on the road over the Monarchs.
Kansas State @ West Virginia- This could be a sneaky good game! Everyone expects the Mountaineers to challenge Oklahoma for the Big 12 title, but I'm not so sure. However, I don't think the Wildcats have the offense to hang with WVU. Mountaineers win at home.
FIU @ Miami, Florida- The Canes should have no problems with the Panthers.
Gardner-Webb @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers roll!
Charlotte @ UMass- This is another tough game to pick, as they seem to be evenly matched. Usually, I go with the home team in these situations, but I'm picking the 49ers.
NC Central @ Duke- Blue Devils roll!
Northern Illinois @ FSU- This game could determine whether this really is a lost season for the Seminoles. While the Huskies are a good MAC team, FSU should win this at home.
Kansas @ Baylor- I can't believe I'm saying this, but Kansas wins their 2nd consecutive road game!
Arizona @ Oregon State- I believe the Wildcats have huge problems that need to be solved now. The Beavers pull off the mild upset at home. In a weird twist, both teams' only win has been over Southern Utah.
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt- This could be a sneaky good game, but I'm not yet all in on the Commodores, despite their showing against ND last weekend. Gamecocks win a close one on the road.
UConn @ Syracuse- The Orange stay undefeated against a bad Huskies team.
TCU @ Texas- This is my Upset Special for the week. The Longhorns are coming in off the high of beating USC handily, while the Horned Frogs let the game against Ohio State slip away. This is a question of whether Texas can handle success better than TCU handles adversity.
North Texas @ Liberty- The Mean Green is playing great football right now, while Liberty had an extra week due to Hurricane Florence. If NT is focused, they should have no problems with the Flames. But... this is a classic "trap" game...
McNeese @ BYU- Cougars roll!
Army @ Oklahoma- The Black Knights are going to give the Sooners fits! On their first drive... Sooners win easily.
La Tech @ LSU- As long as the Tigers don't have a let down, they should dominate the Bulldogs. However, La Tech did have an extra week to prepare. Will it be enough? Nope.
Mississippi State @ Kentucky- This could be a great game! Regardless, it will tell us a lot about both of these teams. The Bulldogs win on the road.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State- OSU has a defense. The Red Raiders don't. Cowboys win.
Rice @ Southern Miss- Rice is, quite simply, not very good. Neither is Southern Miss, but they are less bad, and they are at home. Go with the Golden Eagles.
Texas State @ UTSA- Ugh! What a crummy game. Go with the home team, I guess...
UNLV @ Arkansas State- This is a cool game! The Rebels are a middle-of-the-pack MWC team while the Red Wolves are one of the top teams in the SBC, and are at home. Tough pick, but I pick UNLV.
Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana- CCU has a victory over UAB on it's resume', which is more than the Ragin' Cajuns have, though they've only played 2 games. I'm going with the road team.
Troy @ ULM- The Warhawks are a quality SBC team, but Troy seems to be a cut above. The Trojans should win, unless they're still reliving last week's win. Remember, they lost the game after the LSU victory in 2017. Did they learn from their mistake?
NC State @ Marshall- Both teams come in undefeated. Both teams had their game last week "hurricaned" out. Both teams have beaten inferior competition so far. The Wolfpack should be the superior team. NC St wins.
Florida @ Tennessee- This used to be one of the premier games in the SEC every season, but both teams have fallen on hard times. However, the Vols have further to go. Gators win on the road.
Arkansas @ Auburn- Will the Razorbacks win another game in 2018? If they do, it won't be this week. Tigers roll.
Michigan State @ Indiana- The Hoosiers are the undefeated team in this matchup, but undefeated doesn't always mean better, Spartans win a conference game on the road.
New Mexico State @ UTEP- As bad as the game is between Texas State and UTSA is, this one is worse. These 2 teams are a combined 0-7! The Aggies at least won a game last year (they won 7), so go with them over the Miners.
Stanford @ Oregon- This is the game where we find out if the Ducks are for real. They aren't. The Cardinal wins.
ECU @ USF- Bulls win easily. The Pirates are not a good team.
Texas Southern @ Houston- Cougars roll!
South Alabama @ Memphis- The Tigers will win this easily, especially at home.
Wisconsin @ Iowa- I'm tempted to go with the Hawkeyes, but the Badgers will bounce back on the road.
Air Force @ Utah State- The Aggies look to be the better team, and they are at home, so they should win.
Arizona State @ Washington- The Huskies will show the Sun Devils who rules the Pac 12.
Eastern Michigan @ San Diego State- Another MWC-MAC matchup. The Eagles are a good team, but the Aztecs are better. SDSU wins at home.
Duquesne @ Hawai'i- Rainbow Warriors roll!
That's it for now. On Monday, look for the next installment of my TWIF Notes. And don't forget to follow this blog and to leave a comment. Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
Last week was the first time I dipped below 80%,as I finished 50-14, or 78.1%. After 3 weeks, I am 188-42 overall, for a winning percentage of .817, which is still pretty good. However, I have to admit that all the games against FCS competition has really helped my percentage. As we move away from those types of games, it gets a little tougher to predict, but that won't stop me from trying! On to the games!
Thursday, September 20
Tulsa @Temple- Temple got their first victory last week beating a decent Maryland team. Tulsa has played close games against both Texas and Arkansas St. I have a feeling the Owls are better than they showed the first 2 weeks, and are more like the team that won last wee. I'm going with Temple.
Friday, September 21
FAU @ UCF- Will this even be close? FAU is a decent team, but the Knights are way out iof their league. UCF in a walkover.
Penn State @ Illinois- Despite their 2-1 record, the Illini are still one of the worst Power 5 teams around. I don't see any way the Nittany Lions lose this, even if it's on the road.
Washington State @ USC- This is a tough one. The Cougars are 3-0, but they haven't played anyone of consequence. USC is 1-2, though their losses are to Stanford and Texas. However, those losses were not even close. I'm picking Wazzou in a (very mild) upset.
Saturday, September 22
Georgia @ Missouri- This is the game that has me worried as the Tigers have a top notch offense and an ok defense. However, I think the Dawgs pull this one out.
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest- I am very tempted to go with the Demon Deacons, because ND has struggled in every game, even against Ball State and Vandy, but I think the Irish pull out a close one.
Nebraska @ Michigan- The Wolverines should win this easily, but I have a feeling the Cornhuskers are going to play them close, at least into the 2nd half.
Kent State @ Ole Miss- The Golden Flashes aren't Alabama. Rebels roll!
Buffalo @ Rutgers- The Bulls are having a special season. The MAC gets another win over the Big 10!
Minnesota @ Maryland- The Terrapins have been exposed as just another middling team. The Golden Gophers still have hope. Gophers win a close one.
Akron @ Iowa State- The Zips have had a great start to their season, but I don't think they can beat 2 Power 5 teams in a row. Cyclones win a close one.
Boston College @ Purdue- The Boilermakers have to win sometime, don't they? Yes, they do, but not this week. I'm on the Eagle Express. BC wins in another close game.
Ohio @ Cincinnati- The Bearcats have been very good early in the season, and while Ohio is a good MAC team, I don't think they can go on the road and beat Cincy.
Nevada @ Toledo- We don't get too many MWC vs. MAC games. The Wolf Pack has had a good start to their season going 1-1 against Power 5 competition, while Toledo lost its one Power 5 game, albeit against a better team than the either that Nevada has played. I think the Rockets keep it relatively close, but Nevada pulls it out.
Navy @ SMU- So far, the Mustangs have been terrible. Navy has already beaten Memphis, who was favored to win the AAC. Midshipmen win on the road.
Pitt @ North Carolina- UNC has had a terrible start to the season, and got "hurricaned" out last week. The Panthers add the heat on Larry Fedora as the Tar Heels fall at home.
Louisville @ Virginia- The Cavaliers have looked good so far, though in their only game versus a Power 5 team, they lost by 4. Louisville got blown out by Alabama (who hasn't), and squeaked by a mediocre (at best) WKU. This is a conference game between 2 relatively even teams. I'm going with the home team: Cavaliers defeat the Cardinals (just for you, Jeff Moffatt!).
Western Michigan @ Georgia State- Normally, I would go with just about any team outside the SBC against Ga State, but the Panthers are getting better as a program. Plus, they've had an extra day to prepare. Panthers win!
Miami, Ohio @ Bowling Green- These 2 teams are a combined 1-5, but in this case, I'm going with the team that had higher preseason expectations. Redhawks win on the road.
WKU @ Ball State- The Cardinals played Notre Dame close while WKU lost to FCS Maine. I'm not sure what this says about ND and Maine, but I'm going with the home team on this one.
Illinois State @ Colorado State- Rams roll!
Maine @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas are 0-3, but they've played 2 Power 5 teams and Northern Illinois, who is expected to win the MAC West. Maine may be a very good FCS team (see WKU above), but I don't see them winning in Mt. Pleasant. C Mich gets their first win!
Texas A&M @ Alabama- Can the Aggies hang with the Tide? Not likely, but maybe they can be the 1st team to stay within 5 touchdowns.
Clemson @ Georgia Tech- If the Tigers are going to be caught overlooking an opponent, this would be the one. The Yellow Jackets have not been very good so far in 2018, but they have the potential to defeat Clemson. But I don't see it happening.
Tulane @ Ohio State- The Green Wave could really surprise the Buckeyes with their option attack and pull off the huge upset. Oh, who am I kidding? No way the Buckeyes lose this one.
Virginia Tech @ ODU- The Hokies win easily on the road over the Monarchs.
Kansas State @ West Virginia- This could be a sneaky good game! Everyone expects the Mountaineers to challenge Oklahoma for the Big 12 title, but I'm not so sure. However, I don't think the Wildcats have the offense to hang with WVU. Mountaineers win at home.
FIU @ Miami, Florida- The Canes should have no problems with the Panthers.
Gardner-Webb @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers roll!
Charlotte @ UMass- This is another tough game to pick, as they seem to be evenly matched. Usually, I go with the home team in these situations, but I'm picking the 49ers.
NC Central @ Duke- Blue Devils roll!
Northern Illinois @ FSU- This game could determine whether this really is a lost season for the Seminoles. While the Huskies are a good MAC team, FSU should win this at home.
Kansas @ Baylor- I can't believe I'm saying this, but Kansas wins their 2nd consecutive road game!
Arizona @ Oregon State- I believe the Wildcats have huge problems that need to be solved now. The Beavers pull off the mild upset at home. In a weird twist, both teams' only win has been over Southern Utah.
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt- This could be a sneaky good game, but I'm not yet all in on the Commodores, despite their showing against ND last weekend. Gamecocks win a close one on the road.
UConn @ Syracuse- The Orange stay undefeated against a bad Huskies team.
TCU @ Texas- This is my Upset Special for the week. The Longhorns are coming in off the high of beating USC handily, while the Horned Frogs let the game against Ohio State slip away. This is a question of whether Texas can handle success better than TCU handles adversity.
North Texas @ Liberty- The Mean Green is playing great football right now, while Liberty had an extra week due to Hurricane Florence. If NT is focused, they should have no problems with the Flames. But... this is a classic "trap" game...
McNeese @ BYU- Cougars roll!
Army @ Oklahoma- The Black Knights are going to give the Sooners fits! On their first drive... Sooners win easily.
La Tech @ LSU- As long as the Tigers don't have a let down, they should dominate the Bulldogs. However, La Tech did have an extra week to prepare. Will it be enough? Nope.
Mississippi State @ Kentucky- This could be a great game! Regardless, it will tell us a lot about both of these teams. The Bulldogs win on the road.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State- OSU has a defense. The Red Raiders don't. Cowboys win.
Rice @ Southern Miss- Rice is, quite simply, not very good. Neither is Southern Miss, but they are less bad, and they are at home. Go with the Golden Eagles.
Texas State @ UTSA- Ugh! What a crummy game. Go with the home team, I guess...
UNLV @ Arkansas State- This is a cool game! The Rebels are a middle-of-the-pack MWC team while the Red Wolves are one of the top teams in the SBC, and are at home. Tough pick, but I pick UNLV.
Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana- CCU has a victory over UAB on it's resume', which is more than the Ragin' Cajuns have, though they've only played 2 games. I'm going with the road team.
Troy @ ULM- The Warhawks are a quality SBC team, but Troy seems to be a cut above. The Trojans should win, unless they're still reliving last week's win. Remember, they lost the game after the LSU victory in 2017. Did they learn from their mistake?
NC State @ Marshall- Both teams come in undefeated. Both teams had their game last week "hurricaned" out. Both teams have beaten inferior competition so far. The Wolfpack should be the superior team. NC St wins.
Florida @ Tennessee- This used to be one of the premier games in the SEC every season, but both teams have fallen on hard times. However, the Vols have further to go. Gators win on the road.
Arkansas @ Auburn- Will the Razorbacks win another game in 2018? If they do, it won't be this week. Tigers roll.
Michigan State @ Indiana- The Hoosiers are the undefeated team in this matchup, but undefeated doesn't always mean better, Spartans win a conference game on the road.
New Mexico State @ UTEP- As bad as the game is between Texas State and UTSA is, this one is worse. These 2 teams are a combined 0-7! The Aggies at least won a game last year (they won 7), so go with them over the Miners.
Stanford @ Oregon- This is the game where we find out if the Ducks are for real. They aren't. The Cardinal wins.
ECU @ USF- Bulls win easily. The Pirates are not a good team.
Texas Southern @ Houston- Cougars roll!
South Alabama @ Memphis- The Tigers will win this easily, especially at home.
Wisconsin @ Iowa- I'm tempted to go with the Hawkeyes, but the Badgers will bounce back on the road.
Air Force @ Utah State- The Aggies look to be the better team, and they are at home, so they should win.
Arizona State @ Washington- The Huskies will show the Sun Devils who rules the Pac 12.
Eastern Michigan @ San Diego State- Another MWC-MAC matchup. The Eagles are a good team, but the Aztecs are better. SDSU wins at home.
Duquesne @ Hawai'i- Rainbow Warriors roll!
That's it for now. On Monday, look for the next installment of my TWIF Notes. And don't forget to follow this blog and to leave a comment. Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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