Paul's Picks Week 5

Welcome Back!

Last week was not a good week as I was only 46-16, or 74.2%.  After 4 weeks, I am 234-58 for a winning percentage of .801, which is still pretty good, but it looks like I'm heading toward being below 80%.  Upsets will do that to my percentage, especially when I pick the wrong ones.  On to the games!

Thursday, September 27

UNC @ Miami, Fla- The Tar Heels got a win last week, but I'm not sure they can replicate that feat on the road at Miami.  Hurricanes move to 4-1.

Friday, September 28

Memphis @ Tulane- The Tigers should have no problems with the Green Wave as they even their conference record.

UCLA @ Colorado- I'm tempted to pick the upset here because the Bruins are coming in off a bye.  But so are the Buffalos.  Colorado stays undefeated.

Saturday, September 29

Indiana @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights are a terrible team.  The Hoosiers should win this one easily.

Louisiana @ Alabama- Tide rolls. (I know you're surprised, right?)

Syracuse @ Clemson- Both of these teams come in undefeated, and the Orange won last year in a huge upset, but lightening isn't going to strike twice.  Tigers win.

West Virginia @ Texas Tech- While I'm not convinced that the Mountaineers are a legitimate challenger in the Big 12, I'm also not convinced that the Red Raiders did any more than catch lightning in a bottle last week when they beat Oklahoma State.  WVU wins a close one.

Central Michigan @ Michigan State- The Spartans should win this easily.

Arkansas @ Texas A&M- The Razorbacks are a bad team while TAMU is perhaps the best 2-loss team in CFB.  Aggies roll.

Army @ Buffalo- I really want to go with the Bulls, but I think the Black Knights pull out a close one.

Oklahoma State @ Kansas- The Jayhawks are done winning.  The Cowboys bounce back with a big win over Kansas.

Temple @ Boston College- The Owls have won 2 straight while the Eagles are coming off their first loss.  BC wins a close game and pulls away in the 4th quarter.

Bowling Green @ Georgia Tech- I keep going with the Yellow Jackets and they keep losing.  However, I don't see the Falcons winning this on the road.  Jackets with the win.

Virginia @ NC State-The Wolfpack are undefeated, but their best win is against Marshall, whose best win is against Miami, Ohio.  The Cavaliers have been dominant in their 3 wins, and their only loss was by 4 at Indiana.  I'm picking Virginia in a mild upset.

UMass @ Ohio- This is a tough one to pick as these teams look relatively even.  Usually in these situations, I go with the home team, but this time, I'm picking the Minutemen.

ULM @ Georgia State- I really want the Panthers to be good.  I really do.  But the Warhawks will win this.

Kent State @ Ball State- Who knows?  Go with the home team.

Tennessee @ Georgia- I've gotten less and less confident about this game as the week has gone on.  UT has been successful running the ball, and the Dawgs have struggled a bit stopping the run.  A turnover or 2 at the wrong times (is there ever a right time?), and a special team big play from the Vols could make this tight and make them think they have a chance, but I still think the Dawgs win.

Baylor @ Oklahoma- The Bears are 3-1.  They'll be 3-2 after this game.  Sooners roll.

Pitt @ UCF- The Golden Knights will win, but it will be close for a half or so.

Texas @ Kansas State- Is Texas back?  No one knows for sure, but they should beat a mediocre Wildcats team.  Longhorns win late.

Cincinnati @ UConn- The Bearcats stay undefeated, surpassing their win total from all of 2017.

ODU @ ECU- Was last week a fluke for ODU, or the start of something big?  This game won't answer that question as ECU is not a very good team.  Monarchs win.

Coastal Carolina @ Troy- Both teams come in at 3-1, but the Trojans are much better than the Chanticleers.  I'll be surprised if this isn't a rout.

Western Michigan @ Miami, Ohio- The Broncos have won 2 straight, but against lesser competition.  The Redhawks have played a more difficult schedule and have a conference win.  Miami wins.

South Alabama @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers will have no problems with the Jaguars.

Rice @ Wake Forest- Even though the Demon Deacons have lost 2 straight, they should win easily against a bad Owls team.

Purdue @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers continue their miserable season with another loss at home.

FSU @ Louisville- Neither of these teams have a quality win (or even a quality loss).  Which team is less bad?  I think the Seminoles will win and will start to gain some confidence.

Southern Miss @ Auburn- Tigers/War Eagles/Plainsmen roll.

Tennessee State @ Vandy- Commodores roll!

Nevada @ Air Force- Neither of these teams has distinguished themselves, but I like Nevada's win over Oregon St more than the Falcons' close loss to Utah State.  Wolfpack win a close one.

Michigan @ Northwestern- The Big 10 East has been much better than the West, and that continues as the Wolverines fight off a determined Wildcats team vying for an upset.

Florida @ Mississippi State- I'm tempted to pick the Gators here, as I think they are better than most people think, but with the game being in Starkville, I think the Bulldogs prevail.

Utah @ Washington State- Utah has a chance to win the PAC 12 South, but they better win this one.  Utes pull out a close one over the Cougars.

Liberty @ New Mexico- The Lobos should handle the Flames at home, but it will be close.

Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles are much improved, but are not yet ready to challenge the Red Wolves for conference supremacy.

Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles are going to pull off the upset at home!

Va Tech @ Duke- Even though their starting QB was injured in week 1, I like the Blue Devils to continue their winning ways, but they better not take the Hokies lightly.

Houston Baptist @ SMU- Mustangs roll!

UTEP @ UTSA- In a game between two terrible teams, go with the home team.  Roadrunners win a close one over the Miners.

FAU @ Middle Tennessee- The Owls are not the team they were last year, but they're still better than the Blue Raiders.  FAU wins a close one.

Boise State @ Wyoming- The Broncos have had a week to lick their wounds after the beating they took at the hands of Okla St.  The Cowboys are also off a bye, and are looking for revenge from last year's loss, but Boise State wins this in the 2nd half.

Hawai'i @ San Jose State- The Rainbow Warriors are 4-1 while the Spartans have yet to win a game.  I expect Hawai'i to win this one easily.

Charlotte @ UAB- The Blazers are one of the best teams in CUSA, and Charlotte is still getting their feet wet in FBS.  UAB wins at home.

Iowa State @ TCU- The Horned Frogs are coming off their 2nd consecutive loss, but the Cyclones aren't sneaking up on anyone this year.  TCU gets their revenge for last year's loss.

Ohio State @ Penn State- What a great matchup!  The winner of this has the inside track for the division title, the Big 10 title, and a playoff berth.  The Lions always play tough at home, but this Buckeye team is just too talented and focused to let this one get away.  Rarely do the Buckeyes fade in the spotlight; their losses usually come in unexpected ways.  OSU wins on the road.

Stanford @ Notre Dame- Another great game! The Fighting Irish seem to have found their offense with Ian Book at QB.  Stanford is struggling to run the ball.  Bad combination.  Irish win.

South Carolina @ Kentucky- With the Wildcats becoming the trendy dark horse pick in the SEC, I worry that it will go to their heads.  If they stay focused and keep their heads down, they will win this, but the Gamecocks will give them all they can handle.  Wildcats win.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ FIU- When, oh when, will these FBS vs. FCS matchups end? Panthers roll.

La Tech @ North Texas- The Mean Green are having a magical season so far, but the Bulldogs have a longer history of success, and gave LSU all they could handle last week.  La Tech in a close one.

Marshall @ WKU- I believe the Thundering Herd will challenge FAU for the division title.  The Hilltoppers will not pose much of a challenge.  Marshall wins.

BYU @ Washington- Yet another great game!  The stakes are high in this one.  BYU could establish as a contender for a New Year's Six Bowl, while Washington must win to keep their playoff hopes alive.  And by extension, a Husky win would enhance Stanford's case should the Cardinal beat Notre Dame and win the PAC 12.

Ole Miss @ LSU- The only way the Bayou Bengals lose this is if they are caught being full of themselves and looking ahead to Florida.  Not gonna happen.  LSU wins.

Oregon State @ Arizona State- The shine is off the Sun Devils as they have lost 2 straight after a 2-0 start.  However, no way should they lose to a poor Beavers team.  ASU wins.

Oregon @ California- The Ducks suffered their first loss of the season last week, losing to Stanford in OT.  Cal had an off week and hopes to continue their great start to the season.  I think Oregon stumbles again and the Golden Bears open their conference slate with a victory.

USC @ Arizona- The Wildcats have done the opposite as their rivals in Tempe, losing their first 2 and winning their last 2.  USC doesn't seem to have much of a defense.  Arizona continues their winning streak.

Toledo @ Fresno State- These are 2 good G5 teams, but Fresno is coming off a bye and is at home.  Bulldogs win a close one over the Rockets.  I expect a lot of points to be scored!

That's it for now.  On Monday, look for the next installment of my TWIF Notes.  And don't forget to follow this blog and to leave a comment.  Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!