TWIF Notes 9/24/18

Welcome Back!

What an interesting weekend of games! As usually happens, when there doesn't appear to be much drama in store, that's when it all happens.  We had some surprising outcomes, and some routs in what were expected to be close games.  Let's jump right in!

Teams who won against FBS competition, exactly as expected

Appalachian State

Duke

BYU

Houston

Hawai'i

Teams who struggled with FCS teams, but won

Central Michigan beat Maine by the odd score of 17-5.

Teams who LOST to FCS teams

Colorado State lost to Illinois State.  Mike Bobo may be in real trouble, as the Rams drop to 1-4.

FBS vs. FBS games

Temple defeated Tulsa 31-17 on Thursday night to get their conference slate off to a good start.  Tulsa is not expected to do much as they fall to 1-3.  However, the Golden Hurrican have been relatively close in all their losses, so they may sneak up on someone and pull the upset, maybe at home versus USF.

UCF dominated FAU 56-36 on Friday to run their winning streak to 16 games.  They have a home game against Pitt this weekend, which is one of only 4 teams remaining on the schedule that could beat them (@Memphis, Navy, @USF).  FAU is thrilled that they are heading into conference play, but they do not seem as far ahead of their conference foes as they were last year.  I expect one or two losses in conference play this year.

Penn State trailed Illinois 24-21 in the 3rd quarter before reeling off 42 straight points to win 63-24, also on Friday Night.  The Nittany Lions have a huge home game against Ohio State on Saturday, while the Illini are off before traveling to Rutgers to take on the Scarlet Knights.

USC squeaked by Washington State 39-36, also on Friday night, handing the Cougars their first loss of the season.  The Cougars must now host Utah, while USC travels to Arizona to face a rejuvenated Wildcat team.  It seems like the PAC 12 South will be a race to the bottom as no team looks capable of running away with the division.

Georgia defeated Missouri 43-29, but did not look very good in doing so.  Both the offensive and defensive lines appear to be struggling, both with rushing and in stopping the run.  For some reasons, both Middle Tennessee and Missouri ran very successfully up the middle, and then just stopped trying that.  I'm not sure that Tennessee this weekend or Vanderbilt next weekend can exploit those weaknesses, but you better believe that LSU, Auburn, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech can.  And maybe Florida (more on them later).  Missouri has a really good offense, but they suffered too many dropped balls, turnovers, and gave up way too many big plays.

Notre Dame rolled into Winston-Salem and slammed Wake Forest 56-27.  Changing to Ian Book at QB seems to have ignited the Irish offense, and they'll need all they can muster against Stanford this week.  The Demon Deacons host Rice, so that should get them back in the win column after 2 straight losses.  Notre Dame's strength of schedule has taken a real hit, with several of their future opponents, who looked like good teams, have struggled.  These include Virginia Tech, Pitt, Navy, Northwestern, FSU, Syracuse, and USC.  Do any of these teams look capable of upsetting the Irish?  Not if they keep playing like they have this year.

Michigan absolutely destroyed Nebraska 56-10, after leading 39-0 at halftime, and it very well could have been worse, if they had chosen not to call off the dogs.  The Cornhuskers have real problems, and I'm not sure they have a win on their schedule (except the replacement game against Bethune-Cookman on October 27).  If only they played Rutgers...  Michigan, on the other hand, has rebounded nicely from their opening loss to Notre Dame.  But it's hard to believe in them until they actually win a big game or a rivalry game.  They seem capable, but we thought the same thing each of the last 2 years.

Buffalo notched another Big 10 skin on the wall for the MAC as they dominated Rutgers 42-13.  The Bulls are riding high with their first 4-0 start since they joined the FBS ranks.  However, they take on Army this weekend, and have their conference games to go through, but I think they are a threat to win the East division.  On the other hand, Rutgers is an absolute disaster.  In their last 3 games (all losses), they have been outscored 149-30 by Ohio State (no surprise), Kansas, and Buffalo.

Maryland handed Minnesota their first loss 42-13, ending any hopes the Gophers had of going undefeated (tiny though those hopes were).  Minnesota now has a bye week before hosting Iowa for homecoming (Iowa also has a bye).  Maryland also has a bye before travelling to Michigan over the next 2 weeks.  This is a team that's a little hard to figure out, sometimes looking very good, and other times looking very ordinary.  

Iowa State got their first win by defeating the previously undefeated Akron Zips 26-13.  The Cyclones have a tough 3 week stretch ahead of them- @TCU, @Okla St, West Virginia- that could make or break their season.  While none of those teams are overwhelming, they are all capable of blowing out the Cyclones, which would end all the good feelings Coach Matt Campbell has built up.  Akron has only conference games remaining, so all of their goals are still available to them (except for an undefeated season, of course).  They host Miami this Saturday.

Purdue blew out Boston College 30-13, earning their first win and ending any speculation that the Eagles could challenge Clemson in the ACC.  The Boilermakers have a good chance to run their record to .500 as they play @Nebraska and @Illinois over the next 3 weeks, but then must play Ohio State, @Mich St, and Iowa over the succeeding 3 weeks.  It may be tough for them to gain bowl eligibility.  Boston College plays Temple this weekend, and then gets into the meat of their conference schedule.  They could certainly still upset Clemson, but they won't win the division as they don't seem to have the depth or talent to run the table in the conference, or even to finish with just one loss.

Cincinnati eased by Ohio 34-30 to move to 4-0, their best start since 2012 (where they started 5-0).  They have a chance to tie or exceed that mark as they play UConn and then host Tulane for homecoming, neither of which is a daunting task.  The best news for the Bearcats is that they have already equaled last year's win total!  Ohio has one more non-conference game against UMass before finishing the year with 8 straight conference games.  

Toledo won a high scoring game over Nevada 63-44 to move to 2-1with their loss being to Miami, Florida.  They must travel to take on a very good Fresno State team this weekend before starting their conference slate.  Nevada finished their non-conference games 2-2, and travel to Air Force Saturday.

SMU upset Navy 31-30 in overtime, going for 2 and succeeding (obviously) in the first OT.  This drops the Midshipmen to 2-2 overall and 1-1 in the conference.  They still hold the tie-breaker edge over Memphis, but they just blew their margin for error.  The Mustangs go for their 2nd win against Houston Baptist, and then must travel to UCF.

North Carolina got their first win by defeating Pittsburgh 38-35.  The Tar Heels have beaten only 2 conference foes over their last 11 conference games, and both of their wins are against Pitt.  In fact, they have only won 3 of their last 16 games against FBS foes (their other win was over ODU in 2017).  Pitt is one of those up and down teams, and very inconsistent.  They play @UCF this weekend while UNC travels to Miami, Fla.

Virginia crushed Louisville 27-3.  The Cavaliers may be better than anyone expected.  Or this could just be fool's gold.  We'll know more after they take on NC State in Raleigh on Saturday.  The Cardinals do not look like a good team.  Their game against FSU this weekend could decide who stays out of the basement of the ACC Atlantic.

Western Michigan traveled to Atlanta to defeat Georgia State 34-15.  This was a game I thought the Panthers would win (it was not a good week, prediction-wise, for me), but the Broncos pulled away in the 2nd quarter.  Like most of the rest of the MAC teams, WMU only has conference games left.  Ga State goes into conference play 1-3, so they must go 5-3 in conference to reach bowl eligibility.  It's possible, but that would not represent progress, as that was last year's conference record.  I'm not sure they can even win 5 more games, as they play ULM, @Troy, @Ark St, @App St, and Ga Southern.  Assuming they win their remaining games (not a sure thing), they would need to win 2 of those 5 games to get to 5-3.  Do you see 2 wins there?  Not unless there is massive improvement.

Miami, Ohio took care of Bowling Green 38-23 to earn their 1st win, and leave both teams at 1-3.  I expect the Redhawks to challenge Ohio, Akron, and Buffalo for the division crown.  Bowling Green travels to Georgia Tech this weekend.

WKU got their first win by defeating Ball State 28-20, and these 2 are also each 1-3.  The Cardinals host Kent St on Saturday while the Hilltoppers host Marshall.  With their loss to Maine a couple of weeks ago, it may be difficult for WKU to make it to bowl eligibility in 2018.

Alabama wiped out Texas A&M 45-23, which only proved that someone CAN play within 37 points of the Tide, and that they can even not get doubled up in scoring.  Alabama will not get challenged until November 3rd, when they travel to LSU, and even that may not be a challenge, if LSU turns out to be another example of fool's gold.  The Aggies will need to regroup and not let the Tide beat them twice, but they shouldn't have any problems with Arkansas this weekend.

Clemson crushed Georgia Tech 49-21.  This seems to be a bad Tech team, and I only see 1-4 more possible victories (yes, I included Georgia since it's a rivalry game).  The real question is, can anyone in the ACC defeat Clemson?

Ohio State walloped Tulane 49-6 to remain undefeated.  Not much more to say here that hasn't already been said elsewhere, so I'll just leave it at that.

ODU, 0-3 coming in, stunned Va Tech (2-0 coming in) 49-35.  This is as puzzling a result as any I've seen this year.  The Hokies looked like a team that could challenge Clemson, but they sure don't now.  ODU had lost to Liberty, FIU, and Charlotte by a combined score of 108-55, and had not scored more than 25 points in any game. This outcome just baffles me...

West Virginia stayed undefeated with a 35-6 victory over Kansas State.  Usually, the Wildcats under Bill Snyder have overachieved, but it looks like they are exactly what they are this year.  The Mountaineers are expected to be one of the top teams in the Big 12, but I'm still not convinced.  Their schedule is severely back-loaded, with their first big game being against Texas November 3, but their game this weekend at Texas Tech now looks intriguing.

Miami, Fla dropped FIU 31-17.  This tells us absolutely nothing about either of these teams.

UMass defeated Charlotte 49-31 to up their record to 2-3, and they may have turned a corner after a rough start.  They have at least 4 winnable games, so they have a shot at bowl eligibility.  

FSU evened their record at 2-2 by easily beating Northern Illinois 37-19.  I'm not sure how many more games they're going to win, though, as there are no "gimmes" left on their schedule.  NIU is expected to be one of the better teams in the MAC, and they better be if they want to overcome their 1-3 start, though their losses are to Iowa, Utah, and FSU, with 2 of those on the road.

Baylor won at home over Kansas 26-7, probably confining the Jayhawks to the basement.  I don't see either team winning any of their remaining games, barring a huge upset.

Arizona went on the road and crushed Oregon State 35-14.  The Wildcats seem to have rebounded from their horrible start, and now look to stay unbeaten in the PAC 12 as they host a mediocre USC this weekend.  Oregon St is a bad team...

South Carolina went to Vandy and won 37-14, and now must travel to take on undefeated Kentucky, who they have not beaten since 2013.  The Commodores have been knocked back down to Earth after their high flying 2-0 start.  After a win over Tenn St this weekend, they must travel to Georgia for UGA's homecoming game.  Can they get to 6 wins? to do so, they would need to win 3 of their last 6: Florida, @Kentucky, @Arkansas, @Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee.

Syracuse destroyed UConn 51-21 to remain undefeated.  Can they win at Clemson for their 2nd win in a row in the series?  Probably not...

Texas upset TCU 31-16, and the Longhorns look like another team that has shaken off a slow start to the season.  TCU appears to have let Ohio St beat them twice.  The Horned Frogs now host Iowa St while Texas travels to Kansas St.

North Texas crushed Liberty 47-7, and the Mean Green move to 4-0.  They host La Tech in a key CUSA West matchup.

Oklahoma escaped its game against Army 28-21 in OT.  You know, every great team seems to have at least one scare in their season.  Could this be Oklahoma's?  Or is this an indication of a crack in the Sooners' armor?  The Sooners host Baylor this weekend while Army travels to Buffalo.

LSU defeated La Tech 38-21 to remain undefeated, and they now host Ole Miss this Saturday.

In a battle of undefeated SEC teams, Kentucky blasted Miss State 28-7.  It's becoming more and more obvious that the Wildcats' win over Florida is more a product of how good they are, as opposed to how bad Florida is (who may not be bad at all!).  Kentucky has another challenge as South Carolina comes to town.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs host Florida.

Texas Tech obliterated Oklahoma State 41-17 in one of the more surprising results of the season so far.  It was assumed that, after the Cowboys mauled Boise State, that they would be one of the key challengers to Oklahoma in the Big 12, and they still may, but this sure knocks them down a peg or 4.  The Red Raiders sure look a lot better since their opening loss to Ole Miss, but can they prove they're for real by winning against WVU this weekend?

Southern Miss beat Rice 40-22.  This was a game to decide which team gets to finish right ahead of last place UTEP in the CUSA West Division.

UTSA eked out a win over Texas State.  I know all of you were glued to the ESPN Gamecast of this one...

Arkansas State eased past UNLV 27-20 to move to 3-1.  The Red Wolves are one of the better teams in the SBC.

Coastal Carolina defeated Louisiana 30-28 in a key SBC contest.  The Chanticleers are now 2-2 and need just 4 more wins for bowl eligibility in their first year.  Can they do it?

Troy won over ULM 35-27 in another key SBC game.  

NC State went to Marshall and defeated the Thundering Herd 37-20.  The Wolfpack have a key ACC game as they host Virginia this Saturday.

Florida demolished Tennessee 47-21 in a game that was not as close as the score indicates.  At 3-1, the Gators have a chance to stamp themselves as a challenger to Georgia in the SEC East these next 2 weeks as they travel to Miss State and host LSU.  Win those 2, and the Dawgs will be on notice.

Auburn slaughtered Arkansas 34-3.  Was anyone surprised?

Michigan State knocked Indiana from the ranks of the undefeated by a score of 35-21.  The Spartans host C Michigan while the Hoosiers play at Rutgers.  Both should win.

New Mexico State won at UTEP 27-20, moving to 1-4 and dropping the Miners to 0-4.  

Stanford had an incredible comeback to defeat Oregon in OT, 38-31, in a battle of undefeated teams.  The Cardinal took advantage of 2 Oregon miscues to turn the game to their favor.  The Ducks better be ready for their visit to Cal, and not let this loss affect them.  Stanford travels to Notre Dame in a matchup of AP Top Ten teams.

USF got by ECU 20-13.  The Bulls remain undefeated, but this win was somewhat less than impressive.  They have a bye week before travelling to UMass.

Memphis trounced South Alabama 52-35

Wisconsin defeated Iowa 28-17 for their 3rd straight victory in the series.  Both teams are off this week.

Utah State won a key MWC matchup over Air Force 42-32.  The Aggies may challenge Boise St in the MWC Mountain Division.

Washington held on to beat Arizona State 27-20, and the shine has come off the Sun Devils.  The Huskies host BYU this weekend in what could be an elimination game for consideration in a New Year's Six Bowl.

San Diego State won 23-20 over Eastern Michigan in OT.  The last 13 losses by the Eagles, stretching back to 2016, have been by 15 points or less, with 9 of them by 7 points or less.  This is a hard luck team.  

That's all for now!  Sorry this was so late, but I was away for the weekend and it just took me a while to churn this out.  I really get excited when I think I've found a little nugget of info no one else has.  And then I read the same info on another website.  But I had it first!  Even if it's not published first (and it looks like I copied it from somewhere else, but I didn't). Rest assured, all of my stats I do on my own, and without a research department. 

 Feel free to leave a comment and let me know what you think.  Come back tomorrow for my new Power Rankings.  Until then, may you and your loved ones be blessed!