Paul's Picks Week 9

Welcome Back!

Last week I was 46-9 for a tremendous 83.6%!  I actually won the AJC Pick 'em contest last week, getting 14 out of 15 right!  But to be honest, there wasn't much drama last week, so my doing well was not surprising.  After 8 weeks, I am 394-122, for a very respectable winning percentage of .764, but I don't think I'm getting back to 80% (which is always my goal).  My goal now is to stay above 75%.  This week, there are a lot of games that could go either way, so I don't expect to be above 80% again. On to the games!

Thursday, October 25

Baylor @ West Virginia- The Mountaineers suffered their 1st loss 2 weeks ago, but have had 2 weeks to fix their problems.  Baylor is much improved, and is also off a bye, but I don't think the Bears can win in Morgantown.  WVU wins a close one.

Ball State @ Ohio- The Bobcats just keep bobbing along (pun intended!). They should win this one easily.

Toledo @ Western Michigan- The Rockets have been somewhat of a disappointment this year, but the Broncos have been outstanding at 4-0 in the MAC and 6-2 overall (and on an overall 6-game winning streak).  Their only 2 losses were to Syracuse and Michigan.  WMU makes it 7 in a row.

Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern- The Mountaineers are an OT loss to Penn State in the opener from being undefeated.  The Eagles have had a tremendous season so far, with their only loss to Clemson, and are at home, but ASU wins a close hard fought game.

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech- I'm tempted to go with the Jackets here, but I've been burned too often this year.  Hokies win in a rout.

Friday, October 26

La Tech @ FAU- The Owls were expected to dominate CUSA, but are 1-2 and have lost 3 of their last 4.  The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have won 3 of their last 4 and are 3-1.  LT wins on the road.

Miami @ Boston College- Everybody has jumped off the Miami bandwagon after their loss to Virginia 2 weeks ago, but I think they will have fixed much of their problems during their bye week.  BC is a good team, but the Hurricanes get it done in a close one.

Indiana @ Minnesota- The Hoosiers have played several of the Big 10's top teams relatively close, while the Gophers have been blown out in all 4 conference games, including last week's loss to previously winless Nebraska.  IU wins easily.

Wyoming @ Colorado State- I was high on both of these teams early in the season (which may have caused some of you to wonder if I really was...), but they have both had disappointing seasons so far.  The Rams have shown progress of late, winning 2 of their last 3 while Wyoming has lost 4 straight (albeit to the top MWC teams).  Rams in a (very) mild upset at home.

Utah @ UCLA- I really think the Bruins have turned their season around, but the Utes have looked nigh unbeatable the last 3 weeks.  Utah wins a close one, but don't be surprised if I'm wrong.

Saturday, October 27

Clemson @ FSU- The Seminoles have won 3 of their last 4 after a rough start, but they won't be able to challenge the Tigers.  The game is close for a quarter before Clemson pulls away and wins big.

Wisconsin @ Northwestern- I have no idea what to make of the Wildcats as they have been wildly inconsistent: beating Purdue, losing to Duke and Akron, taking a 17-point lead on Michigan before losing by 3, beating Mich St, then squeaking by Nebraska (in OT) and Rutgers.  The Badgers are still a good team, though not as good as the last couple of years, but they still have a shot at 10 wins, which is nothing to sneeze at.  UW wins a close one.

Vanderbilt @ Arkansas- As always, Vandy seems on the verge of a breakthrough every week before lack of depth does them in.  However, this week they face a team with similar depth issues.  Commodores defeat the Razorbacks, but it won't be easy.

Texas Tech @ Iowa State- The Red Raiders are on the verge of finally breaking through into the upper echelon of the Big 12, but they have a tough homestretch.  If they want to be considered one of the best in the Big 12, they must win this game.  The Cyclones have had an off week, and are coming off 2 wins against superior foes, but I don't think they can make it 3 in a row.  TT wins a close one.

Purdue @ Michigan State- Are the Boilermakers true threats to win the Big 10 West? If they want to win the division, they have to win games like these.  I believe they kick the Spartans while they're down.  Purdue wins.

Wake Forest @ Louisville- Neither of these teams are any good, so don't waste your time watching this game (unless you're an alumnus).  The Cardinals have no offense or defense.  At least WF can score (except against Clemson).  Go with the Demon Deacons.

UMass @ UConn- Another game between 2 miserable teams.  Picking these are like flipping a coin.  Go with the home team.  It's as good a reason as any...

Army @ Eastern Michigan- The Black Knights are 5-2 and on a roll (hopefully without real caissons), but the Eagles have done very well against a tough schedule and are battle tested.  I could see this going either way, but I think Army has enough firepower and will keep the EMU offense off the field with long drives.  However, if they turn the ball over 2+ times, all bets are off!  Army in a close one.

Central Michigan @ Akron- The Chippewas are a terrible MAC team, while the Zips are only mediocre.  Akron wins at home.

Bethune Cookman @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers buy a win to make up for their cancelled game against Akron.  If they win this and the next 4, they'll be bowl eligible! Huskers roll!

North Carolina @ Virginia- The Cavaliers have quietly put together a very nice start to their season, while the Tar Heels have been mostly terrible, though they have played close games the last 2 weeks.  UVA wins, but it will be close.

Southern Miss @ Charlotte- These are 2 mediocre CUSA teams, and neither have beaten anyone of consequence.  I pick the Eagles for no particular reason...

Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State- Both of these teams have looked good at times, but the Panthers have played a tougher schedule and are a little more battle hardened.  GSU wins.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma- The Wildcats have been pretty underwhelming this season, but are coming off a bye, but I don't think they could beat the Sooners coming off a 6 month bye.  OU wins easily.

TCU @ Kansas- The Horned Frogs have not been up to standard this year, but the season will be a disaster if they lose to the Jayhawks.  They won't.

Oregon State @ Colorado- The Beavers have a lot of rebuilding to do to be competitive, and they won't be much of a challenge for the Buffs.  CU wins in a rout.

Florida vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)- The Bulldogs SHOULD win this game, but that doesn't win they will.  The Gators are playing with a lot of confidence, especially since they defeated the same LSU squad that just routed Georgia.  The line for this started at 10, but has shrunk to 6.5 (maybe further), so evidently many are nervous about this one.  The WLOCP this year will go to the Dawgs for the 2nd year in a row, but it's going to be a LOT tougher than last year...

Iowa @ Penn State- This is a crucial game for both teams.  Iowa needs to win to stay in the division race and the Lions need to win to keep from sliding into irrelevancy.  The Hawkeyes will win, but it won't be decided until late.

USF @ Houston- The Bulls are undefeated, but 4 of their 7 wins have been by 1 score, all to lesser competition.  The Cougars have won 4 straight, and looked dominant in doing so.  UH wins as USF's luck runs out.

Arizona State @ USC- The Trojans suffered their 2nd conference defeat last weekend against Utah, giving everyone in the PAC 12 South at least 2 losses.  The Sun Devils have cooled off (a lot) since their strong start.  The Trojans will win this, but it won't be easy.

Illinois @ Maryland- The Terps have been wildly inconsistent, but they shouldn't have a problem beating the Illini at home.

Duke @ Pitt- The Blue Devils have done well against every team it has faced that's not from the state of Virginia.  Since the Panthers are from Pennsylvania, Duke wins.

Middle Tennessee @ ODU- The Blue Raiders have had a decent season, and are one of the top teams in CUSA.  The Monarchs have had 2 of the most inexplicable wins of the season- over Va Tech and last week's unbelievable finish against WKU.  MT should win this, but with ODU, you never know what you're going to get.

Northern Illinois @ BYU- The Huskies are the cream of the crop in the MAC, but the Cougars are not in the MAC.  BYU wins at home.

Cincinnati @ SMU- The Bearcats had their undefeated season ended last week, and the Mustangs are a dangerous team, so they better be prepared and not let Temple beat them twice.  UC wins, but it will go down to the wire.

Kentucky @ Missouri- The Wildcats have been building for this, and are chomping at the bit to take on Georgia at home next week.  As long as they focused on the Tigers this week, they should have no problems going into that game at 7-1.

New Mexico @ Utah State- The Aggies should have no problems with the Lobos at home.

Rice @ North Texas- The Mean Green should have no problems with the Owls at home.

Washington @ California- The Huskies have played very well since their opening loss to Auburn losing only to Oregon in OT.  Cal is just a mediocre PAC 12 team.  UW crushes the Bears.

UNLV @ San Jose State- The Spartans could get their 1st win of 2018, but they won't.

Washington State at Stanford- The Cougars are legit, and the Cardinal do not look to be as strong of a team as they have been. WSU stays on track for a winner-take-all Apple Cup on Nov 23.

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State- The Aggies have only lost to the #1 and #2 teams in the nation.  The Bulldogs have lost to Kentucky, Florida, and LSU.  Aggies win in Starkville.

NC State @ Syracuse- The Wolfpack were exposed last weekend as a mediocre team that fattened up on an easy schedule.  The Orange have played well against a much tougher slate.  SU wins.

Boise State @ Air Force- The Broncos may not be as dominant as they have been in the past, but they're still better than the Falcons.  BS wins.

Arkansas State @ Louisiana- The Red Wolves have played a very difficult schedule so far, which is why their record doesn't look very good.  But make no mistake about it, this is still one of the best teams in the SBC.  All of the Ragin' Cajun's wins have come against bottom feeders, but their losses to CCU and App St were close.  This could be a sneaky good game, but ASU wins in the end.

Tulane @ Tulsa- This game between 2 of the worst teams in the AAC barely moves the needle on the interest scale.  But I'll pick it anyway: Tulane wins due to their win over Memphis.

New Mexico State @ Texas State- Really? Go with the Aggies.

UAB over UTEP- The Miners have played much better of late, losing their last 4 games each by 9 points or less.  I believe they will get a win this season, but it won't be this week.  Blazers win.

Tennessee @ South Carolina- The Volunteers broke their 11-game SEC losing streak 2 weeks ago, but the Alabama loss last week started a new one.  The Gamecocks are coming off a bye, so they will hand UT they're 2nd loss in a row.

FIU @ WKU- The Panthers have quietly taken over the CUSA East lead.  The Hilltoppers are just plain awful.  FIU rolls!

Notre Dame @ Navy- The Fighting Irish are rolling toward an undefeated season, and the Midshipmen have struggled, but they better not take Navy lightly, as their offense can chew up yardage and clock.  As long as Navy doesn't turn the ball over, they have a decent chance of knocking off the Irish.  But I don't see that happening.  ND pulls away in the 2nd half.

Texas @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys are certainly capable of upsetting the Longhorns, but I'll be very surprised if it happens.  UT wins.

Oregon @ Arizona- The Ducks look like a good team, while Arizona is on a 2-game losing streak and have lost 3 of 4.  With the game being in Tucson, it will be close but OU pulls it out.

Hawai'i @ Fresno State- The Warriors have had a good season so far, but the Bulldogs are a cut above.  If this were on the Island, I might be tempted to go with the upset, but it's in Fresno.  FS wins.

San Diego State @ Nevada- The Wolfpack have quietly had a decent season, having already bested their 3 wins from 2017, but the Aztecs are one of the best teams in the MWC.  SDS wins a close one.

That's it for now.  On Monday, look for the next installment of my TWIF Notes.  And don't forget to follow this blog and to leave a comment, and please share with your friends.  Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!