Power Rankings 10/23/18
Welcome Back!
Before I get to the Rankings, I would like to spend a little time on the conference races.
AAC
In the East, UCF, Temple, and USF are all undefeated, and Cincinnati has only one loss. ECU and UConn are eliminated as each has 4 losses. UCF still has all 3 on their schedule. Temple has UCF and USF, and must also play Houston. USF still must play the other 3, and also has Houston. Cincy has USF and UCF left, but also has Navy.
In the West, Houston is the only undefeated team, and SMU is the only 1-loss team. Tulane is the only 2-loss team left, but I don't see them challenging Houston. Come to think of it, I don't see SMU as much of a threat, either. Navy, Memphis, and Tulsa are all but eliminated, with 3 losses each.
ACC
In the Atlantic Division, Clemson is the only undefeated team, with NC State and Boston College the only 1-loss teams. Clemson has already defeated NC State, but must still face BC, so the Eagles are still in it. Theoretically. Syracuse has 2 losses, but they still have to face NC State and BC. FSU, Wake Forest, and Louisville all have 3 or more losses.
In the Coastal, things are a lot more convoluted. Va Tech is the only undefeated team, at 3-0, but Miami, Virginia, and Pitt all have only 1 loss, so they're not eliminated yet. Plus, the Hokies still have to face all 3, as well as Boston College from the Coastal, so I don't see them holding out to the end. Duke is still in it with 2 losses, but Ga Tech and UNC already have 3, so they are just about eliminated.
Big 12
Texas is the surprise leader at 4-0, but Oklahoma, West Virginia, and a surprise Texas Tech team are all right behind at 3-1. Baylor and Iowa State have an outside shot at 2-2, but they are more likely to play spoiler roles. Kansas St, Okla St, TCU, and Kansas all have 3 or more losses, and so are in all likelihood eliminated.
Big 10
Michigan leads the East with a 5-0 record, with Ohio State the only probable competition at 4-1. Mich St, Penn St, and Maryland are all 2-2, so they have an outside shot, if all chaos breaks loose, but don't count on it. However, they can still affect the race in a spoiler role. Mich St and Maryland still have OSU to play, while Penn State has Michigan. Indiana and Rutgers are out of it. My guess is the East will be decided on Nov 24 when Michigan visits OSU.
The West is much less settled. Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Purdue all have one loss. Each have to play 2 of the others: Wisconsin @ Northwestern and @ Purdue, and Iowa @ Purdue and vs. Northwestern. Just looking at the schedule, the Badgers are on the road for both games while Purdue is at home for both. This race just may be decided by the remaining crossover games: Wisconsin vs. Rutgers and @ Penn St, Iowa @ Penn St, and Purdue @ Mich St and @Indiana. NW has completed their crossover games. This should be a fun race to watch! Illinois, Nebraska, and Minnesota all have 3+ conference losses.
CUSA
In the East, FIU is the surprise leader at 3-0, with wins over ODU, Mid Tenn, and Rice. MY and Marshall are right behind at 3-1. Charlotte and FAU (surprisingly) each have 2 losses, with ODU and WKU with 3+ losses.
In the West, UAB (4-0) is the only undefeated team, but La Tech and Southern Miss are just behind with 1 loss each. N Texas and UTSA are still in the hunt at 2-2, but UTEP and Rice are eliminated with 3 and 4 losses respectively.
Independents
Though technically not a conference, I have kind of been treating them as one all year, so why stop now? Notre Dame is 7-0 and has a 2-game lead over Army (5-2). BYU and Liberty (!) are 4-3, with UMass and NM St bringing up the rear at 2-6.
MAC
Buffalo surprisingly stands all alone atop the east with a 4-0 record, but 3 teams will still be in the hunt to challenge them: Miami at 3-1. Ohio at 2-1, and Akron (last year's champs) at 1-2. Ohio is the only one of these 4 that still has to play the other 3, so they control their own destiny ( as does Buffalo, obviously). Bowling Green and Kent St are both 0-4.
In the West, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois are both 4-0, but they won't play each other until Nov 20 (Tuesday before Thanksgiving). Ball St and Toledo only have 2 losses, and could still make a run, but it's highly unlikely. E Mich is 2-3 and C Mich is 0-4.
MWC
In the Mountain Division, Utah State leads at 3-0, but Boise St still controls its own destiny as they finish the season hosting the Aggies on Nov 24. Colo St and New Mexico only have 2 losses, but I don't see them as being a factor. Air Force (1-3) and Wyoming (0-4) are practically eliminated.
In the West, Fresno St and San Diego St are both undefeated at 3-0. Hawai'i at 3-1 and Nevada at 2-2 are the only threats. SDS still must play all 3, 2 on the road (Nevada and FS). The Wolfpack have only SDS left. Fresno has Hawai'i and SDS, both at home, but must still also travel to Boise St. Hawai'i has the 2 already mentioned (both on the road) plus Utah St at home. UNLV and San Jose St are both 0-3.
PAC 12
In the North, 3 teams have only 1 loss: Wash St, Washington, and Stanford. All 3 have yet to play each other. Oregon, at 2-2, is still in the race, but have already played the teams above them, so they have to rely on other teams to beat the leaders. Cal and Oregon St appear out of it. Interesting tidbit: Wash St is the only team in the entire PAC 12 with only 1 loss!
In the South, every team still has a chance to win the division, as every team has either 2 or 3 losses! Utah and USC are 3-2, Colorado and UCLA are 2-2, Arizona is 2-3, and Ariz St is 1-3.
SEC
In the East, 3 teams are tied for the lead, but only 2 control their destiny. Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky are each 4-1, but UK has their win over UF to its credit. Win out, and they'll make their 1st SECCG appearance, as the designated sacrificial lamb to Alabama. If UGA wins out, they'll make it to the SECCG. Florida must beat UGA and hope for UK to lose one more (maybe to Georgia), as well as win the rest of their games. South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri, and Vanderbilt all have 3+ losses and have no chance at the division title.
In the West, Alabama is in the lead at 5-0, but LSU at 4-1 still controls its destiny. A win at Alabama could propel them into the SECCG, but don't bet the house on it. Texas A&M is technically still in it at 3-1, but they've already lost to Bama, and still have games @Miss St, @Auburn, and vs LSU left. Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss St, and Arkansas all have 3+ losses.
SBC
The East is the only division with 3 undefeated teams in conference play: App St, Ga Southern, and Troy. Obviously, they haven't played each other yet, but that starts this weekend when ASU visits GSU (Thursday). Ga St and CCU are each 1-2, so they're not eliminated, but both have already lost to Troy.
In the West, ULM, Arkansas St, Louisiana, and S Alabama all have 2 losses. Texas St, at 0-4, seems to be the only team out of contention.
The Power Rankings
We have now had 8 full weeks college football, and the rankings have really changed. We will explore the rankings a little, and what they mean.
AAC
In the East, UCF, Temple, and USF are all undefeated, and Cincinnati has only one loss. ECU and UConn are eliminated as each has 4 losses. UCF still has all 3 on their schedule. Temple has UCF and USF, and must also play Houston. USF still must play the other 3, and also has Houston. Cincy has USF and UCF left, but also has Navy.
In the West, Houston is the only undefeated team, and SMU is the only 1-loss team. Tulane is the only 2-loss team left, but I don't see them challenging Houston. Come to think of it, I don't see SMU as much of a threat, either. Navy, Memphis, and Tulsa are all but eliminated, with 3 losses each.
ACC
In the Atlantic Division, Clemson is the only undefeated team, with NC State and Boston College the only 1-loss teams. Clemson has already defeated NC State, but must still face BC, so the Eagles are still in it. Theoretically. Syracuse has 2 losses, but they still have to face NC State and BC. FSU, Wake Forest, and Louisville all have 3 or more losses.
In the Coastal, things are a lot more convoluted. Va Tech is the only undefeated team, at 3-0, but Miami, Virginia, and Pitt all have only 1 loss, so they're not eliminated yet. Plus, the Hokies still have to face all 3, as well as Boston College from the Coastal, so I don't see them holding out to the end. Duke is still in it with 2 losses, but Ga Tech and UNC already have 3, so they are just about eliminated.
Big 12
Texas is the surprise leader at 4-0, but Oklahoma, West Virginia, and a surprise Texas Tech team are all right behind at 3-1. Baylor and Iowa State have an outside shot at 2-2, but they are more likely to play spoiler roles. Kansas St, Okla St, TCU, and Kansas all have 3 or more losses, and so are in all likelihood eliminated.
Big 10
Michigan leads the East with a 5-0 record, with Ohio State the only probable competition at 4-1. Mich St, Penn St, and Maryland are all 2-2, so they have an outside shot, if all chaos breaks loose, but don't count on it. However, they can still affect the race in a spoiler role. Mich St and Maryland still have OSU to play, while Penn State has Michigan. Indiana and Rutgers are out of it. My guess is the East will be decided on Nov 24 when Michigan visits OSU.
The West is much less settled. Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Purdue all have one loss. Each have to play 2 of the others: Wisconsin @ Northwestern and @ Purdue, and Iowa @ Purdue and vs. Northwestern. Just looking at the schedule, the Badgers are on the road for both games while Purdue is at home for both. This race just may be decided by the remaining crossover games: Wisconsin vs. Rutgers and @ Penn St, Iowa @ Penn St, and Purdue @ Mich St and @Indiana. NW has completed their crossover games. This should be a fun race to watch! Illinois, Nebraska, and Minnesota all have 3+ conference losses.
CUSA
In the East, FIU is the surprise leader at 3-0, with wins over ODU, Mid Tenn, and Rice. MY and Marshall are right behind at 3-1. Charlotte and FAU (surprisingly) each have 2 losses, with ODU and WKU with 3+ losses.
In the West, UAB (4-0) is the only undefeated team, but La Tech and Southern Miss are just behind with 1 loss each. N Texas and UTSA are still in the hunt at 2-2, but UTEP and Rice are eliminated with 3 and 4 losses respectively.
Independents
Though technically not a conference, I have kind of been treating them as one all year, so why stop now? Notre Dame is 7-0 and has a 2-game lead over Army (5-2). BYU and Liberty (!) are 4-3, with UMass and NM St bringing up the rear at 2-6.
MAC
Buffalo surprisingly stands all alone atop the east with a 4-0 record, but 3 teams will still be in the hunt to challenge them: Miami at 3-1. Ohio at 2-1, and Akron (last year's champs) at 1-2. Ohio is the only one of these 4 that still has to play the other 3, so they control their own destiny ( as does Buffalo, obviously). Bowling Green and Kent St are both 0-4.
In the West, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois are both 4-0, but they won't play each other until Nov 20 (Tuesday before Thanksgiving). Ball St and Toledo only have 2 losses, and could still make a run, but it's highly unlikely. E Mich is 2-3 and C Mich is 0-4.
MWC
In the Mountain Division, Utah State leads at 3-0, but Boise St still controls its own destiny as they finish the season hosting the Aggies on Nov 24. Colo St and New Mexico only have 2 losses, but I don't see them as being a factor. Air Force (1-3) and Wyoming (0-4) are practically eliminated.
In the West, Fresno St and San Diego St are both undefeated at 3-0. Hawai'i at 3-1 and Nevada at 2-2 are the only threats. SDS still must play all 3, 2 on the road (Nevada and FS). The Wolfpack have only SDS left. Fresno has Hawai'i and SDS, both at home, but must still also travel to Boise St. Hawai'i has the 2 already mentioned (both on the road) plus Utah St at home. UNLV and San Jose St are both 0-3.
PAC 12
In the North, 3 teams have only 1 loss: Wash St, Washington, and Stanford. All 3 have yet to play each other. Oregon, at 2-2, is still in the race, but have already played the teams above them, so they have to rely on other teams to beat the leaders. Cal and Oregon St appear out of it. Interesting tidbit: Wash St is the only team in the entire PAC 12 with only 1 loss!
In the South, every team still has a chance to win the division, as every team has either 2 or 3 losses! Utah and USC are 3-2, Colorado and UCLA are 2-2, Arizona is 2-3, and Ariz St is 1-3.
SEC
In the East, 3 teams are tied for the lead, but only 2 control their destiny. Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky are each 4-1, but UK has their win over UF to its credit. Win out, and they'll make their 1st SECCG appearance, as the designated sacrificial lamb to Alabama. If UGA wins out, they'll make it to the SECCG. Florida must beat UGA and hope for UK to lose one more (maybe to Georgia), as well as win the rest of their games. South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri, and Vanderbilt all have 3+ losses and have no chance at the division title.
In the West, Alabama is in the lead at 5-0, but LSU at 4-1 still controls its destiny. A win at Alabama could propel them into the SECCG, but don't bet the house on it. Texas A&M is technically still in it at 3-1, but they've already lost to Bama, and still have games @Miss St, @Auburn, and vs LSU left. Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss St, and Arkansas all have 3+ losses.
SBC
The East is the only division with 3 undefeated teams in conference play: App St, Ga Southern, and Troy. Obviously, they haven't played each other yet, but that starts this weekend when ASU visits GSU (Thursday). Ga St and CCU are each 1-2, so they're not eliminated, but both have already lost to Troy.
In the West, ULM, Arkansas St, Louisiana, and S Alabama all have 2 losses. Texas St, at 0-4, seems to be the only team out of contention.
The Power Rankings
We have now had 8 full weeks college football, and the rankings have really changed. We will explore the rankings a little, and what they mean.
First, a few clarifications about the rankings. I assign a point value to each win and loss. Depending on how far away a team is from the ones above or below, and how those teams did, a team may move up or down, or may not move at all. For example, despite FSU's loss to Virginia Tech in week 1, they did not move down. This was due to the fact that they played a quality opponent, and that they had a relatively large lead over the team behind them, Boise State. That difference has been whittled to almost nothing, and another loss, assuming the teams below them win, could drop them 2-4 spaces.
Some general observations:
There were some major changes, mostly due to me deemphasizing the preseason rankings. I will continue to do this over the next several weeks until they are gone, and what we are left with is a ranking based on how the teams have performed this season, and not on expected level of performance. The only "extended" section that had no movement was 128-130. Almost every other team moved at least 1 spot up or down. I expect a lot more movement next week.
The biggest winners were:
Virginia +12
Ohio +8
App St +8
Marshall +8
Utah St +7
LSU +6
Mid Tenn +6
FIU +6
Ga Southern +6
Coastal Carolina +6
Utah +5
Ariz St +5
UConn +5
Kansas St +4
Texas Tech +4
Wash St +4
Nebraska +4
Air Force +4
Hawai'i +4
Kansas +4
Duke +3
BYU +3
E Mich +3
New Mexico +3
Ohio +8
App St +8
Marshall +8
Utah St +7
LSU +6
Mid Tenn +6
FIU +6
Ga Southern +6
Coastal Carolina +6
Utah +5
Ariz St +5
UConn +5
Kansas St +4
Texas Tech +4
Wash St +4
Nebraska +4
Air Force +4
Hawai'i +4
Kansas +4
Duke +3
BYU +3
E Mich +3
New Mexico +3
The biggest losers were:
Maryland -12
Navy -12
Wake Forest -11
Pitt -8
Tennessee -8
C Mich -7
Miss St -6
Arizona -6
UMass -6
Va Tech -4
FAU -4
San Diego St -4
Cal -4
UNC -4
Wyoming -4
Rutgers -4
FSU -3
Memphis -3
Baylor -3
Temple -3
Vandy -3
Tulane -3
Miami, Oh -3
S Miss -3
UNLV -3
Oregon St -3
New Mexico St -3
Navy -12
Wake Forest -11
Pitt -8
Tennessee -8
C Mich -7
Miss St -6
Arizona -6
UMass -6
Va Tech -4
FAU -4
San Diego St -4
Cal -4
UNC -4
Wyoming -4
Rutgers -4
FSU -3
Memphis -3
Baylor -3
Temple -3
Vandy -3
Tulane -3
Miami, Oh -3
S Miss -3
UNLV -3
Oregon St -3
New Mexico St -3
Now, on to the rankings!
| 1 | Alabama |
| 2 | Clemson |
| 3 | Ohio St |
| 4 | Washington |
| 5 | Georgia |
| 6 | Michigan |
| 7 | Oklahoma |
| 8 | Wisconsin |
| 9 | Notre Dame |
| 10 | Miami, Fl |
| 11 | Stanford |
| 12 | Auburn |
| 13 | Mich St |
| 14 | Penn State |
| 15 | USC |
| 16 | Texas |
| 17 | LSU |
| 18 | Texas A&M |
| 19 | TCU |
| 20 | Utah |
| 21 | Florida |
| 22 | Boise St |
| 23 | West Virginia |
| 24 | FSU |
| 25 | Iowa |
| 26 | Miss St |
| 27 | Okla St |
| 28 | Kansas St |
| 29 | Oregon |
| 30 | South Carolina |
| 31 | NC State |
| 32 | UCF |
| 33 | Va Tech |
| 34 | Boston College |
| 35 | Missouri |
| 36 | Duke |
| 37 | Iowa St |
| 38 | Northwestern |
| 39 | Ga Tech |
| 40 | FAU |
| 41 | Louisville |
| 42 | Texas Tech |
| 43 | Wash St |
| 44 | Arizona |
| 45 | Fresno St |
| 46 | Memphis |
| 47 | Houston |
| 48 | San Diego St |
| 49 | UCLA |
| 50 | Kentucky |
| 51 | Ariz St |
| 52 | Ohio |
| 53 | Ole Miss |
| 54 | Purdue |
| 55 | App St |
| 56 | USF |
| 57 | Colorado |
| 58 | Nebraska |
| 59 | Virginia |
| 60 | Baylor |
| 61 | Pitt |
| 62 | Wake Forest |
| 63 | Syracuse |
| 64 | Utah St |
| 65 | Cal |
| 66 | N Illinois |
| 67 | Marshall |
| 68 | UNC |
| 69 | Ark St |
| 70 | Toledo |
| 71 | Maryland |
| 72 | Mid Tenn St |
| 73 | Indiana |
| 74 | Minnesota |
| 75 | Tennessee |
| 76 | Army |
| 77 | La Tech |
| 78 | Troy |
| 79 | BYU |
| 80 | Temple |
| 81 | Navy |
| 82 | Arkansas |
| 83 | W Mich |
| 84 | N Texas |
| 85 | Air Force |
| 86 | Buffalo |
| 87 | Vandy |
| 88 | UAB |
| 89 | FIU |
| 90 | Cincinnati |
| 91 | Wyoming |
| 92 | SMU |
| 93 | Akron |
| 94 | Tulane |
| 95 | Colo St |
| 96 | Ga Southern |
| 97 | Nevada |
| 98 | E Mich |
| 99 | Miami Oh |
| 100 | S Miss |
| 101 | Illinois |
| 102 | Tulsa |
| 103 | New Mexico |
| 104 | Rutgers |
| 105 | ODU |
| 106 | Hawaii |
| 107 | UNLV |
| 108 | Oregon St |
| 109 | La Monroe |
| 110 | UTSA |
| 111 | Kansas |
| 112 | Louisiana |
| 113 | UConn |
| 114 | WKU |
| 115 | Coastal Carolina |
| 116 | Ga St |
| 117 | UMass |
| 118 | S Alabama |
| 119 | C Mich |
| 120 | Liberty |
| 121 | Ball St |
| 122 | New Mexico St |
| 123 | ECU |
| 124 | Charlotte |
| 125 | Bowling Green |
| 126 | Kent St |
| 127 | Rice |
| 128 | UTEP |
| 129 | Texas St |
| 130 | San Jose St |
That's it for today. Feel free to leave a comment. Tomorrow, I'll give some stats and other interesting tidbits in my weekly Odds and Ends blog. Until then, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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