Power Rankings 10/30/18

Welcome Back!

Before I get to the Rankings, I would like to spend a little time on the conference races.

AAC

In the East, UCF, and Temple are undefeated, and Cincinnati and USF have only one loss.  ECU and UConn are eliminated as each has 4 losses.  UCF still has all 3 on their schedule.  Temple has UCF and USF, and must also play Houston.  USF still must play the other 3.  Cincy has USF and UCF left, but also has Navy.

In the West, Houston is the only undefeated team.  All of the other teams have 2+ losses.

ACC

In the Atlantic Division, Clemson is the only undefeated team, and Boston College is the only 1-loss team.  Clemson plays @ Boston College on Nov 10 in a game that will likely decide the division, unless BC stumbles along the way.

In the Coastal, things are a lot more convoluted.  Virginia, Va Tech and Pitt all have 1 loss.  Plus, the Hokies still have to face all 3, as well as Boston College from the Coastal, so I don't see them holding out to the end.  Miami is still in it with 2 losses, but Duke and Ga Tech already have 3, and UNC has 4, so they are just about eliminated.

Big 12

Texas, Oklahoma, and Wet Virginia all lead at 4-1, with Iowa State and Texas Tech right behind at 3-2.  The Sooners have already beaten Iowa St and lost to Texas.  Texas still must play the other 3 challengers.  WVU has defeated TT but lost to ISU.  ISU only has Texas remaining (of the contenders) and are 2-1 against the other 3.  The Red Raiders are in the worst position as they are 0-2 with 2 games remaining.

Big 10

Michigan leads the East with a 5-0 record, with Ohio State the only probable competition at 4-1.  Mich St, Penn St, and Maryland are all 3-2, so they have an outside shot, if all chaos breaks loose, but don't count on it.  However, they can still affect the race in a spoiler role.  Mich St and Maryland still have OSU to play, while Penn State has Michigan.  Indiana and Rutgers are out of it.  My guess is the East will be decided on Nov 24 when Michigan visits OSU.

The West is just about settled.  Northwestern leads at 5-1, with Wisconsin, Iowa, and Purdue all at 3-2.  The Wildcats have already defeated Purdue and Wisconsin, so if they defeat Iowa on Nov 10,  they would almost clinch the division.

CUSA

In the East, FIU is the surprise leader at 4-0, with wins over ODU, Mid Tenn, Rice, and WKU.  The Blue Raiders are right behind at 4-1, with Marshall at 3-1.  Charlotte is at 3-2, and is still in the race, though they have a loss to MT.  FAU is a surprise at 1-3, but could still make noise beginning with their game @FIU this weekend.

In the West, UAB (5-0) is the only undefeated team, but La Tech is right behind at 4-1.  N Texas is at 3-2, and USM and UTSA are each 2-2.

Independents

Though technically not a conference, I have kind of been treating them as one all year, so why stop now?  Notre Dame is 7-0 and has a 1.5-game lead over Army (6-2).  BYU is 4-4, and Liberty (!) is 4-3, with UMass and NM St bringing up the rear at 3-6 and 2-7, respectively.

MAC

Buffalo surprisingly stands all alone atop the east with a 4-0 record, but 3 teams will still be in the hunt to challenge them: Miami at 3-1. Ohio at 3-1, and Akron (last year's champs) at 2-2.  Ohio is the only one of these 4 that still has to play the other 3, so they control their own destiny (as does Buffalo, obviously).  Bowling Green and Kent St are both 0-4.

In the West, Northern Illinois now stands alone at 4-0, with Western Michigan right behind at 4-1.  Toledo at 2-2 stands to be the only other threat.

MWC

In the Mountain Division, Utah State leads at 4-0, but Boise St (4-1) still controls its own destiny as they finish the season hosting the Aggies on Nov 24.  all of the other teams have at least 3 losses.

In the West, Fresno St stands alone at 4-0.  San Diego State at 3-1 is the main threat, but Hawai'i and Nevada lurk at 3-2, though the Bulldogs have already defeated both.

PAC 12

In the North, Washington State is the only team with only 1 loss.  Washington at 4-2 and Stanford at 3-2 are the only credible threats, but the Cougars have already dispatched the Cardinal.  Interesting tidbit:  Wash St is the only team in the entire PAC 12 with only 1 loss!

In the South, every team still has a chance to win the division, as every team has either 2 or 3 losses!  Utah is 4-2, USC and Arizona are 3-3, and Colorado, USC and Arizona State are all 2-3.  It's possible someone could win this division with 4 losses!

SEC

In the East, the division comes down to this weekend when UGA visits Kentucky.  The winner of this game will be SEC East champs regardless of what else happens in all of the other remaining games.  Florida was eliminated with its loss to Georgia last weekend.

In the West, Alabama is in the lead at 5-0, but LSU at 4-1 still controls its destiny.  A win at Alabama could propel them into the SECCG, but don't bet the house on it.  Texas A&M is technically still in it at 3-2, but they've already lost to Bama, and still have games  @Auburn, and vs LSU left.  Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss St, and Arkansas all have 3+ losses.

SBC

The East is the only division with 2 undefeated teams in conference play.  Georgia Southern defeated Appalachian State last Thursday dropping the Mountaineers (3-1) from the ranks of the unbeaten.  Troy is the other unbeaten.  If the Eagles and the Trojans both take care of business this weekend, it will set up a showdown at GSU on Nov 10.  CCU, at 2-2, is technically still in it as they have games remaining versus App St and Ga Southern at home, but they also have a game against Arkansas St, all in a row.  What a tough stretch!

In the West, ULM and Louisiana lead at 2-2.  Arkansas State and South Alabama are both 1-3.  Texas St, at 0-4, seems to be the only team out of contention.

The Power Rankings

We have now had 9 full weeks college football, and the rankings have really changed. We will explore the rankings a little, and what they mean.

First, a few clarifications about the rankings.  I assign a point value to each win and loss.  Depending on how far away a team is from the ones above or below, and how those teams did, a team may move up or down, or may not move at all.  For example, despite FSU's loss to Virginia Tech in week 1, they did not move down.  This was due to the fact that they played a quality opponent, and that they had a relatively large lead over the team behind them, Boise State.  That difference has been whittled to almost nothing, and another loss, assuming the teams below them win, could drop them 2-4 spaces.

Some general observations:

There were some major changes, mostly due to me deemphasizing the preseason rankings and the myriad of upsets.  With the de-emphasis of the preseason rankings, you may see a team move down a significant number of spaces even though they won, or vice versa.  I will continue to drop my preseason rankings over the next several weeks until they are gone, and what we are left with is a ranking based on how the teams have performed this season, and not on expected level of performance.  The only "extended" section that had no movement was 1-3.  Almost every other team moved at least 1 spot up or down.  I expect a lot more movement next week.  Make sure you check out "Tech Row" at spots 40-42!

The biggest winners were:

Marshall +21
Utah State +13
UAB +13
Virginia +12
Troy +11
Washington State +10
Louisiana +10
Liberty +10
La Tech +9
FIU +9
C Carolina +9
Boston College +8
Northwestern +8
Toledo +8
Charlotte +8
N Texas +7
Fresno St +6
Ga Southern +6
Ball St +6
Utah +5
Syracuse +5
E Mich +5

Hawai'i +5

UTSA +5
S Alabama +5
Iowa +4
Okla St +4
Pitt +4
Temple +4
Air Force +4
Mich St +3
Iowa State +3
Ariz St +3
Cincinnati +3
New Mexico +3

The biggest losers were:

Purdue -18
Rutgers -16
Ark St -13
FAU -12
Indiana -12
UCLA -11
Nebraska -11
UNLV -11
Louisville -9
WKU -9
TCU -8
Oregon -8
Tennessee -8
Colo St -7
Illinois -7
San Diego St -6
Colorado -6
Arkansas -6
W Mich -6
USF -5
UNC -5
Vandy -5
Wyoming -5
SMU -5
Tulsa -5
FSU -4
UCF -4
Wake Forest -4
Minnesota -4
Stanford -3
USC -3
Ga Tech -3
Ohio -3
Ole Miss -3
Navy -3
Ga St -3
UMass -3
New Mexico St -3
Bowling Green -3

Now, on to the rankings!

1   Alabama
2   Clemson
3   Ohio State
4   Georgia
5   Michigan
6   Washington
7   Oklahoma
8   Notre Dame
9   Wisconsin
10  Michigan State
11  Miami, Fla
12  Penn State
13  Auburn
14  Stanford
15  Utah
16  LSU
17  Texas
18  USC
19  Texas A&M
20  Florida
21  Iowa
22  Boise State
23  Oklahoma State
24  West Virginia
25  Mississippi State
26  Boston College
27  TCU
28  FSU
29  Kansas State
30  Northwestern
31  NC State
32  South Carolina
33  Washington State
34  Iowa State
35  Duke
36  UCF
37  Oregon
38  Missouri
39  Fresno State
40  Texas Tech
41  Virginia Tech
42  Georgia Tech
43  Arizona
44  Memphis
45  Houston
46  Marshall
47  Virginia
48  Arizona State
49  Kentucky
50  Louisville
51  Utah State
52  FAU
53  Appalachian State
54  San Diego State
55  Ohio
56  Ole Miss
57  Pitt
58  Syracuse
59  Baylor
60  UCLA
61  USF
62  Toledo
63  Colorado
64  California
65  Northern Illinois
66  Wake Forest
67  Troy
68  La Tech
69  Nebraska
70  Maryland
71  Middle Tennessee
72  Purdue
73  North Carolina
74  Army
75  UAB
76  Temple
77  North Texas
78  Minnesota
79  BYU
80  FIU
81  Air Force
82  Arkansas State
83  Tennessee
84  Navy
85  Indiana
86  Buffalo
87  Cincinnati
88  Arkansas
89  Western Michigan
90  Georgia Southern
91  Akron
92  Vanderbilt
93  Eastern Michigan
94  Tulane
95  Nevada
96  Wyoming
97  SMU
98  Miami, Oh
99  Southern Mississippi
100 New Mexico
101 Hawai'i
102 Colorado State
       Louisiana
104 ODU
105 UTSA
106 Coastal Carolina
107 Tulsa
108 Illinois
109 Oregon State
110 Liberty
111 ULM
112 Kansas
113 South Alabama
114 UConn
115 Ball State
116 Charlotte
117 Central Michigan
118 UNLV
119 Georgia State
120 Rutgers
       UMass
122 ECU
123 WKU
124 Kent State
125 New Mexico State
126 Rice
127 UTEP
128 Bowling Green
129 Texas State
130 San Jose State

That's it for today. Feel free to leave a comment.  Tomorrow, I'll give some stats and other interesting tidbits in my weekly Odds and Ends blog.  Until then, may you and your loved ones be blessed!