TWIF Notes 10/29/18
Welcome Back!
Last Saturday was , I expected a lot of close games. However, I did not expect the number of upsets that we had. Do you realize that of the 11 teams that were ranked 15-25 in the AP poll 9 of them lost? Here are my thoughts on each game.
There are Tuesday AND Wednesday games this week. Since they occur before my weekly Paul's Picks on Thursday, I will do those picks below (after the recaps).
Let's jump right in!
There are Tuesday AND Wednesday games this week. Since they occur before my weekly Paul's Picks on Thursday, I will do those picks below (after the recaps).
Let's jump right in!
Teams who won against FBS competition, exactly as expected
Nebraska- This was a makeup for the lost opener against Akron.
FBS vs. FBS games
Troy easily defeated South Alabama on Tuesday night, 38-17. This was exactly as expected, and did not foreshadow what was to come. That's just good plot writing!
Thursday and Friday was another matter altogether...
West Virginia stomped Baylor 58-14 to remain in the Big 12 race.
Ohio destroyed Ball State 52-14 to move to 3-1 in the MAC East. So far so good, but I'm sensing a theme with the scores here...
Toledo demolished Western Michigan 51-24 in what turned out to be the 1st of many upsets on the weekend. The Broncos suffered their 1st MAC loss, but are still in the running in the West.
In what turned out to be the closest Thursday night game, Georgia Southern asserted itself with a 34-14 pounding of Appalachian State. The Eagles now look to be the favorites in the SBC East.
Georgia Tech went on the road and ran all over Virginia Tech 49-28. But I'm not ready to declare the Jackets have turned things around, as we've been here before...
Friday was more of the same, but at least the games were closer. Well, most of them.
La Tech eased by FAU 21-13, dropping the Owls to 1-3 in CUSA, and severely damaging their chances to make the conference title game. The Bulldogs are 2nd in the West at 4-1 (behind UAB at 5-0).
Boston College defeated Miami 27-14, setting up a huge game at home against Clemson on Nov 10. But the Eagles have to get past a game in Blacksburg, but that hasn't been too difficult this year as VT is 1-2 at home this year. Interesting that BC controls its destiny.
Minnesota hung on to beat Indiana 38-31 in a relatively meaningless Big 10 contest.
Wyoming cruised over Colorado State 34-21 to earn their 1st MWC win.
Utah crushed UCLA 41-10 to end the Bruins' modest 2-game win streak. It is the 4th straight game the Utes have scored 40 or more.
Saturday was more of the same. Much more.
Clemson handed FSU its worst home loss in its history, 59-10. The Seminoles will be hard pressed to make a bowl game this year (more on that in my Odds and Ends on Wednesday). The Tigers just keep rolling along, and have won their last 3 games by 60, 34, and 49.
Northwestern throttled Wisconsin 31-17, but that might have been expected with the Badgers being forced to play their backup QB. Had I known Hornibrook wasn't going to play, I probably would have picked the Wildcats, but it wouldn't have helped my win percentage much (see Paul's Picks on Thursday). The Wildcats lead the Big 10 West by at least a game over the rest of the division.
Vandy went into Fayetteville and defeated Arkansas 45-31 to earn their 1st SEC win of 2018. The Razorbacks remain winless.
Iowa State earned their 1st Big 12 win by outlasting Texas Tech 40-31. Both teams still have a shot at making the Big 12 title game (but I don't think it's likely).
Michigan State ended Purdue's 4-game winning streak 23-13, moving both teams to 3-2 in the Big 10, and damaging the Boilermakers' chances of winning the division.
Wake Forest defeated Louisville 56-35 in a game that was obviously lacking any sort of defense.
UMass eased by UConn 22-17 to keep their feeble bowl hopes alive.
Army got its 4th win in a row with a 37-22 victory over Eastern Michigan.
Akron eked out a 17-10 victory over Central Michigan to even its MAC record at 2-2.
Virginia continued its march toward a division crown (and UNC's misery) with a 31-21 win over North Carolina. The Cavaliers control their destiny in the ACC Coastal.
Charlotte moved to 4-4/3-2 by defeating Southern Miss 20-17.
Coastal Carolina erased a TD deficit in the 4th quarter and came back to defeat Georgia State 37-34, scoring the last 10 points in this SBC pecking order contest.
Oklahoma crushed Kansas State 51-14, and the wheels have almost fallen completely off for the Wildcats.
Kansas got it 1st conference win since defeating Texas in 2016, giving them 3 victories in 2018. The next step in their development is to win a conference game on the road, which they haven't done since 2008!
Oregon State trailed Colorado 31-3, but came back to win 41-34 in OT. The Buffaloes have fallen apart, losing their 3rd straight game after opening the season with 5 wins. This was Oregon State's 1st win over an FBS foe this season, and their 1st conference win since defeating Oregon at home to end the 2017 season. This was their 1st conference road win since 2014 (also against Colorado), and only their 4th conference win in the last 4 years. Not a good look for the Buffs...
Georgia pulled away in the 4th quarter to defeat Florida 36-17. The Dawgs looked very good on offense for most of the game, but there were some moments where they struggled to move the ball. Their defense was classic Junkyard Dawgs: bend but don't break, and be opportunistic. The Gators have been eliminated in the SEC East.
Penn State escaped against Iowa 30-24. Both teams are 6-2/3-2.
Houston routed USF 57-35, ending all hopes of an undefeated season for the Bulls. The Cougars sit atop the AAC West at 4-0, and have a 2-game lead on the rest of the division.
Arizona State went on the road and edged USC (who was starting their 3rd-string QB) 38-35. Every team in the PAC 12 South has 3 losses, except for Utah (4-2). Could we end up with a 4-loss champion in the division?
Maryland continued their Jekyll and Hyde 2018 by destroying Illinois 63-33.
Pitt surprised Duke 54-45. The Panthers, at 3-1, are still alive in the ACC Coastal.
Middle Tennessee crushed ODU 51-17, and are on eth cusp of bowl eligibility.
Northern Illinois travelled to Provo to eke out a 7-6 win over BYU. Both teams came in at 4-3.
Cincinnati held on to defeat SMU 26-20 in OT, keeping their division title hopes alive.
Kentucky got a controversial untimed play from the 2-yard line and pulled out a 15-14 win over Missouri to set up a huge home game against Georgia this weekend. The winner of that game will clinch the SEC East (but both the Wildcats and the Dawgs will have an SEC game remaining).
Utah State demolished New Mexico 61-19 to remain atop the MWC Mountain division at 4-0.
North Texas destroyed Rice 41-17 to maintain their slim hopes at a division title.
Cal pulled off a massive upset over Washington 12-10, leaving rival Wash St all alone at the top. However, they still control their destiny in the PAC 12 North, but they have to win out.
San Jose State finally broke through for its 1st victory of 2018, 50-37 over UNLV.
Washington State pulled out a 41-38 win over Stanford, leaving the Cougars all alone at the top of the PAC 12 North. They now must face the same Cal team that just upset the Huskies.
Mississippi State defeated Texas A&M 28-13, all but ending the Aggies' hopes of winning the SEC West. The Bulldogs are now 2-3 in the SEC, while TAMU drops to 3-2.
Syracuse won a high scoring affair, 51-41 over NC State, fulling exposing the Wolfpack as pretenders. The Orange have a pretty decent chance of finishing 2nd to Clemson in the ACC Atlantic.
Boise State defeated Air Force 48-38, and still control their destiny in the MWC Mountain.
Louisiana got a late score to edge Arkansas State 47-43. The Ragin' Cajuns now share the SBC West division lead with ULM at 2-2.
Tulane defeated Tulsa 24-17. You probably don't really care...
Texas State got its 1st FBS win of 2018, 27-20 over New Mexico State.
UAB stomped UTEP 19-0. The Miners are the last winless team in FBS.
South Carolina came back from a double-digit deficit to defeat Tennessee 27-24 and solidify a top 4 finish in the SEC East. Beat Ole Miss and Florida, and the Gamecocks will finish 3rd.
FIU stayed unbeaten in CUSA (4-0) with a 38-17 win over WKU, who remains winless in CUSA.
Notre Dame was never really threatened in routing Navy 44-22. The Irish are 8-0.
Oklahoma State handed Texas its 1st conference loss, 38-35, and kept alive its fading hopes to make the championship game.
Arizona absolutely crushed Oregon 44-15, in one of the more surprising scores of the weekend. The Ducks (2-3) are all but eliminated in the PAC 12 North, while the Wildcats, at 3-3, are still very much alive in the PAC 12 South.
Fresno State routed Hawai'i 50-20. This was the Rainbow Warriors' 3rd straight loss after winning 6 of their 1st 7.
Nevada defeated San Diego State 28-24, dropping the Aztecs a game behind Fresno State in the MWC West.
Paul's Early Picks
Tuesday, October 30
Kent State @ Bowling Green- This is a game between 2 hapless MAC teams, both 1-7/0-4, with each of their wins over FCS teams. In a situation like this, I normally go with the home team, but the Golden Flashes have actually played several teams close, losing by 7 to Illinois, by 1 to Ohio, and by 1 in OT to Akron. The Falcons closest loss was by 7 to W Mich, but their next closest is by 15 to Miami, Ohio. KS wins and claims the Anniversary Award, whatever that is...
Miami, Ohio @ Buffalo- The Bulls are 7-1/4-0, but have their toughest conference games ahead of them: this one and @Ohio (their other 2 games are against the 2 teams mentioned above. If the Redhawks can win this game, that would put them in the driver's seat for the division title, but they also must play Ohio, as well as @Northern Illinois. Bulls win a close game.
Wednesday, October 31
Ball State @ Toledo- The Rockets were expected to be one of the best teams in the MAC, but have been mostly disappointing, losing to E Mich and Buffalo. However, they routed a pretty decent W Mich last week, and they just may have turned things around. Only 1 of their remaining 4 opponents (N Ill) has a winning record, so they have a great chance at a strong finish. Toledo wins.
Thursday and Friday was another matter altogether...
West Virginia stomped Baylor 58-14 to remain in the Big 12 race.
Ohio destroyed Ball State 52-14 to move to 3-1 in the MAC East. So far so good, but I'm sensing a theme with the scores here...
Toledo demolished Western Michigan 51-24 in what turned out to be the 1st of many upsets on the weekend. The Broncos suffered their 1st MAC loss, but are still in the running in the West.
In what turned out to be the closest Thursday night game, Georgia Southern asserted itself with a 34-14 pounding of Appalachian State. The Eagles now look to be the favorites in the SBC East.
Georgia Tech went on the road and ran all over Virginia Tech 49-28. But I'm not ready to declare the Jackets have turned things around, as we've been here before...
Friday was more of the same, but at least the games were closer. Well, most of them.
La Tech eased by FAU 21-13, dropping the Owls to 1-3 in CUSA, and severely damaging their chances to make the conference title game. The Bulldogs are 2nd in the West at 4-1 (behind UAB at 5-0).
Boston College defeated Miami 27-14, setting up a huge game at home against Clemson on Nov 10. But the Eagles have to get past a game in Blacksburg, but that hasn't been too difficult this year as VT is 1-2 at home this year. Interesting that BC controls its destiny.
Minnesota hung on to beat Indiana 38-31 in a relatively meaningless Big 10 contest.
Wyoming cruised over Colorado State 34-21 to earn their 1st MWC win.
Utah crushed UCLA 41-10 to end the Bruins' modest 2-game win streak. It is the 4th straight game the Utes have scored 40 or more.
Saturday was more of the same. Much more.
Clemson handed FSU its worst home loss in its history, 59-10. The Seminoles will be hard pressed to make a bowl game this year (more on that in my Odds and Ends on Wednesday). The Tigers just keep rolling along, and have won their last 3 games by 60, 34, and 49.
Northwestern throttled Wisconsin 31-17, but that might have been expected with the Badgers being forced to play their backup QB. Had I known Hornibrook wasn't going to play, I probably would have picked the Wildcats, but it wouldn't have helped my win percentage much (see Paul's Picks on Thursday). The Wildcats lead the Big 10 West by at least a game over the rest of the division.
Vandy went into Fayetteville and defeated Arkansas 45-31 to earn their 1st SEC win of 2018. The Razorbacks remain winless.
Iowa State earned their 1st Big 12 win by outlasting Texas Tech 40-31. Both teams still have a shot at making the Big 12 title game (but I don't think it's likely).
Michigan State ended Purdue's 4-game winning streak 23-13, moving both teams to 3-2 in the Big 10, and damaging the Boilermakers' chances of winning the division.
Wake Forest defeated Louisville 56-35 in a game that was obviously lacking any sort of defense.
UMass eased by UConn 22-17 to keep their feeble bowl hopes alive.
Army got its 4th win in a row with a 37-22 victory over Eastern Michigan.
Akron eked out a 17-10 victory over Central Michigan to even its MAC record at 2-2.
Virginia continued its march toward a division crown (and UNC's misery) with a 31-21 win over North Carolina. The Cavaliers control their destiny in the ACC Coastal.
Charlotte moved to 4-4/3-2 by defeating Southern Miss 20-17.
Coastal Carolina erased a TD deficit in the 4th quarter and came back to defeat Georgia State 37-34, scoring the last 10 points in this SBC pecking order contest.
Oklahoma crushed Kansas State 51-14, and the wheels have almost fallen completely off for the Wildcats.
Kansas got it 1st conference win since defeating Texas in 2016, giving them 3 victories in 2018. The next step in their development is to win a conference game on the road, which they haven't done since 2008!
Oregon State trailed Colorado 31-3, but came back to win 41-34 in OT. The Buffaloes have fallen apart, losing their 3rd straight game after opening the season with 5 wins. This was Oregon State's 1st win over an FBS foe this season, and their 1st conference win since defeating Oregon at home to end the 2017 season. This was their 1st conference road win since 2014 (also against Colorado), and only their 4th conference win in the last 4 years. Not a good look for the Buffs...
Georgia pulled away in the 4th quarter to defeat Florida 36-17. The Dawgs looked very good on offense for most of the game, but there were some moments where they struggled to move the ball. Their defense was classic Junkyard Dawgs: bend but don't break, and be opportunistic. The Gators have been eliminated in the SEC East.
Penn State escaped against Iowa 30-24. Both teams are 6-2/3-2.
Houston routed USF 57-35, ending all hopes of an undefeated season for the Bulls. The Cougars sit atop the AAC West at 4-0, and have a 2-game lead on the rest of the division.
Arizona State went on the road and edged USC (who was starting their 3rd-string QB) 38-35. Every team in the PAC 12 South has 3 losses, except for Utah (4-2). Could we end up with a 4-loss champion in the division?
Maryland continued their Jekyll and Hyde 2018 by destroying Illinois 63-33.
Pitt surprised Duke 54-45. The Panthers, at 3-1, are still alive in the ACC Coastal.
Middle Tennessee crushed ODU 51-17, and are on eth cusp of bowl eligibility.
Northern Illinois travelled to Provo to eke out a 7-6 win over BYU. Both teams came in at 4-3.
Cincinnati held on to defeat SMU 26-20 in OT, keeping their division title hopes alive.
Kentucky got a controversial untimed play from the 2-yard line and pulled out a 15-14 win over Missouri to set up a huge home game against Georgia this weekend. The winner of that game will clinch the SEC East (but both the Wildcats and the Dawgs will have an SEC game remaining).
Utah State demolished New Mexico 61-19 to remain atop the MWC Mountain division at 4-0.
North Texas destroyed Rice 41-17 to maintain their slim hopes at a division title.
Cal pulled off a massive upset over Washington 12-10, leaving rival Wash St all alone at the top. However, they still control their destiny in the PAC 12 North, but they have to win out.
San Jose State finally broke through for its 1st victory of 2018, 50-37 over UNLV.
Washington State pulled out a 41-38 win over Stanford, leaving the Cougars all alone at the top of the PAC 12 North. They now must face the same Cal team that just upset the Huskies.
Mississippi State defeated Texas A&M 28-13, all but ending the Aggies' hopes of winning the SEC West. The Bulldogs are now 2-3 in the SEC, while TAMU drops to 3-2.
Syracuse won a high scoring affair, 51-41 over NC State, fulling exposing the Wolfpack as pretenders. The Orange have a pretty decent chance of finishing 2nd to Clemson in the ACC Atlantic.
Boise State defeated Air Force 48-38, and still control their destiny in the MWC Mountain.
Louisiana got a late score to edge Arkansas State 47-43. The Ragin' Cajuns now share the SBC West division lead with ULM at 2-2.
Tulane defeated Tulsa 24-17. You probably don't really care...
Texas State got its 1st FBS win of 2018, 27-20 over New Mexico State.
UAB stomped UTEP 19-0. The Miners are the last winless team in FBS.
South Carolina came back from a double-digit deficit to defeat Tennessee 27-24 and solidify a top 4 finish in the SEC East. Beat Ole Miss and Florida, and the Gamecocks will finish 3rd.
FIU stayed unbeaten in CUSA (4-0) with a 38-17 win over WKU, who remains winless in CUSA.
Notre Dame was never really threatened in routing Navy 44-22. The Irish are 8-0.
Oklahoma State handed Texas its 1st conference loss, 38-35, and kept alive its fading hopes to make the championship game.
Arizona absolutely crushed Oregon 44-15, in one of the more surprising scores of the weekend. The Ducks (2-3) are all but eliminated in the PAC 12 North, while the Wildcats, at 3-3, are still very much alive in the PAC 12 South.
Fresno State routed Hawai'i 50-20. This was the Rainbow Warriors' 3rd straight loss after winning 6 of their 1st 7.
Nevada defeated San Diego State 28-24, dropping the Aztecs a game behind Fresno State in the MWC West.
Paul's Early Picks
Tuesday, October 30
Kent State @ Bowling Green- This is a game between 2 hapless MAC teams, both 1-7/0-4, with each of their wins over FCS teams. In a situation like this, I normally go with the home team, but the Golden Flashes have actually played several teams close, losing by 7 to Illinois, by 1 to Ohio, and by 1 in OT to Akron. The Falcons closest loss was by 7 to W Mich, but their next closest is by 15 to Miami, Ohio. KS wins and claims the Anniversary Award, whatever that is...
Miami, Ohio @ Buffalo- The Bulls are 7-1/4-0, but have their toughest conference games ahead of them: this one and @Ohio (their other 2 games are against the 2 teams mentioned above. If the Redhawks can win this game, that would put them in the driver's seat for the division title, but they also must play Ohio, as well as @Northern Illinois. Bulls win a close game.
Wednesday, October 31
Ball State @ Toledo- The Rockets were expected to be one of the best teams in the MAC, but have been mostly disappointing, losing to E Mich and Buffalo. However, they routed a pretty decent W Mich last week, and they just may have turned things around. Only 1 of their remaining 4 opponents (N Ill) has a winning record, so they have a great chance at a strong finish. Toledo wins.
That's all for now! Feel free to leave a comment and let me know what you think. Come back tomorrow for my new Power Rankings. Until then, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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