Odds and Ends 11/28/18

Welcome Back!

Here at Odds and Ends, I plan to look at some stats, trends, storylines, etc. as they play out.  I will also give my opinion on some issues, but you can take that for what it's worth.

All Wins and No Wins

This is where I will list all the teams that are still undefeated, and all the teams that are winless.  These lists will get smaller as the season goes on, of course.

Undefeated

Alabama

Clemson

Notre Dame

UCF

Winless

NONE

Some interesting tidbits:

There are now no winless teams.  Undefeated teams remain at 4.

There are no games between undefeated teams in week 14.  This means the only chance we have for such would be in a bowl game (or playoff).

Here are the conference standings in relation to undefeated and winless teams.  The 1st number is the number of undefeated teams, the 2nd is the number of winless teams.  I trust you to know how many teams are in each conference.

AAC 1-0

ACC 1-0

SEC 1-0 

Independents 1-0

Big 10 0-0

Big 12 0-0

PAC 12 0-0

MAC 0-0

SBC 0-0

MWC 0-0

CUSA 0-0

There are now only 2 teams that did not get a win against an FBS foe.  .

Central Michigan
UConn  

Conference Standings

I will also be keeping up with how the conferences are faring in non-conference games.  I have dropped the records against FCS teams and are just presenting the non conference records against FBS foes.   Note: I count all Independents as G5 teams.  Here are the (almost) final regular season standings:

1) SEC 32-6 .842winning percentage

2) Big 12 15-6 .714

3) Big 10 25-14 .641

4) Pac 12 16-12 .571

6) ACC 21-18 .538

5) Independents 28-23 .549

7) MWC 15-21 .417

8) AAC 14-20 .412

9) SBC 11-17 .393

10) CUSA 11-30 .268

11) MAC 8-29 .216

Here are the rankings against P5 conference teams:

1) SEC 9-3 .750 winning percentage

2) Big 10 7-5 .583

3) Ind 1210 .545

4) PAC 12 3-4 .429
5) AAC 7-10 .412
6) Big 12 4-6 .400
7) ACC 4-9 .308
8) MWC 4-13 .235
9) MAC 3-19 .136
T10) CUSA 2-20 .091
T10) SBC 1-10 .091

Here are the rankings against G5 conference teams:

1) Big 12 11-0 1.000 winning percentage
2) SEC 23-3 .885

3) Big 10 18-9 .667

4) ACC 17-9 .653
5) PAC 12 13-8 .619

6) SBC 10-7 .588

7) MWC 11-8 .578

8) Ind 16-13 .552

9) CUSA 9-10 .473

10) AAC 7-10 .412

11) MAC 5-10 .333

Which Conference Division is the best?

In order to figure this out, I simply took the winning percentage of each team in the divisions and ranked them.  Yes, I included intra-division games.  Here is how it looks now, after 13 weeks:

1) SEC East 54-28 .659

2) Pac 12 North 43-27 .614

3) SEC West 51-33 .607

4) ACC Atlantic 48-35 .578

5) SBC East 34-25 .576

T6) Big 10 East 48-36 .571

T6) AAC East 40-30 .571

8) Independents 39-31 .557

9) Big 12 66-53 .555

T10) ACC Coastal 42-40 .512

T10) Big 10 West 43-41 .512

T12) MWC West 37-36 .507

T12) MWC Mountain 37-36 .507

14) CUSA East 41-42 .494

15) Pac 12 South 34-38 .472

16) AAC West 34-39 .466

17) MAC West 33-39 .458

18) MAC East 32-38 .457

19) SBC West 27-33 .450

20) CUSA West 37-47 .440

The SEC East stayed on top.  The SEC is the only conference with both divisions in the top 9.  Obviously, as most of the games being played now are conference games, the percentages should be collapsing toward .500, being affected only by the non-conference and cross-division games.

The divisions that did the best last week was the SEC East at 5-2, , and the PAC 12 North at 4-2.  The worst divisions were the PAC 12 South at 2-4 and ACC Coastal at 2-5.  All of the other divisions were at .500 or a game away.

Which Division in each Conference is best?

Here are the standings for each conference in cross divisional games.

SEC East is 9-5 vs. the West (a surprise finish for the year!)
Big 10 East is 13-8 vs. the West (not a surprise)
PAC 12 North is 14-9 vs. the South (also not a surprise)
ACC Atlantic is 8-5 vs. the Coastal (also expected)
AAC East is 10-8 vs. the West
MWC West is 9-9 vs. the Mountain (very balanced divisions)
MAC West is 9-9 vs. the East (also very balanced)
CUSA East is 10-4 vs. the West
SBC East is 13-7 vs. the West

Update on Paul's Playoff Picks:

My picks are pretty much a disaster at this point.  Washington may have snuck back into contention, but it would take dramatic chaos to make that happen.  Wisconsin is a miserable 7-5.  Georgia has one loss, which means its only realistic chance is to win the SECCG over Alabama.  Clemson is the only one still on pace to make it. The top 2 spots seem set, with Alabama and Clemson appearing to be head and shoulders above anyone else.  The fight for the last 2 spots should be interesting!

Teams that have achieved 6 Wins, i.e. Bowl Eligibility
There are 39 bowl games this year, which means there are 78 slots for 130 teams.  The minimum standard is 6 wins.  These are the teams that are already eligible for a bowl:

Alabama
Appalachian State
Arizona State
Arkansas State
Army
Auburn
Baylor
Boise State
Boston College
Buffalo
BYU
California
Cincinnati
Clemson
Duke
Eastern Michigan
FIU
Florida
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech
Hawai'i
Houston
Iowa
Iowa State
Kentucky
La Tech
Louisiana
LSU
Marshall
Memphis
Miami, Florida
Miami, Ohio
Michigan
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina State
North Texas
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
San Diego State
South Carolina
Southern Miss
Stanford
Syracuse
TCU
Temple
Texas
Texas A&M
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
UAB
UCF
ULM
USF
Utah
Utah State
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
West Virginia
Western Michigan
Wisconsin

With 9 new teams added, that brings the total to 80, meaning that there are 2 teams that will be left out of a bowl.  There are still 2 teams fighting for eligibility, so there could be as many as 4 left out.

Chances for bowl eligibility

Teams needing 1 win

Team- Virginia Tech

Record- 5-6

Remaining Schedule- Marshall

Outlook- This is their last chance at bowl eligibility.  It's at home, so you would think the Hokies would pull it off, but they are only 2-4 at home this year.

Team- Liberty

Record- 5-6

Remaining Schedule- Norfolk St

Outlook- I stand corrected as to Liberty's bowl prospects.  Evidently, the Flames have entered into an agreement to allow them to participate in the AutoNation Cure Bowl in 2018 and 2019 if they reach 6 wins.  They should be able to do that against a middling FCS team.

Teams eliminated from a bowl 

(7+ losses- can only be considered if all the slots aren't filled)

Air Force
Akron
Arizona
Arkansas

Ball State

Bowling Green

Central Michigan

Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
Colorado
Colorado State
East Carolina
FAU
FSU
Georgia State

Illinois
Indiana
Kansas
Kansas State
Kent State

Louisville

Maryland
Miami, Ohio

Navy

Nebrasks

New Mexico
New Mexico State

North Carolina

ODU

Ole Miss (ineligible)

Oregon State

Rice

Rutgers

San Jose State

SMU
South Alabama

Tennessee
Texas State
Texas Tech
Tulsa

UCLA

UConn

UMass
UNLV

USC
UTEP

UTSA
WKU

Conference Bowl Eligibility Standings 
(Conference-Eligible teams/Ineligible/Undecided)

SEC- 11/3
Big 10- 9/5
Pac 12- 7/5
Big 12- 7/3
ACC- 10/3/1
Ind- 3/2/1
AAC- 7/5
MWC-6/4
MAC- 7/5
CUSA- 7/7
SBC- 6/4

Games I'm excited about this weekend:

Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo- Can the rebound from 2 straight losses? Can a MAC East team win the title for the 1st time since 2015?
Utah vs. Washington- Can the Utes avenge their 21-7 loss at home to the Huskies back on Sept 14?
Texas vs. Oklahoma- Can the Sooners avenge their 48-45 loss in Dallas on Oct 6?  Can the Longhorns contain the Sooners?  How many points will be scored?
Louisiana @ Appalachian State- Who will win the first ever SBC Championship Game?  The Mountaineers won 27-17on Oct 20, also at home.  Can they do it again?
UAB @ Middle Tennessee- Can the Blue Raiders defeat the Blazers 2 weeks in a row? Will UAB be able to score a TD this time?
Memphis @ UCF- Can the Tigers finally pull off the upset after going 0-3 against the Knights over the last 2 seasons?   Can the Knights be successful without QB McKenzie Milton?
Alabama vs. Georgia- Can the Bulldogs hang with Alabama?  Can they stay within 3 TDs of the Crimson Tide?  Can they generate enough of a rushing attack to make their play action passes effective?  Can they get pressure on QB Tua Tagovailoa?  Will the Dawgs get revenge from last January?  If it's a close game, will the loser still be in the playoff?
Fresno State @ Boise State-  Can the Bulldogs finally win on the blue turf?  Can they get their 2nd ever victory in Boise (only win in 1984) after 10 straight losses?
Clemson vs. Pitt- Do the Panthers have a chance?  Will Tiger QB Trevor Lawrence even play in the 2nd half?  Will Pitt even score?  The last time these 2 teams met, in 2016, Pitt pulled the upset.  Will history repeat itself?
Northwestern vs. Ohio State- The Wildcats only have 3 wins against teams with a winning record: Michigan St, Wisconsin (both 7-5), and 8-4 Iowa.  Can they stay with the Buckeyes?  Will we be saddled with 2 routs in Prime Time?

That's all for now.  Tomorrow, I will have my picks for Week 14.  Feel free to leave a comment.  Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!