2019 CFB Preview Part X
Welcome back!
We are 29 days away from the 1st game on Saturday, August 24! Media days for various conferences are happening, have happened, or will happen soon. And soon after, preseason practices will start up.
Over the next 6 days, I will continue previewing each team, from #130-#1, and we are finally into the top half of the rankings. I will include my best prediction (guess?) for best case and worst case scenarios (season records), and will have several notes on each team. The records listed after each team is their record from 2018, not their projected record.
These rankings are my own, using a formula I designed. Just so you know, I have no intention of ever divulging my formula, but I will update it every week of the season.
One new feature is my "Hot Seat" ranking for each coach. These will be on a 5 point scale:
5- Scorching!- Win or else
4- Very Warm- improvement needed now
3- Getting Warm- results needed soon
2- Cool- Margin for error
1- Frozen- It would take a cold day in hell for them to be fired! Or at least a major scandal...
Generally, most first year coaches will be rated cool (2), but there may be some situations where the pressure is a little higher.
Following my countdown, I will preview each of the conferences. This will take 2 weeks, and will get us to the 1st game week: August 19-24. That week, I will begin my regular schedule:
Mondays- TWIF Notes- observations and impressions on every game played the previous week.
Tuesdays- Power Rankings- updated to include all games played, highlighting the biggest movers.
Wednesdays- Odds and Ends- a statistical at what has happened so far.
Thursdays- Paul's Picks- my picks for every FBS game for the coming weekend.
So, without further ado, here are teams #40-#31.
40- Minnesota Golden Gophers 7-6
Coach: PJ Fleck (3rd yr/7th overall)
Hot Seat Ranking: 2
Best Case: 9-3
Worst Case: 7-5
Notes: 8-12 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last Big Ten title was in 1967 (co-champs); non-conference games include @Fresno St (won by 7 at home last year) and Ga Southern; last year was the 1st time Minnesota had won their season finale and their bowl game in the same year!; 16 starters return- 9 Off, 7 Def; OL returns 3 starters; Offense: 65th scoring (8th B10), 64th rushing (8th), 90th passing (10th), 87th total (9th); Defense: 59th scoring (8th), 78th rushing (9th), 51st passing (7th), 54th total (6th); -4 TO margin (88th FBS, 11th B10); QB battle is unsettled between Zach Annexstad and Tanner Morgan, who each played in '18; UM rushers gained 0 or less yds on only 13% of non-sack carries (5th FBS); on defense, opposing ball carriers had 0 or less yds on 24% of runs (11th FBS); WR Tyler Johnson set program records with 1,169 yds and 12 TDs in '18; defeated Wisconsin for the 1st time since 1994, claiming Paul Bunyon's Axe; P returns, but the most accurate PK in UM history must be replaced.
39- Arizona Wildcats 5-7
Coach:Kevin Sumlin (2nd yr/12th overall)
Hot Seat Ranking: 3
Best Case: 7-5
Worst Case: 3-9
Notes: 9-11-1 in bowl games; last bowl in 2017; last title was in 1993 (PAC 10 co-champs); QB Khalil Tate returns for his senior season- 2,530 yds passing, 26 TDs, 8 INTs, 56.3% completions, 224 yds and 2 TDs rushing; non-conference games include the opener @Hawai'i and Texas Tech; 14 starters return- 8 Off, 6 Def; OL returns 3 starters; Offense: 43rd scoring (3rd PAC 12), 32nd rushing (1st), 39th passing (3rd), 24th total (1st); Defense: 98th scoring (10th), 64th rushing (8th), 121st passing (12th-last), 92nd total (10th); -4 TO margin (T90th FBS, T8th P12); P will be new, but PK needs more consistency; UA is the only original PAC 10 member without a Rose Bowl berth (joined in 1978 with ASU- both were previously in the WAC- when the PAC 8 expanded); 4 of their 7 losses were by 5 pts or less.
38- Florida State Seminoles 5-7
Coach: Willie Taggart (2nd yr/10th overall)
Hot Seat Ranking: 3
Best Case: 9-3
Worst Case: 4-8
Notes: 28-16-2 in bowl games; last bowl in 2017; last ACC title was in 2014; non-conference games include the opener against Boise St in Jacksonville, Fl, and, of course, the closer @Florida; last year was the 1st time FSU missed a bowl since 1981! (36-year streak ended); FSU was 129th in penalties assessed against them, and the offense was 126th in 3rd down conversion percentage; QB will be new after dismissal of Deondre Francois in February- either former starter James Blackman or Wisconsin graduate transfer Alex Hornibrook; defense held opposing ball carriers to only 3.5 yds per carry; 14 starters return- 6 Off, 8 Def; OL returns 2 starters; Offense: 113th scoring (13th ACC- 21.9 ppg), 127th rushing (14th-last-91.1 ypg), 28th passing (3rd), 103rd total (12th); Defense: 90th scoring (11th-31.5 ppg), T48th rushing (5th), 120th passing (14th), 80th total (9th); -11 TO margin (123rd FBS, 13th ACC); PK and P return from successful seasons; FSU had the worst field position margin in FBS- their average starting position was 9.3 yds worse than their opponent; 6 of their 7 losses were by 19 pts or more; FSU was 124th in KOR coverage- only 6 teams allowed more yardage per kickoff return; offense was 129th with 2.8 ypc rushing; '18 was the 1st losing season since 1976, Bobby Bowden's 1st year.
37- Cincinnati Bearcats 11-2
Coach: Luke Fickell 93rd yr/4th overall)
Hot Seat Ranking: 2
Best Case: 10-2
Worst Case: 7-5
Notes: 8-9 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last AAC title was in 2014 (co -champs); QB Desmond Ridder returns- 2,445 yds, 20 TDs, and 5 INTs passing and 583 yds and 5 TDs rushing; RB position is deep; early schedule is difficult- UCLA and @Ohio St are the 1st 2 games; P James Smith (46.6 yd avg) was a Ray Guy Award finalist last year, but the PK position is shaky and must show improvement; the Bearcats were 4-8 in '17, so last year marked a 7-game improvement; 14 starters return- 7 Off, 7 Def; OL returns 2 starters; Offense: 23rd scoring (4th AAC- 34.9 ppg), 15th rushing (4th-239.5 ypg), 76th passing (8th), 23rd total (4th); Defense: 8th scoring (1st- 17.2 ppg), 13th rushing (1st), 26th passing (3rd), 11th total (1st-303.5 ypg); 0 TO margin; defense had 32 sacks last year (more than in '16 and '17 combined!).
36- Syracuse Orange 10-3
Coach: Dino Babers (4th yr/6th overall)
Hot Seat Ranking: 2
Best Case: 11-1
Worst Case: 8-4
Notes: 16-9-1 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last title was in 2004 (Big East co-champs); non-conference slate has only 1 difficult game- @Maryland on Sept 7; QB Tommy DeVito takes over for Eric Dungey, a 4-year starter; Lou Groza Award winner Andre Szmyt returns for his sophomore season- he was 30-34 on FGs; P Sterling Hofrichter averaged 42.9 yds per attempt; 13 starters return- 6 Off, 7 Def; OL returns 2 starters; Offense: 11th scoring (2nd ACC-40.2 ppg), 36th rushing (5th), 31st passing (4th), 19th total (2nd); Defense: T64th scoring (6th), 63rd rushing (8th), 116th passing (12th), 87th total (10th); +13 TO margin (T5th FBS, 1st ACC); field position margin (7.6 yds) was 2nd best in FBS and best in the ACC; defense had 43 sacks; 2 of their 3 losses were by 4 and 7 pts, the other was a 36-3 loss vs. Notre Dame.
35- Virginia Cavaliers 8-5
Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (4th yr/15th overall)
Hot Seat Ranking: 2
Best Case: 10-2
Worst Case: 7-5
Notes: 8-12 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last ACC title was in 1995; QB Bryce Perkins returns- 2,680 yds, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, and 64.5% completions passing, 923 yds and 9 TDs rushing (3,603 total yds- a UVA record); defense was 12th in pass efficiency defense; UVA committed the 13th fewest penalties in FBS; 13 starters return- 6 Off, 7 Def; OL returns 3 starters; Offense: T70th scoring (9th), 60th rushing (10th), 87th passing (10th), 82nd total (10th); Defense: 21st scoring (3rd- 20.1 ppg), 47th rushing (4th), 16th passing (2nd), 20th total (3rd); +2 TO margin; all kicking duties will be held by Brian Delaney; UVA has lost to Va Tech 15 consecutive years; biggest non-conference game is @Notre Dame on Sept 28; 48% of opponent incomplete passes were either intercepted or broken up by Cavalier defenders, the highest in FBS; 2 of the 5 losses were in OT, and the others were by 4, 14, and 10.
34- South Carolina Gamecocks 7-6
Coach: Will Muschamp (4th yr/8th overall)
Hot Seat Ranking: 2
Best Case: 7-5
Worst Case: 4-8
Notes: 9-14 in bowls; last bowl in 2018; last title was 1969! (ACC); QB Jake Bentley returns, but he threw 14 INTs in '19 (6 in the Red Zone), but he also had 27 TDs; non-conference games include the opener against North Carolina in Charlotte, App St, and, of course, the annual closer against Clemson; 12 starters return- 7 Off, 5 Def; OL returns 3 starters; Offense: 57th scoring (9th SEC), 92st rushing (12th), 26th passing (4th), 43rd total (7th); Defense: 69th scoring (11th), 95th rushing (13th), 65th passing (9th), 84th total (12th); -5 TO margin (T100th FBS, 12th SEC); SC is only 1-11 against ranked opponents the last 3 years; Bryan Edwards has a chance to graduate as the school career leader in receptions, receiving yds, and receiving TDs if he can replicate his '18 stats (plus 1 TD); defense had only 16 takeaways; P Joseph Charlton averaged a school record 44.8 yds, while PK Parker White was 13-16 on FGs last year, and is 3-3 on game-winning kicks in his career, so the kicking game is in good hands; SC has perhaps the toughest schedule in the nation; HC Muschamp has more wins in his 1st 3 years than any coach in SC history; 5 of 6 losses in '18 were to teams that finished in the AP Top 16.
33- Northwestern Wildcats 9-5
Coach: Pat Fitzgerald (14th yr/14th overall)
Hot Seat Ranking: 1
Best Case: 9-3
Worst Case: 6-6
Notes: 5-10 in bowls (won last 3); last bowl in 2018; last Big Ten title was in 2000; Hunter Johnson, a transfer from Clemson, appears to be the favorite to start at QB, replacing the school's all-time passing leader (Clayton Thorson); NW has a difficult schedule, particularly early in the season: @Stanford, UNLV, Mich St, @Wisconsin, @Nebraska, Ohio St, then Iowa, so they could conceivably start the season at 1-6; 10starters return- 5 Off, 5 Def; OL returns 2 starters; Offense: 100th scoring (12th Big 10- 24.2 ppg), 120th rushing (14th-last), 59th passing (5th), 108th total (12th); Defense: 41st scoring (6th), 26th rushing (4th), 109th passing (12th), 64th total (8th); +7 TO margin (T27th FBS, 3rd Big 10); the kicking game is an adventure, as a new punter must be found, and FG accuracy must be improved- 2 kickers combined to go 8-13, with only 1 kick longer than 37 yds; NW is 15-1 in their last 16 regular season Big 10 games.
32- Virginia Tech Hokies 6-7
Coach: Justin Fuente (4th yr/8th overall)
Hot Seat Ranking: 3
Best Case: 11-1
Worst Case: 8-4
Notes: 13-19 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last ACC title was in 2010; defense surrendered the most ppg since 1973; QB Ryan Willis returns- 2,716 yds, 24 TDs, and 9 INTs passing; P Oscar Bradburn dropped 23 of his 69 punts inside the 20-yd line; PK Brian Johnson was 9-9 on FGs inside of 40 yds, but only 3-9 from 40+; last year was the 1st losing season since 1992; 16 starters return- 5 Off, 11 Def; OL returns 2 starters; Offense: 61st scoring (6th ACC), 57th rushing (9th), 41st passing (5th), 39th total (6th); Defense: 85th scoring (10th-31.0 ppg), 106th rushing (12th-210.3 ypg), 63rd passing (8th), 98th total (11th); +3 TO margin; defense gave up 42 plays of 30+ yards, 127th in FBS and worst among P5 teams; defense also gave up 35+ points in 6 of 13 games; VT has a chance to get revenge against ODU, but must also play @Notre Dame; VT has been to a bowl 26 straight years (longest current streak in FBS); offense had a 3rd down conversion rate of 37.3% (83rd FBS), probably due to having 3rd and long (7+ yds-to-go) 55% of the time; 6 of their 7 losses were by double digits, and 4 of those were by 20+ pts; defense allowed more ppg and ypg, and registered fewer sacks and INTs, than in any of legendary DC Bud Foster's previous 23 years at VT; VT did, however, beat UVA for the 15th straight time.
31- Boise State Broncos 10-3
Coach: Bryan Harsin (6th yr/7th overall)
Hot Seat Ranking: 1
Best Case: 12-0
Worst Case: 9-3
Notes: 12-6 in bowl games; last bowl in 2017 (bowl game in 2018 was cancelled); last MWC title was in 2017; QB Brett Rypien (MWC's all-time leading passer with 13,578 yds) will need to be replaced- he was the 2nd winningest QB in school history at 37-12, behind Kellen Moore, who was an unbelievable 50-3 from 2008-2011; BS has produced a 1,000-yd rusher every year for the last 10 seasons, longest streak in the nation; DC Andy Avalos left for another job, so is being replaced by co-DCs, who are switching the defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4; non-conference schedule includes FSU in Jacksonville, Marshall, and @BYU; 14 starters return- 6 Off, 8 Def; OL returns all 5 starters; BSU recovered 74% of all fumbles in '18, 3rd in FBS; Offense: 20th scoring (2nd MWC- 35.4 ppg), 66th rushing (5th), 18th passing (4th), 21st total (2nd-459.5 ypg); Defense: 30th scoring (3rd), 20th rushing (3rd), 70th passing (5th), 39th total (4th); +11 TO margin (10th FBS, 3rd MWC); K and P will be new, but, honestly, the kicking game couldn't be much worse than in '18 (2 punts blocked vs. Okla St, a missed PAT in OT loss in MWC CG); HC Harsin is 52-15 in his 5 years at BSU; offense was #2 in FBS in 3rd down conversion rate- 52.5%; defense had 39 sacks.
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