2019 CFB Preview Part XI

Welcome back!

We are 26 days away from the 1st game on Saturday, August 24! Media days for various conferences have all been completed.  Preseason practices are starting up.

Over the next 5 days, I will continue previewing each team, from #130-#1, and we are finally into the top thirty.  I will include my best prediction (guess?) for best case and worst case scenarios (season records), and will have several notes on each team.  The records listed after each team is their record from 2018, not their projected record.

These rankings are my own, using a formula I designed.  Just so you know, I have no intention of ever divulging my formula, but I will update it every week of the season.

One new feature is my "Hot Seat" ranking for each coach.  These will be on a 5 point scale:

5- Scorching!- Win or else 

4- Very Warm- improvement needed now

3- Getting Warm- results needed soon

2- Cool- Margin for error

1- Frozen- It would take a cold day in hell for them to be fired! Or at least a major scandal...

Generally, most first year coaches will be rated cool (2), but there may be some situations where the pressure is a little higher.

Following my countdown, I will preview each of the conferences.  This will take 2 weeks, and will get us to the 1st game week: August 19-24.  That week, I will begin my regular schedule:

Mondays- TWIF Notes- observations and impressions on every game played the previous week.

Tuesdays- Power Rankings- updated to include all games played, highlighting the biggest movers.

Wednesdays- Odds and Ends- a statistical at what has happened so far.

Thursdays- Paul's Picks- my picks for every FBS game for the coming weekend.

So, without further ado, here are teams #30-#21.

30- Oklahoma State Cowboys 7-6

Coach: Mike Gundy (15th yr/15th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 8-4

Worst Case: 6-6

Notes: 19-10 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last Big 12 title was in 2011; last non-bowl season was in 2005; OSU beat 3 ranked teams in '18, but lost to an unranked team immediately after each upset win; non-conference games include @Oregon St; QB will be new, and is still unsettled; OC Sean Gleeson is new; 10 starters return- 5 Off, 5 Def; OL returns 3 starters; Offense: 13th scoring (3rd B12- 38.4 ppg), 46th rushing (2nd), 10th passing (4th-309.8 ypg), 10th total (3rd-500.2 ypg); Defense: 97th scoring (9th-32.5 ppg-worst in school history!), 87th rushing (10th-last), 118th passing (8th), 112th total (9th); -9 TO margin (T117th FBS, T9th-last-B12);WR Tylan Wallace returns- 86 catches for 1,491 yds and 12 TDs (All-American); offense allowed 34 sacks; defense had only 5 INTs (T118th FBS); PK Matt Ammendola has 251 career pts, and is 40-52 on FGs (53 yds is longest); P will be new; OSU has 13 straight winning seasons; HC Gundy is the 3rd longest tenured coach in FBS; OSU is 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. top 25 teams.

29- Missouri Tigers 8-5

Coach: Barry Odom (4th yr/4th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 11-1

Worst Case: 8-4

Notes: 15-18 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last title was in 1969! (Big 8 co-champs); last non-bowl season was 2016; QB Drew Lock has graduated, but should be replaced by Kelly Bryant, a graduate transfer from Clemson; Mizzou is ineligible for a bowl game this year, but has appealed the NCAA decision; RB Larry Rountree III returns- 1,216 yds, 11 TDs, 5.4 yd average; defense allowed only 3.7 ypc; PK Tucker McCann was just 24-33 on FGs, and 8-14 on attempts of 40+ yds- it's possible he will also punt in '19; non-conference games include @Wyoming, West Virginia, and Troy; 13 starters return- 7 Off, 6 Def; OL returns 3 starters; Offense: 18th scoring (3rd SEC), 33rd rushing (5th), 22nd passing (3rd), 13th total (3rd); Defense: 50th scoring (9th), 22nd rushing (4th), 112th passing (14th-last), 62nd total (10th); +1 TO margin; TE Albert Okwuegbunam had 43 catches, 6 TDs, and averaged 10.8 ypc; offense allowed the fewest sacks and TFL in the SEC; Special teams need work- PR unit was 129th FBS, and MU had 3 FGs, a punt, and a PAT blocked; offense gained 0 or less on only 14% of non-sack carries (6th FBS), and allowed sacks on only 2.9% of pass attempts (6th FBS); last November loss was in 2016.

28- USC Trojans 5-7

Coach: Clay Helton (5th yr/5th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 4

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 6-6

Notes: 35-19 in bowl games; last bowl in 2017; last PAC 12 title in 2017; 5 AP National Championships, last in 2004; non-conference schedule includes Fresno St, @BYU, and @Notre Dame; 9 starters return- 5 Off, 4 Def; OL returns 2 starters; USC lost 5 of last 6 games, after starting the season 4-2; QB job is up in the air (JT Daniels was challenged in the Spring by Jack Sears), but receivers are top-notch; Offense: T91st scoring (T9th PAC12), 107th rushing (10th), 49th passing (6th), 84th total (10th); Defense: T64th scoring (8th), 67th rushing (9th), 61st passing (5th), 60th total (7th); -10 TO margin (T119th FBS, T11th-last-PAC 12);  early schedule will set the tone for the season: Fresno St, Stanford, @BYU, Utah, @Washington, and @ND; later, Oregon and their annual rival UCLA visit; P will be new, and the PK is unsettled; defense allowed 3.5 passes per game of 20+ yds (87th FBS), and 2.1 per game of 30+ yds (65th FBS); offense allowed 27 sacks; defense ranked 49th with 29 sacks; last year was their 1st losing season since 2000; USC blew double-digit leads in 4 games in '18!

27- Mississippi State Bulldogs 8-5

Coach: Joe Moorhead (2nd yr/2nd overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 6-6

Notes: 13-9 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last SEC title was in 1941!; last non-bowl season was in 2009; QB Nick Fitzgerald must be replaced- Keytaon Thompson is the front runner, but he completed only 47.6% of passes, though he is 2-0 as a starter and averaged 6.8 ypc rushing; non-conference schedule is quite easy, with Kansas St at home being the biggest challenge; 9 starters return- 6 Off, 3 Def; OL returns 3 starters; Offense: 68th scoring (10th), 20th rushing (2nd), 112th passing (13th), 71st total (10th); Defense: 2nd scoring (1st-13.2 ppg), 2nd rushing (1st-95.1 ypg), 7th passing (1st), 1st total (1st-263.1 ypg!); +7 TO margin (26th FBS, 5th SEC); offense scored 7 pts or less in 4 out of 8 SEC games (those teams were a combined 44-10, with 3 winning New Year's Six bowl games); PK and P are back, but P is being pushed by 2 JC transfers (38.9 punting average was 110th FBS); LBs are a strength; MSU was the only team to complete less than 51.3% of passes (51.1%) and still have a winning record; the Oct 19 home game against LSU is the only home game between Sept 21 and Nov 2 (away games include @Auburn, @Tenn, @Texas A&M, @Ark); Bob Shoop was the 5th DC in 5 years, but he returns in '19; defense allowed only 12 TDs in the regular season, best in FBS (#2 allowed 19!)- best in FBS since 2012; MSU has only had 1 winning record in the SEC since 1999 (2014).

26- Miami Hurricanes 7-6

Coach: Manny Diaz (1st yr/1st overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 12-0

Worst Case: 8-4

Notes: 19-21 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last title was in 2003 (Big East co-champs); last non-bowl season was in 2012; LBs should be one of the best in the nation; defense was 1st FBS in pass efficiency and in 3rd down conversion percentage; new OC is Dan Enos; QG is still to be decided between N'Kosi Perry and Ohio St transfer Tate Martell; non-conference games include the opener against Florida in Orlando, C Mich, and FIU in Marlins Stadium; 10 starters return- 4 Off, 6 Def; OL returns 2 starters; Offense: 66th scoring (9th), 45th rushing (7th),113th passing (12th), 105th total (13th); Defense: 18th scoring (2nd-19.5 ppg), 42nd rushing (3rd), 1st passing (1st-135.6 ypg), 4th total (1st-278.9 ypg); -1 TO margin; PK Bubba Baxa was 9-12 on FGs as a freshman in '18, but P Jack Spicer only averaged 37.7.

25- Nebraska Cornhuskers 4-8

Coach: Scott Frost (2nd yr/4th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 11-1

Worst Case: 8-4

Notes: 26-27 in bowl games; last bowl in 2016; last title was in 1999 (Big 12); 4 AP National Championships, last in 1995; QB Adrian Martinez returns- 2,617 yds, 17 TDs, 8 INTs, and 64.6% completions passing, and 629 yds, 8 TDs, and 4.5 ypc rushing; Nebraska was 0-5 on the road; NU started the season 0-6 (1st time ever- losing streak at 10 games-longest in program history), but finished 4-2; non-conference schedule includes S Ala, @Colorado, and N Ill; 11 starters return- 6 Off, 5 Def; OL returns 2 starters; Offense: 58th scoring (6th B10), 28th rushing (4th), 52nd passing (4th), 25th total (2nd); Defense: 88th scoring (12th), 96th rushing (12th), 78th passing (10th), 94th total (12th); -2 TO margin; PK Barret Pickering (14-18 FGs) and P Isaac Armstrong (43.6 average) both return; 5 of 8 losses were by 5 pts or less, 1 on OT; NU's average starting field position margin was -4.7 yds per drive, 116th in FBS and 13th in B10; defense allowed 3rd most ypg (433.5) and ppg (31.3) since 1946 (1st year records were kept).

24- TCU Horned Frogs 7-6

Coach: Gary Patterson (19th yr/19th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 1

Best Case: 11-1

Worst Case: 7-5

Notes: 17-6-1 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last Big 12 title was in 2014 (co-champs); last non-bowl season was in 2004; last- and only- AP National Championship was in 1938; TCU is 9-0 under HC Patterson when passing for 100 or fewer yds; over last 5 seasons, TCU is 2nd in the Big 12 in overall record (47-19) and in conference record (30-15); QB will be new, with Kansas St transfer Alex Delton the likely choice; new P will hope to improve on TCU's last place conference finish in net punting; non-conference games include @Purdue and SMU; this was the only conference team that lost to Kansas in '18; WR Jalen Reagor returns (72 receptions, 1,061 yds, 9 TDs in '18); 12 starters return- 7 Off, 5 Def; OL returns 2 starters; Offense: 107th scoring (9th Big 12), 82nd rushing (7th), 88th passing (8th), 99th total (8th); Defense: 40th scoring (2nd), T34th rushing (3rd), 37th passing (1st), 24th total (1st-338.2 ypg); -5 TO margin (100th FBS, 8th Big12); TU has 2 PK who have played, but both are inconsistent; TCU ended'18 on a 3-game winning streak.

23- Stanford Cardinal 9-4

Coach: David Shaw (9th yr/9th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 1

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 8-4

Notes: 15-14-1 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last PAC 12 title was in 2015; last non-bowl year was 2008; PK Jet Toner returns (14-15 FGs, 34-34 PATs); QB KJ Costello returns (3,540 yds-2nd in school history, 29 TDs- 3rd, and led PAC12 in passing efficiency; DBs should be a strength; non-conference games include Northwestern Opener), @UCF, and Notre Dame (closer), which has to be one of the most difficult in the nation; Stanford is on a 4-game winning streak; 8 starters return- 3 Off, 5 Def; OL returns 1 starter; Offense: 73rd scoring (6th-PAC12), 123rd rushing (11th-107.9 ypg), 25th passing (2nd), 86th total (11th); Defense: T37th scoring (3rd), 45th rushing (7th), 115th passing (11th), 78th total (9th); +3 TO margin; RB Bryce Love must be replaced; P will be new; opening schedule is difficult: NW, @USC, @UCF, Oregon- if they go 2-2 or better, it would really set the tone for a successful season- 0-4 and the season may be lost; offense gained 0 or less yds 24.3% of non-sack rushing plays, 124th FBS; HC Shaw, with 82 wins, has more wins at Stanford than any other coach (Pop Warner had 71); since 2010, Stanford is 92-27, which is 6th behind Alabama, Ohio St, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Boise St; HC Shaw is 4th in most wins since he took over in 2011, behind Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, and Urban Meyer.

22- Iowa State Cyclones 8-5

Coach: Matt Campbell (4th yr/8th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 11-1

Worst Case: 7-5

Notes: 4-10 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last title was in 1912! (Missouri Valley co-champs); last non-bowl season was 2016; QB Brock Purdy returns: 7-2 as a starter, single-season school records in completion percentage (66.4) and passing efficiency (169.9), 2,250 yds, 16 TDs, and 7 INTs passing, 308 yds, 5 TDs, and 3.1 ypc rushing; ISU was the Big 12's 2nd-least penalized team; non-conference games include FCS N Iowa, Iowa, and ULM, all at home, so, at worst, they should be 2-1when the conference schedule starts, and they could be anywhere from 6-2 to 8-0 when they travel to Oklahoma on Oct 26; 14 starters return- 7 Off, 7 Def; OL returns all 5 starters, with 4 being seniors!; Offense: 83rd scoring (7th- Big12), 112th rushing (10th-last), 58th passing (7th), 96th total (7th); Defense: T37th scoring (1st-22.9 ppg), 14th rushing (1st-115.0 ypg), 72nd passing (2nd), 33rd total (2nd); -3 TO margin; entire DL returns all 3 starters (2 seniors and a junior) and 2 of 3 LBs; PK Connor Assalley was 16-23 on FGs with a long of 50; P Corey Dunn returns (40.2), but needs more consistency; ISU has not won 8 games in 3 straight seasons since 1976-78- they won 8 games each in '17 and '18; RB David Montgomery (2-time All-B12) must be replaced, as wellas WR Hakeem Butler (1,318 yds, 9 TDs, and a 22.0 ypc average- best in FBS for anyone with 35+ catches); defense was 9th FBS in yards per rush (3.26); HC Campbell has been Big12 Coach of the Year for 2 straight seasons.

21- Washington State Cougars 11-2

Coach: Mike Leach (8th yr/18th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 1

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 7-5

Notes: 8-7 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last title was in 2002 (PAC 10 co-champs); last non-bowl season was 2014; QB Gardner Minshew (broke PAC 12 single-season passing record with 4,779 yds!) must be replaced, and grad transfer Gage Gubrud (from Eastern Washington- 9,984 yds in 32 games, including 474 against WSU in a 45-42 upset win in 2016) looks to be his replacement; defense led PAC 12 with 2.92 sacks per game; non-conference games include @Wyoming, San Jose St, and E Wash, so the Cougars should be 3-0 when they open their conference schedule @USC; 13 starters return- 7 Off, 6 Def; OL returns 4 starters; Offense: 15th scoring (1st-PAC 12), 129th rushing (12th-last-77.7 ypg), 1st passing (1st-373.8 ypg), 27th total (2nd); Defense: 42nd scoring (3rd), 38th rushing (2nd), 56th passing (3rd), 42nd total (3rd); +8 TO margin (T2oth FBS, 2nd P12); P Oscar Draguicevich averaged 45.7 per punt and PK is solid, though 2 kicks were blocked; WSU has lost 6 straight to Washington, and 9 of the last 10 in the battle for the Apple Cup; defense had sacks on 14% of passing downs (2nd-8, or 3rd-or-4th and 5 or more), best in FBS; WSU has won 37 games (against 15 losses) the last 4 seasons, compared to 36 wins in the previous 10 years!; WSU is 26-12 in the PAC 12 in the last 4 years; WSU has won 3-straight against Stanford, 4-in-a-row against Oregon, and 5 consecutive against Oregon St; offense gave up just 1 sack per every 52 pass attempts; 7 of the top 8 WRs return.

That's all for today!  Come back tomorrow for teams #20-16.  Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!