2019 CFB Preview Part XII

Welcome back!

We are 25 days away from the 1st game on Saturday, August 24! Media days for various conferences have all been completed.  Preseason practices are starting up.

Over the next 4 days, I will continue previewing each team, from #130-#1, and we are finally into the top thirty.  I will include my best prediction (guess?) for best case and worst case scenarios (season records), and will have several notes on each team.  The records listed after each team is their record from 2018, not their projected record.

These rankings are my own, using a formula I designed.  Just so you know, I have no intention of ever divulging my formula, but I will update it every week of the season.

One new feature is my "Hot Seat" ranking for each coach.  These will be on a 5 point scale:

5- Scorching!- Win or else 

4- Very Warm- improvement needed now

3- Getting Warm- results needed soon

2- Cool- Margin for error

1- Frozen- It would take a cold day in hell for them to be fired! Or at least a major scandal...

Generally, most first year coaches will be rated cool (2), but there may be some situations where the pressure is a little higher.

Following my countdown, I will preview each of the conferences.  This will take 2 weeks, and will get us to the 1st game week: August 19-24.  That week, I will begin my regular schedule:

Mondays- TWIF Notes- observations and impressions on every game played the previous week.

Tuesdays- Power Rankings- updated to include all games played, highlighting the biggest movers.

Wednesdays- Odds and Ends- a statistical at what has happened so far.

Thursdays- Paul's Picks- my picks for every FBS game for the coming weekend.

So, without further ado, here are teams #20-#16.

20- Wisconsin Badgers 8-5

Coach: Paul Chryst (5th yr/8th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 7-5

Notes: 16-14 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last Big Ten title was in 2012; last non-bowl season was 2001; RB Jonathan Taylor returns- 2,194 yds (5 games of 200+ yds!), 16 TDs, and a 7.1 ypc average- his career record of 4,171 is an FBS record for 2 years rushing; OL must replace 3 former All-Americans; QB is unsettled as Alex Hornibrook transferred to FSU, so it will be between Jack Coan, who filled in when Hornibrook was injured (515 yds, 5 TDs and 3 INTs passing), and Graham Mertz, a true freshman; non-conference schedule includes @USF and 2 MAC teams- C Mich and Kent St; after the opener @USF on Aug 30, the next away game is Oct 19- 5 straight home games, but 4 of their last 6 are away; 8 starters return- 3 Off, 5 Def; OL returns only 1 starter; Offense: 62nd scoring (7th-Big 10), 6th rushing (1st-273.4 ypg), 119th passing (12th), 36th total (4th); Defense: 34th scoring (5th), 54th rushing (5th), 22nd passing (5th), 3-29th total (4th); +1 TO margin; the Badgers draw Michigan, Mich St, and Ohio St out of the East, but only OSU is on the road; PK will be new, but punting needs to improve- 38.1 yd average was 13th in the Big 10 (net punting was last in the B10); rushers gained 4+ yds on 61% of their non-sack carries (best in FBS), and had 0 or less tds on only 12% (2nd FBS); HC Chryst is just the 5th Big Ten coach to win 40+ games his 1st 4 years (42-12 record); defense allowed 24.2 ppg, highest this decade, and had only 19 sacks; UW has won its last 5 bowl games, after a stretch where they lost 6 out of 7.

19- UCF Knights 12-1

Coach: Josh Heupel (2nd yr/2nd overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 1

Best Case: 12-0

Worst Case: 8-4

Notes: 4-6 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last AAC title was in 2018; last non-bowl season in 2015; UCF had a 25-game winning streak snapped in their loss to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl; UCF has won 4 AAC championships (2013, 2014, 2017, 2018) in the 1st 6 years of the league; UCF has a 16-game conference winning streak; if QB McKenzie Milton can't return from his knee injury, then Notre Dame graduate transfer Brandon Wimbush (13-3 as a starter) or Darriel Mack, a sophomore, will take over there; RBs Greg McRae (1,182 yds, 10 TDs, and 8.9 ypc rushing) and Adrian Killins, Jr (715 yds and 4 TDs rushing, 19 catches for 377 yds) return; 3 of top 4 WRs return; both PK and P will likely be freshmen; 12 starters return- 7 Off, 5 Def; OL returns 3 starters; Offense: 6th scoring (2nd AAC- 43.2 ppg), 8th rushing (3rd-265.2 ypg), 37th passing (4th), 5th total (2nd-522.7 ypg); Defense: 36th scoring (2nd), 118th rushing (9th), 49th passing (5th), 95th total (8th); +14 TO margin (3rd FBS, 1st AAC); offense averaged a play every 20.1 seconds, 2nd fastest in FBS; non-conference games include Stanford and @Pitt (back-to-back); offense has scored 30+ points in a school record 26 straight games.

18- Iowa Hawkeyes 9-4

Coach: Kirk Ferentz 21st yr/21st overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 1

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 7-5

Notes: 16-15-1 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last Big Ten title was in 2004 (co-champs); last non-bowl season in 2012; led the Big Ten in TOs created and fewest sacks allowed; QB Nate Stanley returns- 2,852 yds, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 59.3% completions passing- this will be his 3rd year as a starter; non-conference games include the annual rivalry game @Iowa St; crossover games include @Michigan and Penn St; 3 of 4 losses were by 6 pts or less, with the other by 11; 9 starters return- 5 Off, 4 Def; OL returns 2 starters; Offense: 44th scoring (4th Big Ten), 95th rushing (10th), 72nd passing (6th), 92nd total (10th); Defense: 11th scoring (2nd-17.8 ppg), 12th rushing (2nd-109.5ypg), 17th passing (3rd-184.1 ypg), 7th total (2nd-293.6 ypg); +9 TO margin (T16 FBS, 2nd B10); top 2 TEs graduated to the NFL and must be replaced; all 4 starters on the DL must be replaced; PK and P have candidates, but roles are unsettled as of now; Ihmir Smith-Marsette led the Big Ten in KOR, averaging 29.5, and may also return punts this year; QB targeted TEs on 34% of passes, most in FBS (only 3 other schools were even over 30%); offense averaged only 1.6 plays per game of 30+ yds (113th FBS), but their defense only allowed 1.5 (17th); HC Ferentz becomes the longest tenured coach in Iowa history this year, passing the legendary Hayden Fry, and he is only the 5th Big Ten coach to surpass 150 wins (he has 152); Ferentz is also the longest tenured head coach in FBS.

17- Penn State Nittany Lions 9-4

Coach: James Franklin (6th yr/9th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 8-4

Notes: 29-18-2 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last Big Ten title was in 2016; last non-bowl season in 2013; PSU has 2 AP National Championships, 1982 and 1986; 3-year starting QB Trace McSorley must be replaced; non-conference schedule includes FCS Idaho, Buffalo, and Pitt, all at home; 11 returning starters- 5 Off, 6 Def; OL returns 3 starters; Offense: 32nd scoring (3rd Big Ten), 29th rushing (5th), 77th passing (7th), 45th total (5th); Defense: 23rd scoring (4th), 72nd rushing (7th), 15th passing (2nd), 34th total (5th); -1 TO margin; PK Jake Pinegar was inconsistent, as he was 16-24 on FGs and missed2 PATs; P Blake Gillikin, entering his senior year, is the top punter in PSU history (43.3 yd average), but had 2 punts blocked last year; defense allowed only 1.5 plays per game of 30+ yds (17yh FBS) and only 2.2 passes per game of 20+ yds (9th); PSU has won 31 games in the last 3 years (1st time since 1994-96); defense led the FBS with 3.6 sacks per game (47 total), and was 4th in TFLs (8.2 per game).

16- Michigan State Spartans 7-6

Coach: Mark Dantonio (13th yr/16th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 6-6

Notes: 12-16 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last Big Ten title was in 2015; last non-bowl season was 2016; last- and only- AP National Championship was in 1952; offense converted only 33.5% of 3rd downs, 2nd worst in the B10; defense held 4 opponents to 10 pts or less, but MSU was omly 2-2 in those games; QB Brian Lewerke returns- 2,040 yds, 8 TDs, 11 INTs passing, 184 yds, 2 TDs , 2.0 avg rushing; non-conference games include Tulsa, W Mich, and Arizona St, all at home; offense didn't score more than 24 pts in its last 9 games, and scored 6 in 3 of its last 4; 17 starters return- 9 Off, 8 Def; OL returns 4 starters; Offense: 126th scoring (13th Big Ten-18.7 ppg- worst since 2000), 115th rushing (13th), 78th passing (8th), 117th total (13th-342.1 ypg- worst since 1991); Defense: 8th scoring (1st-17.2 ppg), 1st rushing (1st-77.9 ypg), 62nd passing (8th), 10th total (3rd-303.1 ypg); +1 TO margin; P Jake Hartbarger has a career average of 42.1 yds per punt; PK Matt Coghlin was 18-22 FGs in '18 (longest 49 yds), and is 33-41 for his career; offense averaged just 5.2 yards per play on 1st down (109th FBS), and only 1.1 plays of 30+ yds per game (126th); defense allowed only 1.1 plays per game of 30+ yds, 4th in FBS; MSU's 85 wins since 2010 are 3rd most in the Big Ten, and tied for 11th among P5 teams.

That's all for today!  Come back tomorrow for teams #15-10.  Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!