2019 CFB Preview Part XIII

Welcome back!

We are 24 days away from the 1st game on Saturday, August 24! Media days for various conferences have all been completed.  Preseason practices are starting up.

Over the next 3 days, I will continue previewing each team, from #130-#1, and we are finally into the top thirty.  I will include my best prediction (guess?) for best case and worst case scenarios (season records), and will have several notes on each team.  The records listed after each team is their record from 2018, not their projected record.

These rankings are my own, using a formula I designed.  Just so you know, I have no intention of ever divulging my formula, but I will update it every week of the season.

One new feature is my "Hot Seat" ranking for each coach.  These will be on a 5 point scale:

5- Scorching!- Win or else 

4- Very Warm- improvement needed now

3- Getting Warm- results needed soon

2- Cool- Margin for error

1- Frozen- It would take a cold day in hell for them to be fired! Or at least a major scandal...

Generally, most first year coaches will be rated cool (2), but there may be some situations where the pressure is a little higher.

Following my countdown, I will preview each of the conferences.  This will take 2 weeks, and will get us to the 1st game week: August 19-24.  That week, I will begin my regular schedule:

Mondays- TWIF Notes- observations and impressions on every game played the previous week.

Tuesdays- Power Rankings- updated to include all games played, highlighting the biggest movers.

Wednesdays- Odds and Ends- a statistical at what has happened so far.

Thursdays- Paul's Picks- my picks for every FBS game for the coming weekend.

So, without further ado, here are teams #15-#11.

15- Oregon Ducks 9-4

Coach: Mario Cristobal (2nd yr/8th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 11-1

Worst Case: 9-3

Notes: 14-18 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last Pac 12 title was in 2014; last non-bowl season was 2016; QB Justin Herbert returns for his senior season as a 4th year starter- 3,151 yds, 29 TDs, 8 INTs and a 59.4 completion percentage passing, 166 yds, 2 TDs and 2.3 ypc rushing; offense allowed only 22 sacks; non-conference schedule includes Auburn in Arlington, TX, Nevada, and FCS Montana; 19 (19!) starters return- 12 Off, 7 Def; OL returns 6 starters!; Offense: 25th scoring (2nd Pac 12), 54th rushing (4th), 50th passing (7th), 41st total (3rd); Defense: 48th scoring (6th), 43rd rushing (5th), 82nd passing (8th), 55th total (6th); +5 TO margin (T35th FBS, 3rd Pac12); new DC is Andy Avalos; P Blake Malmone returns (42.5 average); PK is unsettled, with 2 battling for the spot; HC Cristobal was the 3rd HC in 3 years last year; receivers dropped 52 passes in 13 games, an average of 4 per game.

14- Texas Longhorns 10-4

Coach: Tom Herman (3rd yr/5th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 1

Best Case: 12-0

Worst Case: 9-3

Notes: 29-24-2 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last Big 12 title was in 2009; last non-bowl season was 2016; UT has 3 AP National Championships- 1963, 1969, 2005; QB Sam Ehlinger returns- 3,292 yds, 25 TDs, 5 INTs passing (he also set the Big 12 record for most consecutive passes-308- without an INT), 482 yds, 16 TDs (led Big 12), and a 2.9 ypc rushing; 7 starters return- 5 Off, 2 Def; OL returns 2 starters; Offense: 47th scoring (5th Big 12), 91st rushing (8th), 35th passing (6th), 58th total (6th); Defense: 57th scoring (4th), 28th rushing (2nd), 110th passing (7th), 67th total (3rd); +9 TO margin (19th FBS, 2nd Big 12); defense allowed 43.3% 3rd down conversions; PK and P both return, and both are more than adequate; non-conference games include La Tech, LSU, and Rice (the Longhorns are glad they don't see Maryland again!); 3 of their 4 losses were by 5 pts or less, with the other by only 12; UT was 1 of 3 schools not to have an offensive TD of 50+ yds; UT won 6 games by 7 pts or less in '18.

13- Auburn Tigers 8-5

Coach: Gus Malzahn (7th yr/8th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 4

Best Case: 9-3

Worst Case: 5-7

Notes: 24-17-2 in bowl games; last bowl was 2018; last SEC title was in 2013; last non-bowl season was 2012; AU has 2 AP National Championships- 1957 and 2010; QB Jarrett Stidham must be replaced, and there are several candidates; all 4 starters return in the defensive backfield; non-conference games include Oregon in Arlington, TX, Tulane, Kent St, and FCS Samford; 13 returning starters- 6 Off, 7 Def; OL returns all 5 starters, all seniors!; Offense: 48th scoring (8th SEC), 68th rushing (10th), 75th passing (9th), 79th total (11th); Defense: 14th scoring (4th-19.2 ppg), 32nd rushing (6th), 58th passing (7th), 38th total (8th); +9 TO margin (T16th FBS, 3rd SEC); HC Malzahn plans to resume calling plays in '19; P Arryn Siposs averaged 44.2 yards per kick (18th FBS); PK Anders Carlson was 15-25 on FGs, but only 2-9 at 50+ yds; offense had 4.1 plays per game of 20+ yds (102nd FBS) and 1.2 of 40+ (50th); DL may be among the best in the nation; offense didn't have a 1,000 yd rusher for the first time since 2009; AU destroyed Purdue in the Music City Bowl, 63-14 (AU had 56 at the half!); LB is a question mark; HC Malzahn is 6-13 vs. Alabama, Georgia, and LSU.

12- Utah Utes 9-5

Coach: Kyle Whittingham (15th yr/15th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking:  2

Best Case: 12-0

Worst Case: 10-2

Notes: 17-5 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last title was in 2008 (Mountain West); last non-bowl season was 2013; the new OC is Andy Ludwig, who was OC here in 2005-2008- this is the 9th OC change in the last 11 years; Sr QB Tyler Huntley returns- 1,788 yds, 12 TDs, 6 INTs passing, 304 yds, 4 TDs, and 2.8 ypc rushing, but he'll be poushed by Jason Shelley- 1,162 yds, 5 TDs, 6 INTs passing, 192 yds, 3 TDs, 3.0 ypc rushing; PK and P will both be new, replacing last year's Lou Groza and Ray Guy Award winners!; non-conference games include the opener @BYU, N Ill, and FCS Idaho St; 15 returning starters- 8 Off, 7 Def; OL returns 3 starters; Offense: 76th scoring (7th Pac 12), 53rd rushing (3rd), 79th passing (11th), 72nd total (7th); Defense: 17th scoring (2nd-19.4 ppg), 5th rushing (1st-100.3 ypg), 53rd passing (3rd), 14th total (2nd-315.6 ypg); -5 TO margin (99th FBS, 10th Pac 12); Utah was the last team in the Pac 12 South to reach the conference championship game; defense allowed runners 0 or less yds on 28% of non-sack carries, 2nd in FBS 1st Pac 12); offense had just 1.9 plays per game of 30+ yds (90th FBS); HC Whittingham is the 3rd longest tenured coach at the same school, and has 4 of Utah's 10-win seasons since 1892, and he's 11-2 in bowls.

11 Texas A&M Aggies 9-4

Coach: Jimbo Fisher (2nd yr/10th overall)

Hot Seat Ranking: 2

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 8-4

Notes: 18-22 in bowl games; last bowl in 2018; last title was in 1998 (Big 12); last non-bowl season was 2008; TAMU has 1 AP National Championship- 1939; QB Kellen Mond returns- 3,107 yds, 24 TDs, 9 INTs and 57.4% completions passing, 474 yds, 7TDs, 3.2 ypc rushing; P Braden Mann averaged 51.0 yds per punt, best in NCAA history; PK Seth Small was 20-28 FGs, but only 10-14 from 30-39 yds; 11 starters return- 7 Off, 4 Def; OL returns 4 starters (all juniors); Offense: 19th scoring (4th SEC), 21st rushing (2nd-219.0 ypg), 44th passing (5th), 15th total (4th-471.6 ypg); Defense: 47th scoring (8th), 3rd rushing (2nd-95.2 ypg), 98th passing (12th), 32nd total (7th); -7 TO margin (T108th FBS, 13th SEC); TAMU had its highest finish (2nd) since joining the SEC in 2012; non-conference games include @Clemson, and their SEC crossover games are @Georgia and S Carolina (their permanent foe); TAMU was 8-0 when allowing 24 pts or less, 1-4 when giving up 28+ (the only win was the 7 OT game against LSU).

That's all for today!  Come back tomorrow for teams #10-6.  Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!