Paul's Picks- Week 10
Welcome back!
Last week was pretty bad, as I went 37-18 for a .673 win percentage. Overall, I am 433-125, which is still 77.6%. Still not too bad, but I'm still below 80%, and I'm afraid I'll probably stay there for the rest of the season. My goal now is to stay above 75%!
There are a lot of interesting games this week as most teams have finished their non-conference slate, but there are a few still remaining. There is only one game against an FCS program this week.
I will be out of town this weekend (another marching competition...), so I will be keeping up with scores by phone, and occasionally seeing part of a game here and there.
On to the predictions!
Thursday, October 31
West Virginia @ Baylor- The Bears are still undefeated, and both teams are coming out of an off week. The biggest win for the Mountaineers so far has been a rout of NC State in week 3. As long as the players aren't looking ahead to games @TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas, Baylor wins, and wins easily.
Georgia Southern @Appalachian State- This rivalry was played 6 times between 1932 and 1939, wasn't played again until 1987, and now is played annually, beginning in 1993 (they played twice in 2001- the 2nd time in the FCS Playoffs). ASU holds a 19-14-1 lead in the series, as they have won 3 of the last 4, 6 of the last 8, and 10 of the last 14. The Eagles have won 3 straight after losing 3 of their 1st 4, but the Mountaineers are undefeated and at home. ASU wins.
Friday, November 1
Navy @ UConn- The Huskies finally got a win over an FBS team (UMass), but they really don't have a chance against the Midshipmen. Navy wins.
Saturday, November 2
Michigan @ Maryland- The Wolverines routed Notre Dame last week, and should rout the Terrapins this week, but it wouldn't surprise me if Maryland keeps this close for a half or so, but ultimately Michigan wins.
NC State @ Wake Forest- Both teams were off last week, so they should be well rested. The Wolfpack have lost 2 of their last 3, but the Demon Deacons are having a special season. That continues this week as WF wins at home.
Houston @ UCF- The Cougars have 5 losses, but 3 are by 7 points or less, including by 3 to undefeated SMU last week. The Knights have 2 losses, but are on a 2-game winning streak. UCF wins, but it will be close.
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles have been a hard-luck team the last few years, with most of their losses 1-score games. They started the season 3-1, but have lost 3 of their last 4. The Bulls started 2-4, but are on a 2-game winning streak, with routs of Akron and CMU. All signs point to a Buffalo win, but I'm going with EMU at home.
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan- The Huskies began 2019 1-4, but are 2-1 since. The Chippewas had a 3-game winning streak snapped last week. CMU gets back in the win column.
Nebraska @ Purdue- Neither of these teams are very good, but the Boilermakers lost to Illinois. Cornhuskers win on the road.
Boston College @ Syracuse- I have no idea who is going to win any game between ACC teams, because the underdog wins as often as the favorite. Both of these teams have been disappointments, as both were expected to challenge for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division. Go with the home team- Syracuse wins.
UTSA @ Texas A&M- The Aggies will roll over the Roadrunners.
ODU @ FIU- The Monarchs have been one of the worst teams in the FBS, with no wins against FBS competition. Their average margin of defeat has been by 17.3 points. The Panthers lost last week to end their 3-game winning streak, but they should have no problems with ODU. FIU wins.
Liberty @ Umass- Independents were a combined 0-5 last week, but this week, a winner is guaranteed, thanks to this matchup. The Flames had a 5-game winning streak ended last week @Rutgers, so they should be fired up to gain bowl eligibility this week. The Minutemen lost to UConn last week, which just about tells you everything you need to know. Umass is giving up an average of 50.6 ppg, and have held only 1 team, Akron- which scored a season high 29 points, below 44. Liberty wins.
Akron @ Bowling Green- The Zips are putrid on offense, averaging 1p.75 ppg, and they've been outscored 96-3 in their last 3 games, all conference losses. The Falcons have been shut out twice, and are averaging only 15.4 ppg. All evidence screams a close, low scoring game, so it'll probably be a shootout. BG wins.
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame- The Hokies have won 3 straight games, and had an off week last week. The Fighting Irish got blown out by Michigan. With their playoff hopes destroyed, motivation/morale for the Irish may be low. This is a classic case of a "trap" game for ND, but I think they win a close game.
Troy @ Coastal Carolina- The Trojans have taken a step back this year, and have lost 3 of their last 4. The Chanticleers have lost 3 straight, but had an off week last week. This may be close, but Troy wins on the road.
Georgia vs. Florida (Jacksonville)- The Dawgs and Gators had the week off to prepare, and there will probably be a trick play or 2 on both sides, but this game always comes down to who can run the ball and who can control the line of scrimmage. I have had a growing feeling over the last few weeks that this just may be Florida's year, but that's starting to change into cautious optimism for the Dawgs to win. I was fully prepared to pick the Gators, but UGA wins a close one.
Kansas State @ Kansas- Both teams are coming off of upset wins last week, so it could be the team that stays the most focused in preparation wins this, but the Wildcats have been the better team all season, and 1 win by the Jayhawks doesn't negate a 4-game losing streak. KSU wins.
Arkansas State @ ULM- Both of these teams are still in the hunt for the SBC West crown, and both teams have lost 2 of 3. Even though the Warhawks are at home, I'm going with the Red Wolves.
Marshall @ Rice- The Thundering Herd are on a 3-game winning streak, and I don't see the Owls ending that streak. Marshall wins.
UTEP @ North Texas- The Miners only have 1 win, and that was by 2 over an FCS opponent. Their closest loss was by 10 to fellow CUSA member UTSA. The Mean Green beat that same UTSA team by 42. While they've lost 3 of their last 4, NT is still better than UTEP. NT wins.
Army @ Air Force- The Black Knights have had a disappointing season so far, but a victory over the Falcons would make everything much better. Air Force has been a surprise at 6-2 with their only losses on the road at Boise St and Navy. AF wins, but Army will put up a fight.
Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte- The 49ers upset North Texas last week, but that was their 1st victory since week 3. The Blue Raiders routed FIU, and even though they are 0-4 on the road this year, MT wins.
UNLV @ Colorado State- The Rams surprised nearly everyone by defeating Fresno St on the road, and have a (very) outside shot at a bowl game. The Rebels have a big win over Vandy, but that is their only FBS win this season. CSU wins.
Miami @ FSU- It was assumed that when the Hurricanes joined the ACC, they would dominate. That hasn't happened to date, and the Seminoles haven't had a great season since 2014. Like every other ACC game not involving Clemson, this is tough to call, so I'm going with FSU to win at home.
TCU @ Oklahoma State- Both of these teams had big wins last week as underdogs, and the question is if either is a legitimate challenger for the top half of the Big 12. Both have similar resumes, but I believe a little more in the Horned Frogs than I do in the Cowboys, even if they're on the road. TCU wins, but it will high scoring and close.
Rutgers @ Illinois- The Illini have won 2 straight, and suddenly there is talk of a bowl game. But they better not get ahead of themselves, or the Scarlet Knights could destroy that dream. Illinois wins, but they'll have to pull away in the 2nd half after a sluggish start.
Wofford @ Clemson- The Tigers will maul the Terriers.
Utah @ Washington- This is one of 2 key games that could decide the fate of the Pac 12 playoff hopes. The Utes need to up a huge Pac 12 CG against 1-loss Oregon. But if the Huskies win, that will hurt the Pac 12 by having Oregon (possibly) play a 2 (or more) loss USC or Utah. While I love chaos in college football, I think Utah pulls this out on the road, handing Washington their 4th loss.
Mississippi State @ Arkansas- The loser of this game likely finishes at the bottom of the SEC West. The Razorbacks have lost 16 straight SEC games, and 12 straight at home, but this is their best chance this season to break out of that streak, until they play Missouri to close the season (Mizzou is 0-3 on the road this season). The Bulldogs are also 0-3 on the road, but a loss @ Arkansas would be embarrassing. Tough to pick, but MSU wins.
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech- The Panthers looked poised to take control of the ACC Coastal with a 4-game winning streak, but then lost to Miami at home, the same Miami that the Yellow Jackets beat. GT has been awful except for that one game in Miami. Can they make it 2 in a row? Nope. Pitt wins.
FAU @ WKU- the Hilltoppers have been a surprise team in CUSA, but saw Marshall end its 4-game winning streak last week. The Owls Had a rough 0-2 start, buit have gone 5-1 since. This will be a good game, but FAU wins.
Tulsa @ Tulane- The Green Wave started the season 5-1. but have lost their last 2. The Golden Hurricane have lost 4 straight, but all were to top teams in the AAC, and 3 were relatively close. I'm tempted to go with Tulsa to break through, but Tulane wins at home.
Oregon State @ Arizona- The Wildcats began the season 5-1, then lost 2 straight. The Beavers have won 2 of their last 3, and theoretically have a chance to win the Pac 12 North (don't bet on it...). If this were in Corvallis, I would be tempted to go with OSU, but Arizona wins.
Texas State @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns are tied for the lead in the SBC West, while the Bobcats are not very good. I don't see Louisiana losing this at home. UL wins.
Ole Miss @ Auburn- 2 things the Tigers do well is win at home and win as a favorite. This game ticks off both boxes. The Rebels had an extra week to prepare, but it won't make a difference. AU wins.
Cincinnati @ East Carolina- The Bearcats were off last week while the Pirates were getting pounded by USF. UC has a great chance to be the G5 representative in the NY6 Bowls, but they can't allow a slipup, especially to a team like ECU. Cincy wins.
UAB @ Tennessee- A month ago, I might have pegged the Blazers to win this, and they still may, but the Volunteers have shown a lot of improvement the last few weeks. UT wins.
Northwestern @ Indiana- The Wildcats are enduring a season like they haven't seen since 1999, when they went 3-8 under Randy Walker, but I'm not sure they'll win another game. If that happens, it will be their worst season since 1989, when they went 0-11. They are averaging only slightly more than 10 ppg, and have scored more than 15 only once. Indiana has quietly gone 6-2, but their biggest win is @Nebraska, which is 4-4. Indy wins, and NW endures more misery.
SMU @ Memphis- This game could decide the AAC West, but SMU still has to play @Navy, and Memphis has Cincinnati at home to end the season. The Tigers need this win to have any chance of making the CUSACG, but the Mustangs could lose this and still make it into the CG. This is going to be a great game (I think!). Memphis wins a close one.
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina- The Gamecocks were blown out by Tennessee last week, but the Commodores have been getting blown out all season, especially on the road. SC gets back on the winning track after 2 straight losses.
Virginia @ North Carolina- Every team in the ACC Coastal has either 2 or 3 losses. The winner of this game takes the lead, but each will have at least one tough game to try to maintain that lead. Of course, in the ACC, every game poses a risk for loss. UVA wins a close one (does UNC play any other kind?).
Oregon @ USC- This is the 2nd of 2 key games in the Pac 12, and by the time this one kicks off, the result of the Utah-Washington game will probably be known. The Pac 12 needs the Ducks to win this to preserve their chances for a playoff berth, because a loss probably knocks the Ducks out, as well as most likely eliminating Utah, regardless of the result of that game. The Trojans are still fighting for a berth in the Pac 12 CG, and need this win to maintain their tiebreaker edge over Utah, but a Utah loss gives them a little margin for error. The key to both of these games may be Pac 12 officiating, which has had several egregious errors the last few seasons. Having said all that, I think Oregon continues their momentum and comes out of the LA Coliseum with a win.
Colorado @ UCLA- The Bruins have won 2 straight, but it would be just like them to lose to an inferior Colorado team. The Buffaloes have made a habit of starting strong and then collapsing the last few years, and this year seems to be following that same pattern. UCLA wins.
BYU @ Utah State- The Cougars have had a strange season: surprising wins, and head-scratching losses. It would be just like them to pull this out against the Aggies, but USU wins at home, where they have won their last 10.
Boise State @ San Jose State- The Broncos suffered their 1st loss of 2019 last season to BYU last week, and the Spartans have been a surprise team in the MWC West, but I can't see SJSU pulling off yet another upset. BS wins.
New Mexico @ Nevada- The Wolfpack are nothing special, but the Lobos are just awful. NU wins at home.
Fresno State @ Hawai'i- The Bulldogs have had a strange season, and the Rainbow Warriors have a chance to win the MWC West. I believe they stay on that path. Hawai'i wins.
NC State @ Wake Forest- Both teams were off last week, so they should be well rested. The Wolfpack have lost 2 of their last 3, but the Demon Deacons are having a special season. That continues this week as WF wins at home.
Houston @ UCF- The Cougars have 5 losses, but 3 are by 7 points or less, including by 3 to undefeated SMU last week. The Knights have 2 losses, but are on a 2-game winning streak. UCF wins, but it will be close.
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles have been a hard-luck team the last few years, with most of their losses 1-score games. They started the season 3-1, but have lost 3 of their last 4. The Bulls started 2-4, but are on a 2-game winning streak, with routs of Akron and CMU. All signs point to a Buffalo win, but I'm going with EMU at home.
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan- The Huskies began 2019 1-4, but are 2-1 since. The Chippewas had a 3-game winning streak snapped last week. CMU gets back in the win column.
Nebraska @ Purdue- Neither of these teams are very good, but the Boilermakers lost to Illinois. Cornhuskers win on the road.
Boston College @ Syracuse- I have no idea who is going to win any game between ACC teams, because the underdog wins as often as the favorite. Both of these teams have been disappointments, as both were expected to challenge for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division. Go with the home team- Syracuse wins.
UTSA @ Texas A&M- The Aggies will roll over the Roadrunners.
ODU @ FIU- The Monarchs have been one of the worst teams in the FBS, with no wins against FBS competition. Their average margin of defeat has been by 17.3 points. The Panthers lost last week to end their 3-game winning streak, but they should have no problems with ODU. FIU wins.
Liberty @ Umass- Independents were a combined 0-5 last week, but this week, a winner is guaranteed, thanks to this matchup. The Flames had a 5-game winning streak ended last week @Rutgers, so they should be fired up to gain bowl eligibility this week. The Minutemen lost to UConn last week, which just about tells you everything you need to know. Umass is giving up an average of 50.6 ppg, and have held only 1 team, Akron- which scored a season high 29 points, below 44. Liberty wins.
Akron @ Bowling Green- The Zips are putrid on offense, averaging 1p.75 ppg, and they've been outscored 96-3 in their last 3 games, all conference losses. The Falcons have been shut out twice, and are averaging only 15.4 ppg. All evidence screams a close, low scoring game, so it'll probably be a shootout. BG wins.
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame- The Hokies have won 3 straight games, and had an off week last week. The Fighting Irish got blown out by Michigan. With their playoff hopes destroyed, motivation/morale for the Irish may be low. This is a classic case of a "trap" game for ND, but I think they win a close game.
Troy @ Coastal Carolina- The Trojans have taken a step back this year, and have lost 3 of their last 4. The Chanticleers have lost 3 straight, but had an off week last week. This may be close, but Troy wins on the road.
Georgia vs. Florida (Jacksonville)- The Dawgs and Gators had the week off to prepare, and there will probably be a trick play or 2 on both sides, but this game always comes down to who can run the ball and who can control the line of scrimmage. I have had a growing feeling over the last few weeks that this just may be Florida's year, but that's starting to change into cautious optimism for the Dawgs to win. I was fully prepared to pick the Gators, but UGA wins a close one.
Kansas State @ Kansas- Both teams are coming off of upset wins last week, so it could be the team that stays the most focused in preparation wins this, but the Wildcats have been the better team all season, and 1 win by the Jayhawks doesn't negate a 4-game losing streak. KSU wins.
Arkansas State @ ULM- Both of these teams are still in the hunt for the SBC West crown, and both teams have lost 2 of 3. Even though the Warhawks are at home, I'm going with the Red Wolves.
Marshall @ Rice- The Thundering Herd are on a 3-game winning streak, and I don't see the Owls ending that streak. Marshall wins.
UTEP @ North Texas- The Miners only have 1 win, and that was by 2 over an FCS opponent. Their closest loss was by 10 to fellow CUSA member UTSA. The Mean Green beat that same UTSA team by 42. While they've lost 3 of their last 4, NT is still better than UTEP. NT wins.
Army @ Air Force- The Black Knights have had a disappointing season so far, but a victory over the Falcons would make everything much better. Air Force has been a surprise at 6-2 with their only losses on the road at Boise St and Navy. AF wins, but Army will put up a fight.
Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte- The 49ers upset North Texas last week, but that was their 1st victory since week 3. The Blue Raiders routed FIU, and even though they are 0-4 on the road this year, MT wins.
UNLV @ Colorado State- The Rams surprised nearly everyone by defeating Fresno St on the road, and have a (very) outside shot at a bowl game. The Rebels have a big win over Vandy, but that is their only FBS win this season. CSU wins.
Miami @ FSU- It was assumed that when the Hurricanes joined the ACC, they would dominate. That hasn't happened to date, and the Seminoles haven't had a great season since 2014. Like every other ACC game not involving Clemson, this is tough to call, so I'm going with FSU to win at home.
TCU @ Oklahoma State- Both of these teams had big wins last week as underdogs, and the question is if either is a legitimate challenger for the top half of the Big 12. Both have similar resumes, but I believe a little more in the Horned Frogs than I do in the Cowboys, even if they're on the road. TCU wins, but it will high scoring and close.
Rutgers @ Illinois- The Illini have won 2 straight, and suddenly there is talk of a bowl game. But they better not get ahead of themselves, or the Scarlet Knights could destroy that dream. Illinois wins, but they'll have to pull away in the 2nd half after a sluggish start.
Wofford @ Clemson- The Tigers will maul the Terriers.
Utah @ Washington- This is one of 2 key games that could decide the fate of the Pac 12 playoff hopes. The Utes need to up a huge Pac 12 CG against 1-loss Oregon. But if the Huskies win, that will hurt the Pac 12 by having Oregon (possibly) play a 2 (or more) loss USC or Utah. While I love chaos in college football, I think Utah pulls this out on the road, handing Washington their 4th loss.
Mississippi State @ Arkansas- The loser of this game likely finishes at the bottom of the SEC West. The Razorbacks have lost 16 straight SEC games, and 12 straight at home, but this is their best chance this season to break out of that streak, until they play Missouri to close the season (Mizzou is 0-3 on the road this season). The Bulldogs are also 0-3 on the road, but a loss @ Arkansas would be embarrassing. Tough to pick, but MSU wins.
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech- The Panthers looked poised to take control of the ACC Coastal with a 4-game winning streak, but then lost to Miami at home, the same Miami that the Yellow Jackets beat. GT has been awful except for that one game in Miami. Can they make it 2 in a row? Nope. Pitt wins.
FAU @ WKU- the Hilltoppers have been a surprise team in CUSA, but saw Marshall end its 4-game winning streak last week. The Owls Had a rough 0-2 start, buit have gone 5-1 since. This will be a good game, but FAU wins.
Tulsa @ Tulane- The Green Wave started the season 5-1. but have lost their last 2. The Golden Hurricane have lost 4 straight, but all were to top teams in the AAC, and 3 were relatively close. I'm tempted to go with Tulsa to break through, but Tulane wins at home.
Oregon State @ Arizona- The Wildcats began the season 5-1, then lost 2 straight. The Beavers have won 2 of their last 3, and theoretically have a chance to win the Pac 12 North (don't bet on it...). If this were in Corvallis, I would be tempted to go with OSU, but Arizona wins.
Texas State @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns are tied for the lead in the SBC West, while the Bobcats are not very good. I don't see Louisiana losing this at home. UL wins.
Ole Miss @ Auburn- 2 things the Tigers do well is win at home and win as a favorite. This game ticks off both boxes. The Rebels had an extra week to prepare, but it won't make a difference. AU wins.
Cincinnati @ East Carolina- The Bearcats were off last week while the Pirates were getting pounded by USF. UC has a great chance to be the G5 representative in the NY6 Bowls, but they can't allow a slipup, especially to a team like ECU. Cincy wins.
UAB @ Tennessee- A month ago, I might have pegged the Blazers to win this, and they still may, but the Volunteers have shown a lot of improvement the last few weeks. UT wins.
Northwestern @ Indiana- The Wildcats are enduring a season like they haven't seen since 1999, when they went 3-8 under Randy Walker, but I'm not sure they'll win another game. If that happens, it will be their worst season since 1989, when they went 0-11. They are averaging only slightly more than 10 ppg, and have scored more than 15 only once. Indiana has quietly gone 6-2, but their biggest win is @Nebraska, which is 4-4. Indy wins, and NW endures more misery.
SMU @ Memphis- This game could decide the AAC West, but SMU still has to play @Navy, and Memphis has Cincinnati at home to end the season. The Tigers need this win to have any chance of making the CUSACG, but the Mustangs could lose this and still make it into the CG. This is going to be a great game (I think!). Memphis wins a close one.
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina- The Gamecocks were blown out by Tennessee last week, but the Commodores have been getting blown out all season, especially on the road. SC gets back on the winning track after 2 straight losses.
Virginia @ North Carolina- Every team in the ACC Coastal has either 2 or 3 losses. The winner of this game takes the lead, but each will have at least one tough game to try to maintain that lead. Of course, in the ACC, every game poses a risk for loss. UVA wins a close one (does UNC play any other kind?).
Oregon @ USC- This is the 2nd of 2 key games in the Pac 12, and by the time this one kicks off, the result of the Utah-Washington game will probably be known. The Pac 12 needs the Ducks to win this to preserve their chances for a playoff berth, because a loss probably knocks the Ducks out, as well as most likely eliminating Utah, regardless of the result of that game. The Trojans are still fighting for a berth in the Pac 12 CG, and need this win to maintain their tiebreaker edge over Utah, but a Utah loss gives them a little margin for error. The key to both of these games may be Pac 12 officiating, which has had several egregious errors the last few seasons. Having said all that, I think Oregon continues their momentum and comes out of the LA Coliseum with a win.
Colorado @ UCLA- The Bruins have won 2 straight, but it would be just like them to lose to an inferior Colorado team. The Buffaloes have made a habit of starting strong and then collapsing the last few years, and this year seems to be following that same pattern. UCLA wins.
BYU @ Utah State- The Cougars have had a strange season: surprising wins, and head-scratching losses. It would be just like them to pull this out against the Aggies, but USU wins at home, where they have won their last 10.
Boise State @ San Jose State- The Broncos suffered their 1st loss of 2019 last season to BYU last week, and the Spartans have been a surprise team in the MWC West, but I can't see SJSU pulling off yet another upset. BS wins.
New Mexico @ Nevada- The Wolfpack are nothing special, but the Lobos are just awful. NU wins at home.
Fresno State @ Hawai'i- The Bulldogs have had a strange season, and the Rainbow Warriors have a chance to win the MWC West. I believe they stay on that path. Hawai'i wins.
That's all for now! Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes, where I'll review all the results and their implications. Also, feel free to follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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