Paul's Picks Week 9- 10/24/19

Welcome back!

Last week was back to normal, as I went 49-13 for a .790 win percentage!  Overall, I am 396-107, which is still 78.7%.  Still not too bad, but I'm still below 80%, and I'm afraid I'll probably stay there for the rest of the season.  My goal now is to stay above 75%! 

There are a lot of interesting games this week as most teams have finished their non-conference slate, but there are a few still remaining.  There is only no games against an FCS program this week.

I will be out of town this weekend, so I will be keeping up with scores by phone, and occasionally seeing part of a game here and there.

On to the predictions!

Thursday, October 17

SMU @ Houston- The Mustangs are one of the surprise teams in all of CFB, but this is a dangerous game playing on the road against the Cougars.  SMU stays undefeated, but it won't be easy.  SMU wins.

Friday, October 18

USC @ Colorado- The Buffaloes are doing their annual 2nd-half collapse after a strong start, as they have lost 3 straight after starting the season 3-1.  The Trojans have played well at times, beating Stanford, Utah, and Arizona, but are also capable of laying eggs, as they did against BYU.  USC still has a chance to win the Pac 12 South, so I think they get it done on the road.  USC wins.

Saturday, October 19

Wisconsin @ Ohio State-  The Buckeyes have rolled through their schedule, winning every game by at least 23 points.  The Badgers were upset by Illinois last week, and the question is whether they will rebound to put up a fight.  OSU is the better team, but UW will put up a heck of a fight.  OSU wins.

Oklahoma @ Kansas State- The Sooners have only had one win closer than 18 points (34-27 over Texas), and their defense is only giving up 19.4 ppg.  The Wildcats are averaging less than 17 ppg in Big 12 play, so this will be a mismatch.  OU wins big.

Iowa @ Northwestern- The Wildcats have been truly awful, just a year after winning the Big Ten West; their only win is against UNLV.  The Hawkeyes are 5-2, and still have a chance at the Big Ten West title, but must win this game.  Iowa wins.

Appalachian State @ South Alabama- The Mountaineers are the last remaining undefeated team in the SBC.  The Jaguars are at the bottom of the SBC.  ASU wins.

Miami @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers have won 4 straight and 5 out of 6, and are on a roll.  The Hurricanes are going in the opposite direction, having lost 2 of their last 3, the last against GT.  Pitt wins.

San Jose State @ Army- It appears that we were all wrong on the strength of the Black Knights, but they still have time to turn their season around.  The Spartans may have the same record as Army, but they aren't on the same level.  Army wins, as the caissons go rolling along.

Mississippi State @ Texas A&M- I'm not convinced either of these teams are any good, but the Aggies are at home, and the Bulldogs lost to Kentucky last week..  TAMU wins.

Illinois @ Purdue- The Illini had a huge win over Wisconsin, but I'm not convinced that it was anything other than an aberration.  The Boilermakers are only 2-5, but most of the tougher games are behind them.  Purdue wins.

Liberty @ Rutgers- The Flames have the better record, but the Scarlet Knights are- ostensibly- a P5 team.  And no P5 team should ever lose to Liberty.  Rutgers gets win #2.

Bowling Green @ Western Michigan- The Falcons looked like they might be a force when they upset Toledo 2 weeks ago, but then they lost to CMU and Toledo was routed by Ball St.  The Broncos have alternated wins with losses, and this is a win week.  WMU wins.

Southern Miss @ Rice- The Owls are 1 of only 3 winless teams left.  The Eagles are still in the CUSA West race.  USM wins.

Nevada @ Wyoming- The Wolfpack are quietly having a decent season, but all of their wins are against teams with losing records.  The Cowboys are still in the MWC Mountain race, and have at least beaten a team- a P5 one at that- that has a winning record.  Wyoming wins at home.

Ohio @ Ball State- The Cardinals have been a huge surprise in the MAC, as they are the only team in the MAC without a conference loss.  The Bobcats have been a huge disappointment, but have won 2 of the last 3.  I'm going with the home team.  Ball St wins.

WKU @ Marshall- The Hilltoppers are another surprise team, as they are 4-0 in CUSA, including wins over FIU and UAB.  The Thundering Herd had a midseason slump, but have won 2 games since.  I'm going with Marshall at home, in a mild upset.

New Mexico State @ Georgia Southern- The Aggies are one of the worst teams in FBS.  The Eagles haven't been great this year, but they're still better than NMSU.  GSU wins.

Auburn @ LSU- This is one of the biggest games of the weekend, as it matches 2 top ten teams.  The Bayou Bengals have won every game by at least 14 points, while the Tigers/Plainsmen/War Eagles have a loss to the Same Florida team LSU beat.  LSU wins.

Penn State @ Michigan State- This is the classic letdown game for the Nittany Lions, as this follows their big win over Michigan, is on the road, and comes before their off week and a big game at currently undefeated Minnesota.  The Spartans are capable of pulling the upset, especially if they can find an offense, but PSU will be ready.  Penn St wins.

Texas @ TCU- The Longhorns almost lost to Kansas last week, and their defense is a mess, but their offense will be enough to get past the Horned Frogs.  UT wins on the road.

Maryland @ Minnesota- This is the last game for the Golden Gophers before they host currently undefeated Penn St on Nov 9.  The Terrapins started the season like a house afire, but have lost 4 of their last 5, their only win over Rutgers.  Minnesota is so close to a big game they can taste it.  As long as they don't spit the bit, they'll roll into the PSU game undefeated.  Minny wins.

Oklahoma State @ Iowa State- The Cyclones definitely look like a team that will finish near the top of the Big 12, while the Cowboys look like they will finish in the middle or near the bottom.  ISU wins.

UConn @ UMass- This game is between 2 of the worst teams in FBS.  Might as well flip a coin.  UMass is at home, so go with the Minutemen to eke by the Huskies.

North Texas @ Charlotte- The Mean Green probably won't match their 9 wins from last year, but they can certainly beat the 49ers.  NT wins.

FIU @ Middle Tennessee- The Panthers are on a 3 game winning streak, and have won 4 of their last 5.  the Blue Raiders have lost 2 straight, and 4 of 5.  MT has played an tougher schedule, but FIU wins.

FAU @ ODU- The Owls loss last week ended a 4-game winning streak, but the Monarchs have lost 6 straight.  FAU wins in a rout.

Syracuse @ FSU- The Orange were thought to be one of the better teams in the ACC, but are 0-3 in the conference.  The Seminoles at least have a conference win, and are at home.  FSU wins.

Virginia @ Louisville- The Cardinals have played well at times, including a win over previously undefeated Wake Forest 2 weeks ago, but are still not where they need or want to be.  The Cavaliers had a brief 2-game losing streak, but are back on track after a rout of Duke.  Everyone is counting the Wahoos out in the ACC Coastal, but I think they win the division.  UVA wins.

Arizona @ Stanford- Both of these teams have been wildly inconsistent.  Although the Cardinal have won their last 2, and the Wildcats have lost 2 straight, I think UA pulls out a close one.

Indiana @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers are yet to beat a team with a winning record, but the Hoosiers only win against a team with a winning record was over Ball St by 10, so not much can be divined there.  This is in Lincoln, and NU is coming off a bye, but my gut says IU wins.

Tulane @ Navy- Lots of people were excited when the Green Wave won 4 straight, but then they got routed by Memphis.  the Midshipmen have only 1 loss, to that very same Memphis team, but it was by only 11 points, not 30.  Navy wins.

Central Michigan @ Buffalo- The Chippewas are another surprise MAC team, and they've won 3 straight.  The Bulls have an upset win over Temple to their name, but not much else.  CMU wins.

Eastern Michigan @ Toledo-  The Rockets have lost 2 straight MAC games, and the latter was in a rout.  The Eagles righted the ship, after 2 straight losses, with a win over WMU.  All indications pint to an EMU win, but this is exactly the kind of game they lose.  Toledo wins.

Miami @ Kent State- These teams come in with identical overall and conference records.  There really isn't much to distinguish these teams from each other.  In these type of situations, I usually go with the home team, but the Redhawks have won 2 of their last 3 while the Golden Flashes have lost 2 of 3.  Miami wins.

Akron @ Northern Illinois- The Huskies have not been good this year, but the Zips have been awful.  NIU wins.

USF @ East Carolina- This is another of those toss-the-coin games, and either the Pirates or the Bulls could win.  In this case, I am going with the home team.  ECU wins.

Hawai'i @ New Mexico- The Rainbow Warriors have cooled a bit with 2 straight losses after a 4-1 start, but those losses were against 2 of the top teams in the MWC.  The Lobos have lost 4 straight and 5 of 6.  UH wins.

Duke @ North Carolina- The Blue Devils just got routed by UVA, and have lost 2 of 3.  The Tar Heels have lost 4 of 5 after 2 close wins.  Call it a hunch, if you want, but UNC pulls out another close one.

South Carolina @ Tennessee- I'm very tempted to go with the Volunteers at home, as they have played better the last 3 games, even though 2 were losses, but the Gamecocks have won 2 of their last 3, including an upset win over a Georgia team that beat UT 43-14.  SC wins.

Arkansas @ Alabama- Tua is hurt, but I'm almost sure I could QB the Crimson Tide to a win over the Razorbacks.  Bama wins big.

Texas Tech @ Kansas- The Jayhawks have actually showed a pulse this year, and came within a blocked XP of upsetting Texas last week.  But this is the kind of game the Red Raiders usually win, even though they've lost 4 of their last 5.  TT wins.

UCF @ Temple- The Owls looked like a legitimate challenge to the top of the AAC East, but got routed by SMU last week.  The Knights have lost twice this year, after going 2 straight years without a regular season loss.  This will be close, but UCF wins.

Memphis @ Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane were the darlings of the media when they started the season 2-2, but they've since lost 3 straight.  The Tigers' only blemish to their record is a 2-point controversial loss to Temple.  Memphis wins in a rout.

Texas State @ Arkansas State- The Red Wolves have lost 2 straight in the midst of myriad injuries.  the Bobcats have won 2 of 3, and are coming off a bye.  ASU wins at home, but it may be close.

Troy @ Georgia State- The Trojans have been surprisingly beatable this year, and likely won't match last year's 10 wins.  The Panthers started 2-0, then lost 2, but have won their last 3, and seem to be hitting their stride.  This was a tough one to pick, but I'm going with GSU at home.

Boston College @ Clemson- The Tigers have had their 1 scare and survived.  The Eagles have no chance.  Clemson wins.

Notre Dame @ Michigan- All logic screams at me to pick the Fighting Irish, but the Wolverines have won 11 straight, and 24 of their last 26, at home.  UM wins.

Arizona State @ UCLA- The Bruins are certainly capable of winning this, but the Sun Devils win a close one, simply because they don't rout anyone.

Colorado State @ Fresno State- The Rams have really struggled this year, but the Bulldogs haven't really impressed me, either.  FS wins at home.

Missouri @ Kentucky-  I've been burned by picking the Wildcats several times this year, but the Tigers are 0-2 on the road this year.  UK wins.  But don't quote me on that!

LA Tech @ UTEP- The Bulldogs are 6-1, but haven't played anyone.  The Miners qualify as no one.  LT wins in a rout.

California @ Utah- The Golden Bears started 4-0, but have gone 0-3 since.  The Utes have routed everyone, with the exception of their lone loss to USC.  Utah rolls.

Utah State @ Air Force- This is one of those under-the-radar games that will probably be outstanding.  These teams are basically fighting for 2nd place n the MWC Mountain behind Boise St.  This is another tough game to pick.  Go with the home Falcons over the visiting Aggies.

Washington State @ Oregon- Remember when the Cougars were undefeated and the darlings of the Pac 12? yeah, me neither.  The Ducks are the best chance the Pac 12 has of getting into the playoff, so everyone out west is rooting for them to win.  Well, almost everyone.  OU wins.

San Diego State @ UNLV- The Aztecs should have no problems with the Rebels.  SDSU wins.

That's all for now!  Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes, where I'll review all the results and their implications.  Also, feel free to follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!