Paul's Picks Week 14- 11/28/19
Welcome back!
Last week was pretty bad, as I went 45-19 for a .703 win percentage. Overall, I am 592-181, which is still 76.6%. Still not too bad. My goal now is to stay above 75%!
It's rivalry week! And, sadly, the last week of the regular season, as the conference championship games (and Army-Navy) are all that's left on the schedule until bowl season starts. There are no games against FCS programs this week!
NOTE: See Tuesday's Power Rankings for my picks for the Tuesday games.
On to the predictions!
Thursday, November 28
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State- The Egg Bowls is one of the most contentious rivalries in the South. The Rebels lead the all-time series 62-45-6, and each team has vacated/forfeited 2 additional wins due to NCAA penalties. The Bulldogs have won 6 of the last 8, and will probably make it 7 of 9, but the Rebels would like nothing better than to keep MSU from attaining bowl eligibility. The winner will earn 5th place in the SEC West with the loser relegated to 6th. MSU wins.
Friday, November 29
Texas Tech @ Texas- Both teams have had disappointing seasons, but this has been a lopsided series, as the Longhorns lead 51-17. However, the Red Raiders have won 2 of the last 4, both in Austin, and the largest margin of victory in those 4 games has been 8 points. This will be close, but Texas wins.
Virginia Tech @ Virginia- The Commonwealth Cup was a close rivalry, until the Hokies reeled off 15 straight victories in the last 15 years. The Cavaliers now trail 58-37-5. 6 of the last 7 games have been decided by 10 points or less, so the Cavs have been close. The winner of this game claims the ACC Coastal division, and the right to get stomped by Clemson in the ACCCG next week. Over the last 6 years, 6 different teams have won the Coastal. UVA will make it 7 out of 7. Cavs win.
Bowling Green @ Buffalo- The Bulls have had an up-and-down season, but the Falcons have mostly been down. Buffalo has won 4 of their last 5 while BG has lost 4 of 5. Buffalo wins.
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan- Both teams are on modest 2-game winning streaks. The Eagles have had 10 days to prepare while the Golden Flashes have had only 6. However, KS is fighting for a bowl bid- EMU has already clinched bowl eligibility. EMU wins at home.
Miami, Oh @ Ball State- The Redhawks have won 5 straight and 6 of 7 (only loss to West division leader WMU) while the Cardinals are moving in the opposite direction- 4 straight losses. Miami has had 2 extra days to prepare and look to roll into the MACCG on a roll. Miami wins.
Toledo @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas can win the MAC West with a win and a WMU loss. CMU comes in on a roll, having won 5 of 6, and have had 2 byes the last 2 weeks, but the Rockets have lost 2 straight, and watched a season of promise go South. CMU wins.
Iowa @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers need this win to reach bowl eligibility and perhaps salvage their season, but the Hawkeyes have one of the best defenses in the nation, holding 10 opponents to 20 points or less. UN has struggled at times on offense, going through a 3-game stretch in midseason where they only scored 27 points, but broke out in a big way against Maryland last week, scoring 54 points. Then again, that was Maryland. Iowa wins, keeping UN home for the holidays.
Missouri @ Arkansas- The Razorbacks have been just awful this year, going winless in the SEC and getting routed by a CUSA team, WKU. The Tigers have lost 5 straight, and have just learned that their appeal to play in a bowl game has been denied. UM wins big.
Cincinnati @ Memphis- This is a huge game in the AAC. The Bearcats have already clinched the East, but the Tigers need a win- or a Navy loss @Houston- to clinch the West. UC has 4 conference wins by 3 points or less, while UM has won 6 games by at least 19 points. With this game being in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, I'm picking the Tigers to win, setting up a rematch one week later.
Boise State @ Colorado State- The Broncos are fighting for a NY6 berth, but the Rams are playing for pride only. This won't be close. BS wins in a rout.
Washington State @ Washington- This has been a lopsided series, as the Huskies lead the Apple Cup 73-32-6, and has won the last 6, and 9 out of 10. In fact, Wazzu's last 2 wins have come in OT, but all of their losses in the last 10 years have been by at least 10 points. The Cougars have an identical record as the Huskies, but UW is the better team (I think...). UW wins.
West Virginia @ TCU- The Horned Frogs need this win to obtain a bowl bid, but they limp into this game having lost 3 of their last 4. The Mountaineers, however, are limping even worse, losing 6 of 7. TCU wins.
Arkansas State @ South Alabama- The Red Wolves could still tie for the Sun Belt West title, but will lose any tiebreaker to Louisiana. The Jaguars have already clinched the cellar of the SBC West. ASU wins.
Appalachian State @ Troy- The Trojans have had a rough season, but an upset here would be sweet, as well as getting them bowl eligibility. The Mountaineers have already clinched their 4th double-digit win season in the last 5 years (they won only 9 in 2017), and a win here would give them a 2nd straight 11-win season, and 3rd in the last 5 years. pretty great stretch! ASU wins big.
USF @ UCF- The "War on I-4" has only been played 10 times, with USF leading 6-4, but it had grown into an intense rivalry. The Bulls won the first 4 games in the series, but the Knights have won the last 2, last year in a convincing fashion. USF will finish with their 1st losing record since 2014, but would like nothing better than to knock off the Knights and end their 3-game 2019 losing streak. The Knights will clinch 2nd place in the AAC with a win. UCF wins.
Virginia Tech @ Virginia- The Commonwealth Cup was a close rivalry, until the Hokies reeled off 15 straight victories in the last 15 years. The Cavaliers now trail 58-37-5. 6 of the last 7 games have been decided by 10 points or less, so the Cavs have been close. The winner of this game claims the ACC Coastal division, and the right to get stomped by Clemson in the ACCCG next week. Over the last 6 years, 6 different teams have won the Coastal. UVA will make it 7 out of 7. Cavs win.
Bowling Green @ Buffalo- The Bulls have had an up-and-down season, but the Falcons have mostly been down. Buffalo has won 4 of their last 5 while BG has lost 4 of 5. Buffalo wins.
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan- Both teams are on modest 2-game winning streaks. The Eagles have had 10 days to prepare while the Golden Flashes have had only 6. However, KS is fighting for a bowl bid- EMU has already clinched bowl eligibility. EMU wins at home.
Miami, Oh @ Ball State- The Redhawks have won 5 straight and 6 of 7 (only loss to West division leader WMU) while the Cardinals are moving in the opposite direction- 4 straight losses. Miami has had 2 extra days to prepare and look to roll into the MACCG on a roll. Miami wins.
Toledo @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas can win the MAC West with a win and a WMU loss. CMU comes in on a roll, having won 5 of 6, and have had 2 byes the last 2 weeks, but the Rockets have lost 2 straight, and watched a season of promise go South. CMU wins.
Iowa @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers need this win to reach bowl eligibility and perhaps salvage their season, but the Hawkeyes have one of the best defenses in the nation, holding 10 opponents to 20 points or less. UN has struggled at times on offense, going through a 3-game stretch in midseason where they only scored 27 points, but broke out in a big way against Maryland last week, scoring 54 points. Then again, that was Maryland. Iowa wins, keeping UN home for the holidays.
Missouri @ Arkansas- The Razorbacks have been just awful this year, going winless in the SEC and getting routed by a CUSA team, WKU. The Tigers have lost 5 straight, and have just learned that their appeal to play in a bowl game has been denied. UM wins big.
Cincinnati @ Memphis- This is a huge game in the AAC. The Bearcats have already clinched the East, but the Tigers need a win- or a Navy loss @Houston- to clinch the West. UC has 4 conference wins by 3 points or less, while UM has won 6 games by at least 19 points. With this game being in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, I'm picking the Tigers to win, setting up a rematch one week later.
Boise State @ Colorado State- The Broncos are fighting for a NY6 berth, but the Rams are playing for pride only. This won't be close. BS wins in a rout.
Washington State @ Washington- This has been a lopsided series, as the Huskies lead the Apple Cup 73-32-6, and has won the last 6, and 9 out of 10. In fact, Wazzu's last 2 wins have come in OT, but all of their losses in the last 10 years have been by at least 10 points. The Cougars have an identical record as the Huskies, but UW is the better team (I think...). UW wins.
West Virginia @ TCU- The Horned Frogs need this win to obtain a bowl bid, but they limp into this game having lost 3 of their last 4. The Mountaineers, however, are limping even worse, losing 6 of 7. TCU wins.
Arkansas State @ South Alabama- The Red Wolves could still tie for the Sun Belt West title, but will lose any tiebreaker to Louisiana. The Jaguars have already clinched the cellar of the SBC West. ASU wins.
Appalachian State @ Troy- The Trojans have had a rough season, but an upset here would be sweet, as well as getting them bowl eligibility. The Mountaineers have already clinched their 4th double-digit win season in the last 5 years (they won only 9 in 2017), and a win here would give them a 2nd straight 11-win season, and 3rd in the last 5 years. pretty great stretch! ASU wins big.
USF @ UCF- The "War on I-4" has only been played 10 times, with USF leading 6-4, but it had grown into an intense rivalry. The Bulls won the first 4 games in the series, but the Knights have won the last 2, last year in a convincing fashion. USF will finish with their 1st losing record since 2014, but would like nothing better than to knock off the Knights and end their 3-game 2019 losing streak. The Knights will clinch 2nd place in the AAC with a win. UCF wins.
Saturday, November 30
Ohio State @ Michigan- The Wolverines lead the all-time series 58-50-6, but the Buckeyes have won 7 straight and 13 of the last 15 (1 win was vacated) and 15 of the last 18 to dominate the series since 2001. OSU is perhaps the best team in the nation, and I'm not sure UM can slow them down, or score enough on the Buckeye defense. OSU wins, pulling away in the 2nd half.
Clemson @ South Carolina- The Tigers lead the series 70-42-4, and have won the last 5, but only after the Gamecocks won 5 in a row before that. SC is a terrible team (how did they ever beat Georgia?), and Clemson is one of the best, and defending national champions, to boot. This should be a blow out, but SC will keep it close- for about 5 minutes. Clemson wins big.
Georgia @ Georgia Tech- The Dawgs lead "Clean, Old Fashioned Hate" 67-41-5, but have really dominated the series of late, winning 8 of the last 10, 15 of 16, and 40 of the last 54. The Yellow Jackets are rebuilding their team after the end of the Paul Johnson era, and would like nothing better than to knock the Dawgs out of the playoff picture. UGA needs to get their offense untracked, and this is the perfect opportunity, as GT has allowed over 30 points 5 times this year. Dawgs win. Wreck Tech!
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina- Neither of these teams are going bowling, and this is mostly a meaningless game, as each is locked into their position in their division, and no outcome can change that. The Chanticleers are at home, so they'll edge the Bobcats.
Tulsa @ East Carolina- This is another game with no real meaningful outcomes. The Golden Hurricane have had a couple of good wins (Wyoming, YCF), and some close losses to good teams (SMU-2OT, Cincy, Memphis). The Pirates have beaten no one of significance, though they played Cincy and SMU close. Tough call, ut Tulsa wins.
FIU @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd now has to hope for some help to win the CUSA East, due to their loss last week to Charlotte, their 2nd real head-scratching loss (Middle Tenn was the other one). If they can win this, and FAU lose to Southern Miss, Marshall wins the division. The Panthers are coming off a huge upset of Miami, but will they carry that momentum into this game, or will they rest on their laurels a bit? This is a good matchup, but Marshall wins at home.
Louisville @ Kentucky- The Wildcats lead the series for the Governor's Cup 16-15, but the Cardinals have won 6 of the last 8 (Kentucky has won 2 of the last 3). This is another good matchup, as each team has won 3 of their last 4 games. I'm going with the home team. Kentucky gets their 2nd straight win in the series, and their 3rd in the last 4 games.
Northwestern @ Illinois- The Illini lead this series 55-52-5, but the Wildcats have won the last 4 and 6 of the last 7. However, Northwestern has really struggled this year while Illinois has had somewhat of a breakthrough season. A win here for the Illini would give them a chance to double last year's win total, as long as they win the bowl also. The Wildcats are hoping not to go winless in the Big Ten. Illinois takes home the Land of Lincoln Trophy with the win.
Indiana @ Purdue- Purdue leads this series for the Old Oaken Bucket 74-41-6, and have won 2 straight after the Hoosiers won 4 straight from 2013-2016. The Boilermakers took a step back this year after winning 6 in 2018, but the Hoosiers have a chance at 9 wins if they can win this and a bowl game. Indiana wins on the road.
Wake Forest @ Syracuse- The Demon Deacons have had a good year, already exceeding last year's 7 wins, but a victory here would give them a chance at 10 if they win their bowl. The Orange have been a huge disappointment after last year's 10 wins, and need a victory here to get to just half of that total. WF wins.
Middle Tennessee @ WKU- The Blue Raiders have had an odd season, beating Marshall and FIU, but losing to the likes of Rice and Charlotte. The Hilltoppers have already more than doubled last year's win total, and could actually triple it with a win here and in a bowl. WKU wins at home.
Charlotte @ ODU- The 49ers qualified for their 1st bowl game ever last week, and should still be riding that high. The Monarchs have yet to beat an FBS opponent, and this is their last chance. ODU will keep this close, but Charlotte pulls it out in the end.
Wyoming @ Air Force- The Cowboys have come close to getting a signature conference win, losing by a combined 12 points to SDSU, Boise St, and Utah St, and this is their last real chance. The Falcons have been fantastic all year long, losing only to Boise St and Navy, both on the road. This will be a good game! AF wins a close one.
New Mexico State @ Liberty- The Aggies are on a 2-game winning streak, breaking a string of 11 straight losses. The Flames have 6 wins but need a 7th to qualify for their 1st bowl ever in their 1st year of eligibility. These teams mete Oct 5 in Las Cruces, with Liberty winning by 7. Don't be surprised if NMSU wins, but I'm going with Liberty at home.
Rice @ UTEP- Like NMSU, the Owls have won their last 2 games, on the heels of losing 9 straight to start the season. The Miners won their opener, but it was only by 2 points over an FCS team. UTEP has only had 1 loss as close as 7 points, so I'm going with the "hot" (relative term...) team. Rice wins.
UNLV @ Nevada- The Fremont Cannon is awarded to the winner of this rivalry game, and the Wolfpack lead 27-17, and have won 11 of the last 14. However, The Rebels won last year and have won 3 of the last 6, but have not won 2 in a row since winning 5 straight from 200-2004. The Rebels have opted to replace HC Tony Sanchez. Both teams are striving to match last year's win total. Nevada wins.
Alabama @ Auburn- The Iron Bowl was played exclusively in Birmingham from 1904 to 1988 (the teams didn't meet between 1907 and 1948). The Crimson Tide leads the all-time series 46-36-1, and has won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 11. The Tigers have won 5 of the last 8 home games in this series. I'm going out on a limb and picking Auburn to win over Alabama and their backup QB.
Rutgers @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions will crush the Scarlet Knights.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota- The battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe is tied at 60-60-8, and I would wager that no game in the history of this series has been bigger. The winner of this game wins the Big Ten West, and the right to face Ohio St in the Big Ten CG next week. If the Golden Gophers win, that CG will probably be for a spot in the playoff. If the Badgers win, they would be fighting for the Rose Bowl slot. This should be a great game! Minnesota wins.
Baylor @ Kansas- The Bears have already clinched a spot in the Big 12 CG, and should have no problems with the Jayhawks. Baylor wins.
UConn @ Temple- This will be the last game for the Huskies as a member of the AAC. The Owls will roll over UConn.
Southern Miss @ FAU- The Owls need a win or a Marshall loss to clinch the CUSA East title. The Golden Eagles need a win to have a chance to win the CUSA West crown (unless the other 2 contenders both lose). High stakes all around! FAU has played well all year and is on a 4-game winning streak. FAU wins.
UTSA @ La Tech- The Bulldogs can still win the CUSA West division, but need to win this game to enhance their chances. The Roadrunners are already slotted into 4th or 5th place. LT wins.
Boston College @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers have lost 2 of their last 4, but the Eagles have lost 3 of 4. Pitt wins.
Miami, Fl @ Duke- The Hurricanes laid an egg last week in an upset loss to FIU, but the Blue Devils have laid an egg for 5 straight weeks. Miami wins.
Maryland @ Michigan State- The Spartans can attain a bowl bid by defeating the Terrapins, and I can't really think of an easier way to get a bowl invitation. MSU wins.
Oregon State @ Oregon- Both of these teams had a tough loss last week, costing the Beavers a possible bowl game and the Ducks a possible playoff berth. OSU can still get to a bowl, but they'll have to beat an angry Oregon squad. Or maybe a dispirited one. The Ducks lead the "Civil War" 65-47-10, and have won the last 2 and 10 of 11. OSU will give them a game, but Oregon wins.
Notre Dame @ Stanford- Most years, this is a good game. This is not one of those years. The Fighting Irish will rout the Cardinal.
Tulane @ SMU- The Mustangs took a tough loss to Navy last week to fall out of the AAC West title chase. The Green Wave have been good, but not great. This could lead to a close game, and perhaps an upset, but SMU wins at home.
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee- The Volunteers lead this series 75-33-5, but the Commodores have won 3 straight and 5 of the last 7. The Vols have dominated this series since 1928, and the current 3-game win streak for the 'Dores is the longest since they won 6 straight from 1920-1926 (they didn't play in 1924). Tennessee is on a 4-game winning streak while Vandy just broke a 3-game losing streak. UT wins.
UAB @ North Texas- The Blazers are one of 3 teams atop CUSA West, and need to win to stay in contention. The Mean Green are locked into 4th or 5th place. UAB wins.
Utah State @ New Mexico- The Lobos have parted ways with HC Bob Davie as they have not won more than 3 games since 2016, and can only get to 3 if they win this one. In addition, if they don't win this game, they will be winless in conference play for the 1st time since 1989, when they were a member of the WAC. The Aggies are coming off a disappointing loss to Boise St last week, and a win would get them to 7 wins, which is good, but not as good as last year's 11-2 record. USU wins.
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern- This is a relatively new series, as the Panthers have only been playing football for a few years. The Eagles lead the series 3-2, but have never beaten Ga State in Statesboro, where this game will be held. The winner of this game claims 2nd place in the SBC East. GSU wins! Georgia State, that is...
Texas A&M @ LSU- This game went to 7 (SEVEN!!!) OTs last year and led to the current OT rules changes. I'm guessing we won't get anywhere near OT. The Tigers win big over the Aggies.
Iowa State @ Kansas State- These teams have had similar seasons- big wins, heartbreaking losses, and lots of close games. I'm tempted to go with the home Wildcats, but I simply believe the Cyclones are the better team. ISU wins.
Navy @ Houston- The Midshipmen need to win this game and hope Memphis loses to Cincinnati to win the AAC West and face that same Cincy team in the CG. The Cougars have had a disappointing season, but would get some satisfaction from ruining Navy's chances. Won't happen. Navy wins.
North Carolina @ NC State- The Tar Heels lead the series 66-36-6 (sixes wild!), but the Wolfpack have won the last 3 and 4 of the last 5. However, NCSU is having a terrible season and UNC is fighting for a bowl bid. UNC wins.
Colorado @ Utah- The Buffaloes can earn a bowl bid by beating the Utes, but the Utes need this win to win the Pac 12 South. This will be close for a while, but Utah is just too good. UU wins.
FSU @ Florida- The Gators lead the all-time series 35-26-2, but this has been a series of streaks; only 4 times has a win by either team been sandwiched between 2 losses, and each time, the winner was Florida. UF won last year, and since the Seminoles are just kind-of-OK this year, they should win again. UF wins.
ULM @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns lead the all-time series 28-25. Louisiana has already clinched the SBC West, but the Warhawks need 1 more win to qualify for a bowl. ULM has won 2 of their last 3, but UL has won 5 straight. Louisiana wins.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State- Oklahoma leads the Bedlam Series 88-18-7, and it's hard to call such a lopsided series a rivalry. the Sooners have won the last 4, 6 of the last 7, and 14 of the last 16. The Cowboys are capable of winning this, as the game lately has been close most year, but Oklahoma wins for a 5th straight year.
BYU @ San Diego State- The Aztecs have lost 2 of their last 3 and the Cougars have won 5 straight. I'm going with the hot team. BYU wins on the road.
Arizona @ Arizona State- The Wildcats lead the Territorial Cup 49-42-1, but the Sun Devils have won 2 straight and 5 of the last 7, and the last 3 played in Tempe. Arizona is on a 6-game losing streak. ASU wins.
California @ UCLA- Both of these teams have had up-and-down seasons. The Golden Bears are 3-2 on the road and have won 2 of their last 3 games overall. The Bruins are 2-3 at home and are on a 2-game losing streak. Cal wins.
Fresno State @ San Jose State- Neither of these teams have had a good season as both are 4-7 overall, but the Bulldogs have fallen from 12-2 a year ago while the Spartans improved from 1-11. Both teams are on 3-game losing streaks, but I'm picking SJSU to win at home.
Army @ Hawai'i- The Black Knights were expected to build on last season's 11-2 record, but have had a dreadful season, needing a win in both this game and against Navy to qualify for a bowl game. The Rainbow Warriors are MWC West C champions, and have a game next week against Boise State in the MWCCG. Hawai'i is 5-2 at home while Army is 1-4 on the road. UH wins.
Clemson @ South Carolina- The Tigers lead the series 70-42-4, and have won the last 5, but only after the Gamecocks won 5 in a row before that. SC is a terrible team (how did they ever beat Georgia?), and Clemson is one of the best, and defending national champions, to boot. This should be a blow out, but SC will keep it close- for about 5 minutes. Clemson wins big.
Georgia @ Georgia Tech- The Dawgs lead "Clean, Old Fashioned Hate" 67-41-5, but have really dominated the series of late, winning 8 of the last 10, 15 of 16, and 40 of the last 54. The Yellow Jackets are rebuilding their team after the end of the Paul Johnson era, and would like nothing better than to knock the Dawgs out of the playoff picture. UGA needs to get their offense untracked, and this is the perfect opportunity, as GT has allowed over 30 points 5 times this year. Dawgs win. Wreck Tech!
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina- Neither of these teams are going bowling, and this is mostly a meaningless game, as each is locked into their position in their division, and no outcome can change that. The Chanticleers are at home, so they'll edge the Bobcats.
Tulsa @ East Carolina- This is another game with no real meaningful outcomes. The Golden Hurricane have had a couple of good wins (Wyoming, YCF), and some close losses to good teams (SMU-2OT, Cincy, Memphis). The Pirates have beaten no one of significance, though they played Cincy and SMU close. Tough call, ut Tulsa wins.
FIU @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd now has to hope for some help to win the CUSA East, due to their loss last week to Charlotte, their 2nd real head-scratching loss (Middle Tenn was the other one). If they can win this, and FAU lose to Southern Miss, Marshall wins the division. The Panthers are coming off a huge upset of Miami, but will they carry that momentum into this game, or will they rest on their laurels a bit? This is a good matchup, but Marshall wins at home.
Louisville @ Kentucky- The Wildcats lead the series for the Governor's Cup 16-15, but the Cardinals have won 6 of the last 8 (Kentucky has won 2 of the last 3). This is another good matchup, as each team has won 3 of their last 4 games. I'm going with the home team. Kentucky gets their 2nd straight win in the series, and their 3rd in the last 4 games.
Northwestern @ Illinois- The Illini lead this series 55-52-5, but the Wildcats have won the last 4 and 6 of the last 7. However, Northwestern has really struggled this year while Illinois has had somewhat of a breakthrough season. A win here for the Illini would give them a chance to double last year's win total, as long as they win the bowl also. The Wildcats are hoping not to go winless in the Big Ten. Illinois takes home the Land of Lincoln Trophy with the win.
Indiana @ Purdue- Purdue leads this series for the Old Oaken Bucket 74-41-6, and have won 2 straight after the Hoosiers won 4 straight from 2013-2016. The Boilermakers took a step back this year after winning 6 in 2018, but the Hoosiers have a chance at 9 wins if they can win this and a bowl game. Indiana wins on the road.
Wake Forest @ Syracuse- The Demon Deacons have had a good year, already exceeding last year's 7 wins, but a victory here would give them a chance at 10 if they win their bowl. The Orange have been a huge disappointment after last year's 10 wins, and need a victory here to get to just half of that total. WF wins.
Middle Tennessee @ WKU- The Blue Raiders have had an odd season, beating Marshall and FIU, but losing to the likes of Rice and Charlotte. The Hilltoppers have already more than doubled last year's win total, and could actually triple it with a win here and in a bowl. WKU wins at home.
Charlotte @ ODU- The 49ers qualified for their 1st bowl game ever last week, and should still be riding that high. The Monarchs have yet to beat an FBS opponent, and this is their last chance. ODU will keep this close, but Charlotte pulls it out in the end.
Wyoming @ Air Force- The Cowboys have come close to getting a signature conference win, losing by a combined 12 points to SDSU, Boise St, and Utah St, and this is their last real chance. The Falcons have been fantastic all year long, losing only to Boise St and Navy, both on the road. This will be a good game! AF wins a close one.
New Mexico State @ Liberty- The Aggies are on a 2-game winning streak, breaking a string of 11 straight losses. The Flames have 6 wins but need a 7th to qualify for their 1st bowl ever in their 1st year of eligibility. These teams mete Oct 5 in Las Cruces, with Liberty winning by 7. Don't be surprised if NMSU wins, but I'm going with Liberty at home.
Rice @ UTEP- Like NMSU, the Owls have won their last 2 games, on the heels of losing 9 straight to start the season. The Miners won their opener, but it was only by 2 points over an FCS team. UTEP has only had 1 loss as close as 7 points, so I'm going with the "hot" (relative term...) team. Rice wins.
UNLV @ Nevada- The Fremont Cannon is awarded to the winner of this rivalry game, and the Wolfpack lead 27-17, and have won 11 of the last 14. However, The Rebels won last year and have won 3 of the last 6, but have not won 2 in a row since winning 5 straight from 200-2004. The Rebels have opted to replace HC Tony Sanchez. Both teams are striving to match last year's win total. Nevada wins.
Alabama @ Auburn- The Iron Bowl was played exclusively in Birmingham from 1904 to 1988 (the teams didn't meet between 1907 and 1948). The Crimson Tide leads the all-time series 46-36-1, and has won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 11. The Tigers have won 5 of the last 8 home games in this series. I'm going out on a limb and picking Auburn to win over Alabama and their backup QB.
Rutgers @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions will crush the Scarlet Knights.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota- The battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe is tied at 60-60-8, and I would wager that no game in the history of this series has been bigger. The winner of this game wins the Big Ten West, and the right to face Ohio St in the Big Ten CG next week. If the Golden Gophers win, that CG will probably be for a spot in the playoff. If the Badgers win, they would be fighting for the Rose Bowl slot. This should be a great game! Minnesota wins.
Baylor @ Kansas- The Bears have already clinched a spot in the Big 12 CG, and should have no problems with the Jayhawks. Baylor wins.
UConn @ Temple- This will be the last game for the Huskies as a member of the AAC. The Owls will roll over UConn.
Southern Miss @ FAU- The Owls need a win or a Marshall loss to clinch the CUSA East title. The Golden Eagles need a win to have a chance to win the CUSA West crown (unless the other 2 contenders both lose). High stakes all around! FAU has played well all year and is on a 4-game winning streak. FAU wins.
UTSA @ La Tech- The Bulldogs can still win the CUSA West division, but need to win this game to enhance their chances. The Roadrunners are already slotted into 4th or 5th place. LT wins.
Boston College @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers have lost 2 of their last 4, but the Eagles have lost 3 of 4. Pitt wins.
Miami, Fl @ Duke- The Hurricanes laid an egg last week in an upset loss to FIU, but the Blue Devils have laid an egg for 5 straight weeks. Miami wins.
Maryland @ Michigan State- The Spartans can attain a bowl bid by defeating the Terrapins, and I can't really think of an easier way to get a bowl invitation. MSU wins.
Oregon State @ Oregon- Both of these teams had a tough loss last week, costing the Beavers a possible bowl game and the Ducks a possible playoff berth. OSU can still get to a bowl, but they'll have to beat an angry Oregon squad. Or maybe a dispirited one. The Ducks lead the "Civil War" 65-47-10, and have won the last 2 and 10 of 11. OSU will give them a game, but Oregon wins.
Notre Dame @ Stanford- Most years, this is a good game. This is not one of those years. The Fighting Irish will rout the Cardinal.
Tulane @ SMU- The Mustangs took a tough loss to Navy last week to fall out of the AAC West title chase. The Green Wave have been good, but not great. This could lead to a close game, and perhaps an upset, but SMU wins at home.
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee- The Volunteers lead this series 75-33-5, but the Commodores have won 3 straight and 5 of the last 7. The Vols have dominated this series since 1928, and the current 3-game win streak for the 'Dores is the longest since they won 6 straight from 1920-1926 (they didn't play in 1924). Tennessee is on a 4-game winning streak while Vandy just broke a 3-game losing streak. UT wins.
UAB @ North Texas- The Blazers are one of 3 teams atop CUSA West, and need to win to stay in contention. The Mean Green are locked into 4th or 5th place. UAB wins.
Utah State @ New Mexico- The Lobos have parted ways with HC Bob Davie as they have not won more than 3 games since 2016, and can only get to 3 if they win this one. In addition, if they don't win this game, they will be winless in conference play for the 1st time since 1989, when they were a member of the WAC. The Aggies are coming off a disappointing loss to Boise St last week, and a win would get them to 7 wins, which is good, but not as good as last year's 11-2 record. USU wins.
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern- This is a relatively new series, as the Panthers have only been playing football for a few years. The Eagles lead the series 3-2, but have never beaten Ga State in Statesboro, where this game will be held. The winner of this game claims 2nd place in the SBC East. GSU wins! Georgia State, that is...
Texas A&M @ LSU- This game went to 7 (SEVEN!!!) OTs last year and led to the current OT rules changes. I'm guessing we won't get anywhere near OT. The Tigers win big over the Aggies.
Iowa State @ Kansas State- These teams have had similar seasons- big wins, heartbreaking losses, and lots of close games. I'm tempted to go with the home Wildcats, but I simply believe the Cyclones are the better team. ISU wins.
Navy @ Houston- The Midshipmen need to win this game and hope Memphis loses to Cincinnati to win the AAC West and face that same Cincy team in the CG. The Cougars have had a disappointing season, but would get some satisfaction from ruining Navy's chances. Won't happen. Navy wins.
North Carolina @ NC State- The Tar Heels lead the series 66-36-6 (sixes wild!), but the Wolfpack have won the last 3 and 4 of the last 5. However, NCSU is having a terrible season and UNC is fighting for a bowl bid. UNC wins.
Colorado @ Utah- The Buffaloes can earn a bowl bid by beating the Utes, but the Utes need this win to win the Pac 12 South. This will be close for a while, but Utah is just too good. UU wins.
FSU @ Florida- The Gators lead the all-time series 35-26-2, but this has been a series of streaks; only 4 times has a win by either team been sandwiched between 2 losses, and each time, the winner was Florida. UF won last year, and since the Seminoles are just kind-of-OK this year, they should win again. UF wins.
ULM @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns lead the all-time series 28-25. Louisiana has already clinched the SBC West, but the Warhawks need 1 more win to qualify for a bowl. ULM has won 2 of their last 3, but UL has won 5 straight. Louisiana wins.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State- Oklahoma leads the Bedlam Series 88-18-7, and it's hard to call such a lopsided series a rivalry. the Sooners have won the last 4, 6 of the last 7, and 14 of the last 16. The Cowboys are capable of winning this, as the game lately has been close most year, but Oklahoma wins for a 5th straight year.
BYU @ San Diego State- The Aztecs have lost 2 of their last 3 and the Cougars have won 5 straight. I'm going with the hot team. BYU wins on the road.
Arizona @ Arizona State- The Wildcats lead the Territorial Cup 49-42-1, but the Sun Devils have won 2 straight and 5 of the last 7, and the last 3 played in Tempe. Arizona is on a 6-game losing streak. ASU wins.
California @ UCLA- Both of these teams have had up-and-down seasons. The Golden Bears are 3-2 on the road and have won 2 of their last 3 games overall. The Bruins are 2-3 at home and are on a 2-game losing streak. Cal wins.
Fresno State @ San Jose State- Neither of these teams have had a good season as both are 4-7 overall, but the Bulldogs have fallen from 12-2 a year ago while the Spartans improved from 1-11. Both teams are on 3-game losing streaks, but I'm picking SJSU to win at home.
Army @ Hawai'i- The Black Knights were expected to build on last season's 11-2 record, but have had a dreadful season, needing a win in both this game and against Navy to qualify for a bowl game. The Rainbow Warriors are MWC West C champions, and have a game next week against Boise State in the MWCCG. Hawai'i is 5-2 at home while Army is 1-4 on the road. UH wins.
That's all for now! Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes, where I'll review all the results and their implications. Also, feel free to follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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