Paul's Picks Bowls Week 1- 12/19/19

Welcome back!

Last week was my best yet! I went 1-0 for a 1.000 win percentage!  Overall, I am 649-199, which is still 76.5%.  I've done pretty well this year.

Bowl week has arrived, and so have my picks.  However, please be aware that the bowls are notoriously difficult to predict.  Players sitting out, interim coaches, coaching staff changes, differing motivation levels for the 2 teams, and player suspensions all make the bowl games pretty much a coin flip.  But I'm going to try anyway!

On to the predictions!

Friday, December 20

Buffalo vs Charlotte (Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl- Nassau, NP)- The 49ers are playing in their 1st ever bowl game in just their 5th season in FBS, and are coming in on a 5-game winning streak, but only one of those wins- Marshall- was against a team with a winning record.  The Bulls also finished the season strong, winning 5 of their last 6, but again, only 1 was a win against a team with a winning record (CMU), but 2 were against 6-6 teams.  Buffalo wins, securing their 1st ever bowl victory in just their 4th bowl ever.

Utah State vs Kent State (Tropical Smoothie Café Frisco Bowl- Frisco, TX)- The Golden Flashes won their last 3 games to finish 6-6 and earn their 3rd ever bowl berth, but they have yet to win one.  The Aggies dropped off from last year's 11-2 record, finishing 7-5, and won 3 of their last 4.  The MAC was overall weak this year, while the MWC sported several decent teams.  USU wins and runs their bowl record to 6-7.

Saturday December 21

Central Michigan vs San Diego State (New Mexico Bowl- Albuquerque, NM)- The Aztecs finished in a tie for 1st in the MWC West, but lost the head-to-head with Hawai'i.  Their defense has been outstanding, allowing more than 17 points only twice, and those totals were 22 and 23 points.  Their offense, however, has been pretty dismal, since they scored over 27 points only once, and that was 31.  they stumbled a little at the end of the season, going 2-2 over their last 4 games.  The Chippewas won the MAC West, but lost in the title game to Miami.  They won 6 of their last 7 regular season games after a 2-3 start.  SDSU is 5-9 all-time in bowls and CMU is 3-8.  Not much to go on there.  SDSU wins simply because they are the better team.

Liberty vs Georgia Southern (FBS Mortgage Cure Bowl- Orlando, FL)- The Eagles played very well in the middle part of the season, but went 2-2 down the stretch.  They are 2-0 in bowls.  The Flames are playing in their 1st ever bowl in their 1st year of eligibility!  They won 5 straight after losing their first 2, then stumbled to a 2-3 finish ( they lost to Rutgers!).  GSU wins.

SMU vs FAU (Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl- Boca Raton, FL)- This is basically a home game for the Owls, but they'll be playing this without HC Lane Kiffin, who has taken the job at Ole Miss.  FAU won 10 of their last 11 after losing their opening 2, including their last 6, and they are 3-0 in bowl games.  After giving up 31 or more points in each of their 1st 3 games, they gave up more than 31 only once more the rest of the season, and held 5 opponents to 17 or less, including 3 to 7 or less.  Meanwhile, their offense scored 31 or more 10 times, and they were 1 of only 3 teams to score as much as 21 against Ohio State.  FAU won the CUSA title with a 49-6 pasting of UAB, and they are 3-0 in bowls.  The Mustangs had a surprise season, and very nearly won the AAC West.  They won their 1st 8, then went 2-2 down the stretch, finishing 10-2 after going 5-7 last year.  They are 7-8-1 all time in bowls.  I almost talked myself into an FAU win as I was typing this up, but SMU is simply a better team, one that has been tested by tougher competition.  SMU wins and evens their bowl record.

FIU vs Arkansas State (Camellia Bowl- Montgomery, AL)- The Panthers are one of those ubiquitous 6-6 bowl teams.  They went 2-3 over their last 5 games and are 2-2 in bowls.  The Red Wolves won 4 of their last 5 (losing their closing game to South Alabama), and they are 3-6 in bowls, having lost 3 of their last 4.  This game is truly a toss-up, but I believe in the Wolves.  ASU wins.

Boise State vs Washington (Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl- Las Vegas, NV)- The Broncos are definitely one of the best Group of 5 teams, and they went 12-1, winning the MWC title.  With a 12-6 bowl record, they are used to big games.  In addition, they have won 10+ games for the last 4 years, and have won at least 8 games every year beginning in 1999!  And in only 4 of those 21 years have they won less than 10.  They will NOT be intimidated by a 7-5 team.  The Huskies have had a disappointing season, but they won 2 of their last 3 to finish in a 3-way tie for 2nd in the Pac 12 North.  UW is 17-20-1 in bowls.  Their main motivation will be in getting one last win for retiring HC Chris Peterson, and they will be playing Peterson's former team.  That's not enough to overcome the Broncos.  Boise State wins.

Appalachian State vs UAB (R & L Carriers New Orleans Bowl- New Orleans LA)- The Blazers won the CUSA West division for the 2nd straight year, but got blown out in the title game.  They won their last 3 games, but are only 1-2 in bowls.  The Mountaineers went 12-1, winning the SBC title, and they are 4-0 in bowl games, playing in one every year they've been eligible.  Their 12 wins gives them 4 10+ win seasons in their last 5.  ASU wins.

Monday, December 23

UCF vs Marshall (Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl- Tampa, FL)- The Thundering Herd can equal last year's 9-4 record with a win in this bowl game, and they come in on a pretty good roll, winning 6 of their last 7.  Their 1 loss in that stretch, to Charlotte, cost them the FAU East title.  They are 12-2 all-time in bowls, and they have won their last 7 bowl games.  The Knights lost a regular season game for the 1st time since 2016, and they also come in on a roll, winning 5 of their last 6.  They are 4-6 in bowls.  UCF wins because they are the better team, and they've played tougher competition.

Tuesday, December 24

Hawai'i vs BYU (Sofi Hawai'i Bowl- Honolulu, HI)- The Cougars have had a strange season, winning games against better teams ((Tennessee, USC, Boise St) and losing to lesser teams (Toledo, USF).  They won 5 of their last 6, but lost their last one.  they are 15-20-1 in bowls.  The Rainbow Warriors won the MWC West division, but lost in the title game.  They started and ended the season strong, but had  a rough middle.  They come in having won 4 of their last 5 and are 6-6 in bowls.  This is another bowl where a team is playing at home.  UH wins, but it will be close.

That's all for now!  Come back next week for my TWIF Notes, where I'll review all the results and their implications.  Also, feel free to follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!