Paul's Picks Bowls Week 2- 12/26/19
Welcome back!
So far in my bowl predictions, I am 6-4. That's not too bad, considering how notoriously difficult it is to pick bowl winners, but not anywhere near where I expect to be. My dumbest pick was Boise State to beat Washington (they lost 38-7!), but picking SMU to beat FAU wasn't too bright, either. I should have allowed myself to be convinced as I was writing up my picks from last week. But that won't stop me from giving you another round of picks! These will cover From today (12/26) through January 6, so this will be my last post of 2019. I will do my National Championship Game pick probably on January 9, my normal Thursday for picks.
Before I get into this next group of bowl games, let's examine how each conference has done. So far, the bowls have only featured one P5 team- the aforementioned Washington. But here are the standings so far:
Pac 12 1-0 1.000
MAC 2-1 .667
SBC 2-1 .667
MWC 2-2 .500
B10 0-0 .000
ACC 0-0 .000
B12 0-0 .000
As you can see, CUSA is not doing so well (as you say, "Thank you, Obvious Man"). However, they have 3 more chances for a win, and could even their record if they win all 3.
On to the picks!
Thursday, December 26
La Tech vs Miami, FL (Walk-on's Independence Bowl- Shreveport, LA)- The Hurricanes are in their 7th straight bowl, and they are 19-21 all-time in bowls. They had a midseason stretch where they won 4 of 5, but they lost their last 2 to FIU and @Duke. The Bulldogs had an 8-game winning streak, but then lost 2 of their last 3. They are 7-3-1 in bowls, and this is their 6th straight bowl game. LT is capable of an offensive outburst, as they scored 41+ six times, but they were also held to 20 and below 4 times. The U scored more than 27 only 3 times (1 against an FCS team and once in a loss to VT), but their defense held opponents under 28 points 8 times. Miami has had a rough season, but they'll pull this one out, probably in a rout, as their defense dominates.
Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan (Quick Lane Bowl- Detroit, MI)- This could be considered a quasi-home game for the Eagles (at least they're in the same state), who are 1-2 in bowls. They scored 34 or more 6 times, including 4 games of scoring exactly 34, but their defense allowed 27 or more 9 times. The Panthers are yet another mediocre ACC team from the Coastal Division, and they are 13-21 in bowls. They started the season 5-2, then went 2-3 down the stretch, including losing their last 2 by a combined 35 points. Pitt has already beaten one MAC team this year, defeating Ohio 20-10 on Sep 7, so they shouldn't have a problem overcoming EMU. Pitt wins.
Friday, December 27
North Carolina vs Temple (Military Bowl- Annapolis, MD)- The Tar Heels won their 1st 2 games and their last 2, but in between they were 2-6. They are 14-19 in bowls, and have lost 3 straight. Offense was not the problem for UNC, as they scored 27+ eight times, but their defense allowed 24 or more 6 times, 5 of those losses. The Owls, like UNC, started and ended well, beginning the season 5-1, losing 2 straight, then going 3-1 at the end. Except for 3 games where they allowed 63 (to UCF), 45 (to SMU) and 38 (to Buffalo), all of them losses, their defense played pretty well, holding 8 opponents to 21 or less. However, their offense struggled, scoring more than 30 points only twice. Despite that, Temple will score enough to win, but it will be close. Temple in a close one.
Michigan State vs Wake Forest (New Era Pinstripe Bowl- New York, NY)- The Demon Deacons surprised a lot of people with their strong 5-0 and 7-1 start, but them they lost 3 of their last 4. They are 9-4 in bowls, and are in their 4th straight, having won their last 3. The Spartans won their last 2 games, breaking a 5-game losing streak, but those wins were against Rutgers and Maryland. Their offense was held to 10 or less 5 times! MSU is 12-16 in bowls, but they are 1-2 in their last 3. Wake Forest wins.
Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M (Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl- Houston, TX)- This is the game where we might find out if TAMU is any good. Or not. The Aggies lost 5 games, all to ranked teams. But none of their 7 wins was against a team with a winning record (Miss St was 6-6). TAMU is 18-22 in bowls, and this is their 11th straight. An interesting stat is that the Aggies have scored 52 points in each of their last 2 bowls, yet are 1-1 in those games. Their win last year was their 1st since the 2014 Liberty Bowl over West Virginia. The Cowboys won 4 of their last 5 games, and they allowed 27 or less points 7 times, while scoring 30 or more 8 times. OSU has one of the better bowl records at 19-10. and they've won their last 3. This is their 14th straight bowl appearance. I'm betting Jimbo Fisher will have his team ready. TAMU wins a close one.
USC vs Iowa (San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl- San Diego, CA)- The Trojans are on a bit of a roll, winning 4 of their last 5. Only once all season were they held to less than 23 points, but their defense held 5 opponents to 23 or less. This is another team with an outstanding bowl record at 35-19. The Hawkeyes also finished strong, winning 5 of 6. Defensively, they held 10 opponents to 20 points or less, allowing a high of 24 twice and posting 2 shutouts. Offensively, they scored 27 or less in their last 8 games. They only scored 30 or more against 3 teams- Miami, Oh, Rutgers, and Mid Tenn. 4 times they scored less than 20, and went 2-2 in those games. The PAC 12 usually does pretty well against the Big Ten in bowl games, especially those played on the West Coast. USC scores just enough to win, as Iowa's offense struggles yet again. USC wins.
Air Force vs Washington State (Cheez-It Bowl- Phoenix, AZ)- The Cougars had an up-and-down season, as evidenced by their 6-6 record, but they won 2 of their last 3. Offensively, they were very good, as they scored 31 or more 9 times, but they lost 3 of those. Defensively, Wazzu gave up 31+ points 7 times, including a high of 67. WSU is 8-7 in bowls but are 1-2 in their last 3. This is their 5th straight bowl. The Falcons return to a bowl for the 1st time in 3 years, and are 12-11-1 all-time in bowls, but have won 2 of their last 3. They come into this game on a 6-game winning streak. They held 8 opponents to 24 points or less, so this will be a clash of styles. AF wins.
Saturday, December 28
Memphis @ Penn State (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic- Dallas, TX)- The Tigers had an outstanding season, winning the AAC title and securing the G5 NY6 berth, but their opponent is a Nittany Lions team that went 10-2 with both of its losses on the road (Minnesota and OSU). Memphis scored 34 or more 10 times, including their last 6 games, but they are 4-7 all-time in bowl games. This is their 6th straight bowl, but they have lost their last 4. The Lions lost 2 of their last 4 games, but their defense has been very good, only allowing 3 teams to score more than 21 points, and holding 8 opponents to 13 points or less. PSU is 29-18-2 I bowls, but have lost 3 of their last 4. This is also their 6th straight bowl. PSU wins.
Notre Dame vs Iowa State (Camping World Bowl- Orlando, FL)- The Fighting Irish had a 10-2 season, so you know they must be disappointed playing a 7-5 Iowa State, but the Cyclones are no slouches. ISU won 2 of their last 3, and 4 of their 5 losses were by a combined 11 points- they lost by 7 to OSU, by 2 @Baylor, and by 1 each to Iowa and @Oklahoma. Their only loss bigger than 7 was by 10 to Kansas St in their finale. ISU is in their 3rd straight bowl, and are 4-10 all-time. The Irish are on a 5-game winning streak, and only once all season have they given up more than 27 points. They have held 10 opponents to 24 points or less, including 3 to 7 or less. ND is 18-19 in bowls, and are also in their 3rd straight. ND evens their bowl record with a win.
Oklahoma vs LSU (Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl/CFP Semifinal- Atlanta, GA)- The Sooners are 12-1, but 4 of their wins were by 7 points or less. HC Lincoln Riley is 36-5, an unbelievable .878 winning percentage! OU is 29-22-1 in bowls, but have lost their last 2. This is their 21st consecutive bowl berth. The Tigers are 13-0 and seeded 1st in the CFP. They have scored 46+ in their last 4 regular season games, and scored 37 against Georgia's defense in the SECCG. LSU is 26-23-1 all-time in bowls and have won 3 of their last 4. This is their 20th consecutive bowl. LSU wins.
Clemson vs Ohio State (PlayStation Fiesta Bowl/CFP Semifinal- Glendale, AZ)- The Buckeyes are the other 2 teams that made it through the season unscathed, both going 13-0. The Buckeyes won their 13 games by an average of 36 points, the closest being by 13 over Penn St at home. The Tigers won by an average of 35.9, with their closest a 1-point win over UNC on the road. OSU is 25-25 in bowl games, having won their last 2, and this is their 7th straight bowl appearance. The Tigers are 24-20 in bowls, and this is their 14th consecutive bowl appearance. Statistically, not much separates these 2 teams, but I'm going with the defending champions. Clemson wins.
Monday, December 30
WKU vs Western Michigan (Servpro First Responder Bowl- Dallas, TX)- The Hilltoppers had a surprising 1st season under new HC Tyson Helton, improving from 3-9 to 8-4. They are on a 3-game winning streak, and won 7 of 9 to end the regular season. They are 3-2 in bowls, winning 3 straight before losing their last one in 2017. The Broncos are 7-5 after going 7-6 last year. A win in this game would give them their most victories in a season since going 13-1 in 2016. They are only 1-8 in bowl games, their lone victory coming in 2015 over Middle Tennessee. They finished the regular season winning 3 of 4, but lost their finale to NIU, which cost them the MAC West title. I think WKU gets to 9 wins for the 1st time since winning 11 in 2016. WKU wins.
Mississippi State vs Louisville (Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl- Nashville, TN)- The Cardinals had a bounce-back season following last year's 2-10 debacle, going 7-5 and ending the season 2-1. Their defense needs much work, though, as they gave up 34 points or more 8 different times, losing 5 of those. Obviously, offense wasn't the problem, though they were held to 17 or less by 3 teams- Notre Dame, Clemson, and Kentucky. The Bulldogs took a step back from last year's 8-5, finishing the regular season 6-6, but they won their last 2 and 3 of their last 4. But to put that in perspective, 3 of their wins were against bowl teams, and all of their losses are to bowl teams. This is a decent, if not great, team, and they should handle the Cardinals. MSU is 13-9 in bowls, and this is their 10th straight, but they've lost 2 of their last 3. UL is 10-11-1 in bowls and have lost 2 straight. MSU wins.
California vs Illinois (Redbox Bowl- Santa Clara, CA)- The Illini had a fairy tale season (for them), defeating Wisconsin and Michigan State, but they lost their last 2. They are only 8-10 in bowl games, with their last bowl a loss to La Tech in 2014. The Golden Bears have won 7 games for the 2nd consecutive year, winning their last 2 and 3 of their last 4. An 8th win would equal their record from 2015. The Bears held 9 opponents to 21 points are less, and another scored 24. But on offense, they only scored more than 28 once, and scored 24 or less 7 times. They are 11-11-1 in bowls, but have lost 3 of their last 4. Cal wins by holding Illinois to under 20 and scoring just enough. Plus, the Pac 12 just does well against teams from the Big Ten in bowl games, especially those played on the West Coast.
Florida vs Virginia (Capital One Orange Bowl- Miami, FL)- The Cavaliers won the ACC Coastal, and earned the right to get blown out by Clemson in the ACCCG. They won their last 4 of the regular season, and 5 of 6 before the above-mentioned blowout. Their offense took off in the 2nd half of the season, scoring 33+ in each of their last 5 wins after scoring more than that only once in their 1st 6 games. Their defense also gave up more points as the season went along. The Wahoos are 8-12 in bowl games, but their 28-0 win over S Carolina last year broke a 3-game bowl losing streak. The Gators scored 34 or more in half of their games, but their defense only allowed more than 27 points once, and that was to LSU. They also had 3 shutouts, and held 2 other teams without a TD. The Gators are 23-21 in bowls, and they've won their last 2 and 3 of their last 4. I don't see UVA staying within 2 TDs of UF. Florida wins easily.
Tuesday, December 31
Virginia Tech vs Kentucky (Belk Bowl-Charlotte, NC)- The Wildcats had a drop-off from last year's 10-win season, but ended the year on a high note, winning their last 3 and 4 of their last 5. Their win in the Citrus Bowl over Penn St last year broke a 4-game bowl losing streak. UK scored 38 or more in each of their last 3 games, while their defense allowed 21 or less over their last 7 games. The Hokies have already improved their win total by 2, and had a strong finishing kick to the season before losing to UVA in the finale. They won 6 of their last 8, with 2 shutouts. They are 13-19 all-time in bowls, but they've lost their last 2. This is their 27th consecutive bowl appearance! This will be a good game, but UK pulls it out, though I must admit my confidence is not high on this one.
FSU vs Arizona State (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl- El Paso, TX)- I went to 4 bowl games as an undergraduate at UGA, and the Sun Bowl was perhaps my favorite locale- what a beautiful setting! That has absolutely nothing to do with anything, but I just wanted to share that tidbit... Anyway... FSU vs ASU: The Seminoles were slightly less awful than last year, going 6-6 compared to 2018's 5-7. They won 2 of their last 3, but their finale was a 23-point loss to rival Florida. All time, FSU is 28-16-2 in bowls, and they've won their last 2. The Sun Devils finished 7-5 and in a tie for 3rd in the P12 South. They are 14-16-1 in bowls, and a win here would give them their best record since going 10-3 in 2014. However, they've lost their last 3 bowls. ASU wins and builds some momentum for next year.
Navy vs Kansas State (Autozone Liberty Bowl- Memphis, TN)- The Wildcats improved by 3 games from last year, going 8-4 and finishing tied for 3rd in the Big 12. They even had a victiry over Oklahoma, the Sooners' only loss. Of their 4 losses, 2 were by a combined 7 points. They are 9-12 in bowls, but have won their last 2. The Midshipmen completely turned their season around, going from 3-10 to 10-2. I don't know for sure, but a win here COULD signify the biggest difference in terms of increase in wins in one season. Navy is 11-11-1 in bowls, and they've won 4 of their last 5. This should be a good game, but I believe Navy controls the clock and wins.
Wyoming vs Georgia State (Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl- Tucson, AZ)- The Cowboys and Panthers have identical records at 7-5. They both have a victory over an SEC team in their seson opener. They both finished 4-4 in their respective conference. They both went 1-3 over their last 4 games. But Wyoming has a defense, and GSU doesn't, and that will be the biggest difference. GSU is 1-1 in bowls and Wyoming is 7-8. Wyoming wins.
Utah vs Texas (Valero Alamo Bowl- San Antonio, TX)- I loved San Antonio when I visited there a few years ago! The Utes were right on the edge of playoff qualification when they got blown out by Oregon in the P12CG. It's difficult to know how motivated they will be for this game against a 7-5 Texas (much like UGA lacked motivation last year against this same Texas team). However Utah is 17-5 in bowl games, and have won 5 of 6 under HC Kyle Whittingham, their lone loss coming last year to Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl. This is their 6th straight bowl. The Longhorns were only 7-5 this year, and lost 2 of their last 3, but they are 29-24-2 in bowls and have won 2 straight, both over SEC teams (their loss before these was also to an SEC team). Their last 4 games, the Horns' defense gave up, in order, 24, 23, 24, and 23 points. Talk about consistency, but 2 of those were losses. Utah wins, but it won't be easy to find the motivation.
Wednesday, January 1, 2020
Minnesota vs Auburn (Outback Bowl- Tampa, FL)- The Golden Gophers had a golden season, winning 10 games and almost making the Big Ten Championship Game. However, they lost 2 of their last 3, and they were only 2-2 against teams with winning records, beating Ga Southern and Penn St, but losing to Iowa and Wisconsin. They are 8-12 in bowls, but have won 2 of their last 3. The Tigers come in 9-3 with their losses to Georgia, LSU and Florida, all teams with 10 or more wins. They also have victories over 10-win-plus teams in Oregon and Alabama. Their offense topped 50 points 4 times, and their defense allowed more than 24 points only once, and held 5 to 16 or less. AU's all-time bowl record is 24-17-2, and they destroyed Purdue, last year's surprise Big Ten West team, 63-14. I foresee a similar result, though not quite so lopsided. Tigers/War Eagles/Plainsmen win.
Michigan vs Alabama (VRBO Citrus Bowl- Orlando, FL)- Both of these teams are coming off disappointing (for them) seasons, as both fell far short of their goal of reaching their respective conference championship game. I'm not sure either team is particularly motivated to win this game. The Crimson Tide has scored at least 35 in every game, topped 40 in 10 games, and had 59 or more in 3, so offense is obviously not a problem. However, their defense uncharacteristically gave up 46 and 48 points in 2 of their last 4 games, and 2 other teams scored 28 or more. They did hold 7 opponents to 13 or less, but of those, only Tennessee had a winning record, and only the Vols and Miss St made a bowl. Bama is 41-26-3 in bowl games, and this is their 16th consecutive year going to a bowl. The Wolverines were blown out by OSU in their finale, but also had a 21-point loss to Wisconsin (after being down by 35!) and a 7-point loss to Penn St. Except for those 3 games, they gave up no more than 25 points in any of their 9 wins. On offense, they scored 38 or more 6 times. UM is 21-26 in bowls, and they've lost their last 3. This is their 5th straight bowl. Michigan has a great defense, unless they play a good offensive team, much like Alabama's defense. But the Bama offense is much better than the Michigan offense.. Alabama wins, but it should be a high-scoring, entertaining affair.
Oregon vs Wisconsin (Rose Bowl- Pasadena, CA)- The main difference between these 2 teams is that Oregon won the conference championship game while Wisconsin lost theirs. The Badgers had a brief 2-game losing streak in midseason, but otherwise routed 8 of their other 10 opponents, and had 4 shutouts. They are 16-14 in bowl games, but have won their last 5. This is their 18th straight bowl appearance. The Ducks only allowed 3 teams to score more than 27, but scored at least 28 eight times. They are 14-18 in bowls and have won 2 of their last 3. The Pac 12 has won 9 of the last 12 Rose Bowls against the Big Ten, and I see this turning out the same way. Oregon wins.
Georgia vs Baylor (Allstate Sugar Bowl- New Orleans, LA)- The Bears were only 1-11 two short years ago, but they played in the B12CG and went 11-2, the same as the Bulldogs. Baylor scored 31 or more 7 times, and 56 or more 3 times, but were also held to 24 or less 4 times. On defense, they allowed as much as 30 points only 3 times, and Oklahoma did it twice. They are 13-11 in bowls and have won their last 3. The Dawgs scored more than 27 only 5 times, but only 2 of those, Vandy and Tennessee, were against conference teams. In their other 7 conference games (including the SECCG), they averaged just less than 20 ppg. However, on defense, they held all but LSU to 20 points or less, including 5 games of 7 points or less (3 shutouts). They are 31-21-3 in bowls (I was there for 2 of their ties!), and have won 4 of their last 5 bowl games (4 of 6 if you include the CFP Championship game after the 2017 season, which technically isn't bowl game). This is their 23rd consecutive bowl appearance. This will be a low-scoring affair, as both defenses are quite good, while both offenses are pretty pedestrian. I think UGA will be much more motivated after what transpired last year. Dawgs win.
Thursday, January 2
Boston College vs Cincinnati (Ticketsmarter Birmingham Bowl- Birmingham, AL)- Even though BC had a 6-6 season, the Eagles actually did pretty well. Other than the inexcusable blowout loss to Kansas, their other losses were to bowl teams- Wake forest, @Louisville, @Clemson, FSU, and @Notre Dame. However, only 2 of their 6 victories were over bowl teams- 8-4 Va Tech and 7-5 Pitt. BC is 14-12 in bowls, but last year's bowl was cancelled due to weather. The Bearcats are 10-3, with 2 losses to AAC champion Memphis and one loss to CFP participant Ohio State, albeit 42-0 way back on Sep 7. Cincy is 8-9 in bowls, but their victory last year halted a 3-bowl losing streak. Cincy wins.
Indiana vs Tennessee (Taxslayer Gator Bowl- Jacksonville, FL)- The Hoosiers finally broke through the 5-7 ceiling to finish 8-4, but they were 0-4 versus bowl teams, so all of their wins were against teams with losing records. They are 3-8 all-time in bowls, but a win here would give them their most wins since they went 9-2 in 1967 under John Pont, which was also the last year they went to the Rose Bowl. They've lost their last 4 bowls. The Volunteers are back in a bowl after a 2-year hiatus, but they had to overcome a horrible 1-4 start (and a loss to Ga State!) to get there. They're currently on a 5-game winning streak, and have won 6 of 7, with 3 of those wins over bowl teams, and their loss to Alabama. UT is 28-24 in bowls and have won their last 3, each by at least 14 points. UT wins.
Friday, January 3
Ohio vs Nevada (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl- Boise, ID)- The Wolfpack is not a very impressive team, but they do own a victory over 10-win San Diego State, and won 3 of their last 4. They are 6-10 in bowls winning their last 2. The Bobcats are yet another 6-6 MAC team (there were 4 of them), but their offense scored 34, 66, and 52 points in their last 3 games. They are 4-8 in bowls, but have won their last 2. This is the 1st time since they went 6-6 in 2014 that they will finish with less than 8 wins. Nevada wins.
Saturday, January 4
Southern Miss vs Tulane (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl- Fort Worth, TX)- The Golden Eagles nearly won the CUSA West division, but came up just short when they lost their last 2 games. before those 2 losses, they had won 5 of 6. USM is 11-12 in bowls, losing 2 of their last 3, and this is their 5th straight bowl. The Green Wave stumbled late, losing their last 3 and 5 of their last 6, but all of those losses were to the upper echelon of the AAC: @Memphis, @Navy, @Temple, UCF, and @SMU. They are 5-7 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4. The AAC is a better conference than CUSA, and their records are comparable. Tulane wins.
Monday, January 6
Louisiana vs Miami, OH (LendingTree Bowl- Mobile, AL)- The Redhawks have won 8 games for the 1st time since they went 10-4 in 2010, and they did it by winning 5 of their last 6 games. Although the MAC has started 2-1 in bowls, they have been by far the worst conference in FBS. Miami is 7-4 in bowls and have lost 2 of their last 3. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 10 games for the 1st time in it's almost 50 year history of playing football. They won their last 6 regular season before losing a 2nd time to App St in the SBCCG. Their other loss was by 10 to Miss St in their opener. Louisiana is 4-2 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 5. These 2 teams appear to be fairly evenly matched, but I see Louisiana winning a close one.
Monday, January 13
National Championship Game- My early prediction is LSU, but I will give a more detailed analysis along with my pick on January 9. Look for it then!
So far in my bowl predictions, I am 6-4. That's not too bad, considering how notoriously difficult it is to pick bowl winners, but not anywhere near where I expect to be. My dumbest pick was Boise State to beat Washington (they lost 38-7!), but picking SMU to beat FAU wasn't too bright, either. I should have allowed myself to be convinced as I was writing up my picks from last week. But that won't stop me from giving you another round of picks! These will cover From today (12/26) through January 6, so this will be my last post of 2019. I will do my National Championship Game pick probably on January 9, my normal Thursday for picks.
Before I get into this next group of bowl games, let's examine how each conference has done. So far, the bowls have only featured one P5 team- the aforementioned Washington. But here are the standings so far:
Pac 12 1-0 1.000
MAC 2-1 .667
SBC 2-1 .667
MWC 2-2 .500
AAC 1-1 .500
Ind 1-1 .500
CUSA 1-4 ..200
SEC 0-0 .000B10 0-0 .000
ACC 0-0 .000
B12 0-0 .000
As you can see, CUSA is not doing so well (as you say, "Thank you, Obvious Man"). However, they have 3 more chances for a win, and could even their record if they win all 3.
On to the picks!
Thursday, December 26
La Tech vs Miami, FL (Walk-on's Independence Bowl- Shreveport, LA)- The Hurricanes are in their 7th straight bowl, and they are 19-21 all-time in bowls. They had a midseason stretch where they won 4 of 5, but they lost their last 2 to FIU and @Duke. The Bulldogs had an 8-game winning streak, but then lost 2 of their last 3. They are 7-3-1 in bowls, and this is their 6th straight bowl game. LT is capable of an offensive outburst, as they scored 41+ six times, but they were also held to 20 and below 4 times. The U scored more than 27 only 3 times (1 against an FCS team and once in a loss to VT), but their defense held opponents under 28 points 8 times. Miami has had a rough season, but they'll pull this one out, probably in a rout, as their defense dominates.
Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan (Quick Lane Bowl- Detroit, MI)- This could be considered a quasi-home game for the Eagles (at least they're in the same state), who are 1-2 in bowls. They scored 34 or more 6 times, including 4 games of scoring exactly 34, but their defense allowed 27 or more 9 times. The Panthers are yet another mediocre ACC team from the Coastal Division, and they are 13-21 in bowls. They started the season 5-2, then went 2-3 down the stretch, including losing their last 2 by a combined 35 points. Pitt has already beaten one MAC team this year, defeating Ohio 20-10 on Sep 7, so they shouldn't have a problem overcoming EMU. Pitt wins.
Friday, December 27
North Carolina vs Temple (Military Bowl- Annapolis, MD)- The Tar Heels won their 1st 2 games and their last 2, but in between they were 2-6. They are 14-19 in bowls, and have lost 3 straight. Offense was not the problem for UNC, as they scored 27+ eight times, but their defense allowed 24 or more 6 times, 5 of those losses. The Owls, like UNC, started and ended well, beginning the season 5-1, losing 2 straight, then going 3-1 at the end. Except for 3 games where they allowed 63 (to UCF), 45 (to SMU) and 38 (to Buffalo), all of them losses, their defense played pretty well, holding 8 opponents to 21 or less. However, their offense struggled, scoring more than 30 points only twice. Despite that, Temple will score enough to win, but it will be close. Temple in a close one.
Michigan State vs Wake Forest (New Era Pinstripe Bowl- New York, NY)- The Demon Deacons surprised a lot of people with their strong 5-0 and 7-1 start, but them they lost 3 of their last 4. They are 9-4 in bowls, and are in their 4th straight, having won their last 3. The Spartans won their last 2 games, breaking a 5-game losing streak, but those wins were against Rutgers and Maryland. Their offense was held to 10 or less 5 times! MSU is 12-16 in bowls, but they are 1-2 in their last 3. Wake Forest wins.
Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M (Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl- Houston, TX)- This is the game where we might find out if TAMU is any good. Or not. The Aggies lost 5 games, all to ranked teams. But none of their 7 wins was against a team with a winning record (Miss St was 6-6). TAMU is 18-22 in bowls, and this is their 11th straight. An interesting stat is that the Aggies have scored 52 points in each of their last 2 bowls, yet are 1-1 in those games. Their win last year was their 1st since the 2014 Liberty Bowl over West Virginia. The Cowboys won 4 of their last 5 games, and they allowed 27 or less points 7 times, while scoring 30 or more 8 times. OSU has one of the better bowl records at 19-10. and they've won their last 3. This is their 14th straight bowl appearance. I'm betting Jimbo Fisher will have his team ready. TAMU wins a close one.
USC vs Iowa (San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl- San Diego, CA)- The Trojans are on a bit of a roll, winning 4 of their last 5. Only once all season were they held to less than 23 points, but their defense held 5 opponents to 23 or less. This is another team with an outstanding bowl record at 35-19. The Hawkeyes also finished strong, winning 5 of 6. Defensively, they held 10 opponents to 20 points or less, allowing a high of 24 twice and posting 2 shutouts. Offensively, they scored 27 or less in their last 8 games. They only scored 30 or more against 3 teams- Miami, Oh, Rutgers, and Mid Tenn. 4 times they scored less than 20, and went 2-2 in those games. The PAC 12 usually does pretty well against the Big Ten in bowl games, especially those played on the West Coast. USC scores just enough to win, as Iowa's offense struggles yet again. USC wins.
Air Force vs Washington State (Cheez-It Bowl- Phoenix, AZ)- The Cougars had an up-and-down season, as evidenced by their 6-6 record, but they won 2 of their last 3. Offensively, they were very good, as they scored 31 or more 9 times, but they lost 3 of those. Defensively, Wazzu gave up 31+ points 7 times, including a high of 67. WSU is 8-7 in bowls but are 1-2 in their last 3. This is their 5th straight bowl. The Falcons return to a bowl for the 1st time in 3 years, and are 12-11-1 all-time in bowls, but have won 2 of their last 3. They come into this game on a 6-game winning streak. They held 8 opponents to 24 points or less, so this will be a clash of styles. AF wins.
Saturday, December 28
Memphis @ Penn State (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic- Dallas, TX)- The Tigers had an outstanding season, winning the AAC title and securing the G5 NY6 berth, but their opponent is a Nittany Lions team that went 10-2 with both of its losses on the road (Minnesota and OSU). Memphis scored 34 or more 10 times, including their last 6 games, but they are 4-7 all-time in bowl games. This is their 6th straight bowl, but they have lost their last 4. The Lions lost 2 of their last 4 games, but their defense has been very good, only allowing 3 teams to score more than 21 points, and holding 8 opponents to 13 points or less. PSU is 29-18-2 I bowls, but have lost 3 of their last 4. This is also their 6th straight bowl. PSU wins.
Notre Dame vs Iowa State (Camping World Bowl- Orlando, FL)- The Fighting Irish had a 10-2 season, so you know they must be disappointed playing a 7-5 Iowa State, but the Cyclones are no slouches. ISU won 2 of their last 3, and 4 of their 5 losses were by a combined 11 points- they lost by 7 to OSU, by 2 @Baylor, and by 1 each to Iowa and @Oklahoma. Their only loss bigger than 7 was by 10 to Kansas St in their finale. ISU is in their 3rd straight bowl, and are 4-10 all-time. The Irish are on a 5-game winning streak, and only once all season have they given up more than 27 points. They have held 10 opponents to 24 points or less, including 3 to 7 or less. ND is 18-19 in bowls, and are also in their 3rd straight. ND evens their bowl record with a win.
Oklahoma vs LSU (Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl/CFP Semifinal- Atlanta, GA)- The Sooners are 12-1, but 4 of their wins were by 7 points or less. HC Lincoln Riley is 36-5, an unbelievable .878 winning percentage! OU is 29-22-1 in bowls, but have lost their last 2. This is their 21st consecutive bowl berth. The Tigers are 13-0 and seeded 1st in the CFP. They have scored 46+ in their last 4 regular season games, and scored 37 against Georgia's defense in the SECCG. LSU is 26-23-1 all-time in bowls and have won 3 of their last 4. This is their 20th consecutive bowl. LSU wins.
Clemson vs Ohio State (PlayStation Fiesta Bowl/CFP Semifinal- Glendale, AZ)- The Buckeyes are the other 2 teams that made it through the season unscathed, both going 13-0. The Buckeyes won their 13 games by an average of 36 points, the closest being by 13 over Penn St at home. The Tigers won by an average of 35.9, with their closest a 1-point win over UNC on the road. OSU is 25-25 in bowl games, having won their last 2, and this is their 7th straight bowl appearance. The Tigers are 24-20 in bowls, and this is their 14th consecutive bowl appearance. Statistically, not much separates these 2 teams, but I'm going with the defending champions. Clemson wins.
Monday, December 30
WKU vs Western Michigan (Servpro First Responder Bowl- Dallas, TX)- The Hilltoppers had a surprising 1st season under new HC Tyson Helton, improving from 3-9 to 8-4. They are on a 3-game winning streak, and won 7 of 9 to end the regular season. They are 3-2 in bowls, winning 3 straight before losing their last one in 2017. The Broncos are 7-5 after going 7-6 last year. A win in this game would give them their most victories in a season since going 13-1 in 2016. They are only 1-8 in bowl games, their lone victory coming in 2015 over Middle Tennessee. They finished the regular season winning 3 of 4, but lost their finale to NIU, which cost them the MAC West title. I think WKU gets to 9 wins for the 1st time since winning 11 in 2016. WKU wins.
Mississippi State vs Louisville (Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl- Nashville, TN)- The Cardinals had a bounce-back season following last year's 2-10 debacle, going 7-5 and ending the season 2-1. Their defense needs much work, though, as they gave up 34 points or more 8 different times, losing 5 of those. Obviously, offense wasn't the problem, though they were held to 17 or less by 3 teams- Notre Dame, Clemson, and Kentucky. The Bulldogs took a step back from last year's 8-5, finishing the regular season 6-6, but they won their last 2 and 3 of their last 4. But to put that in perspective, 3 of their wins were against bowl teams, and all of their losses are to bowl teams. This is a decent, if not great, team, and they should handle the Cardinals. MSU is 13-9 in bowls, and this is their 10th straight, but they've lost 2 of their last 3. UL is 10-11-1 in bowls and have lost 2 straight. MSU wins.
California vs Illinois (Redbox Bowl- Santa Clara, CA)- The Illini had a fairy tale season (for them), defeating Wisconsin and Michigan State, but they lost their last 2. They are only 8-10 in bowl games, with their last bowl a loss to La Tech in 2014. The Golden Bears have won 7 games for the 2nd consecutive year, winning their last 2 and 3 of their last 4. An 8th win would equal their record from 2015. The Bears held 9 opponents to 21 points are less, and another scored 24. But on offense, they only scored more than 28 once, and scored 24 or less 7 times. They are 11-11-1 in bowls, but have lost 3 of their last 4. Cal wins by holding Illinois to under 20 and scoring just enough. Plus, the Pac 12 just does well against teams from the Big Ten in bowl games, especially those played on the West Coast.
Florida vs Virginia (Capital One Orange Bowl- Miami, FL)- The Cavaliers won the ACC Coastal, and earned the right to get blown out by Clemson in the ACCCG. They won their last 4 of the regular season, and 5 of 6 before the above-mentioned blowout. Their offense took off in the 2nd half of the season, scoring 33+ in each of their last 5 wins after scoring more than that only once in their 1st 6 games. Their defense also gave up more points as the season went along. The Wahoos are 8-12 in bowl games, but their 28-0 win over S Carolina last year broke a 3-game bowl losing streak. The Gators scored 34 or more in half of their games, but their defense only allowed more than 27 points once, and that was to LSU. They also had 3 shutouts, and held 2 other teams without a TD. The Gators are 23-21 in bowls, and they've won their last 2 and 3 of their last 4. I don't see UVA staying within 2 TDs of UF. Florida wins easily.
Tuesday, December 31
Virginia Tech vs Kentucky (Belk Bowl-Charlotte, NC)- The Wildcats had a drop-off from last year's 10-win season, but ended the year on a high note, winning their last 3 and 4 of their last 5. Their win in the Citrus Bowl over Penn St last year broke a 4-game bowl losing streak. UK scored 38 or more in each of their last 3 games, while their defense allowed 21 or less over their last 7 games. The Hokies have already improved their win total by 2, and had a strong finishing kick to the season before losing to UVA in the finale. They won 6 of their last 8, with 2 shutouts. They are 13-19 all-time in bowls, but they've lost their last 2. This is their 27th consecutive bowl appearance! This will be a good game, but UK pulls it out, though I must admit my confidence is not high on this one.
FSU vs Arizona State (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl- El Paso, TX)- I went to 4 bowl games as an undergraduate at UGA, and the Sun Bowl was perhaps my favorite locale- what a beautiful setting! That has absolutely nothing to do with anything, but I just wanted to share that tidbit... Anyway... FSU vs ASU: The Seminoles were slightly less awful than last year, going 6-6 compared to 2018's 5-7. They won 2 of their last 3, but their finale was a 23-point loss to rival Florida. All time, FSU is 28-16-2 in bowls, and they've won their last 2. The Sun Devils finished 7-5 and in a tie for 3rd in the P12 South. They are 14-16-1 in bowls, and a win here would give them their best record since going 10-3 in 2014. However, they've lost their last 3 bowls. ASU wins and builds some momentum for next year.
Navy vs Kansas State (Autozone Liberty Bowl- Memphis, TN)- The Wildcats improved by 3 games from last year, going 8-4 and finishing tied for 3rd in the Big 12. They even had a victiry over Oklahoma, the Sooners' only loss. Of their 4 losses, 2 were by a combined 7 points. They are 9-12 in bowls, but have won their last 2. The Midshipmen completely turned their season around, going from 3-10 to 10-2. I don't know for sure, but a win here COULD signify the biggest difference in terms of increase in wins in one season. Navy is 11-11-1 in bowls, and they've won 4 of their last 5. This should be a good game, but I believe Navy controls the clock and wins.
Wyoming vs Georgia State (Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl- Tucson, AZ)- The Cowboys and Panthers have identical records at 7-5. They both have a victory over an SEC team in their seson opener. They both finished 4-4 in their respective conference. They both went 1-3 over their last 4 games. But Wyoming has a defense, and GSU doesn't, and that will be the biggest difference. GSU is 1-1 in bowls and Wyoming is 7-8. Wyoming wins.
Utah vs Texas (Valero Alamo Bowl- San Antonio, TX)- I loved San Antonio when I visited there a few years ago! The Utes were right on the edge of playoff qualification when they got blown out by Oregon in the P12CG. It's difficult to know how motivated they will be for this game against a 7-5 Texas (much like UGA lacked motivation last year against this same Texas team). However Utah is 17-5 in bowl games, and have won 5 of 6 under HC Kyle Whittingham, their lone loss coming last year to Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl. This is their 6th straight bowl. The Longhorns were only 7-5 this year, and lost 2 of their last 3, but they are 29-24-2 in bowls and have won 2 straight, both over SEC teams (their loss before these was also to an SEC team). Their last 4 games, the Horns' defense gave up, in order, 24, 23, 24, and 23 points. Talk about consistency, but 2 of those were losses. Utah wins, but it won't be easy to find the motivation.
Wednesday, January 1, 2020
Minnesota vs Auburn (Outback Bowl- Tampa, FL)- The Golden Gophers had a golden season, winning 10 games and almost making the Big Ten Championship Game. However, they lost 2 of their last 3, and they were only 2-2 against teams with winning records, beating Ga Southern and Penn St, but losing to Iowa and Wisconsin. They are 8-12 in bowls, but have won 2 of their last 3. The Tigers come in 9-3 with their losses to Georgia, LSU and Florida, all teams with 10 or more wins. They also have victories over 10-win-plus teams in Oregon and Alabama. Their offense topped 50 points 4 times, and their defense allowed more than 24 points only once, and held 5 to 16 or less. AU's all-time bowl record is 24-17-2, and they destroyed Purdue, last year's surprise Big Ten West team, 63-14. I foresee a similar result, though not quite so lopsided. Tigers/War Eagles/Plainsmen win.
Michigan vs Alabama (VRBO Citrus Bowl- Orlando, FL)- Both of these teams are coming off disappointing (for them) seasons, as both fell far short of their goal of reaching their respective conference championship game. I'm not sure either team is particularly motivated to win this game. The Crimson Tide has scored at least 35 in every game, topped 40 in 10 games, and had 59 or more in 3, so offense is obviously not a problem. However, their defense uncharacteristically gave up 46 and 48 points in 2 of their last 4 games, and 2 other teams scored 28 or more. They did hold 7 opponents to 13 or less, but of those, only Tennessee had a winning record, and only the Vols and Miss St made a bowl. Bama is 41-26-3 in bowl games, and this is their 16th consecutive year going to a bowl. The Wolverines were blown out by OSU in their finale, but also had a 21-point loss to Wisconsin (after being down by 35!) and a 7-point loss to Penn St. Except for those 3 games, they gave up no more than 25 points in any of their 9 wins. On offense, they scored 38 or more 6 times. UM is 21-26 in bowls, and they've lost their last 3. This is their 5th straight bowl. Michigan has a great defense, unless they play a good offensive team, much like Alabama's defense. But the Bama offense is much better than the Michigan offense.. Alabama wins, but it should be a high-scoring, entertaining affair.
Oregon vs Wisconsin (Rose Bowl- Pasadena, CA)- The main difference between these 2 teams is that Oregon won the conference championship game while Wisconsin lost theirs. The Badgers had a brief 2-game losing streak in midseason, but otherwise routed 8 of their other 10 opponents, and had 4 shutouts. They are 16-14 in bowl games, but have won their last 5. This is their 18th straight bowl appearance. The Ducks only allowed 3 teams to score more than 27, but scored at least 28 eight times. They are 14-18 in bowls and have won 2 of their last 3. The Pac 12 has won 9 of the last 12 Rose Bowls against the Big Ten, and I see this turning out the same way. Oregon wins.
Georgia vs Baylor (Allstate Sugar Bowl- New Orleans, LA)- The Bears were only 1-11 two short years ago, but they played in the B12CG and went 11-2, the same as the Bulldogs. Baylor scored 31 or more 7 times, and 56 or more 3 times, but were also held to 24 or less 4 times. On defense, they allowed as much as 30 points only 3 times, and Oklahoma did it twice. They are 13-11 in bowls and have won their last 3. The Dawgs scored more than 27 only 5 times, but only 2 of those, Vandy and Tennessee, were against conference teams. In their other 7 conference games (including the SECCG), they averaged just less than 20 ppg. However, on defense, they held all but LSU to 20 points or less, including 5 games of 7 points or less (3 shutouts). They are 31-21-3 in bowls (I was there for 2 of their ties!), and have won 4 of their last 5 bowl games (4 of 6 if you include the CFP Championship game after the 2017 season, which technically isn't bowl game). This is their 23rd consecutive bowl appearance. This will be a low-scoring affair, as both defenses are quite good, while both offenses are pretty pedestrian. I think UGA will be much more motivated after what transpired last year. Dawgs win.
Thursday, January 2
Boston College vs Cincinnati (Ticketsmarter Birmingham Bowl- Birmingham, AL)- Even though BC had a 6-6 season, the Eagles actually did pretty well. Other than the inexcusable blowout loss to Kansas, their other losses were to bowl teams- Wake forest, @Louisville, @Clemson, FSU, and @Notre Dame. However, only 2 of their 6 victories were over bowl teams- 8-4 Va Tech and 7-5 Pitt. BC is 14-12 in bowls, but last year's bowl was cancelled due to weather. The Bearcats are 10-3, with 2 losses to AAC champion Memphis and one loss to CFP participant Ohio State, albeit 42-0 way back on Sep 7. Cincy is 8-9 in bowls, but their victory last year halted a 3-bowl losing streak. Cincy wins.
Indiana vs Tennessee (Taxslayer Gator Bowl- Jacksonville, FL)- The Hoosiers finally broke through the 5-7 ceiling to finish 8-4, but they were 0-4 versus bowl teams, so all of their wins were against teams with losing records. They are 3-8 all-time in bowls, but a win here would give them their most wins since they went 9-2 in 1967 under John Pont, which was also the last year they went to the Rose Bowl. They've lost their last 4 bowls. The Volunteers are back in a bowl after a 2-year hiatus, but they had to overcome a horrible 1-4 start (and a loss to Ga State!) to get there. They're currently on a 5-game winning streak, and have won 6 of 7, with 3 of those wins over bowl teams, and their loss to Alabama. UT is 28-24 in bowls and have won their last 3, each by at least 14 points. UT wins.
Friday, January 3
Ohio vs Nevada (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl- Boise, ID)- The Wolfpack is not a very impressive team, but they do own a victory over 10-win San Diego State, and won 3 of their last 4. They are 6-10 in bowls winning their last 2. The Bobcats are yet another 6-6 MAC team (there were 4 of them), but their offense scored 34, 66, and 52 points in their last 3 games. They are 4-8 in bowls, but have won their last 2. This is the 1st time since they went 6-6 in 2014 that they will finish with less than 8 wins. Nevada wins.
Saturday, January 4
Southern Miss vs Tulane (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl- Fort Worth, TX)- The Golden Eagles nearly won the CUSA West division, but came up just short when they lost their last 2 games. before those 2 losses, they had won 5 of 6. USM is 11-12 in bowls, losing 2 of their last 3, and this is their 5th straight bowl. The Green Wave stumbled late, losing their last 3 and 5 of their last 6, but all of those losses were to the upper echelon of the AAC: @Memphis, @Navy, @Temple, UCF, and @SMU. They are 5-7 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4. The AAC is a better conference than CUSA, and their records are comparable. Tulane wins.
Monday, January 6
Louisiana vs Miami, OH (LendingTree Bowl- Mobile, AL)- The Redhawks have won 8 games for the 1st time since they went 10-4 in 2010, and they did it by winning 5 of their last 6 games. Although the MAC has started 2-1 in bowls, they have been by far the worst conference in FBS. Miami is 7-4 in bowls and have lost 2 of their last 3. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 10 games for the 1st time in it's almost 50 year history of playing football. They won their last 6 regular season before losing a 2nd time to App St in the SBCCG. Their other loss was by 10 to Miss St in their opener. Louisiana is 4-2 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 5. These 2 teams appear to be fairly evenly matched, but I see Louisiana winning a close one.
Monday, January 13
National Championship Game- My early prediction is LSU, but I will give a more detailed analysis along with my pick on January 9. Look for it then!
That's all for now! I'll be back on January 9 for my CFP Championship Game pick. Also, feel free to follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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