2019 Football Season in Review
Welcome back!
I know it's been a while since my last post (about 4 months!), but it seems that I now have the time to do so, what with everyone staying home. I've been meaning to do this for a long time, but teaching and other things kept pushing this project off, and then it got to where my thought was, "What's the point?" The season has been LOOOOONG gone, and no one really cares. But I care, so now I'm finally getting around to it.
In an earlier post (Odds and Ends 12/18/19), I pointed out that I finished 2nd to Phil Steele in my conference predictions (using the formula outlined in his magazine). I think that's pretty good, considering he's touted as the best in the business. Just as a reminder, I beat him (and all the others) for the 2018 season. In this post, I'm going to review my bowl prediction record, my overall prediction record, and my predictions for each individual team.
For the bowls, I went 28-12, a 70% rate. I was right on 8 of the last 9 bowl games after a rough start. For the year, I finished 676-211, for a winning percentage of .762, which is pretty good, if I do say so myself.
In my individual team previews in July and August, I posited a best and worst case scenario for each team, in terms of record. Here is a spreadsheet for how I did. Records are for regular season only.
Preseason Rank Team Best Case Worst Case Actual Record Result
130 Rice 3-9 1-11 3-9 Best Case
129 South Alabama 4-8 1-11 2-10 CORRECT
128 San Jose State 4-8 1-11 5-7 Undervalued
127 UTEP 7-5 4-8 1-11 Overvalued
126 Coastal Carolina 5-7 2-10 5-7 Best Case
125 UMass 8-4 3-9 1-11 Overvalued
124 New Mexico State 6-6 3-9 2-10 Overvalued
123 Akron 6-6 2-10 0-11 Overvalued
122 Kent State 4-8 1-11 6-6 Undervalued
121 Bowling Green 3-9 1-11 3-9 Best Case
120 UConn 4-8 1-11 2-10 CORRECT
119 UTSA 5-7 2-10 4-8 CORRECT
118 Georgia State 6-6 3-9 7-5 Undervalued
117 Texas State 5-7 2-10 3-9 CORRECT
116 Ball State 5-7 3-9 5-7 Best Case
115 Charlotte 5-7 2-10 7-5 Undervalued
114 Central Michigan 5-7 2-10 8-4 Undervalued
113 ODU 6-6 4-8 1-11 Overvalued
112 New Mexico 5-7 2-10 2-1 Worst Case
111 East Carolina 4-8 2-10 4-8 Best Case
110 ULM 6-6 4-8 5-7 CORRECT
109 Rutgers 4-8 2-10 2-10 Worst Case
108 WKU 5-7 2-10 8-4 Undervalued
107 UNLV 6-6 3-9 4-8 CORRECT
106 Colorado State 6-6 2-10 4-8 CORRECT
105 Eastern Michigan 8-4 4-8 6-6 CORRECT
104 Liberty 7-5 4-8 7-5 Best Case
103 Miami, Ohio 6-6 4-8 7-5 Undervalued
102 Oregon State 3-9 1-11 5-7 Undervalued
101 Tulsa 3-9 1-11 4-8 Undervalued
100 Buffalo 8-4 5-7 7-5 CORRECT
99 Illinois 4-8 2-10 6-6 Undervalued
98 Mid Tenn State 8-4 6-6 4-8 Overvalued
97 Wyoming 7-5 4-8 7-5 Best Case
96 Louisiana 6-6 4-8 10-2 Undervalued
95 Kansas 4-8 2-10 3-9 CORRECT
94 Nevada 8-4 6-6 7-5 CORRECT
93 Hawai'i 8-5 3-10 9-4 Undervalued
92 Navy 5-7 2-10 10-2 Undervalued
91 Northern Illinois 7-5 4-8 5-7 CORRECT
90 SMU 7-5 4-8 10-2 Undervalued
89 UAB 9-3 7-5 9-3 Best Case
88 Maryland 6-6 3-9 3-9 Worst Case
87 Georgia Tech 5-7 2-10 3-9 CORRECT
86 Tulane 7-5 4-8 6-6 CORRECT
85 Southern Miss 9-3 5-7 7-5 CORRECT
84 FAU 10-2 5-7 9-3 CORRECT
83 Georgia Southern 9-3 7-5 7-5 Worst Case
82 North Texas 10-2 6-6 4-8 Overvalued
81 Arkansas 5-7 3-9 2-10 Overvalued
80 Arkansas State 10-2 7-5 7-5 Worst Case
79 Western Michigan 8-4 6-6 7-5 CORRECT
78 Troy 10-2 6-6 5-7 Overvalued
77 Temple 7-5 5-7 8-4 Undervalued
76 La Tech 10-2 8-4 9-3 CORRECT
75 Air Force 6-6 3-9 10-2 Undervalued
74 Louisville 4-8 2-10 7-5 Undervalued
73 Colorado 6-6 3-9 5-7 CORRECT
72 USF 8-4 4-8 4-8 Worst Case
71 FIU 10-2 8-4 6-6 Overvalued
70 Toledo 10-2 6-6 6-6 Worst Case
69 Wake Forest 6-6 4-8 8-4 Undervalued
68 Vanderbilt 7-5 4-8 3-9 Overvalued
67 Mississippi 7-5 4-8 4-8 Worst Case
66 Ohio 11-1 7-5 6-6 Overvalued
65 Indiana 6-6 4-8 8-4 Undervalued
64 Kansas State 5-7 3-9 8-4 Undervalued
63 Boston College 7-5 4-8 6-6 CORRECT
62 Duke 7-5 4-8 5-7 CORRECT
61 Marshall 11-1 8-4 8-4 Worst Case
60 North Carolina 8-4 4-8 6-6 CORRECT
59 San Deigo State 10-2 7-5 9-3 CORRECT
58 Pittsburgh 8-4 5-7 7-5 CORRECT
57 Kentucky 9-3 6-6 7-5 CORRECT
56 West Virginia 8-4 5-7 5-7 Worst Case
55 Houston 9-3 6-6 4-8 Overvalued
54 California 8-4 4-8 7-5 CORRECT
53 Utah State 8-4 4-8 7-5 CORRECT
52 Appalachian State 11-1 7-5 11-1 Best Case
51 Texas Tech 8-4 5-7 4-8 Overvalued
50 BYU 9-3 5-7 7-5 CORRECT
49 Fresno State 11-1 8-4 4-8 Overvalued
48 Tennessee 8-4 5-7 7-5 CORRECT
47 Army 12-1 9-4 5-8 Overvalued
46 Purdue 7-5 4-8 4-8 Worst Case
45 NC State 11-1 7-5 4-8 Overvalued
44 Arizona State 9-3 6-6 7-5 CORRECT
43 Baylor 9-3 6-6 11-1 Undervalued
42 UCLA 6-6 3-9 4-8 CORRECT
41 Memphis 10-2 6-6 11-1 Undervalued
40 Minnesota 9-3 7-5 10-2 Undervalued
39 Arizona 7-5 3-9 4-8 CORRECT
38 FSU 9-3 4-8 6-6 CORRECT
37 Cincinnati 10-2 7-5 10-2 Best Case
36 Syracuse 11-1 8-4 5-7 Overvalued
35 Virginia 10-2 7-5 9-3 CORRECT
34 South Carolina 7-5 4-8 4-8 Worst Case
33 Northwestern 9-3 6-6 3-9 Overvalued
32 Virginia Tech 11-1 8-4 8-4 Worst Case
31 Boise State 12-0 9-3 11-1 CORRECT
30 Oklahoma State 8-4 6-6 8-4 Best Case
29 Missouri 11-1 8-4 6-6 Overvalued
28 USC 9-3 6-6 8-4 CORRECT
27 Mississippi State 9-3 6-6 6-6 Worst Case
26 Miami, Fl 12-0 8-4 6-6 Overvalued
25 Nebraska 11-1 8-4 5-7 Overvalued
24 TCU 11-1 7-5 5-7 Overvalued
23 Stanford 10-2 8-4 4-8 Overvalued
22 Iowa State 11-1 7-5 7-5 Worst Case
21 Washington State 9-3 7-5 6-6 Overvalued
20 Wisconsin 10-2 7-5 10-2 Best Case
19 UCF 12-0 8-4 9-3 CORRECT
18 Iowa 10-2 7-5 9-3 CORRECT
17 Penn State 10-2 8-4 10-2 Best Case
16 Michigan State 9-3 6-6 6-6 Worst Case
15 Oregon 11-1 9-3 10-2 CORRECT
14 Texas 12-0 9-3 7-5 Overvalued
13 Auburn 9-3 5-7 9-3 Best Case
12 Utah 12-0 10-2 11-1 CORRECT
11 Texas A&M 10-2 8-4 7-5 Overvalued
10 Washington 12-0 9-3 7-5 Overvalued
9 Notre Dame 12-0 8-4 10-2 CORRECT
8 LSU 12-0 8-4 12-0 Best Case
7 Florida 10-2 5-7 10-2 Best Case
6 Oklahoma 12-0 10-2 11-1 CORRECT
5 Michigan 12-0 9-3 9-3 Worst Case
4 Georgia 12-0 8-4 11-1 CORRECT
3 Ohio State 12-0 10-2 12-0 Best Case
2 Clemson 12-0 10-2 12-0 Best Case
1 Alabama 12-0 9-3 10-2 CORRECT
To interpret the above (sorry about the formatting- evidently you can't just copy and paste from sheets and keep column integrity. Or colors. I had to redo the colors.), I was correct on 79 out of 130 teams. I undervalued 23 teams and I overvalued 28, which means I was wrong on 51. I picked the best case for 18 teams and the worst case for 17 teams. The other 44 correct picks were between the best and worst case.
In addition, I gave the coaches a Hot Seat rating. Here is the rating system I used:
5= Scorching! Win or else!
4= Very warm. Improvement needed now.
3= Getting warm. Results needed soon.
2= Cool. Margin for error.
1= Frozen. It would take a cold day in Hell, or at least a major scandal.
Of the 2 I rated a 5, both were fired. Of the 6 I gave a 4 to, none were fired. 7 coaches I rated as a 3 were fired and 2 coaches I rated a 2 were fired- Joe Moorhead at Miss St (6-6, my worst case scenario) and Barry Odom at Missouri (6-6, 2 games worse than my worst case).
I plan to continue my blog, though I do not have set schedule like I did in the fall. I'm still cautiously optimistic that football will happen this year.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
I know it's been a while since my last post (about 4 months!), but it seems that I now have the time to do so, what with everyone staying home. I've been meaning to do this for a long time, but teaching and other things kept pushing this project off, and then it got to where my thought was, "What's the point?" The season has been LOOOOONG gone, and no one really cares. But I care, so now I'm finally getting around to it.
In an earlier post (Odds and Ends 12/18/19), I pointed out that I finished 2nd to Phil Steele in my conference predictions (using the formula outlined in his magazine). I think that's pretty good, considering he's touted as the best in the business. Just as a reminder, I beat him (and all the others) for the 2018 season. In this post, I'm going to review my bowl prediction record, my overall prediction record, and my predictions for each individual team.
For the bowls, I went 28-12, a 70% rate. I was right on 8 of the last 9 bowl games after a rough start. For the year, I finished 676-211, for a winning percentage of .762, which is pretty good, if I do say so myself.
In my individual team previews in July and August, I posited a best and worst case scenario for each team, in terms of record. Here is a spreadsheet for how I did. Records are for regular season only.
Preseason Rank Team Best Case Worst Case Actual Record Result
130 Rice 3-9 1-11 3-9 Best Case
129 South Alabama 4-8 1-11 2-10 CORRECT
128 San Jose State 4-8 1-11 5-7 Undervalued
127 UTEP 7-5 4-8 1-11 Overvalued
126 Coastal Carolina 5-7 2-10 5-7 Best Case
125 UMass 8-4 3-9 1-11 Overvalued
124 New Mexico State 6-6 3-9 2-10 Overvalued
123 Akron 6-6 2-10 0-11 Overvalued
122 Kent State 4-8 1-11 6-6 Undervalued
121 Bowling Green 3-9 1-11 3-9 Best Case
120 UConn 4-8 1-11 2-10 CORRECT
119 UTSA 5-7 2-10 4-8 CORRECT
118 Georgia State 6-6 3-9 7-5 Undervalued
117 Texas State 5-7 2-10 3-9 CORRECT
116 Ball State 5-7 3-9 5-7 Best Case
115 Charlotte 5-7 2-10 7-5 Undervalued
114 Central Michigan 5-7 2-10 8-4 Undervalued
113 ODU 6-6 4-8 1-11 Overvalued
112 New Mexico 5-7 2-10 2-1 Worst Case
111 East Carolina 4-8 2-10 4-8 Best Case
110 ULM 6-6 4-8 5-7 CORRECT
109 Rutgers 4-8 2-10 2-10 Worst Case
108 WKU 5-7 2-10 8-4 Undervalued
107 UNLV 6-6 3-9 4-8 CORRECT
106 Colorado State 6-6 2-10 4-8 CORRECT
105 Eastern Michigan 8-4 4-8 6-6 CORRECT
104 Liberty 7-5 4-8 7-5 Best Case
103 Miami, Ohio 6-6 4-8 7-5 Undervalued
102 Oregon State 3-9 1-11 5-7 Undervalued
101 Tulsa 3-9 1-11 4-8 Undervalued
100 Buffalo 8-4 5-7 7-5 CORRECT
99 Illinois 4-8 2-10 6-6 Undervalued
98 Mid Tenn State 8-4 6-6 4-8 Overvalued
97 Wyoming 7-5 4-8 7-5 Best Case
96 Louisiana 6-6 4-8 10-2 Undervalued
95 Kansas 4-8 2-10 3-9 CORRECT
94 Nevada 8-4 6-6 7-5 CORRECT
93 Hawai'i 8-5 3-10 9-4 Undervalued
92 Navy 5-7 2-10 10-2 Undervalued
91 Northern Illinois 7-5 4-8 5-7 CORRECT
90 SMU 7-5 4-8 10-2 Undervalued
89 UAB 9-3 7-5 9-3 Best Case
88 Maryland 6-6 3-9 3-9 Worst Case
87 Georgia Tech 5-7 2-10 3-9 CORRECT
86 Tulane 7-5 4-8 6-6 CORRECT
85 Southern Miss 9-3 5-7 7-5 CORRECT
84 FAU 10-2 5-7 9-3 CORRECT
83 Georgia Southern 9-3 7-5 7-5 Worst Case
82 North Texas 10-2 6-6 4-8 Overvalued
81 Arkansas 5-7 3-9 2-10 Overvalued
80 Arkansas State 10-2 7-5 7-5 Worst Case
79 Western Michigan 8-4 6-6 7-5 CORRECT
78 Troy 10-2 6-6 5-7 Overvalued
77 Temple 7-5 5-7 8-4 Undervalued
76 La Tech 10-2 8-4 9-3 CORRECT
75 Air Force 6-6 3-9 10-2 Undervalued
74 Louisville 4-8 2-10 7-5 Undervalued
73 Colorado 6-6 3-9 5-7 CORRECT
72 USF 8-4 4-8 4-8 Worst Case
71 FIU 10-2 8-4 6-6 Overvalued
70 Toledo 10-2 6-6 6-6 Worst Case
69 Wake Forest 6-6 4-8 8-4 Undervalued
68 Vanderbilt 7-5 4-8 3-9 Overvalued
67 Mississippi 7-5 4-8 4-8 Worst Case
66 Ohio 11-1 7-5 6-6 Overvalued
65 Indiana 6-6 4-8 8-4 Undervalued
64 Kansas State 5-7 3-9 8-4 Undervalued
63 Boston College 7-5 4-8 6-6 CORRECT
62 Duke 7-5 4-8 5-7 CORRECT
61 Marshall 11-1 8-4 8-4 Worst Case
60 North Carolina 8-4 4-8 6-6 CORRECT
59 San Deigo State 10-2 7-5 9-3 CORRECT
58 Pittsburgh 8-4 5-7 7-5 CORRECT
57 Kentucky 9-3 6-6 7-5 CORRECT
56 West Virginia 8-4 5-7 5-7 Worst Case
55 Houston 9-3 6-6 4-8 Overvalued
54 California 8-4 4-8 7-5 CORRECT
53 Utah State 8-4 4-8 7-5 CORRECT
52 Appalachian State 11-1 7-5 11-1 Best Case
51 Texas Tech 8-4 5-7 4-8 Overvalued
50 BYU 9-3 5-7 7-5 CORRECT
49 Fresno State 11-1 8-4 4-8 Overvalued
48 Tennessee 8-4 5-7 7-5 CORRECT
47 Army 12-1 9-4 5-8 Overvalued
46 Purdue 7-5 4-8 4-8 Worst Case
45 NC State 11-1 7-5 4-8 Overvalued
44 Arizona State 9-3 6-6 7-5 CORRECT
43 Baylor 9-3 6-6 11-1 Undervalued
42 UCLA 6-6 3-9 4-8 CORRECT
41 Memphis 10-2 6-6 11-1 Undervalued
40 Minnesota 9-3 7-5 10-2 Undervalued
39 Arizona 7-5 3-9 4-8 CORRECT
38 FSU 9-3 4-8 6-6 CORRECT
37 Cincinnati 10-2 7-5 10-2 Best Case
36 Syracuse 11-1 8-4 5-7 Overvalued
35 Virginia 10-2 7-5 9-3 CORRECT
34 South Carolina 7-5 4-8 4-8 Worst Case
33 Northwestern 9-3 6-6 3-9 Overvalued
32 Virginia Tech 11-1 8-4 8-4 Worst Case
31 Boise State 12-0 9-3 11-1 CORRECT
30 Oklahoma State 8-4 6-6 8-4 Best Case
29 Missouri 11-1 8-4 6-6 Overvalued
28 USC 9-3 6-6 8-4 CORRECT
27 Mississippi State 9-3 6-6 6-6 Worst Case
26 Miami, Fl 12-0 8-4 6-6 Overvalued
25 Nebraska 11-1 8-4 5-7 Overvalued
24 TCU 11-1 7-5 5-7 Overvalued
23 Stanford 10-2 8-4 4-8 Overvalued
22 Iowa State 11-1 7-5 7-5 Worst Case
21 Washington State 9-3 7-5 6-6 Overvalued
20 Wisconsin 10-2 7-5 10-2 Best Case
19 UCF 12-0 8-4 9-3 CORRECT
18 Iowa 10-2 7-5 9-3 CORRECT
17 Penn State 10-2 8-4 10-2 Best Case
16 Michigan State 9-3 6-6 6-6 Worst Case
15 Oregon 11-1 9-3 10-2 CORRECT
14 Texas 12-0 9-3 7-5 Overvalued
13 Auburn 9-3 5-7 9-3 Best Case
12 Utah 12-0 10-2 11-1 CORRECT
11 Texas A&M 10-2 8-4 7-5 Overvalued
10 Washington 12-0 9-3 7-5 Overvalued
9 Notre Dame 12-0 8-4 10-2 CORRECT
8 LSU 12-0 8-4 12-0 Best Case
7 Florida 10-2 5-7 10-2 Best Case
6 Oklahoma 12-0 10-2 11-1 CORRECT
5 Michigan 12-0 9-3 9-3 Worst Case
4 Georgia 12-0 8-4 11-1 CORRECT
3 Ohio State 12-0 10-2 12-0 Best Case
2 Clemson 12-0 10-2 12-0 Best Case
1 Alabama 12-0 9-3 10-2 CORRECT
To interpret the above (sorry about the formatting- evidently you can't just copy and paste from sheets and keep column integrity. Or colors. I had to redo the colors.), I was correct on 79 out of 130 teams. I undervalued 23 teams and I overvalued 28, which means I was wrong on 51. I picked the best case for 18 teams and the worst case for 17 teams. The other 44 correct picks were between the best and worst case.
In addition, I gave the coaches a Hot Seat rating. Here is the rating system I used:
5= Scorching! Win or else!
4= Very warm. Improvement needed now.
3= Getting warm. Results needed soon.
2= Cool. Margin for error.
1= Frozen. It would take a cold day in Hell, or at least a major scandal.
Of the 2 I rated a 5, both were fired. Of the 6 I gave a 4 to, none were fired. 7 coaches I rated as a 3 were fired and 2 coaches I rated a 2 were fired- Joe Moorhead at Miss St (6-6, my worst case scenario) and Barry Odom at Missouri (6-6, 2 games worse than my worst case).
I plan to continue my blog, though I do not have set schedule like I did in the fall. I'm still cautiously optimistic that football will happen this year.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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