Paul's Picks Early Bowls

Welcome Back!

Last week I was a very mediocre 11-8, or 57.9%.  Overall, I am now 394-148, or 72.7%, for a drop of .5% from last week.  My goal every year is to finish at or above 80%, though I've never actually achieved that, but I almost always finish above 75%.  Last year I finished at 76.5% for the regular season, and 76.2% overall, which isn't too shabby.  

I want to point out that my predictions come simply from 45+ years of watching and following college football.  I do not have the time (or staff!) to do massive research into depth charts, injuries, transfers, etc, and so, if I were you, I certainly wouldn't take my picks to Vegas (or wherever) and bet the mortgage with them!  My brothers and I have been predicting the games among ourselves off and on for many years, and I should point out that I haven't "won" in a while, but I also haven't finished last, either, so there's that.  

So far, I am 4-1 in my bowl picks, which I'm pretty happy about, but there are still 22 more, plus the National Championship Game, yet to go, so I'm not going to brag just yet.  As you no doubt know, bowl games have always been notoriously hard to predict, as teams usually have a month or more to prepare and install some new wrinkles.  This year, there isn't that time period, but we have so many opt-outs and injuries and COVID issues that it just may be even more difficult to pick.  Then there is the motivation factor.  Will Texas A&M be motivated to prove the CFP committee wrong, or will they think, "The heck with it," and just go through the motions.  How motivated will 3-7 Mississippi State be? It's just so difficult to know how these players will react.  One point of information about my bowl picks: I am listing each team's bowl record this way- overall/last 5 years.  Anyway... let's get to the picks!

New Mexico Bowl-Frisco, TX

Hawai'i vs Houston- These teams actually met previously, in the 2003 Hawai'i Bowl, with the Rainbow Warriors winning 54-48.  I expect a similarly close game this year, but maybe in the 20s and/or 30s.  Hawai'i is 7-6/2-3 in bowl games and the Cougars are 11-15-1/3-2.  These 2 teams are the epitome of mediocrity (at least in their records) as they are a combined 7-8, but didn't play many games.  The MWC was 1-0 vs the AAC this year.  If this were the Hawai'i Bowl on the Island, I would go with the Warriors, but since it's in Texas, Houston wins.

Camellia Bowl- Montgomery, AL

Marshall vs Buffalo- Each of these teams ended their regular seasons with upset losses in their respective conference championship games, so both are looking for redemption in their bowl game.  The Bulls have the better offense, averaging 47.8 ppg, with a high of 70 and a low of 28 (in the MACCG).  The Thundering Herd has the better defense, allowing an average of 12.6 ppg, with a high of 22 and a low of 0.  The magic number appears to be 20: both times Marshall allowed 20+ points, they lost, so if Buffalo can get to 20, they have a great chance to win.  I was surprised to learn that these teams had met 9 times previously, dating to their 1st meeting in 1959, a 37-12 Buffalo win.  However, Marshall has won the 8 games since then, stretching from 1963-2004, so they haven't met in 16 years.  I expect Marshall to bounce back and win a low scoring contest.

Cure Bowl- Orlando, FL

Liberty vs Coastal Carolina- These teams were scheduled to meet on Dec 5, but the Flames had to cancel, and the Chanticleers scheduled BYU instead (on less than a week's notice!).  This is a series that dates back to both team's FCS days, as they have met 14 times previously, and the series is tied at 7 wins apiece.  Independents were 4-2 against SBC teams this year, but that was 2 of their 7 losses (4 by UMass).  Liberty's lone loss was by 1 point to NC State, and they were 3-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.  CCU was 3-0 in games decided by 1 score.  Liberty hasn't played since Nov 27, and CCU's appearance in the SBCCG was cancelled.  The Flames are 1-0 in bowl games; this will be CCU's 1st appearance in a bowl.  This should be a great game, but CCU pulls out a close one.

First Responder Bowl- Dallas, TX

Louisiana vs UTSA- This will be the 1st ever meeting between these teams.  The Roadrunners had a fantastic season, finishing at 7-4 and earning their 2nd ever bowl bid- they're 0-1.  The Ragin' Cajuns had an even more fantastic season, going 9-1, but unfortunately had to settle for sharing the SBC title, as the CG was cancelled, so they didn't get their chance at revenge against CCU.  The Sun Belt and CUSA were 5-5 in contests against each other this year, and I think it is fair to say the SBC has, at the very least, caught up with CUSA as an overall conference.  UTSA comes into this game on a 3-game winning streak, having won 4 of 5, but the Cajuns have won 6 in a row, and 20 of their last 23.  Louisiana is 5-2/3-2 in bowl games.  Louisiana wins.

Lending Tree Bowl- Mobile, AL

WKU vs Georgia State- This is yet another bowl featuring these 2 conferences against each other.  This will be the 3rd meeting between these teams, with each having won once, but it will be the 2nd meeting in a bowl game, GSU winning 27-17 in the 2017 Cure Bowl.  The Panthers are 1-2 in bowls and the Hilltoppers are 4-2/4-1.  I expect another close game, but the Panthers will prevail.

Cheez-It Bowl- Orlando, FL

Oklahoma State vs Miami, FL- Both of these teams had high hopes, and started the season looking like they would challenge for a conference championship, but the Hurricanes got blown out by Clemson and North Carolina, and the Cowboys lost 3 of their last 5 games.  I doubt either of these teams will be terribly motivated in this game, so it could be sloppy, but you never know.  If it's close, I like Miami's chances.  If it's a rout, I would expect it to be in OSU's favor.  The Cowboys are 19-11/4-1 in bowl games and the Canes are 19-22/1-4.  The one time these 2 teams met, in 1991, Miami won 40-3.  I haven't really believed in either of these teams this year, but I think Miami fights back after their embarrassment against UNC.  Canes win.

Alamo Bowl- San Antonio, TX

Texas vs Colorado- These teams are old Big 12 rivals, so they have met 18 times, with Texas winning 11 and Colorado 7.  UT has won 5 straight in the series, and 7 of 8, but the lone loss in that streak was in the 2001 Big 12 CG.  They 1st played in 1940.  The Buffaloes weren't expected to do much this year, with most magazines pegging them for last in the PAC 12 South, but they won their 1st 4 games and finished 4-1.  The Buffs are 12-17/1-4 in bowl games.  The Longhorns were expected to challenge for a Big 12 title (isn't that the unfulfilled expectation every year?), but instead finished 6-3 and in 4th place.  The Horns are 30-24-2/3-2, having won their last 3.  This is another game where I'm not sure of motivation, but I think the Buffs are trying to show they are legitimate.  Colorado wins.

Duke's Mayo Bowl- Charlotte, NC

Wake Forest vs Wisconsin- This will be the 1st matchup between these 2 teams.  The Demon Deacons began their season with 2 losses, won 4 straight, then lost their last 2.  Offensively, they are capable of scoring in bunches, but were held to 23 or less 3 times.  Defensively, the Deacons allowed 37 or more in half of their games.  WF is 9-5/3-2 in bowl games.  The Badgers started the season as an offensive and defensive juggernaut.  Their defense has continued to excel, but they the 20 they scored against Minnesota in their last game (plus OT) was equal to what they scored in their previous 3 games combined.  At 3-3, they were a huge disappointment to their fans.  I expect a low scoring game, with UW scoring just enough to win, and perhaps shutting out WF.

Music City Bowl- Nashville, TN

Iowa vs Missouri- The Tigers lead the series 7-6, and have won 3 of the last 4, but Iowa won the most recent matchup, 27-24 in the 2010 Insight Bowl.  The Hawkeyes lost their 1st 2 games by a combined 5 points, then reeled off 6 straight victories.  Mizzou also started with 2 losses, then went 5-3 the rest of the way, though they lost their last game to 2-7 (at the time) Miss State.  Missouri is 15-18/3-2 in bowl games and the Hawkeyes are 17-15-1/3-2.  This could be a close game, but I doubt it.  I usually go with SEC teams in bowl games, but this year, the SEC is sending so many mediocre (or worse) teams.  Iowa wins.

Cotton Bowl- Arlington, TX

Oklahoma vs Florida- The Sooners overcame early struggles to turn in a very fine season, winning the Big 12 CG, and their defense looks much improved, allowing only 21.9 ppg, but only 16.5 over their last 6 games.  They will face a severe challenge against the Gators and their offense, as they are averaging 41.6 ppg with a low of 31.  For a change of pace, the UF defense has allowed 28+ in more than half of their games, and the OU offense is as explosive as always.  Florida is 1-0 against Oklahoma, having beaten them 24-14 in the 2009 BCS Championship game.  The Gators are 24-21/4-1 in bowls, and the Sooners are 29-23-1/1-4.  This is one of the better matchups all bowl season.  I'll take the hot Oklahoma team over Florida.

That's all for today!  Feel free to leave a comment, follow me on Twitter (@pbanderson), or subscribe to this blog.  Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!