College Football Preview Part IX
Welcome back!
Starting July 19 and continuing each weekday through August 6, I will preview all 130 FBS teams in order from #130 to #1. These are my own Power Rankings, using a formula I devised. This is where the teams stand now, and not their predicted finish. I will update these Power Rankings each Tuesday throughout the season based on the results that week.
Beginning August 9 and continuing through August 20, I will preview each conference, one per weekday, with predicted order of finish, predicted division and conference champions, key games, etc.
Below, you will not find in-depth previews- there are plenty of places to find that kind of preview. Instead, you will find stats and info that I feel are interesting. As a reader, I assume that you are a little more than a casual fan, which means you understand basic abbreviations such as TO for turnover, TFL for tackles for loss, etc. None of the abbreviations I use are made up by me; all are pretty standard across college football. However, if I use one you're not sure about, feel free to ask in the comments. I do want to point out a few oddities, for lack of a better word, about these previews.
First, the numbers for returning starters can be disputed, and are likely wrong, as they can change daily, based on the source, injuries, transfers, etc. Take these with a grain of salt, but they do give you a ballpark figure of the experience returning. Also, the NCAA granted everyone an extra year of eligibility, and MANY students took advantage of this, so there are lots of teams with 16-20 starters returning, much more than usual.
Second, the pandemic created unusual schedules for the 2020 season. Alabama played 13 games. Ohio and Miami, Ohio played only 3 games each. All the other teams played anywhere from 4-12 games. Except for New Mexico State, Old Dominion, and UConn, who didn't play any games, which means finishing 127th in any stat is last place.
Lastly, the SEC, Big Ten, PAC 12, and MAC played conference only schedules. Notre Dame played as part of the ACC.
What all this means is that you have to look deeper when comparing stats. For those playing conference only schedules, where they placed in the conference may be more meaningful than where they placed nationally, as their schedule was probably tougher. Teams that played fewer games could have their stats skewed by one horrendous (or one tremendous) statistical game. In other words, more so than in past years, we aren't comparing apples to apples here. However, I included them because I find stats fascinating, and because I think my readers are intelligent enough to draw their own conclusions.
And now, on with the previews!
(Note: record listed is from 2020, not their projected record)
50 Missouri Tigers (5-5)
Coach: Eliah
Drinkwitz (3rd overall/2nd here)
3-year
record/rank: 19-16/.5429/T62nd
6-year
record/rank: 35-37/.4861/78th
10-year
record/rank: 71-54/.5680/T53rd
A good
season means… a 2nd straight 3rd place finish in the SEC
East (or better), and at least 7 or 8 wins, as their OOC schedule- vs Central Michigan, vs
FCS SE Missouri St, @ Boston College, vs North Texas- isn’t overly difficult,
and their division crossover games are Texas A&M and @Arkansas (their
annual game).
A
disappointing season means… only 6 wins (or less) and a drop to 4th
place in the division- or lower.
Notes: Last
league title: 1969 Big Eight Co-champs; Last bowl: 2018 Liberty Bowl (’20 Music
City Bowl vs Iowa was canceled); avg margin of defeat in their 5 losses was 24
pts; P Grant McKinniss (43.1-yd avg) and K Harrison Mevis (17-20 FGs) return;
defense allowed 6.7% of pass plays to go for 30+ yds (13th SEC);
with only 5 fumble recoveries and 4 INTs, defense averaged 74.3 plays between
TOs (108th FBS, worst in SEC); offense needed an average of 42.1
passes per TD pass (121st FBS, worst SEC); 13 starters return (7
Off, 6 Def); Offense: Scoring 26.7 ppg- 78th/7th SEC,
Rushing 135.2 ypg- 91st/10th, Passing 266.8 ypg- 32nd/6th,
Total 402.0 ypg- 59th/7th; Defense: Scoring 32.3 ppg- 85th/9th,
Rushing 162.2 ypg- 61st/7th, Passing 245.8 ypg- 84th/5th,
Total 408.0 ypg- 66th/8th; TO Margin -0.50/game- 97th/10th.
49 San Diego State Aztecs (4-4)
Coach: Brady
Hoke (15th overall/4th here/2nd yr back)
3-year
record/rank: 21-13/.6176/40th
6-year
record/rank: 53-22/.7067/T12th
10-year
record/rank: 85-42/.6693/16th
A good
season means… at least 7 or 8 wins and challenging for the MWC West division
title. Their OOC slate is challenging-
vs New Mexico St, @Arizona, vs Utah, vs FCS Towson- so coming out of that with
a 2-2 record will set them up nicely to go at least 5-3 in the MWC. Their most
challenging games will be @SJSU, @Air Force, @Hawaii, and Nevada and Boise St
at home.
A
disappointing season means… another .500 season (or worse), and maybe shut out
of a bowl for a 2nd straight season.
Notes:
Last league title: 2016; Last bowl: 2019 New Mexico Bowl; the Aztecs lost 3 of
their last 4, all on the road; P will be new, but Matt Araiza (10-14 FGs) returns
as K; defense allowed a TD on just 15.2% of opponents’ drives (4th
FBS, 1st in MWC); 14 starters return (5 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring
24.6 ppg- 93rd/7th MWC, Rushing 199.4 ypg- 32nd/3rd,
Passing 151.4 ypg- 115th/10th, Total 350.8 ypg- 97th/8th;
Defense: Scoring 17.8 ppg- 11th/2nd, Rushing 98.2 ypg- 7th/1st,
Passing 185.2 ypg- 14th/2nd, Total 283.5 ypg- 3rd/1st;
TO Margin +0.25/game- 47th/3rd.
48 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (11-1)
Coach: Jamey
Chadwell (4th overall/4th here)
3-year
record/rank: 21-15/.5833/48th
6-year
record/rank: 24-24/.5000/T73rd (4 years)
10-year
record/rank: N/A
A good
season means… a return to the SBCCG by winning the SBC East, but it won’t be
easy, as they travel to Arkansas St and App St, as well as Ga Southern. Their OOC schedule is manageable- vs FCS The
Citadel, vs Kansas, @Buffalo, vs UMass, so if they can win 2 of those 3 away
games (they only have 5 all season), then they could equal last year’s 11 wins
in just the regular season.
A
disappointing season means… a 2nd place (or lower) finish in the SBC
East, and 8 wins or less.
Notes: Last
league title: 2020 Co-champs; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; P Charles
Ouverson (40.5-yd avg) and K Massimo Biscardi (11-13 FGs) return; 19 starters
return (9 Off, 10 Def); Offense: Scoring 37.2 ppg- 18th/1st
SBC, Rushing 218.3 ypg- 15th/3rd, Passing 231.5 ypg- 60th/5th,
Total 449.8 ypg- 25th/3rd; Defense: Scoring 20.2 ppg- 19th/2nd,
Rushing 147.7 ypg- 47th/3rd, Passing 204.2 ypg- 32nd/3rd,
Total 351.9 ypg- 31st/3rd; TO Margin +1.08/game- 9th/1st;
only loss was in OT to Liberty in the Cure Bowl; the 11 victories in ’20 almost matched the 13
victories from the previous 3 years combined (CCU has only been an FBS program
for 4 years); CCU was the first 10-0 team in SBC history, the highest ranked
SBC team ever, and the least penalized team in FBS.
47 Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-7)
Coach: Mike
Leach (20th overall/2nd here)
3-year
record/rank: 18-19/.4865/74th
6-year
record/rank: 42-34/.5526/T56th
10-year
record/rank: 74-54/.5781/49th
A good
season means… the Bulldogs find some offensive consistency and are able to get
to 6+ wins. Their OOC schedule is
conducive to 3 or 4 wins- vs La Tech, vs NC State, @Memphis, vs FCS Tennessee
St, so only 2 or 3 SEC wins are necessary to achieve that, unless they go 2-2,
in which case a 4-4 SEC record would be necessary. The crossover games are @Vandy and vs
Kentucky.
A
disappointing season means… a 3rd straight losing season, and a
possible end to their 11-year bowl streak.
Notes:
Last league title: 1941; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2009; offense gave up 34
sacks and had 18 INTs, both worst in the SEC; the Bulldogs won their last 2
games of ’20; P Tucker Day (42.9-yd avg) and K Brandon Ruiz (10-12 FGs) return;
13.8% of TDs were scored by the defense (highest in FBS); offense averaged only
30.4 plays between turnovers (120th FBS, worst in SEC); 16 starters
return (8 Off, 8 Def); Offense: Scoring 21.4 ppg- 109th/13th
SEC, Rushing 43.9 ypg- 127th/14th, Passing 296.3 ypg- 20th/5th,
Total 340.2 ypg- 104th/12; Defense: Scoring 28.1 ppg- 58th/6th,
Rushing 126.4 ypg- 23rd/4th, Passing 263.4 ypg- 105th/10th,
Total 389.7 ypg- 52nd/5th; TO Margin -0.64/game- 109th/13th;
3 of 7 losses were by 7 pts each.
46 UAB Blazers (6-3)
Coach: Bill
Clark (6th overall/6th here)
3-year
record/rank: 26-11/.7027/19th
6-year
record/rank: 34-16/.6800/20th (4 years)
10-year
record/rank: 48-50/.4898/72nd (8 years)
A good
season means… a 2nd consecutive CUSA championship, a 4th consecutive
CUSA West championship, and a 5th consecutive bowl eligible season.
Their OOC schedule is tough- vs FCS Jacksonville St in Montgomery, @Georgia,
@Tulane, vs Liberty- so 10 regular season wins would be their ceiling, but
that’s assuming they go 8-0 in CUSA, which may not be realistic. 8 or 9 wins
seems the best bet.
A
disappointing season means… 7 wins or less, and a 2nd place (or
worse) finish in the CUSA West.
Notes:
last league title: 2020; Last bowl: 2019 (Gasparilla Bowl vs South Carolina in
’20 was canceled); 2 of their 3 losses were by a combined 7 pts (1 in 2 OT), and
the other was to Miami, Fl; P Kyle Greenwell (42.6-yd avg) and K Matt Quinn
(11-12 FGs) return; defense surrendered an explosive play on only 1.96% of
opposing snaps (9th FBS, 2nd CUSA); 16 starters return (7
Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 28.4 ppg- 65th/3rd CUSA,
Rushing 200.0 ypg- 29th/3rd, Passing 201.3 ypg- 88th/9th,
Total 401.3 ypg- 60th/3rd; Defense: Scoring 21.4 ppg- 26th/4th,
Rushing 137.9ypg- 35th/2nd, Passing 173.2 ypg- 7th/1st,
Total 311.1 ypg- 7th/2nd; TO Margin -0.22/game- 78th/8th;
the Blazers open ’21 with 4 straight road games before opening their new
stadium (no longer using Birmingham’s Legion Field).
45 Ole Miss Rebels (5-5)
Coach: Lane
Kiffin (10th overall/2nd here)
3-year
record/rank: 14-20/.4118/T93rd
6-year
record/rank: 35-36/.4929/76th
10-year
record/rank: 61-61/.5000/68th
A good
season means… a winning record for the 1st time since 2015, and a
winning SEC record for the 1st time since the same year, and a 4th
place (or better) finish in the division. The Rebels have a great chance to
meet all these goals, as their OOC games- vs Louisville in Atlanta, vs FCS
Austin Peay, vs Tulane, and vs Liberty- and their SEC crossover games-
@Tennessee, vs Vanderbilt- are all “winnable”.
Add in a home game vs Arkansas and road games at Miss St and Auburn, and
you have the recipe for a possible 9-win season. All they need is for the offense to maintain
their high-scoring ways, and for their defense to just be mediocre.
A
disappointing season means… their defense doesn’t improve, injuries on offense
take their toll, and Ole Miss stumbles to a 5-7, 6-6, or 7-5 season.
Notes:
Last league title: 1963; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; the Rebels won 4 of
their last 5 games, but only Indiana had a winning record; their last 2 losses
were by 7 pts or less; P Mac Brown (46.6-yd avg) returns, but K will be new; Ole
Miss averaged 21.0 pts/game after halftime (tied with Buffalo for best in FBS);
offense scored TDs on 42.1% of drives (8th FBS, 2nd SEC);
15 starters return (8 Off, 7 Def); Offense: Scoring 39.2 ppg- 14th/3rd
SEC, Rushing 210.6 ypg- 26th/1st, Passing 344.9 ypg- 7th/3rd,
Total 555.5 ypg- 3rd/1st; Defense: Scoring 38.3 ppg- 117th/14th,
Rushing 206.9 ypg- 101st/14th, Passing 312.1 ypg- 125th/13th,
Total 519.0 ypg- 126th/14th; TO Margin -0.50/game- 97th/10th;
the Rebs are the only original SEC West team not to make it to the SECCG.
44 Pittsburgh Panthers (6-5)
Coach: Pat
Narduzzi (7th overall/7th here)
3-year
record/rank: 21-17/.5526/59th
6-year
record/rank: 42-34/.5526/T56th
10-year
record/rank: 67-61/.5234/62nd
A good season
means… 8+ wins, which means they must go at least 3-1 in OOC- vs UMass,
@Tennessee, vs Western Michigan, vs FCS New Hampshire- and then 5-3 in the ACC
(or 4-0 and 4-4). They get Clemson, Miami, and UNC at home, which means most of
their “winnable” games are on the road.
A
disappointing season means… yet another 5-loss season, or worse.
Notes:
Last league title: 2010 Big East Co-champs; Last bowl: 2019 Quick Lane Bowl;
the Panthers won 3 of their last 4; P Kirk Christodoulou (44.7-yd avg) returns,
but K will be new; defense allowed only 3.0 pts/game in the 4th
quarter (best in ACC); defense had 111 TFL, had a TFL on 14.5% of plays, and a
TFL on 19.0% of run plays, all best in FBS; defense also led FBS with a 22.4%
havoc rate (forced fumble, INT, TFL, PBU); 13 starters return (7 Off, 6 Def);
Offense: Scoring 29.0 ppg- 58th/10th ACC, Rushing 119.9 ypg- 111th/13th,
Passing 259.7 ypg- 39th/8th, Total 379.6 ypg- 79th/13th;
Defense: Scoring 24.5 ppg- 37th/3rd, Rushing 93.5ypg- 3rd/1st,
Passing 246.0 ypg- 85th/8th, Total 339.5 ypg- 20th/2nd;
TO Margin +0.36/game- 38th/5th; Pitt has had 11 consecutive
seasons with 5 losses or more (last 8 as members of ACC).
43 Kentucky Wildcats (5-6)
Coach: Mark
Stoops (9th overall/9th here)
3-year
record/rank: 23-14/.6216/T36th
6-year
record/rank: 42-33/.5600/55th
10-year
record/rank: 56-67/.4553/86th
A good
season means… 8+ wins and a 3rd place finish (or better!) in the SEC
East. Their OOC schedule is, shall we say, somewhat less than challenging- vs
ULM, vs FCS Chattanooga, vs New Mexico State, and their annual game
@Louisville- so a 4-0 record is a strong possibility. Win 4 SEC games, and they have their 8 wins. Their crossover games are LSU at
home and Miss State on the road, so if they can win 1 of those, they will only
need to win 3 of their remaining 6 games against their division foes, which is
doable. Pull an upset or 2? Then 9 or 10
wins is a possibility. The key is
whether they have an offense to match their almost always good defense.
A
disappointing season means… 6 or less wins, as, except for last year’s SEC only
schedule, they have established a standard of getting to 7 wins, at least.
Notes:
Last league title: 1976 Co-champs; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2015; 2020 was
1st losing season since 2015; P will be new, but K Matt Ruffolo
(12-14 FGs) returns; offense averaged 30.1 seconds between plays, slowest in
the SEC; only 1.54% of pass plays by the offense went for 30+ yds (122nd
FBS, worst in SEC); defense forced a TO on 17.5% of opponents’ possessions (10th
FBS, best in SEC); 9 starters return (5 Off, 4 Def); Offense: Scoring 21.8 ppg-
107th/11th SEC, Rushing 196.5 ypg- 34th/3rd,
Passing 121.5 ypg- 122nd/14th, Total 318.0 ypg- 115th/14th;
Defense: Scoring 25.9 ppg- 45th/5th, Rushing 156.1 ypg-
53rd/6th, Passing 224.6 ypg- 54th/1st,
Total 380.7 ypg- 45th/4th; TO Margin +0.91/game- 13th/1st;
defense ranked last in SEC in sacks/game.
42 Liberty Flames (10-1)
Coach: Hugh
Freeze (9th overall/3rd here)
3-year
record/rank: 24-12/.6667/T24th
6-year
record/rank: N/A
10-year
record/rank: N/A
A good
season means… another winning season, but it may be difficult to duplicate last
year’s 10 wins- possible stumbling blocks are @Syracuse, @UAB, @Ole Miss, vs
Louisiana, and vs Army.
A
disappointing season means… a drop back down to 6-8 wins.
Notes: Last
league title: 2014 Big South Co-champs; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2018; the
Flames were 2 points short of being undefeated in ’20, losing by 1 to NC State;
P Aiden Alves (41.8-yd avg) and K Alex Barbir (13-20 FGs, 2 GW FGs) both
return; offense gained 10+ yds on 20.0% of rushing attempts (3rd
FBS); 20 starters return (10 Off, 10 Def); Offense: Scoring 38.2 ppg- 16th,
Rushing 252.4 ypg- 9th, Passing 230.4 ypg- 63rd, Total
482.7 ypg- 15th; Defense: Scoring 20.5 ppg- 22nd, Rushing
132.8 ypg- 29th, Passing 184.9 ypg- 12th, Total 317.7 ypg- 11th;
TO Margin +0.09/game- 57th.
41 Virginia Tech Hokies (5-6)
Coach: Justin
Fuente (10th overall/6th here)
3-year
record/rank: 19-18/.5135/72nd
6-year
record/rank: 45-32/.5844/46th
10-year
record/rank: 78-52/.6000/42nd
A good
season means… a return to 8+ wins, a return to bowl eligibility, and a return
to 4th place or higher in the Coastal division. They will need to go at least 2-2 in their
OOC games- vs Middle Tennessee, @West Virginia, vs FCS Richmond, vs Notre Dame-
but 3-1 would be better. Their cross division games are vs Syracuse and @Boston
College, so 1-1 in those is the lowest possible outcome (barring a disaster of
a season), so they would need 3-5 wins within their division, which may be a
big ask. Their best bet would be to go 3-1
OOC, and 2-0 cross-division, and then only need to go 3-3 or better within
their division.
A
disappointing season means… 6 wins or less, finishing 5th or lower
in the Coastal, and HC Fuentes firmly on the hot seat.
Notes:
Last league title: 2010; Last bowl: 2019 Belk Bowl; the Hokies lost 4 of their
last 5 games, 3 of them at home; P and K will both be new; offense converted 4
two-point tries; offense had 5.1% of plays go for 30+ yds (5th FBS,
best in ACC); offense had explosive play rate of 15.4% (2nd FBS, 2nd
ACC); 14 starters return (6 Off, 8 Def); Offense: Scoring 31.1 ppg- 43rd/6th
ACC, Rushing 240.1 ypg- 10th/1st, Passing 200.6 ypg- 89th/12th,
Total 440.7 ypg- 31st/6th; Defense: Scoring 32.1 ppg- 82nd-10th,
Rushing 181.5 ypg- 85th/10th, Passing 266.0 ypg- 107th/13th,
Total 447.5 ypg- 103rd/12th; TO Margin +0.27/game- 45th/7th;
special teams had 3 muffed punts that led to TOs.
Come back tomorrow as I continue my countdown to #1. And check out my previous previews.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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