College Football Preview Part VI

Welcome back!

Starting July 19 and continuing each weekday through August 6, I will preview all 130 FBS teams in order from #130 to #1.  These are my own Power Rankings, using a formula I devised.  This is where the teams stand now, and not their predicted finish.  I will update these Power Rankings each Tuesday throughout the season based on the results that week.

Beginning August 9 and continuing through August 20, I will preview each conference, one per weekday, with predicted order of finish, predicted division and conference champions, key games, etc. 

Below, you will not find in-depth previews- there are plenty of places to find that kind of preview.  Instead, you will find stats and info that I feel are interesting.  As a reader, I assume that you are a little more than a casual fan, which means you understand basic abbreviations such as TO for turnover, TFL for tackles for loss, etc.  None of the abbreviations I use are made up by me; all are pretty standard across college football.  However, if I use one you're not sure about, feel free to ask in the comments. I do want to point out a few oddities, for lack of a better word, about these previews.

First, the numbers for returning starters can be disputed, and are likely wrong, as they can change daily, based on the source, injuries, transfers, etc.  Take these with a grain of salt, but they do give you a ballpark figure of the experience returning.  Also, the NCAA granted everyone an extra year of eligibility, and MANY students took advantage of this, so there are lots of teams with 16-20 starters returning, much more than usual. 

Second, the pandemic created unusual schedules for the 2020 season.  Alabama played 13 games. Ohio and Miami, Ohio played only 3 games each.  All the other teams played anywhere from 4-12 games. Except for New Mexico State, Old Dominion, and UConn, who didn't play any games, which means finishing 127th in any stat is last place.

Lastly, the SEC, Big Ten, PAC 12, and MAC played conference only schedules.  Notre Dame played as part of the ACC.  

What all this means is that you have to look deeper when comparing stats.  For those playing conference only schedules, where they placed in the conference may be more meaningful than where they placed nationally, as their schedule was probably tougher.  Teams that played fewer games could have their stats skewed by one horrendous (or one tremendous) statistical game. In other words, more so than in past years, we aren't comparing apples to apples here.  However, I included them because I find stats fascinating, and because I think my readers are intelligent enough to draw their own conclusions.

And now, on with the previews!

(Note: record listed is from 2020, not their projected record)

80 Ball State Cardinals (7-1)

Coach: Mike Neu (6^th overall/6^th here)

3-year record/rank: 16-16/.5000/73rd

6-year record/rank: 25-43/.3676/106th

10-year record/rank: 55-63/.4661/77th

A good season means… a return to the MAC championship game by winning the MAC West, but they play Western Michigan on the road (Toledo at home).  Their cross-division games are Miami, Buffalo, and @Akron.  Their OOC games are challenging, as they play FCS Western Illinois, @Penn State, @Wyoming, and vs Army, so more than 8 or 9 wins may be a stretch.

A disappointing season means… a slip back to 5 to 7 wins and a 4^th place or lower finish in the MAC West.

Notes: Last league title: 2020; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; offense allowed 28 sacks in just 8 games; P Nathan Snyder (43.6-yd avg) and K Jacob Lewis (2-3 FGs in limited duty) return; 17 starters return (8 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 34.2 ppg- 25^th/6^th MAC, Rushing 178.0 ypg- 51^st/7^th, Passing 269.2 ypg- 31^st/5^th, Total 447.2 ypg- 27^th/5^th; Defense: Scoring 25.8 ppg- 43^rd/4^th, Rushing 136.2 ypg- 31^st/4^th, Passing 293.6 ypg- 118^th/11^th, Total 429.9 ypg- 84^th/9^th; TO Margin +1.12/game- 6^th/2^nd; defense led the MAC with 10 INTs; bowl victory over SJSU in the Arizona Bowl was the 1^st bowl win in 8 tries for the Cardinals; last year was 1^st MAC title since 1996, and 1^st ever finish in the AP Top 25; BS is on a 7-game winning streak.

79 Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-6)

Coach: Matt Wells (9^th overall/3^rd here)

3-year record/rank: 13-21/.3823/101st

6-year record/rank: 31-41/.4306/T95th

10-year record/rank: 56-66/.4590/82nd

A good season means… the defense is at least adequate and allows the offense a chance to breath.  With an OOC schedule that includes games vs Houston (at NRG Stadium), vs FCS Stephen F Austin, and vs FIU, the Red Raiders only need to win 3 or 4 of their 9 conference games to secure bowl eligibility, which should be enough to secure HC Wells’ job security for at least another year.  An upset or 2, and TT could challenge for a championship game berth, but don’t count on it.

A disappointing season means… the defense doesn’t improve, the offense has to score virtually every time it has the ball, and the Red Raiders go 1-2 OOC and only win 2-3 Big 12 games. 

Notes: Last league title: 1994 Southwest Conference Co-champs; Last bowl: 2017 Birmingham Bowl; starting QB could be Oregon transfer Tyler Shough; P Austin McNamara (46.3-yd avg, longest punt in school history- 87 yds) and K Jonathan Garibay (8-11 FGs) return; 3 of 6 losses were by 10 pts or less, and 2 were by 7 pts or less (1 in OT); 15 starters return (7 Off, 8 Def); Offense: Scoring 29.1 ppg- 57^th/6^th Big12, Rushing 162.8 ypg- 64^th/6^th, Passing 266.7 ypg- 33^rd/4^th, Total 429.5 ypg- 38^th/4^th; Defense: Scoring 36.7 ppg- 108^th/9^th, Rushing 186.4 ypg- 89^th/9^th, Passing 258.5 ypg- 101^st/8^th, Total 444.9 ypg- 99^th/9^th; TO Margin -0.90/game- 116^th/10^th; the Red Raiders won 2 of their last 3 games in ’20; the Red Raiders have not had a winning record in the Big 12 since 2009.

 

78 Ohio Bobcats (2-1)

Coach: Tim Albin (1st overall/1^st here)

3-year record/rank: 18-11/.6207/39th

6-year record/rank: 43-26/.6232/32nd

10-year record/rank: 75-46/.6198/34th

A good season means… finally achieving their first MAC title since 1968.  Anything less will be disappointing.  However, the MAC schedule sets up well for them- Kent St, Miami, and Toledo are all at home, and their toughest road games are at Buffalo and Eastern Michigan.  If they run the table in the MAC, their ceiling is likely 9 or 10 wins, as they play vs Syracuse, vs FCS Duquesne, @Louisiana, and @Northwestern OOC.

A disappointing season means… not winning the division, or losing in the MACCG yet again (they’re 0-4, losing by an average of 10 pts).

Notes: Last league title: 1968; Last bowl: 2019 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl; P Jack Wilson (36.9-yd avg) and K Tristian Vandenberg (2-6 FGs) return; only 5.4% of offensive possessions ended in a turnover (2 lost fumbles, no INTs- best in FBS); 14 starters return (7 Off, 7 Def); Offense: Scoring 34.3 ppg- 24^th/5^th MAC, Rushing 216.7 ypg- 18^th/4^th, Passing 146.0 ypg- 116^th/10^th, Total 362.7 ypg- 92^nd/10^th; Defense: Scoring 16.7 ppg- 7^th/1^st, Rushing 193.7 ypg- 94^th/8^th, Passing 195.3 ypg- 19^th/3^rd, Total 389.0 ypg- 51^st/3^rd; TO Margin +1.33/game- 2^nd/1^st; the Bobcats have not lost a MAC game by more than 8 pts since 2015; HC Albin is taking over after Frank Solich’s sudden retirement on July 14; I originally had the Bobcats at #57, but that changed with Solich’s retirement.

 

77 Tulane Green Wave (6-6)

Coach: Willie Fritz (8^th overall/6^th here)

3-year record/rank: 20-18/.5263/68th

6-year record/rank: 32-42/.4324/T93rd

10-year record/rank: 46-78/.3709/107th

A good season means… a 4^th straight bowl, and an upper half finish in the AAC, but they have to play all of the conference title contenders, 3 on the road.  Their OOC schedule is also tough- vs Oklahoma, vs FCS Morgan St, @Ole Miss, vs UAB, so getting to 6 or 7 wins could be a challenge.

A disappointing season means… a drop back to less than 6 wins for the 1^st time since 2017.

Notes: Last league title: 1998 CUSA; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2017; P Ryan Wright (45.2-yd avg) and K Merek Glover (9-15 FGs) return; the Green Wave lost 3 games on the final play; offense gained 10+ yds on 17.6% of plays (11^th FBS, best in AAC); 15 starters return (9 Off, 6 Def); Offense: Scoring 34.7 ppg- 22^nd/4^th AAC, Rushing 217.1 ypg- 17^th/1^st, Passing 176.7 ypg- 109^th/10^th, Total 393.8 ypg- 63^rd/8^th; Defense: Scoring 28.1 ppg- 57^th/4^th, Rushing 143.3 ypg- 42^nd/2^nd, Passing 278.7 ypg- 115^th/9^th, Total 422.0 ypg- 77^th/5^th; TO Margin +0.42/game- 37^th/4^th; the Green Wave won 4 of their last 5 in ’20.

 

76 Michigan State Spartans (2-5)

Coach: Mel Tucker (3^rd overall/2^nd here)

3-year record/rank: 16-17/.4848/76th

6-year record/rank: 41-31/.5694/T50th

10-year record/rank: 76-43/.6387/25th

A good season means… a return to bowl eligibility, but honestly, it will take some upsets to get there.  A better goal may be to go 2-1 in OOC games (vs FCS Youngstown St, @Miami, Fl, vs WKU) and then try to win 3-4 Big Ten games, with a win against one of your rivals, perhaps a 2^nd straight against Michigan at home.

A disappointing season means… a last place finish in the Big Ten East.

Notes: Last league title: 2015; Last bowl: 2019 Pinstripe Bowl; P Bryce Baringer (43.6-yd avg) and K Matt Coghlin (9-12 FGs) both return; offense gained 10+ yds on only 7.1% of rushing attempts (125^th FBS, worst in Big Ten); defense allowed 10+ yds on 9.3% of rushing attempts (10^th FBS, 4^th Big Ten); offense’s 19.6% turnover rate was 126^th FBS; 14 starters return (7 Off, 7 Def); Offense: Scoring 18.0 ppg- 116^th/14^th Big Ten, Rushing 91.4 ypg- 122^nd/13^th, Passing 238.9 ypg- 54^th/7^th, Total 330.3 ypg- 109^th/14^th; Defense: Scoring 35.1 ppg- 100^th/14^th, Rushing 157.3 ypg- 55^th/8^th, Passing 239.4 ypg- 72^nd/9^th, Total 396.7 ypg- 54^th/7^th; TO Margin -1.29/game- 121^st/12^th;

 

75 FAU Owls (5-4)

Coach: Willie Taggart (12^th overall/2^nd here)

3-year record/rank: 21-14/.6000/43rd

6-year record/rank: 38-35/.5205/T62nd

10-year record/rank: 51-70/.4215/97th

A good season means… winning the CUSA East division for the 2^nd time in 3 years, and perhaps the conference title for the 3^rd time in 5 years. However, they do face WKU and UAB on the road, and their OOC includes games @Florida and @Air Force.

A disappointing season means… finishing 3^rd or worse in the division, but bowl eligibility should be a given.

Notes: Last league title: 2018; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2014; P Matt Hayball (44.1-yd avg) returns, but K will be new; return game should be solid; the Owls ended ’20 on a 3-game losing streak (all away from home); defense allowed 1.45 pts/drive (led CUSA); 21 starters return (11 Off, 10 Def); Offense: Scoring 18.9 ppg- 115^th/13^th CUSA, Rushing 180.1 ypg- 48^th/4^th, Passing 144.4 ypg- 117^th/12^th, Total 324.6 ypg- 112^th/10^th; Defense: Scoring 17.4 ppg- 10^th/2^nd, Rushing 154.6 ypg- 51^st/5^th, Passing 187.7 ypg- 16^th/5^th, Total 342.2 ypg- 24^th/4^th; TO Margin 0.00/game- 60^th/5^th; FAU has a 6-game home winning streak, which will be on the line when they face Georgia Southern in their 2^nd game.

 

74 Wyoming Cowboys (2-4)

Coach: Craig Bohl (8^th overall/8^th here)

3-year record/rank: 16-15/.5161/69th

6-year record/rank: 34-36/.4857/T79th

10-year record/rank: 55-64/.4622/79th

A good season means… challenging for a MWC Mountain division title, but they must play Boise State on the blue turf, and their crossover games includes @SJSU.  Otherwise, their schedule is quite manageable, as their OOC schedule consists of games vs FCS Montana St, @Northern Illinois, vs Ball State, and @UConn.  If they can avoid being upset, they have a shot at 8-10 wins, if not more.

A disappointing season means… they never solve their offensive problems, they continue losing close games to lesser teams (ala Colo St and New Mexico in ’20), and they wind up with 5-7 wins.

Notes: Last league title: 1993 WAC Co-champs; Last bowl: 2019 Arizona Bowl; K John Hoyland (13-14 FGs, led the nation with 2.2 FGM/game, Freshman All-American) returns, but his long was only 42 yds; P will be new; all 4 losses were by 10 pts or less, and 2 were by a combined 4 points; defense allowed no 4^th down conversions (0-6), 1 of only 2 defenses in FBS to do so; 19 starters return (9 Off, 10 Def); Offense: Scoring 26.5 ppg- 82^nd/5^th MWC, Rushing 219.5 ypg- 14^th/2^nd, Passing 153.3 ypg- 113^th/9^th, Total 372.8 ypg- 82^nd/7^th; Defense: Scoring 21.0 ppg- 24^th/4^th, Rushing 125.3 ypg- 21^st/4^th, Passing 202.7 ypg- 29^th/4^th, Total 328.0 ypg- 16^th/3^rd; TO Margin +0.17/game- 54^th/6^th.

 

73 Georgia Southern Eagles (8-5)

Coach: Chad Lunsford (5^th overall/5^th here)

3-year record/rank: 25-14/.6410/30th

6-year record/rank: 41-35/.5395/59th

10-year record/rank: 50-38/.5682/52^nd (7 years)

A good season means… getting 8 wins again, as they are in the harder of the 2 Sun Belt divisions.  If they can somehow win 2 of their 4 OOC games- vs FCS Gardner-Webb, @FAU, @Arkansas, vs BYU, they have a chance to make some noise in the division, as they have Ga St, CCU, Arkansas St, and Louisiana at home, and most of their “winnable” games on the road- Troy, South Alabama, Texas St, and App State.

A disappointing season means… backsliding to 7 wins or less, and finishing in 4^th or 5^th place in the SBC West, plus 2^nd straight losses to rivals Georgia State and/or Appalachian State.

Notes: Last league title: 2014; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2017; The Eagles finished their season winning 2 of their last 3; 4 of their 5 losses were by 8 pts or less (a total of 17 pts); P Anthony Beck II (41.8-yd avg) and K Alex Raynor (18-25 FGs, long of 47) return; offense averaged 31.6 seconds between plays, slowest in FBS; 14 starters return (7 Off, 7 Def); Offense: Scoring 27.2 ppg- 72^nd/8^th SBC, Rushing 267.1 ypg- 5^th/1^st, Passing 104.2 ypg- 124^th/10; Total 371.2 ypg- 84^th/7^th; Defense: Scoring 20.8 ppg- 23^rd/3^rd, Rushing 112.2 ypg- 14^th/1^st, Passing 213.5 ypg- 40^th/4^th, Total 325.7 ypg- 14^th/1^st; TO Margin +0.69/game- 21^st/3^rd.

 

72 Western Michigan Broncos (4-2)

Coach: Tim Lester (5^th overall/5^th here)

3-year record/rank: 18-14/.5625/55th

6-year record/rank: 45-26/.6338/27th

10-year record/rank: 65-56/.5372/59th

A good season means… winning the MAC West and getting to the MACCG for the 1^st time since 2016. However, their OOC schedule is tough- @Michigan, vs FCS Illinois St, @Pitt, vs SJSU- and Toledo is on the road, but Ball St is at home, and Kent St is also at home while they miss Ohio from the East division. 

A disappointing season means… 7 wins or less, or, worse- losing a division title by a FG in the last game for the 3^rd consecutive year.

Notes: Last league title: 2016; Last bowl: 2019 First Responder Bowl; OL allowed only 7 sacks in 6 games; 2 losses were by a total of 14 pts; QB Kaleb Eleby was 3^rd in passing efficiency (behind 1^st round draft picks Mac Jones and Zach Wilson); P Nick Mihalic (42.6-yd avg) returns, as does K Thiago Kapps (4-7 FGs, 23-26 XPs); offense had 9.8% of pass plays go 30+ yds, best in FBS; 16 starters return (8 Off, 8 Def); Offense: Scoring 41.7 ppg- 9^th/3^rd MAC, Rushing 193.2 ypg- 41^st/5^th, Passing 286.5 ypg- 23^rd/3^rd, Total 479.7 ypg- 16^th/3^rd; Defense: Scoring 34.2 ppg- 94^th/7^th, Rushing 157.3 ypg- 56^th/5^th, Passing 242.3 ypg- 78^th/7^th, Total 399.7 ypg- 57^th/5^th; TO Margin -0.50/game- 97^th/8^th; defense only caused 3 TOs- 2 INTs and 1 fumble recovery.

 

71 Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (5-4)

Coach: Todd Graham (14^th overall/2^nd here)

3-year record/rank: 23-15/.6053/42nd

6-year record/rank: 36-41/.4675/86th

10-year record/rank: 50-78/.3906/105th

A good season means… challenging for the MWC West division title, and at least 6 wins.

A disappointing season means… falling to 4^th place or lower in the division and/or failing to qualify for a bowl.

Notes: Last league title: 2010 Co-champs; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2017; the Rainbow Warriors won 3 of their last 4 games, and their last 2 losses were by 8 pts to Boise St and 11 pts to eventual champion SJSU; P Adam Stack (43.4-yd avg) and K Matthew Shipley (8-14 FGs, but only 2-7 at 40+) both return; defense intercepted 4.3% of opponents’ passing attempts (9^th FBS, best in MWC); 18 starters return (8 Off, 10 Def); Offense: Scoring 26.2 ppg- 84^th/6^th MWC, Rushing 152.4 ypg- 76^th/5^th, Passing 231.4 ypg- 61^st/5^th, Total 383.9 ypg- 76^th/6^th; Defense: Scoring 27.6 ppg- 54^th/7^th, Rushing 211.7 ypg- 105^th/9^th, Passing 197.1 ypg- 21^st/3^rd, Total 408.8 ypg- 68^th/8^th; TO Margin +0.56/game- 29^th/2^nd; UH has 7 road games in ’21; they will play New Mexico State twice this year.

 

Come back tomorrow as I continue my countdown to #1.  And check out my previous previews.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!