College Football Preview Part VII

Welcome back!

Starting July 19 and continuing each weekday through August 6, I will preview all 130 FBS teams in order from #130 to #1.  These are my own Power Rankings, using a formula I devised.  This is where the teams stand now, and not their predicted finish.  I will update these Power Rankings each Tuesday throughout the season based on the results that week.

Beginning August 9 and continuing through August 20, I will preview each conference, one per weekday, with predicted order of finish, predicted division and conference champions, key games, etc. 

Below, you will not find in-depth previews- there are plenty of places to find that kind of preview.  Instead, you will find stats and info that I feel are interesting.  As a reader, I assume that you are a little more than a casual fan, which means you understand basic abbreviations such as TO for turnover, TFL for tackles for loss, etc.  None of the abbreviations I use are made up by me; all are pretty standard across college football.  However, if I use one you're not sure about, feel free to ask in the comments. I do want to point out a few oddities, for lack of a better word, about these previews.

First, the numbers for returning starters can be disputed, and are likely wrong, as they can change daily, based on the source, injuries, transfers, etc.  Take these with a grain of salt, but they do give you a ballpark figure of the experience returning.  Also, the NCAA granted everyone an extra year of eligibility, and MANY students took advantage of this, so there are lots of teams with 16-20 starters returning, much more than usual. 

Second, the pandemic created unusual schedules for the 2020 season.  Alabama played 13 games. Ohio and Miami, Ohio played only 3 games each.  All the other teams played anywhere from 4-12 games. Except for New Mexico State, Old Dominion, and UConn, who didn't play any games, which means finishing 127th in any stat is last place.

Lastly, the SEC, Big Ten, PAC 12, and MAC played conference only schedules.  Notre Dame played as part of the ACC.  

What all this means is that you have to look deeper when comparing stats.  For those playing conference only schedules, where they placed in the conference may be more meaningful than where they placed nationally, as their schedule was probably tougher.  Teams that played fewer games could have their stats skewed by one horrendous (or one tremendous) statistical game. In other words, more so than in past years, we aren't comparing apples to apples here.  However, I included them because I find stats fascinating, and because I think my readers are intelligent enough to draw their own conclusions.

And now, on with the previews!

(Note: record listed is from 2020, not their projected record)

70 Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-5)

Coach: Scott Frost (6^th overall/4^th here)

3-year record/rank: 12-20/.3750/T102nd

6-year record/rank: 31-39/.4429/90th

10-year record/rank: 68-55/.5528/56th

A good season means… Nebraska gets off to a good start @Illinois, vs FCS Fordham, and vs Buffalo, building momentum before facing Oklahoma in Norman, and then winning at least 3 of their next 5 (@Mich St, vs Northwestern, vs Michigan, @Minnesota, vs Purdue), before their brutal closing stretch- vs Ohio State, @Wisconsin, vs Iowa.  This would give them at least 6 wins- possibly 7 or 8- and bowl eligibility (and a winning season) for the 1^st time since 2016).

A disappointing season means… going 3-6 or worse in the Big Ten, finishing with their 5^th straight losing season, and perhaps putting HC Frost on the hot seat heading into 2022.

Notes: Last league title: 1999; Last bowl: 2016 Music City Bowl; P William Przystup (41.3-yd avg) and K Connor Culp (13-15 FGs) return; the Cornhuskers finished ’20 by winning 2 of their last 3, and their last 2 losses (to Iowa and Minnesota) were each by 7 pts or less; only 1.6% of completed passes went for 30+ yds (121^st FBS, 13^th Big Ten); defense averaged 80.9 plays between each of their 7 takeaways (114^th FBS, 12^th Big Ten); 18.95% of offensive drives ended in TOs (125^th FBS); 12 starters return (3 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 23.1 ppg- 101^st/12^th  Big Ten, Rushing 201.4 ypg- 28^th/2^nd, Passing 190.1 ypg- 103^rd/12^th, Total 391.5 ypg- 66^th/4^th; Defense: Scoring 29.4 ppg- 64^th/7^th, Rushing 169.5 ypg- 69^th/9^th, Passing 217.0 ypg- 45^th/7^th, Total 386.5 ypg- 50^th/6^th; TO Margin -1.38/game- 123^rd/13^th; 4 of last 5, and 6 of last 8 games are at home.

69 Tennessee Volunteers (3-7)

Coach: Josh Heupel (4^th overall/1^st here)

3-year record/rank: 16-19/.4571/85th

6-year record/rank: 38-35/.5205/T62nd

10-year record/rank: 60-62/.4918/71st

A good season means… 6+ wins and a bowl berth, as their OOC games are somewhat less than daunting: vs Bowling Green, vs Pitt, vs FCS Tenn Tech, vs South Alabama, so sweeping those 4 means that all they need is 2 SEC wins, and their home slate includes South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Vandy (as well as Georgia).  Can they do it?

A disappointing season means… another losing season, their 4^th in the last 5 years.

Notes: Last league title: 1998; Last bowl: 2016 Music City Bowl; UT lost 7 of their last 8 games, all by double digits; P Paxton Brooks (43.6-yd avg) returns, but K will be new; the Vols scored an average of 7.1 pts per game in the 2^nd half of games (122^nd FBS, worst in SEC); 7 starters return (2 Off, 5 Def); Offense: Scoring 21.5 ppg- 108^th/12^th SEC, Rushing 141.5 ypg- 84^th/9^th, Passing 204.7 ypg- 85^th/12^th, Total 346.2 ypg- 102^nd/11^th; Defense: Scoring 30.1 ppg- 69^th/7^th, Rushing 141.6 ypg- 41^st/5^th, Passing 265.8 ypg- 106^th/11^th, Total 407.4 ypg- 65^th/7^th; TO Margin -0.50/game- 97^th/10^th; HC Heupel is the 5^th new HC since 2008.

 

68 Fresno State Bulldogs (3-3)

Coach: Kalen DeBoer (2^nd overall/2^nd here)

3-year record/rank: 19-13/.5938/T46th

6-year record/rank: 33-37/.4714/83rd

10-year record/rank: 63-60/.5122/T63rd

A good season means… 6+ wins and bowl eligibility, but can they challenge for the West division title? While they play Nevada at home, they must travel to SJSU, SDSU and Hawaii, and their cross-division games include the top 2 out of the Mountain division- @Wyoming and vs Boise St.  In addition, their OOC games include @Oregon and @UCLA, so FS may need some upsets to get to 6 wins.

A disappointing season means… a 3^rd straight non-winning season (6-6 or worse).

Notes: Last league title: 2018; Last bowl: 2018 Las Vegas Bowl; OL allowed 4 sacks/game (124^th FBS); P Carson King (41.0-yd avg on just 4 punts) and K Cesar Silva (5-5, long of 35) offer limited experience; defense had a 12.4% sack rate (2^nd FBS, best in MWC), and were 3^rd FBS in sacks/game (4.17); 18 starters return (9 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 32.8 ppg- 36^th/2^nd MWC, Rushing 123.0 ypg- 106^th/10^th, Passing 326.3 ypg- 5^th/1^st, Total 479.3 ypg- 17^th/1^st; Defense: Scoring 30.0 ppg- 68^th/8^th, Rushing 212.3 ypg- 106^th/10^th, Passing 217.7 ypg- 46^th/6^th, Total 430.0 ypg- 85^th/9^th; TO Margin 0.00/game- 60^th/7^th; the Bulldogs have not had a KOR for a TD since 2008.

 

67 Louisville Cardinals (4-7)

Coach: Scott Satterfield (8^th overall/3^rd here)

3-year record/rank: 14-22/.3889/T98th

6-year record/rank: 39-36/.5200/T65th

10-year record/rank: 78-49/.6142/T38th

A good season means… a rebound to 7 or 8 wins and a top 4 finish in the Atlantic division.

A disappointing season means… continued struggles with turnovers and close losses, a 2^nd straight losing season (and 3^rd losing season in their last 4) and a bottom 3 finish in the division.

Notes: Last league title: 2012 Big East Co-champs; Last bowl: 2019 Music City Bowl; K James Turner  (13-15 FGs, 40-40 XPs) returns, but P will be new; offense was stopped behind the LOS on 12.7% of plays (124^th FBS, worst in ACC); 18.2% of offensive possessions ended in TOs (122^nd FBS, 14^th ACC); offense gained 10+ yds on 19.1% of rushing plays (4^th FBS, 2^nd ACC); 12 starters return (7 Off, 5 Def); Offense: Scoring 29.5 ppg- 55^th/9^th ACC, Rushing 200.0 ypg- 29^th/4^th, Passing 244.2 ypg- 48^th/9^th, Total 444.2 ypg- 29^th/5^th; Defense: Scoring 26.6 ppg- 49^th/4^th, Rushing 179.9 ypg- 80^th/9^th, Passing 189.2 ypg- 17^th/1^st, Total 369.1 ypg- 39^th/4^th; TO Margin -1.09/game- 119^th/14^th; 4 of 7 losses were by 7 pts or less.

 

66 Marshall Thundering Herd (7-3)

Coach: Charles Huff (1^st overall/1^st here)

3-year record/rank: 24-12/.6667/T24th

6-year record/rank: 45-29/.6081/T38th

10-year record/rank: 80-47/.6299/T28th

A good season means… winning the CUSA East, and perhaps the CG, but they have FAU on the road, and pull UAB from the other division.  Their ceiling may be 10 wins, as they play @Navy and @App St.

A disappointing season means… finishing with less than 8 wins, and 4^th or lower in the division.

Notes: Last league title: 2014; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2016; OL allowed only 12 sacks in 10 games; the Thundering Herd is on a 3-game losing streak after starting the year with 7 straight wins, but 2 of the losses were by 9 and 7 pts, and only 1 of the wins was by less than 11 pts; P Robert LeFevre (42.5-yd avg) and K Shane Ciucci (7-10 FGs) return; defense allowed TDs on just 12.1% of opponents’ drives (2^nd FBS, best in CUSA); 17 starters return (9 Off, 8 Def); Offense: Scoring 28.5 ppg- 63^rd/2^nd CUSA, Rushing 178.4 ypg- 50^th/5^th, Passing 212.9 ypg- 79^th/6^th, Total 391.3 ypg- 68^th/4^th; Defense: Scoring 13.0 ppg- 1^st/1^st; Rushing 95.5 ypg- 4^th/1^st; Passing 183.9 ypg- 11^th/3^rd, Total 279.4 ypg- 2^nd/1^st; TO Margin +0.30/game- 44^th/3^rd.

 

65 California Golden Bears (1-3)

Coach: Justin Wilcox (5^th overall/5^th here)

3-year record/rank: 16-14/.5333/66th

6-year record/rank: 34-33/.5075/70th

10-year record/rank: 50-66/.4310/94th

A good season means… bowl eligibility, and perhaps 7 or 8 wins.  A bonus would be defeating rival Stanford and finishing in the top 3 in the North division.

A disappointing season means… less than 6 wins (their OOC schedule- vs Nevada, @TCU, vs FCS Sacramento St could lead to a 1-2 start) and a 2^nd straight loss to Stanford.

Notes: Last league title: 2006 Co-champs; Last bowl: 2019 Redbox Bowl; offense averaged only 9.1 yds/completion (123^rd FBS); 2 of their 3 losses were by a combined 5 points; P Jamieson Sheahan (39.9-yd avg)  and K Dario Longhetto (4-5 FGs, 9-10 XPs) both return, but special teams play all around must improve, as breakdowns directly led to 2 losses; the Golden Bears scored an average of 6.8 pts in the 2^nd half (123^rd FBS, worst in PAC 12); only 16.4% of offensive plays went for 10+ yds (115^th FBS, last in PAC 12); defense allowed only 8.5% of opponents’ plays to gain 10+ yds (7^th FBS, best in PAC 12); 12 starters return (8 Off, 4 Def); Offense: Scoring 20.2 ppg- 110^th/11^th PAC12, Rushing 126.8 ypg- 101^st/11^th, Passing 192.8 ypg- 101^st/12^th, Total 319.5 ypg- 114^th/12^th; Defense: Scoring 26.5 ppg- 48^th/5^th, Rushing 169.2 ypg- 68^th/6^th, Passing 197.8 ypg- 23^rd/2^nd, Total 367.0 ypg- 38^th/3^rd; TO Margin 0.00/game- 60^th/5^th.

 

64 Colorado Buffaloes (4-2)

Coach: Karl Dorrell (7^th overall/2^nd here)

3-year record/rank: 14-16/.4667/83rd

6-year record/rank: 33-36/.4783/82nd

10-year record/rank: 43-75/.3644/111th

A good season means… 6+ wins, but can they get there? Their OOC games are tough- vs FCS Northern Colorado, vs Texas A&M in Denver, vs Minnesota- but their cross-divisional games are manageable- @Cal, @ Oregon, vs Oregon St, vs Washington.  If they can win 3 of those 7, then they would need to win 3 of their 5 division games to reach 6 wins.  They will definitely need an upset or 2. Maybe lightning will strike twice!

A disappointing season means… a 4^th losing season out of their last 5.

Notes: Last league title: 2001 Big 12; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; P Josh Watts (40.9-yd avg, 9-27 inside the 20) and K Evan Price (6-8 FGs, 16-16 XPs) return; 12 starters return (6 Off, 6 Def); Offense: Scoring 28.5 ppg- 63^rd/9^th PAC12, Rushing 212.3 ypg- 23^rd/3^rd, Passing 201.5 ypg- 87^th/10^th, Total 413.8 ypg- 48^th/5^th; Defense: Scoring 31.7 ppg- 77^th/8^th, Rushing 181.2 ypg- 84^th/8^th, Passing 239.2 ypg- 71^st/8^th, Total 420.3 ypg- 76^th/7^th; TO Margin -0.50/game- 97^th/9^th.

 

63 UCLA Bruins (3-4)

Coach: Chip Kelly (8^th overall/4^th here)

3-year record/rank: 10-21/.3226/110th

6-year record/rank: 28-41/.4058/100th

10-year record/rank: 63-60/.5122/T63rd

A good season means… 6+ wins and a bowl berth. A bonus would be their 1^st winning season since ’15.  A super bonus would be their 1^st winning record in the PAC 12 since that same year. However, their crossover games are @Stanford, @Washington, Oregon, and Cal, and their OOC games- vs Hawaii, vs LSU, vs Fresno St- even if all are at home, aren’t easy. 

A disappointing season means… their 6^th straight losing season, a bottom half finish in the PAC 12 South, and Chip Kelly firmly on the hot seat, especially if the wins only total 3 or 4.

Notes: Last league title: 1998; Last bowl: 2017 Cactus Bowl; all 4 losses were by 6 points or less (a combined 15 pts), but 2 wins were by 7 pts each; defense led PAC12 with 23 sacks (3.3/game); Luke Ayers (43.1-yd avg) and K Nicholas Barr-Mira (6-7 FGs, 30-31 XPs) return; 19 starters return (9 Off, 10 Def); Offense: Scoring 35.4 ppg- 20^th/2^nd PAC12, Rushing 230.6 ypg- 12^th/2^nd, Passing 224.4 ypg- 68^th/6^th, Total 455.0 ypg- 21^st/2^nd; Defense: Scoring 30.7 ppg- 73^rd/7^th, Rushing 135.7 ypg- 30^th/2^nd, Passing 274.1 ypg- 114^th/11^th, Total 409.9 ypg- 69^th/6^th; TO Margin -0.29/game- 83^rd/7^th.

 

62 Houston Cougars (3-5)

Coach: Dana Holgorsen (11^th overall/3^rd here)

3-year record/rank: 15-18/.4545/86th

6-year record/rank: 44-28/.6111/36th

10-year record/rank: 78-46/.6290/30th

A good season means… 8 wins or more, as they have 7 home games, and avoid UCF and Cincinnati. In addition, The Cougars face a , shall we say, undaunting OOC schedule- Texas Tech, @Rice, vs FCS Grambling, and closing the season @UConn.

A disappointing season means… a 3^rd straight losing season, especially with the schedule set up as it is.

Notes: Last league title: 2015; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; P Layne Wilkins (41.7-yd avg, -1.25 yds per return with 0 positive PR yds), and K Dalton Witherspoon (8-10 FGs with school record 53-yarder) return; Marcus Jones led FBS with 337 PR yds (AAC single-season record) and with 19.8-yd avg; 16 starters return (7 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 30.0 ppg- 53^rd/7^th AAC, Rushing 143.1 ypg- 83^rd/10^th, Passing 265.8 ypg- 34^th/4^th, Total 408.9 ypg- 55^th/6^th; Defense: Scoring 32.0 ppg- 80^th/7^th, Rushing 167.5 ypg- 66^th/5^th, Passing 231.0 ypg- 62^nd/6^th, Total 398.5 ypg- 55^th/4^th; TO Margin -1.25/game- 120^th/11^th.

 

61 Baylor Bears (2-7)

Coach: Dave Aranda (2^nd overall/2^nd here)

3-year record/rank: 20-16/.5556/T57th

6-year record/rank: 38-36/.5135/69th

10-year record/rank: 78-48/.6190/35th

A good season means… 6+ wins and bowl eligibility.  They should top last year’s 2 wins after their 1^st 3 games of the season- @Texas State, vs FCS Texas Southern, and @Kansas, so they just need to find 3 more wins, perhaps from their 6 remaining home games- Iowa St, WVU, BYU, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech.

A disappointing season means… their offense can’t get going and they stumble to their 2^nd straight losing season.

Notes: Last league title: 2014 Co-champs: Last bowl: 2019 Sugar Bowl; OL allowed 31 sacks in 9 games; 4 of 7 losses were by 10 points or less; P Isaac Power (40.3-yd avg) and K John Mayers (10-15 FGs) return, as does All-American Trestan Ebner (32.2-yd KOR avg, 2 TDs); offense was TFL on 18.0% of rushing attempts (worst in FBS); offense had a 7.5% turnover rate (13^th FBS, 2^nd Big 12) on 1 fumble lost and 8 INTs; 14 starters return (5 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 23.3 ppg- 100^th/9^th Big 12, Rushing 90.3 ypg- 123^rd/10^th, Passing 219.9 ypg- 72^nd/7^th, Total 310.2 ypg- 118^th/9^th; Defense: Scoring 29.2 ppg- 63^rd/7^th, Rushing 180.4 ypg- 82^nd/8^th, Passing 203.0 ypg- 30^th/2^nd, Total 383.4 ypg- 48^th/6^th; TO Margin +0.89/game- 16^th/2^nd.

 

Come back tomorrow as I continue my countdown to #1.  And check out my previous previews.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!