College Football Preview Part VIII

Welcome back!

Starting July 19 and continuing each weekday through August 6, I will preview all 130 FBS teams in order from #130 to #1.  These are my own Power Rankings, using a formula I devised.  This is where the teams stand now, and not their predicted finish.  I will update these Power Rankings each Tuesday throughout the season based on the results that week.

Beginning August 9 and continuing through August 20, I will preview each conference, one per weekday, with predicted order of finish, predicted division and conference champions, key games, etc. 

Below, you will not find in-depth previews- there are plenty of places to find that kind of preview.  Instead, you will find stats and info that I feel are interesting.  As a reader, I assume that you are a little more than a casual fan, which means you understand basic abbreviations such as TO for turnover, TFL for tackles for loss, etc.  None of the abbreviations I use are made up by me; all are pretty standard across college football.  However, if I use one you're not sure about, feel free to ask in the comments. I do want to point out a few oddities, for lack of a better word, about these previews.

First, the numbers for returning starters can be disputed, and are likely wrong, as they can change daily, based on the source, injuries, transfers, etc.  Take these with a grain of salt, but they do give you a ballpark figure of the experience returning.  Also, the NCAA granted everyone an extra year of eligibility, and MANY students took advantage of this, so there are lots of teams with 16-20 starters returning, much more than usual. 

Second, the pandemic created unusual schedules for the 2020 season.  Alabama played 13 games. Ohio and Miami, Ohio played only 3 games each.  All the other teams played anywhere from 4-12 games. Except for New Mexico State, Old Dominion, and UConn, who didn't play any games, which means finishing 127th in any stat is last place.

Lastly, the SEC, Big Ten, PAC 12, and MAC played conference only schedules.  Notre Dame played as part of the ACC.  

What all this means is that you have to look deeper when comparing stats.  For those playing conference only schedules, where they placed in the conference may be more meaningful than where they placed nationally, as their schedule was probably tougher.  Teams that played fewer games could have their stats skewed by one horrendous (or one tremendous) statistical game. In other words, more so than in past years, we aren't comparing apples to apples here.  However, I included them because I find stats fascinating, and because I think my readers are intelligent enough to draw their own conclusions.

And now, on with the previews!

(Note: record listed is from 2020, not their projected record)

60 Army Black Knights (9-3)

Coach: Jeff Monken (8^th overall/8^th here)

3-year record/rank: 25-13/.6579/T26th

6-year record/rank: 45-31/.5921/43rd

10-year record/rank: 57-67/.4598/81st

A good season means… winning the CIC Trophy, and achieving bowl eligibility for the 5^th time in the last 6 years, though they have some difficult games on their schedule- @Wisconsin, vs Wake Forest, @Liberty, as well as some upset opportunities for their opponents (@Ga St, vs WKU, vs Miami, Oh, @ Ball St) and their annual games against Air Force and Navy.

A disappointing season means… a repeat of the disappointing 2019 season, where they finished with a losing season, and lost the CIC Trophy to Navy.

Notes: Last league title: N/A; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; P Zach Harding (43.3-yd avg) and K Quinn Maretzki (4-6 FGs) return; the Black Knights led the nation with 7 blocked kicks, an average of 0.58/game (2^nd FBS); 13 starters return (5 Off, 8 Def); Offense: Scoring 26.8 ppg- 77^th, Rushing 273.0 ypg- 4^th, Passing 44.8 ypg- 127^th, Total 317.8 ypg- 116^th; Defense: Scoring 14.8 ppg- 2^nd- Rushing 114.6 ypg- 18^th, Passing 160.8 ypg- 2^nd, Total 275.3 ypg- 1^st; TO Margin +0.50/game- 30^th; stats are skewed somewhat from playing THREE lower division teams.

59 Air Force Falcons (3-3)

Coach: Troy Calhoun (15^th overall/15th here)

3-year record/rank: 19-12/.6129/41st

6-year record/rank: 42-28/.6000/41st

10-year record/rank: 67-54/.5537/55th

A good season means… winning the CIC Trophy, and challenging for the MWC Mountain division title.  Their OOC slate is manageable- besides their usual games against Army and Navy, they also play vs FCS Lafayette and vs FAU- and they get Wyoming and SDSU at home, but they have to travel to Boise St and Nevada.  7+ wins seems a reasonable goal.

A disappointing season means… losing to both Army and Navy, dropping to the bottom half of the Mountain division, and finishing with 5 wins or less.

Notes: Last league title: 1998 WAC; Last bowl: 2019 Cheez-It Bowl; P and K will be new; offensive runners were TFL just 4.5% of rushing attempts (best in FBS); 10 starters return (3 Off, 7 Def); Offense: Scoring 24.3 ppg- 94^th/8^th MWC, Rushing 305.7 ypg- 1^st/1^st, Passing 83.7 ypg- 126^th/12^th, Total 389.3 ypg- 72^nd/5^th; Defense: Scoring 15.0 ppg- 3^rd/1^st, Rushing 136.5 ypg- 32^nd/5^th, Passing 166.8 ypg- 5^th/1^st, Total 303.3 ypg- 6^th/2^nd; TO Margin 0.00/game- 60^th/7^th.

 

58 La Tech Bulldogs (5-5)

Coach: Skip Holtz (17^th overall/9^th here)

3-year record/rank: 23-13/.6389/31st

6-year record/rank: 48-28/.6316/T28th

10-year record/rank: 78-49/.6142/T38th

A good season means… 7+ wins and challenging for the CUSA West division title.  While their OOC games are challenging- a 2-2 record against @Miss State, vs FCS SE La, vs SMU, and @ NC St would be an achievement, their conference schedule sets up nicely, as they get N Texas and UTSA at home, and their crossover games are @ODU and vs Charlotte, 2 teams expected to finish at or near the bottom of CUSA East.

A disappointing season means… more blowout losses, more season-ending injuries, and somehow losing 6 or more games.

Notes: Last league title: 2011 WAC; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2013; 4 of their 5 losses were by double digits, but only 2 of their 5 wins were ( 1 against FCS team); P-K Jacob Barnes returns (37.2-yd avg on punts, 12-14 FGs, long of 51); 15 starters return (5 Off, 10 Def); Offense: Scoring 26.7 ppg- 78^th/6^th CUSA, Rushing 99.2 ypg- 119^th/13^th, Passing 216.6 ypg- 74^th/4^th, Total 315.8 ypg- 117^th/11^th; Defense: Scoring 34.7 ppg- 96^th/11^th, Rushing 198.3 ypg- 96^th/9^th, Passing 229.0 ypg- 59^th/11^th, Total 427.3 ypg- 81^st/11^th; TO Margin -0.20/game- 74^th/6^th; HC Holtz is the longest tenured (8 yrs) and winningest coach (61 wins) in LT history.

 

57 Kansas State Wildcats (4-6)

Coach: Chris Klieman (3^rd overall/3^rd here)

3-year record/rank: 16-18/.4706/T80th

6-year record/rank: 39-34/.5342/60th

10-year record/rank: 77-48/.6160/37th

A good season means… at least 6 wins and a return to bowl eligibility, but that is by no means a given.  The key may be their OOC games- vs Stanford in Arlington, vs FCS Southern Illinois, vs Nevada- win those 3 and all that’s needed is a 3-6 record in the Big 12, which means they’ll need an upset or 2.  However, if the offense stays healthy and jells, and the defense plays well, they could challenge for a spot in the Big 12 CG.

A disappointing season means… a 3^rd losing season in the last 4 years.

Notes: Last league title: 2012; Last bowl: 2019 Liberty Bowl; the Wildcats ended ’20 on a 5-game losing streak, after starting 4-1, with 2 of the losses by a combined 3 points; KSU blocked 4 kicks last year, and returned 2 punts for a TD, but P and K will be new; defense allowed 10+ yds on 15.5% of opponents’ rushing attempts (89^th FBS, 9^th Big 12); KSU was one of only 4 teams (along with Ga Southern, Penn St, and TCU) with 2 PRs of 50+ yds; 14 starters return (9 Off, 5 Def); Offense: Scoring 26.6 ppg- 81^st/7^th Big 12, Rushing 151.7 ypg- 77^th/7^th, Passing 185.7 ypg- 107^th/9^th, Total 337.4 ypg- 106^th/8^th; Defense: Scoring 32.2 ppg- 84^th/8^th, Rushing 177.2 ypg- 78^th/7^th, Passing 267.5 ypg- 109^th/10^th, Total 444.7 ypg- 97^th/8^th; TO Margin -0.30/game- 86^th/8^th.

 

56 Virginia Cavaliers (5-5)

Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (17^th overall/6^th here)

3-year record/rank: 22-15/.5946/45th

6-year record/rank: 34-40/.4595/T88th

10-year record/rank: 53-70/.4309/95th

A good season means… a winning season for the 3^rd time in 4 years, and challenging for a 2^nd consecutive division title.  Oh, and defeating Va Tech for the 2^nd time in 3 years!  A bonus would be defeating HC Mendenhall’s old school, BYU, going at least 3-1 in their OOC games- vs FCS William & Mary, vs Illinois, @BYU, vs Notre Dame- and getting 8 to 10 wins.

A disappointing season means… no more than 6 wins, which means a return to mediocrity, a place the Cavaliers know so well.

Notes: Last league title: 1995; Last bowl: 2019 Orange Bowl; the Cavaliers won 4 of their last 5 games; P and K will both be new; UVA is the defending Coastal division champion, as there were no divisions in ’20; defense allowed only 5-15 4^th down conversions- 33.3% rate was 9^th FBS and best in ACC; offense was TFL on only 5.6% of plays (10^th FBS, best in ACC) and on only 6.0% of rushing plays (8^th FBS); defense allowed 8.2% pass receptions to go for 30+ yds (123^rd FBS, last in ACC); 14 starters return (7 Off, 7 Def); Offense: Scoring 30.7 ppg- 47^th/7^th ACC, Rushing 162.7 ypg- 66^th/8^th, Passing 260.6 ypg- 38^th/7^th, Total 423.3 ypg- 42^nd/8^th; Defense: Scoring 29.6 ppg- 66^th/9^th, Rushing 138.5 ypg- 37^th/4^th, Passing 304.4 ypg- 123^rd/15^th, Total 442.9 ypg- 96^th/10^th; TO Margin -0.10/game- 72^nd/9^th; defense was feast or famine last year- 4 games allowing 20 points or less and 4 games allowing 38 or more; offense was 16-25 on 4^th downs.

 

55 Washington State Cougars (1-3)

Coach: Nick Rolovich (6^th overall/2^nd here)

3-year record/rank: 18-12/.6000/44th

6-year record/rank: 44-25/.6377/25th

10-year record/rank: 60-58/.5085/65th

A good season means… a 6+ win season, which means going 2-1 or 3-0 OOC- vs Utah St, vs FCS Portland St, vs BYU- and then going 4-5 or 3-6 (respectively) in the PAC 12 (only 4 home games- USC, Oregon St, Stanford, and Arizona). It would also be great to beat UW for the 1^st time since 2012!

A disappointing season means… a 3^rd straight losing season, and no bowl berth.

Notes: Last league title: 2002 Co-champs; Last bowl: 2019 Cheez-It Bowl; all 3 losses were by at least 2 TDs; starting QB could be Tennessee transfer Jarrett Guarantano, but he’ll need to beat out 2 others in the fall; K and P will be new; only 1.2% of passes went for 30+ yds (125^th FBS, worst in PAC 12); defense allowed 26.8% of opponents’ plays to gain 10+ yds (126^th FBS, last in PAC 12); defense allowed 3.02 pts/drive (115^th FBS, tied last PAC12); 15 starters return (8 Off, 7 Def); Offense: Scoring 27.0 ppg- 75^th/10^th PAC12, Rushing 129.2 ypg- 98^th/10^th, Passing 254.8 ypg- 41^st/3^rd, Total 384.0 ypg- 75^th/10^th; Defense: Scoring 38.5 ppg- 118^th/11^th, Rushing 154.8 ypg- 52^nd/4^th, Passing 307.0 ypg- 124^th/12^th, Total 461.8 ypg- 111^th/11^th; TO Margin -0.50/game- 97^th/9^th.

 

54 Boston College Eagles (6-5)

Coach: Jeff Hafley (2^nd overall/2^nd here)

3-year record/rank: 19-17/.5278/67th

6-year record/rank: 36-38/.4865/77th

10-year record/rank: 56-68/.4516/87th

A good season means… getting 8 or more wins for the 1^st time since 2009, as they have a very favorable schedule- OOC games are vs FCS Colgate, @UMass, @Temple, vs Missouri, cross division games are vs Va Tech and @ Ga Tech, and only 2 of their opponents had a winning season in ’20.

A disappointing season means… another 6 or 7 win season, for a 6^th consecutive year.

Notes: Last league title: 2004 Big East Co-champs; Last bowl: 2019 Birmingham Bowl; P Grant Carlson (42.4-yd avg) and K Aaron Boumerhi (16-20 FGs, 16-18 inside 50) return; 18 starters return ( 9 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 27.8 ppg- 68^th/11^th ACC, Rushing 101.7 ypg- 118^th/14^th, Passing 284.2 ypg- 24^th/3^rd, Total 385.9 ypg- 73^rd/11^th; Defense: Scoring 28.4 ppg- 60^th/6^th; Rushing 171.4 ypg- 73^rd/6^th, Passing 245.5 ypg- 82^nd/7^th, Total 416.8 ypg- 73^rd/8^th; TO Margin +0.64/game- 24^th/3^rd.

 

53 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-5)

Coach: Dave Clawson (13^th overall/8^th here)

3-year record/rank: 19-16/.5429/T62nd

6-year record/rank: 37-36/.5068/72nd

10-year record/rank: 55-67/.4508/T88th

A good season means… a winning season and a 6^th consecutive bowl berth, and, ideally, a top-3 finish in the ACC Atlantic.  They have a good chance at going 3-1 (or at least 2-2) in their OOC games- vs ODU, vs FCS Norfolk St, @Army, @North Carolina (yes, it’s classified as a non-conference game)- so they only need 3 or 4 ACC wins to get to 6, and they avoid the projected top 4 out of the Coastal division, taking on Duke at home and Virginia on the road.

A disappointing season means… a 2^nd straight losing season, which would probably mean going 3-5 (or worse) in the ACC.

Notes: Last league title: 2006; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2015; the Demon Deacons ended the season on a 3-game losing streak; P Ivan Mora (40.2-yd avg) and K Nick Sciba (14-17 FGs) return; defense returned 3 INTs for TDs (2^nd FBS, most ACC); only 5.8% of offensive possessions ended in turnovers (3^rd FBS, best ACC), an average of 1 TO every 98.6 plays, best in FBS; 19 starters return (11 Off, 8 Def); Offense: Scoring 36.0 ppg- 19^th/3^rd ACC, Rushing 163.0 ypg- 63^rd/7^th, Passing 281.4 ypg- 26^th/4^th, Total 444.4 ypg- 28^th/4^th; Defense: Scoring 32.8 ppg- 91^st/12, Rushing 183.3 ypg- 87^th/11^th, Passing 252.3 ypg- 91^st/10^th, Total 435.7 ypg- 90^th/9^th; TO Margin +1.11/game- 8^th/1^st; WF has the worst all-time winning percentage of any P5 school, but has now been to 5 straight bowls (3-2 record) for the 1^st time in its history; WF is 6-12 in November the last 5 seasons, and 1-5 the last 2; defense allowed 37+ pts in 5 games, all losses.

 

52 Toledo Rockets (4-2)

Coach: Jason Candle (6^th overall/6^th here)

3-year record/rank: 17-14/.5484/T60th

6-year record/rank: 47-23/.6714/21st

10-year record/rank: 80-40/.6667/T17th

A good season means… a MAC West division championship, and perhaps a MACCG win.  They do have a couple of tough OOC games- vs FCS Norfolk St, @Notre Dame, vs Colorado St, @UMass, so even if they run the table in the MAC (unlikely, with road games at Ball St, C Mich and Ohio), their ceiling appears to be 10 wins.

A disappointing season means… a mediocre 6 or 7 wins, and a 2^nd or 3^rd place finish in the division.

Notes: Last league title: 2017; Last bowl: 2018 Bahamas Bowl; both losses were by 3 pts each; P Bailey Flint (36.4-yd avg) and Ks Thomas Cluckey (5-5 FGs) and Evan Davis (2-5 FGs) all return; offense gained 10+ yds on 27.1% of plays (7^th FBS, 2^nd MAC); 21 starters return (11 Off, 10 Def); Offense: 35.0 ppg- 21^st/4^th MAC, Rushing 168.2 ypg- 59^th/8^th, Passing 325.8 ypg- 9^th/1^st, Total 494.0 ypg- 13^th/2^nd; Defense: Scoring 24.3 ppg- 36^th/3^rd, Rushing 129.2 ypg- 25^th/2^nd, Passing 233.0 ypg- 64^th/6^th, Total 362.2 ypg- 36^th/2^nd; TO Margin -0.50/game- 97^th/8^th.

 

51 SMU Mustangs (7-3)

Coach: Sonny Dykes (11^th overall/4^th here)

3-year record/rank: 22-13/.6286/T34th

6-year record/rank: 36-36/.50000/T73rd

10-year record/rank: 57-65/.4672/76th

A good season means… a 3^rd straight winning season and challenging for a spot in the AACCG.  However, they must play most of the top AAC contenders- @Navy, vs Tulane, @Houston, @Memphis, vs UCF, @Cincinnati, and vs Tulsa, and avoid almost all of the “bottom feeders”.  Their OOC is manageable- vs FCS Abilene Christian, vs North Texas, @La Tech, @TCU- and their AAC opener is USF at home, so they have an opportunity to get off to a 4-1 (or better) start.

A disappointing season means… a 4^th place (or lower) finish in the AAC.

Notes: Last league title: 1984 Southwest Conference Co-champs; Last bowl: 2019 Boca Raton Bowl (Frisco Bowl vs UTSA in ’20 was canceled); P and K will be new, but Washington St transfer Blake Mazza was a 2019 Lou Groza Award finalist, and is 34-40 in his career on FGs (4-4 in ’20); starting QB may be Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai; 16 starters return (9 Off, 7 Def); Offense: Scoring 38.6 ppg- 15^th/2^nd AAC, Rushing 176.5 ypg- 53^rd/5^th, Passing 318.0 ypg- 13^th/2^nd, Total 494.5 ypg- 12^th/2^nd; Defense: Scoring 30.9 ppg- 75^th/6^th, Rushing 180.3 ypg- 81^st/6^th, Passing 241.9 ypg- 77^th/7^th, Total 422.2 ypg- 78^th/6^th; TO Margin +0.50/game- 30^th/2^nd; defense averaged 7.6 TFLs/game (14^th FBS).

 

Come back tomorrow as I continue my countdown to #1.  And check out my previous previews.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!