College Football Preview Part X

Welcome back!

Starting July 19 and continuing each weekday through August 6, I will preview all 130 FBS teams in order from #130 to #1.  These are my own Power Rankings, using a formula I devised.  This is where the teams stand now, and not their predicted finish.  I will update these Power Rankings each Tuesday throughout the season based on the results that week.

Beginning August 9 and continuing through August 20, I will preview each conference, one per weekday, with predicted order of finish, predicted division and conference champions, key games, etc. 

Below, you will not find in-depth previews- there are plenty of places to find that kind of preview.  Instead, you will find stats and info that I feel are interesting.  As a reader, I assume that you are a little more than a casual fan, which means you understand basic abbreviations such as TO for turnover, TFL for tackles for loss, etc.  None of the abbreviations I use are made up by me; all are pretty standard across college football.  However, if I use one you're not sure about, feel free to ask in the comments. I do want to point out a few oddities, for lack of a better word, about these previews.

First, the numbers for returning starters can be disputed, and are likely wrong, as they can change daily, based on the source, injuries, transfers, etc.  Take these with a grain of salt, but they do give you a ballpark figure of the experience returning.  Also, the NCAA granted everyone an extra year of eligibility, and MANY students took advantage of this, so there are lots of teams with 16-20 starters returning, much more than usual. 

Second, the pandemic created unusual schedules for the 2020 season.  Alabama played 13 games. Ohio and Miami, Ohio played only 3 games each.  All the other teams played anywhere from 4-12 games. Except for New Mexico State, Old Dominion, and UConn, who didn't play any games, which means finishing 127th in any stat is last place.

Lastly, the SEC, Big Ten, PAC 12, and MAC played conference only schedules.  Notre Dame played as part of the ACC.  

What all this means is that you have to look deeper when comparing stats.  For those playing conference only schedules, where they placed in the conference may be more meaningful than where they placed nationally, as their schedule was probably tougher.  Teams that played fewer games could have their stats skewed by one horrendous (or one tremendous) statistical game. In other words, more so than in past years, we aren't comparing apples to apples here.  However, I included them because I find stats fascinating, and because I think my readers are intelligent enough to draw their own conclusions.

And now, on with the previews!

(Note: record listed is from 2020, not their projected record)

40 Northwestern Wildcats (7-2)

Coach: Pat Fitzgerald (16^th overall/16^th here)

3-year record/rank: 19-16/.5429/T62nd

6-year record/rank: 46-28/.6216/T33rd

10-year record/rank: 72-52/.5806/T46th

A good season means… challenging for a Big Ten West title once again, and they have the schedule to do it.  Their crossover games are Michigan St, Rutgers, and @Michigan, and they host Iowa and Minnesota.  If they can avoid their usual poor OOC start- they play FCS Indiana St, @Duke, and vs Ohio- then they have a good chance at 8-10 wins in the regular season.

A disappointing season means… their offense continues to struggle scoring, they get off to a poor start due to inexperience, and they stumble to less than 8 wins.

Notes: Last league title: 2000; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; starting QB is likely to be either South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski or Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson; P Derek Adams (41.8-yd avg) and K Charlie Kuhbander (9-12 FGs) return; defense allowed a TD rate of 11.3%, best in FBS; defense allowed only 1.1% of plays to gain 30+ yds (2^nd FBS, 2^nd in Big Ten- behind Iowa); defense allowed TDs just 29.6% of the time when opponents were in the red zone- 27 trips= 11 FGs, 8 TDs, 8 times with no points; 7 starters return (3 Off, 4 Def); Offense: Scoring 24.7 ppg- 92^nd/10^th Big Ten, Rushing 162.8 ypg- 65^th/8^th, Passing 197.9 ypg- 96^th/10^th, Total 360.7 ypg- 93^rd/9^th; Defense: Scoring 15.9 ppg- 5^th/1^st, Rushing 145.9 ypg- 46^th/7^th, Passing 195.3 ypg- 19^th/1^st, Total 341.2 ypg- 22^nd/4^th; TO Margin +0.44/game- 36^th/6^th.

39 Nevada Wolf Pack (7-2)

Coach: Jay Norvell (5^th overall/5^th here)

3-year record/rank: 22-13/.6286/T34th

6-year record/rank: 37-35/.5139/68th

10-year record/rank: 62-65/.4882/73rd

A good season means… winning their 1^st ever MWC Championship!  But they’ll have a tough time getting there, as they face Boise St and SDSU on the road, and should they make the CG, will most likely have to face Boise St again.  Their OOC schedule is tough- @Cal, vs FCS Idaho St, @Kansas St, vs New Mexico St- so 9 regular season wins may be their ceiling.  They should certainly challenge for the West division title.

A disappointing season means… 5 losses or more, and finishing 3^rd or lower in the division.

Notes: Last league title: 2010 WAC Co-champs; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2017; the Wolf Pack lost to the only 2 teams they played who finished above .500; P Julian Diaz (46.3-yd avg) and K Brandon Talton (15-18 FGs) return; 19 starters return (10 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 30.8 ppg- 46^th/3^rd MWC, Rushing 122.3 ypg- 108^th/11^th, Passing 319.1 ypg- 12^th/2^nd, Total 441.4 ypg- 30^th/2^nd; Defense: Scoring 23.3 ppg- 33^rd/5^th, Rushing 138.1 ypg- 36^th/6^th, Passing 239.6 ypg- 73^rd/9^th, Total 377.7 ypg- 42^nd/7^th; TO Margin 0.00/game- 60^th/7^th.

 

38 Memphis Tigers (8-3)

Coach: Ryan Silverfield (2^nd overall/2^nd here)

3-year record/rank: 28-11/.7179/T16th

6-year record/rank: 55-23/.7051/14th

10-year record/rank: 74-53/.5827/T44th

A good season means… a return to the AAC title game, for the 4^th time in the last 5 years.  A 9 or 10 win regular season is possible, as they avoid Cincinnati, get Navy, SMU and Tulane at home, and should go 3-1 in OOC play at worst- vs FCS Nicholls, @Arkansas St, vs Miss State, vs UTSA.  Their most challenging games (besides Miss St at home) should be their road games at Tulsa, UCF, and Houston.

A disappointing season means… 7 wins or less, and finishing in 4^th place or lower, possibly due to not finding an adequate replacement at QB and/or the defense playing poorly, as they did in the 1^st half of ’20.

Notes: Last league title: 2019; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2013; both P and K will be new; 16 starters return (7 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 31.0 ppg- 44^th/5^th AAC, Rushing 145.2 ypg- 80^th/9^th, Passing 307.9 ypg- 17^th/3^rd, Total 453.1 ypg- 22^nd/3^rd; Defense: Scoring 27.9 ppg- 56^th/3^rd, Rushing 145.1 ypg- 45^th/4^th, Passing 289.2 ypg- 117^th/10^th, Total 434.3 ypg- 88^th/8^th; TO Margin +0.09/game 57^th/5^th.

 

37 West Virginia Mountaineers (6-4)

Coach: Neal Brown (7^th overall/3^rd here)

3-year record/rank: 19-15/.5588/56th

6-year record/rank: 44-29/.6027/40th

10-year record/rank: 72-52/.5806/T46th

A good season means… a 5^th place or higher finish in the Big 12, which means a 5-4 or 6-3 conference record.  However, they have 5 Big 12 road games this year, but 3- Baylor, Kansas St, and Kansas- are teams expected to finish below them.  Their OOC schedule is challenging- @Maryland, vs FCS Long Island, vs Va Tech- but if they can come out of those with a 3-0 record, then they can possibly get to 8 or 9 wins. 

A disappointing season means… another finish in the bottom half of the conference.  We’ll know a lot about this team by how they do against Maryland on the road and Va Tech at home in the 1^st 3 weeks.

Notes: Last league title: 2011 Big East; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; Ps Tyler Sumpter (40.7-yd avg) and Kolton McGhee (39.7-yd avg) both return, as do Ks Evan Staley, Casey Legg, and Tyler Sumpter (again), who combined to go 14-20 FGs; defense allowed a score on only 27.2% of opponents’ drives (18^th FBS, 2^nd Big 12); only 15.2% of opponents’ plays went for 10+ yds (2^nd FBS, best in Big 12); 14 starters return (8 Off, 6 Def); Offense: Scoring 26.5 ppg- 82^nd/8^th Big 12, Rushing 135.1 ypg- 92^nd/8^th, Passing 277.5 ypg- 28^th/3^rd, Total 412.6 ypg- 50^th/6^th; Defense: Scoring 20.5 ppg- 21^st/1^st, Rushing 131.8 ypg- 28^th/4^th, Passing 159.6 ypg- 1^st/1^st, Total 291.4 ypg- 4^th/1^st; TO Margin +0.20/game- 51^st/5^th.

 

36 FSU Seminoles (3-6)

Coach: Mike Norvell (6^th overall/2^nd here)

3-year record/rank: 14-20/.4118/T93rd

6-year record/rank: 41-32/.5616/54th

10-year record/rank: 89-39/.6953/14th

A good season means… 6+ wins, bowl eligibility, and a chance for their 1^st winning season since 2017. However, they meet Notre Dame to open the season and play @Florida to close, and in addition to their division games, play @Miami and vs North Carolina as their crossover games.  If you assume no upsets, then they will need to win 4 games within their division- @Wake Forest, vs Louisville, vs Syracuse, @Clemson, vs NC State, @Boston College.  Do you see 4 wins there? (I’m assuming they’ll beat FCS Jacksonville St and UMass, but you know what happens when you assume…)

A disappointing season means… a 4^th consecutive losing season, and finishing 5^th or lower in the Atlantic division.

Notes: Last league title: 2014; Last bowl: 2019 Sun Bowl; P Alex Mastromanno (43.5-yd avg) returns, as do Ks Ryan Fitzgerald and Parker Grothaus (each 4-7 FGs); FSU blocked 5 kicks (tied 2^nd FBS) an avg of 0.56 blocks/game (3^rd FBS); the Seminoles’ offense averaged 8.4 yards-to-go on 3^rd down (123^rd FBS, 2^nd worst ACC); 14 starters return (9 Off, 5 Def); Offense: Scoring 25.8 ppg- 85^th/12 ACC, Rushing 199.9 ypg- 31^st/5^th, Passing 196.8 ypg- 98^th/14^th, Total 396.7 ypg- 62^nd/9^th; Defense: Scoring 36.0 ppg- 105^th/13^th, Rushing 199.2 ypg- 97^th/13^th, Passing 257.1 ypg- 98^th/12^th, Total 456.3 ypg- 107^th/13^th; TO Margin -0.33/game- 88^th/11^th; FSU lost 3 of their last 4, and 5 of their 6 losses were by double digits.

 

35 Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-4)

Coach: PJ Fleck (9^th overall/5^th here)

3-year record/rank: 21-12/.6364/32nd

6-year record/rank: 41-30/.5775/49th

10-year record/rank: 66-56/.5409/58th

A good season means… 8+ wins and at least a 3^rd place finish in the Big Ten West.  They also need to defeat either Iowa or Wisconsin, something they haven’t done since a 2014 victory over Iowa (51-14).  Getting to 8 may be doable, as their OOC games- vs Miami, Oh, @Colorado, vs Bowling Green- are all “winnable”, but their crossover games- vs Ohio State (opener), vs Maryland, and @Indiana- are all challenging.  They will need to go 3-0 OOC, at least 1-2 in Crossover, and then 4-2 within their division.

A disappointing season means… a drop back down to 7 wins or less, and a 4^th place finish or lower in the division.

Notes: Last league title: 1967 Co-champs; Last bowl: 2019 Outback Bowl; 2 of their 4 losses were in OT; both P and K return, but transfers have been brought in to compete; opponents made only 5-14 FGs, or 35.7%, 3^rd lowest in FBS and lowest in Big Ten; defense had only 4.3% of plays as TFLs, last in FBS; 15 starters return (9 Off, 6 Def); Offense: Scoring 27.3 ppg- 71^st/6^th Big Ten, Rushing 191.9 ypg- 42^nd/4^th, Passing 199.1 ypg- 92^nd/8^th, Total 391.0 ypg- 69^th/5^th; Defense: Scoring 30.1 ppg- 70^th/9^th, Rushing 207.1 ypg- 102^nd/12^th, Passing 207.7 ypg- 36^th/6^th, Total 415.9 ypg- 72^nd/10^th; TO Margin 0.00/game- 60^th/8^th.

 

34 BYU Cougars (11-1)

Coach: Kalani Sitake (6^th overall/6^th here)

3-year record/rank: 25-13/.6579/T26th

6-year record/rank: 47-30/.6104/37th

10-year record/rank: 81-48/.6279/31st

A good season means… a 4^th straight winning season and bowl eligibility, but I would be surprised if they get 10 wins again- their 1^st 3 games are vs Arizona in Las Vegas, vs rival Utah, and vs Arizona St, and their schedule also includes @ rival Utah St, vs Boise State, @Baylor, @Washington St, vs Virginia (and former BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall), @ Georgia Southern, and concludes @USC.  Do you see a path to 10 wins?

A disappointing season means… a .500 season, or worse, a losing season, especially with the inexperience at QB and other areas.

Notes: Last league title: 2007 Mountain West Conference; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2017; P Ryan Rehkow (45.1-yd avg) and K Jake Oldroyd (13-13 FGs, 60-62 XPs, Lou Groza Award finalist) both return; the Cougars played no P5 teams, as 3 of the 5 conferences did not play any OOC games; defense allowed only 1.3% of plays to gain 30+ yds (4^th FBS); only 6.5% of offensive possessions ended in turnovers (5 lost fumbles, 4 INTs- 6^th FBS); offense averaged only 11.75 plays between TDs (3^rd FBS- Alabama 11.42, Buffalo 11.72); 11 starters return (7 Off, 4 Def); Offense: Scoring 43.5 ppg- 3^rd, Rushing 190.1 ypg- 44^th, Passing 332.1 ypg- 8^th, Total 522.2 ypg- 6^th; Defense Scoring 15.3 ppg- 4^th, Rushing 119.9 ypg- 19^th, Passing 197.5 ypg- 22^nd, Total 317.4 ypg- 10^th; TO Margin +0.75/game- 19^th.

 

33 Indiana Hoosiers (6-2)

Coach: Tom Allen (5^th overall/5^th here)

3-year record/rank: 19-14/.5758/51st

6-year record/rank: 36-35/.5075/71st

10-year record/rank: 50-69/.4202/T98th

A good season means… continuing the success of ’20, but that may depend on QB Michael Penix staying healthy. A 9-win season seems like a good goal, but can they challenge Ohio State for the Big Ten East title? Their crossover games are @Iowa (season opener), Minnesota, and @Purdue (season closer), and they get OSU and Mich St at home, but Penn St and Michigan on the road.  Their OOC schedule contains 1 possible hiccup- vs Cincinnati on Sept 18 (other games are vs FCS Idaho and @WKU).

A disappointing season means… 7 wins or less, and a 3^rd place (or lower) finish in the division.

Notes: Last league title: 1967 Co-champs; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2018; P will be new, but K Charles Campbell (12-13 FGs) returns; offense gained 10+ yds on just 7.6% of rushing attempts (124^th FBS, worst in Big Ten); 19.4% of opponents drives ended in TOs- 17 INTs and 3 fumble recoveries (4^th FBS, best in Big Ten); defense had a 36% stop rate inside the red zone- 12 TDs and 4 FGs in 25 trips (1^st FBS); 17 starters return (8 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 28.9 ppg- 59^th/4^th Big Ten,  Rushing 108.6 ypg- 114^th/12^th, Passing 250.9 ypg- 43^rd/5^th, Total 359.5 ypg- 94^th/10^th; Defense: Scoring 20.2 ppg- 19^th/4^th, Rushing 137.1 ypg- 34^th/5^th, Passing 241.0 ypg- 75^th/10^th, Total 378.1 ypg- 43^rd/5^th; TO Margin +1.00/game- 10^th/3^rd; both losses were by 7 pts or less, a combined 13 pts; the Hoosiers defeated Michigan, Michigan St, and Penn State in the same season for the 1^st time in history; Indiana had back-to-back winning records in the Big Ten for the 1^st time since 1987-88.

 

32 Stanford Cardinal (4-2)

Coach: David Shaw (11^th overall/11^th here)

3-year record/rank: 17-14/.5484/T60th

6-year record/rank: 48-24/.6667/22nd

10-year record/rank: 90-36/.7143/11th

A good season means… contending once again to win the PAC 12 North.  However, their crossover games are @USC, UCLA, Utah, and @Arizona St, 3 of which are expected to compete for the South title.  They have perhaps the toughest OOC slate (maybe rivaled by USC or UCLA- but both of those play at least 2 of theirs at home) in the PAC 12- vs Kansas St in Arlington, @Vanderbilt, and vs Notre Dame. Their ceiling may be 7 or 8 wins, assuming an upset or 2.  However, they do get both Washington and Oregon at home.

A disappointing season means… a 4^th place or lower finish in the division, and 6 wins or fewer overall.

Notes: Last league title: 2015; Last bowl: 2018 Sun Bowl; the Cardinal ended the season on a 4-game winning streak, all by 5 pts or less; P Ryan Sanborn (39-yd avg) returns, but K will be new; Stanford blocked 3 kicks in ’20; defense allowed opponents 100% on fourth down conversion attempts (5-5), the only defense to do so; offense was TFL only 5.48% of plays (7^th FBS, 2^nd PAC 12); with only 3 INTs and 2 lost fumbles, the offense averaged 84 plays between TOs (8^th FBS, 2^nd PAC 12); 14 starters return (6 Off, 8 Def); Offense: Scoring 29.3 ppg- 56^th/7^th PAC12, Rushing 132.8 ypg- 93^rd/9^th, Passing 287.3 ypg- 22^nd/2^nd, Total 420.2 ypg- 45^th/3^rd; Defense: Scoring 31.7 ppg- 77^th/8^th, Rushing 222.0 ypg- 112^th/11^th, Passing 216.7 ypg- 44^th/5^th, Total 438.7 ypg- 93^rd/9^th; TO Margin +0.33/game- 41^st/4^th.

 

31 NC State Wolfpack (8-4)

Coach: Dave Doeren (11^th overall/9^th here)

3-year record/rank: 21-16/.5676/T52nd

6-year record/rank: 44-32/.5789/T47th

10-year record/rank: 70-57/.5512/57th

A good season means… finishing 2^nd in the ACC Atlantic division, and perhaps 8 or 9 wins.  They should win 3 or 4 of their OOC games- vs USF, @Miss State, vs FCS Furman, vs La Tech- but they draw @Miami and UNC for their crossover teams, the presumptive 2 best from the Coastal division.  However, they get Clemson at home in their ACC opener, and if they could somehow pull the upset…

A disappointing season means… a slip back to 5, 6, or 7 wins, and a 4^th place or lower finish in the division.

Notes: Last league title: 1979; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; P Trenton Gill (44.8-yd avg) and K Christopher Dunn (12-17 FGs, long of 53) return; the Wolfpack allowed 5 PRs of 20+ yds (only Kansas and Hawaii allowed more); offense recovered 75% of their fumbles (12-16),- 9^th FBS, 2^nd ACC; 17 starters return (8 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 30.2 ppg- 48^th/8^th ACC, Rushing 122.5 ypg- 107^th/12^th, Passing 262.8 ypg- 36^th/6th, Total 385.3 ypg- 74^th/12^th; Defense: Scoring 29.2 ppg- 62^nd/7^th, Rushing 173.9 ypg- 75^th/7^th, Passing 241.1 ypg- 76^th/6^th, Total 415.0 ypg- 71^st/7^th; TO Margin -0.50/game- 97^th/12^th; 2 of 4 losses were by a combined 5 pts.

 

Come back Monday as I continue my countdown to #1.  And check out my previous previews.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!