Paul's Picks Week Zero
Welcome Back!
The first games are in 2 days, and it's a rather sparse weekend, hence the "Week Zero" moniker. Last year, I finished at 71.8%, which was WAY below my usual average (I'm usually around 75%). You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread. I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on YOU!). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for right around 50 years, and I've seen a lot of it.
In this space each week, I will update you on my picking percentage, and whether it went up or down from the previous week. My goal each year is to be correct 80% of the time over a full season, but I've never actually achieved that. Most years, I'm right around 75%, but I think my high has been close to 78%, with last year perhaps being my worst in many years (very few FBS vs FCS games to pad my stats).
I will also give you my pick for every game that will take place for the coming weekend. Most weeks, the early games will start on Thursdays; on weeks where there are earlier games, on Tuesday or Wednesday (like next week), I'll give those picks the day of the game. Like my TWIF Notes, there won't be a lot of in-depth analysis, but I hope you will find my unique takes interesting and entertaining.
Now... on with the first picks of the 2021 season!
Saturday, August 28
Nebraska @ Illinois- The Cornhuskers lead the all-time series 13-4-1, and have won 4 of the last 5, but the Illini won by 18 last year, and the series since NU joined the Big Ten stands at 6-2 in the Huskers' favor. There has been quite a lot of off-the-field turmoil coming out of Lincoln, but I haven't heard a peep out of Champaign. Bret Bielema knows the Big Ten, and knows how to build a winner there, but can he do it at Illinois? I think the Illini come out ready, and play physically at the point of attack on both sides of the ball. They may not win another conference game, but this is my upset special, right out of the gate in the first game of the 2021 season. I may be crazy, but Illinois wins!
UConn @ Fresno State- The Huskies haven't played a game since 2019 (2-10), and the Bulldogs had an uneven 2020 in HC DeBoer's 1st year in Fresno. This is the 1st meeting ever between these 2 teams. FSU West wins easily.
Hawaii @ UCLA- These 2 teams have met 3 times previously, but the 1st 2 times were in the 1930s. UCLA has won all 3 times: 19-6 in 1935, 32-7 in the 1939 Poi Bowl (played on 1/2/39), and 56-23 in 2017. I expect a similar result, but the Bruins better not take the Rainbow Warriors lightly. UCLA wins, but it will be close for a while, maybe even into the 3rd quarter.
UTEP @ New Mexico State- Raise your hand if you knew these 2 teams have played 97 times. Put your hand down, you liar! These are obviously old rivals, as this series even has a nickname: The Battle of I-10! The Miners won 3 games last year, but 2 were against FCS teams, and one was against a winless ULM. They are only 5-39 over the last 4 years, so they badly need a win to show last year wasn't a fluke. The Aggies went 1-1 last year, but both games were in the spring against FCS competition, and they were blown out by 26 pts in one of them (they won the other by 7). However, NMSU was 7-6 as recently as 2017, and went 5-19 in 2018-19, so they also desperately need to get their season off to a good start. NMSU hasn't won their opener since 2014, while UTEP's last opening win against an FBS foe was in 2016- against the Aggies. The Miners lead the series 57-38-2, and have won the last 3, which broke an 8-game streak by NMSU. This should be a close game, but UTEP wins.
Southern Utah @ San Jose State- The Spartans should have no problems with the Thunderbirds. SJSU wins easily.
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