Odds and Ends 11/24/21

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Welcome Back!

The 4th CFP Rankings came out last night, and there was a shakeup in the 2-4 spots. Ohio State moves to #2, Alabama drops to #3, and Cincinnati moves into the #4 spot. I feel the committee got this part absolutely right. There are 5 SEC teams, 5 Big Ten teams, 3 Big 12 teams, 2 Pac 12 teams, 4 ACC teams, 2 Independents, 2 AAC teams, and 1 each from the MWC, and the CUSA. The Sun Belt and the MAC are not represented. I don't list the full top 25 because that information is easily available elsewhere.

Check out how the conferences are doing, how each division is doing, and who is already bowl eligible or eliminated from bowl consideration. I've also included the number of wins each team needs to be bowl eligible, their remaining schedule, and their chances of getting there. 

There are lots of fantastic games this week, so check out the "Games I'm Looking Forward To" at the bottom. I hope you enjoy reading through all the info below!

Which Conference is Best?

A great majority of the non-conference games have been played, though there are still some left, especially against the Independents and some FCS teams. 

1. SEC 45-7 .865
2. Big Ten 32-9 .781
3. Big 12 23-7 .767
4. ACC 32-17 .653
5. MWC 30-19 .612
6. AAC 23-19 .547
7. Sun Belt 21-19 .525
8. Pac 12 16-17 .485
9. Independents 32-35 .478
10. MAC 21-26 .449
11. CUSA 24-32 .429
12. FCS 12-104 .103

The AAC moved above the Sun Belt.

Now the above includes the record against all competition.  What if we narrow it down to just FBS competition?  Does that change the standings?  Let's see...

1. SEC 32-6 .842
2. Big Ten 25-9 .735
3. Big 12 14-7 .667
4. MWC 21-17 .553
5. ACC 19-16 .543
6. Independents 27-32 .458
7. AAC 15-18 .455
8. Sun Belt 13-18 .419
9. Pac 12 9-15 .375
10. MAC 10-25 .286
11. CUSA 10-32 .238
12. FCS 12-104 .103

As you can see, a lot of conferences fattened up against FCS teams. The Pac 12 won only 37.5% of non-conference FBS games- that's great if that's your batting average, not so good if it's your winning percentage.

To break it down further, here is how each conference has done so far against G5 teams. For this purpose, all independents, even Notre Dame and BYU, are considered G5 teams.

1. SEC 26-1 .963
2. Big 12 10-2 .833
3. Big Ten 17-5 .773
4. MWC 16-6 .727
T5. Sun Belt 12-7 .631
T5. AAC 12-7 .631
7. ACC 14-9 .608
8. MAC 7-10 .412
9. Independents 14-21 .400
10. Pac 12 6-10 .375
11. CUSA 8-18 .308
12. FCS 8-55 .127

As you can see, the SEC does the best job of "beating the teams it's supposed to", while the MWC is best against its G5 peers. The Pac 12 has done worse among the P5, and is better than only CUSA in the G5 conferences. 

And against P5 teams:

1. Big Ten 8-4 .667
2. SEC 6-5 .545
3. Independents 13-11 .542
4. Big 12 4-5 .444
5. ACC 5-7 .417
6. Pac 12 3-5 .375
7. MWC 5-11 .313
8. AAC 3-11 .214
9. MAC 3-15 .167
10. CUSA 2-14 .125
11. Sun Belt 1-11 .083
12. FCS 4-49 .075

The Big Ten leads all conferences here by a wide margin. The MWC has done the best of the G5 conferences against P5 competition, all 5 of their wins coming against the Pac 12. 


Which Division is Best?

Here is how each conference division is faring so far in this season.  Conferences without divisions get counted as one.

1. SEC West 52-25 .675
2. Big Ten East 49-28 .636
3. ACC Atlantic 47-30 .610
4. MAC West 39-27 .591
T5. Big 12 64-46 .582
T5. SBC East 32-23 .582
7. SEC East 44-33 .571
8. MWC West 37-30 .552
9. MWC Mountain 36-30 .545
10. Big Ten West 41-36 .532
11. AAC 62-58 .517
12. Pac 12 North 33-32 .508
13. ACC Coastal 38-39 .494
14. CUSA West 38-39 .493
15. Pac 12 South 31-34 .477
16. Independents 36-40 .474
17. CUSA East 35-42 .455
18. SBC West 24-31 .369
19. MAC East 24-42 .364

Both the SEC East and the SEC West were 5-2 this week. The MWC Mountain and the MAC West were 4-2. The MAC East was 2-4 and the SBC West was 1-4.


Intraconference Results

The SEC West leads the SEC East 9-4.
The Big Ten East leads the Big Ten West 11-9.
The ACC Atlantic leads the ACC Coastal 9-3.
The Pac 12 North is tied with the Pac 12 South 11-11.
The MWC West leads the MWC Mountain 8-5.
The Sun Belt East leads the West 12-7.
The CUSA West leads the CUSA East 7-6.
The MAC West leads the East 9-3.


Undefeated/Winless Teams

Here are the undefeated teams.

Cincinnati 10-0
Georgia 10-0
UTSA 10-0

There are 3 remaining undefeated teams out of 130 total teams in FBS.  There are no winless teams. 

Look below to see how these break down by conference.  The number listed 1st is the number of undefeated teams in each conference, and the 2nd number is the amount of winless teams.

AAC 1-0
SEC 1-0
CUSA 1-0
Big 12 0-0
Big Ten 0-0
ACC 0-0
SBC 0-0
MAC 0-0
Ind 0-0
MWC 0-0
Pac 12 0-0


While the number of winless teams have been reduced to zero, there are still 3 teams that have a win, but their only win is against an FCS team, a reduction of 2 from last week, as both Tulane and Southern Miss got their 1st FBS win. Those teams, in alphabetical order, are:

FIU
New Mexico State
UConn

If you break these down by conference:

SEC- 0
ACC- 0
MWC-0
Big Ten- 0
MAC-0
Pac 12- 0
Big 12- 0
SBC-0
AAC- 0
CUSA-1

Ind- 2

Maybe every team will get a win against an FBS team this year, but with UConn finishing their season against Houston, that seems highly unlikely.


Bowl Eligible/Eliminated

To be bowl eligible, you must achieve 6 wins, with no more than 1 of those against an FCS team. Here are the teams that are already bowl eligible, listed alphabetically. Since there are 43 bowl games, 86 slots will need to be filled. There are currently 72 bowl eligible teams, 12 more than last week, so we still need 14 more teams.  There are still 40 possible teams available to fill those 14 slots.

Air Force
Alabama
Appalachian State
Arizona State
Arkansas
Army
Auburn
Baylor
Boise State
Boston College
BYU
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Coastal Carolina
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia State
Houston
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas State
Kent State
Kentucky
Liberty
Louisiana
Louisville
Marshall
Miami, Fl
Miami, Oh
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Missouri
NC State
Nevada
North Carolina
Northern Illinois
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Oregon
Oregon State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
San Diego State
SMU
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Toledo
UAB
UCF
UCLA
Utah
Utah State
UTEP
UTSA
Virginia
Wake Forest
Washington State
Western Michigan
Wisconsin
WKU
Wyoming

Once you have reached 7 losses, you are eliminated from participating in a bowl. However, if there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill all the slots, 5-7 teams may be chosen. Here are the teams that already have 7 losses, listed alphabetically. So far, there are 35, 5 more than last week.

Akron
Arizona
Arkansas State
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Colorado
Colorado State
Duke
FIU
Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech
Illinois
Indiana
Kansas
La Tech
Navy
Nebraska
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Northwestern
Ohio
Rice
Southern Miss
Stanford
Temple
Texas
Texas State
Tulane
UConn
ULM
UMass
UNLV
USF
Vanderbilt
Washington

I will now list all the teams that can still reach bowl eligibility, their remaining schedule, and their chances of achieving this feat.

Teams needing 1 win:


Ball State
Remaining schedule- Buffalo
Bowl Chance- Good

Charlotte
Remaining schedule- @ODU
Bowl Chance- Fair

FAU
Remaining schedule-  MTSU
Bowl Chance- Fair

Florida
Remaining schedule- FSU
Bowl Chance- Fair

FSU
Remaining schedule- @Florida
Bowl Chance- Fair

Hawaii
Remaining schedule- @Wyoming
Bowl Chance- Fair

Louisville
Remaining schedule- @Duke, Kentucky
Bowl Chance- Poor

LSU
Remaining schedule-Texas A&M
Bowl Chance- Poor

Maryland
Remaining schedule- @Rutgers
Bowl Chance- Poor

Memphis
Remaining schedule- Tulane
Bowl Chance- Fair

Middle Tennessee
Remaining schedule-  @FAU
Bowl Chance- Fair

North Texas
Remaining schedule- UTSA
Bowl Chance- Very Poor

ODU
Remaining schedule-  Charlotte
Bowl Chance- Fair

Rutgers
Remaining schedule- Maryland
Bowl Chance- Fair

San Jose State
Remaining schedule- Fresno St
Bowl Chance- Poor

South Alabama
Remaining schedule-  CCU
Bowl Chance- Very Poor

Syracuse
Remaining schedule- Pitt
Bowl Chance- Very Poor

TCU
Remaining schedule- @Iowa St
Bowl Chance- Poor

Troy
Remaining schedule-@Ga St
Bowl Chance- Fair

Tulsa
Remaining schedule- @SMU
Bowl Chance- Poor

Virginia Tech
Remaining schedule- @Virginia
Bowl Chance- Fair

West Virginia
Remaining schedule- @Kansas
Bowl Chance- Good


Teams needing 2 wins:

California
Remaining schedule-  @UCLA, USC
Bowl Chance- Poor

USC
Remaining schedule-  BYU, @Cal
Bowl Chance- Fair


Update on my Playoff Picks

My preseason playoff picks (in no particular order) were Georgia, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Clemson.  Georgia stomped Charleston Southern, so the Dawgs are looking good.  Oklahoma beat Iowa State, so they need to win twice over Oklahoma State to make it in. Oregon has been eliminated, thanks to their loss to Utah. Clemson has also been eliminated due to their 3 losses. 

Games I'm Excited About

Ole Miss @ Mississippi State- Will the Egg Bowl live up to past years? Can the Rebels get to 10 wins, or will the Bulldogs pull off a 3rd win in 4 years?

Boise State @ San Diego State- Can the Aztecs clinch the MWC West? Can the Broncos stay alive in the MWC Mountain?

Washington State @ Washington- Can the Cougars finally get a big win in this series and put added pressure on the Ducks? Can the Huskies pull off the upset and ruin any chance Wazzu has at a division title?

Georgia @ Georgia Tech- Can the Dawgs complete their 1st undefeated regular season since 1982? Can the Yellow Jackets add another upset to the rivalry known as Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate?

Ohio State @ Michigan- Can the Wolverines exorcise their demons and finally get a big win over the Buckeyes? Are the Buckeyes really the only team that can win the Big Ten?

Wake Forest @ Boston College- Can the Demon Deacons lock down the division, or will they open the door for Clemson or NC State? Can the Eagles pull off the huge upset at home?

Texas Tech @ Baylor- Can the Bears get a big win and put added pressure on the Sooners to get a victory at OSU? Can the Red Raiders pull the upset and give OU a back door into the Big 12 CG?

FSU @ Florida-Which of these teams will get the win and earn a bowl slot? Which of these teams is the greater dumpster fire?

Miami, Oh @ Kent State- Can the Golden Flashes win the division at home, or will the Redhawks win their 3rd consecutive and clinch the MAC East?

Alabama @ Auburn- Will this Iron Bowl live up to past encounters? Or will the Tide destroy the Tigers?

Oregon State @ Oregon- Can the Ducks finally clinch the Pac 12 North and earn a rematch with Utah? Will the Beavers finally win the division?

Wisconsin @ Minnesota- Will the Badgers be able to clinch the Big Ten West? Can the Golden Gophers pull the upset and perhaps win the division?

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State- Can the Sooners win this and force a rematch one week later in the Big 12 CG? Or will the Cowboys pull off a rare win in Bedlam and have a rematch with Baylor (assuming the Bears win their game with TTU)?

Baylor @ Kansas State- Which team will be able to keep their slim title chances alive? Will the Bears be able to build on their dominance of the Sooners, or will they fall victim to a very good Wildcats team?

Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! Follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!   

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