Paul's Picks Bowl Week 1
Welcome Back!
So far this year I am 631-218 overall, a 74.3% winning percentage, which isn't too bad, I guess; below the 75% I was shooting for, but better than the 71.8% I finished last year.
Bowl games are notoriously hard to predict, as it's hard to know the effect of coaches leaving and interims taking over for just the one game, players opting out, and which teams will be motivated to win, and which are there just to have a good time. But none of that is going to stop me from giving it my best shot! As I've said all year, I don't have inside information, and you're not going to get a ton of deep analysis here- you can find all of that elsewhere. What you will get is a little historical research, some interesting facts, and my opinion. And I'm just picking the winner, not against the point spread.
Now... on with the picks!
Friday, December 17
Bahamas Bowl- Middle Tennessee vs Toledo- The Blue Raiders won 4 of their last 6 to become bowl eligible, but only 1 of their 6 wins (7-5 Marshall) was over a team with a winning record, and they finished 4th in CUSA East. The Rockets won their last 3 to finish 7-5, but only 2 of their wins were over .500 or better teams: 6-6 Ball St and 7-5 WMU, and they ended in 3rd in the MAC West. Toledo is 10-8 all-time in bowl games, but have lost their last 3. This will be their 2nd appearance in the Bahamas Bowl, following a loss in 2018 to FIU by 3 points. MTSU is 2-6 in bowls, their wins coming in 2009 and 2017. This will be the 1st ever matchup between these 2 teams. Toledo wins.
Cure Bowl- Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina- The Huskies finished as MAC champions at 9-4, with 3 wins over teams with a winning record, and a win over Ga Tech. The Chanticleers finished in a tie for 2nd in the SBC East, but at 10-2, have gone 21-3 over the last 2 seasons. NIU is 4-9 in bowls, and have lost 6 straight. They 1st appeared in the California Bowl in 1983 in head coach Bill Mallory's final season (he was followed for 1 season by Lee Corso!). CCU is 0-1 in their only bowl appearance, losing to Liberty in OT in last year's Cure Bowl. This is another 1st ever meeting. CCU wins.
Saturday, December 18
Boca Raton Bowl- WKU vs Appalachian State- The Mountaineers won the SBC East, but lost in the SBCCG to finish 10-3, with the loss ending a 6-game winning streak. The Hilltoppers won 7 straight to win the CUSA West, but lost in the CG to UTSA to end their season at 8-5. ASU is 6-0 in bowl games, and they have appeared in a bowl all 7 years they have been eligible since joining the FBS. WKU is 4-3 in bowls, and this is their 8th bowl in the last 10 years (they were 8-4 in 2013 but didn't go to a bowl). This is their 2nd appearance in the BR Bowl. These teams have met 5 times previously, with ASU holding the 4-1 edge, but none of the meetings were at the FBS level- they were in 1972, 1973, 1984, 1985, and 2000, and it looks like the last meeting, won by ASU, was in the FCS playoffs, judging by the Dec 2 date. This should be a good game! App State wins.
Independence Bowl- UTEP vs Fresno State- The Miners started 6-1, but lost 4 of their last 5 to finish 7-5 and in 4th place in the CUSA West division, and none of their wins was over a team with a winning record- their best win was over 6-6 ODU. The Bulldogs ended their season at 9-3 and in 2nd place in the MWC West, with losses at Oregon, at Hawaii, and to Boise St at home, all bowl teams (though Hawaii is 6-7). UTEP is 5-9 in bowl games, and this is their 3rd straight bowl appearance in the New Mexico Bowl, the previous 2 coming in 2014 and 2010, and they are sporting a 6-game bowl losing streak. In fact, they are 5-3 in the Sun Bowl, and 0-6 in all other bowls (Sun Bowl appearances span from 1936-1967). FSU is 12-13 in bowl games, and this is also their 3rd appearance in the NM Bowl, but 1st since 2009. The Bulldogs 1st appeared in a bowl in 1982. Fresno State leads the series 8-3-1, with UTEP winning 2 of the last 3, but they haven't played since 2004, and 3 of their meetings were in 1938, '39, and '40. Fresno State wins.
Independence Bowl- UAB vs BYU- The Blazers ended their season at 8-4 and 2nd in CUSA West. The Cougars were 10-2, meaning that over the last 2 seasons, they have gone 21-3. UAB is 1-3 in bowl games, their only win coming in 2018, and they have played in 4 different bowls, in 2004, 2017, '18, and '19. The Cougars are 16-21-1 in bowls, with their 1st bowl being the 1974 Fiesta Bowl, and their 1st bowl win being the 1980 Holiday Bowl, 46-45 over SMU (I remember watching that game at my friend Jeff's house on a new cable channel called ESPN!). The Cougars have been in a bowl in 16 of the last 17 years, missing only in 2017. This is the 1st meeting between these teams. BYU wins.
Lending Tree Bowl- Eastern Michigan vs Liberty- The Flames limp into this game losers of their last 3, finishing at 7-5, a big drop from 2020's 10-1 record. The Eagles are also coming off a loss, but won 3 of their last 5 to also finish at 7-5 and in a tie for 4th in the MAC West. A win in this game would mean only the 3rd 8-win or better season in the history of EMU football at the FBS level. Liberty is 2-0 in bowl games, winning in 2019 and 2020, both in the Cure Bowl, and both against Sun Belt teams. EMU is 1-3, their lone win coming in the 1987 California Bowl to SJSU (when they finished 10-2), and losing in 2016, '18, and '19. Liberty won the only previous meeting 25-24 in 1989. Eastern Michigan wins.
LA Bowl- Utah State vs Oregon State- The last we saw the Aggies, they were blowing out SDSU in the MWCCG as they finished 10-3 and winners of 7 of their last 8, with victories @Wash St and @Air Force. The Beavers were 7-5 and finished in 3rd place in the Pac 12 North, losing 3 of their last 5, but with wins over Utah and Arizona St. USU is 5-8 all-time in bowls, and this is their 9th bowl in the last 11 years (4-4 in the 8 leading up to this one). Their 1st bowl was the 1946 Raisin Bowl, and they also played in the 1960 Sun Bowl and the 1961 Gotham Bowl. OSU is 11-6 in bowls, and have won 6 of their last 8, but this is their 1st since the 2013 Hawaii Bowl. Their 1st bowl was the 1941 Rose Bowl, and they are 1-2 all-time in the Rose. The Beavers are 3-0 all-time against the Aggies, winning in 1904, 1997, and 1998. Utah State wins.
New Orleans Bowl- Louisiana vs Marshall- The Ragin' Cajuns defeated App State in the SBCCG to finish 12-1, making them 22-2 over the last 2 seasons, their only losses by 3 last year to CCU, and to Texas in their opener this year, so their current 12-game winning streak is 2nd only to Cincinnati. The Thundering Herd lost 2 of their last 3 games to finish 7-5 and in a tie for 2nd in the CUSA East, but they have no wins over a team with a winning record, their best being over 6-6 teams ODU and @UNT. UL is 6-2 in bowls, winning their 1st 4, before losing 2 straight, then winning their last 2. They are 4-1 in the NO Bowl, and have been in a bowl 9 of the last 11 years. Marshall is 12-4 in bowls, playing their 1st in the 1997 Motor City Bowl, but have lost their last 2. In their 25 years at the FBS level, Marshall has been to a bowl 17 times. This is the 1st ever meeting between these teams. Louisiana wins.
Monday, December 20
Myrtle Beach Bowl- ODU vs Tulsa- The Monarchs won their last 5 games to finish 6-6 and tied for 2nd in the CUSA East, but none of their wins is over a team with a winning record- their best win is over 6-6 MTSU. The Golden Hurricane won their last 3 to also finish 6-6, and were tied for 3rd in the AAC, with their best win was over 8-4 SMU, their only one over a team with a winning record. ODU is 1-0 in bowls, winning the 2016 Bahamas Bowl over Eastern Michigan. Tulsa is 10-12 all-time in bowls; they had a 2-3 run from 1941-45, playing in the Sun, Sugar (twice), Orange, and Oil Bowls, played in the '52 Gator Bowl, The Bluebonnet in '64 and '65, The Independence Bowl in '76 and '89, the Freedom Bowl in '91, and then 12 various bowls from 2003 to this year. This is yet another 1st ever matchup. Tulsa wins.
Tuesday, December 21
Potato Bowl- Kent State vs Wyoming- The Cowboys won 2 of their last 4 to salvage a 6-6 season and finish in a 4th place tie in the MWC Mountain, but had 2 quality road wins over NIU and Utah State. The Golden Flashes lost to NIU in the MACCG to finish 7-6, but their only win over a team with a winning record was over that same NIU team earlier in the year. KSU is 1-2 in bowls, losing in the '72 Tangerine Bowl (the forerunner to the Florida Citrus Bowl) and the '12 GoDaddy Bowl, and winning in the '19 Frisco Bowl over Utah St. Wyoming is 8-8 in bowls, but they won their 1st 4, starting with the 1950 Gator Bowl, and they endured a 6-game bowl losing streak from the 1967 Sugar Bowl through the 1993 Copper Bowl, finally getting a win again in the 2004 Las Vegas Bowl. This is the 1st ever meeting between these 2 teams. I'll probably regret this, but Wyoming wins.
Frisco Bowl- UTSA vs San Diego State- The Aztecs finished 11-2, but are coming off a 33-point loss to Utah State in the MWCCG. The Roadrunners had their best season ever, going 12-1 and winning the CUSACG over WKU. UTSA is 0-2 in bowls, losing 1-score games in both 2016 and 2020. SDSU is 6-9 in bowls, and they've played in a bowl in 11 of the last 12 years, missing only in last year's pandemic shortened season. Their 1st bowl was in the 1969 Pasadena Bowl, and they played in bowls in '86, '91, and '98 before this current run. This is yet another 1st time meeting. SDSU wins.
Wednesday, December 22
Armed Forces Bowl- Missouri vs Army- The Black Knights ended their season on a sour note with a loss to Navy, but that can't diminish their 8-4 season, giving them a 17-7 record the last 2 years. The Tigers won 3 of their last 5 to finish 6-6 and in a 4th place tie in the SEC East, but their only win over a team with a winning record was over 8-4 Central Michigan. Army is 6-3 in bowls, and they've won 4 of the 5 they've played in since 2010, losing to WVU last year. Army also played in 3 bowls in the 80's and 1 in the 90's, but none before then. Missouri is 15-18 in bowls, but have lost their last 2. They played in their 1st bowl in 1924, in the Las Angeles Christmas Festival, and then not again until the 1939 Orange Bowl, but they suffered 7 bowl losses before finally winning the 1960 Orange Bowl, and are 6-6 this century. Mizzou wins.
That's all for this week- only 12 games!
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