Paul's Picks- Bowl Week 2
Welcome Back!
So far this bowl season I am 7-5, a 58.3% winning percentage, which is just kinda mediocre, I guess.
Bowl games are notoriously hard to predict, as it's hard to know the effect of coaches leaving and interims taking over for just the one game, players opting out, and which teams will be motivated to win, and which are there just to have a good time. But none of that is going to stop me from giving it my best shot! As I've said all year, I don't have inside information, and you're not going to get a ton of deep analysis here- you can find all of that elsewhere. What you will get is a little historical research, some interesting facts, and my opinion. And I'm just picking the winner, not against the point spread.
Now... on with the picks!
Thursday, December 23
Frisco Football Classic- North Texas vs Miami, Oh- The Mean Green won their last 5 games to finish 6-6 and in 3rd place in the CUSA West, and were the only team all year to defeat UTSA in the regular season. The Redhawks won 2 of their last 3, and 4 of their last 6, to also end their season at 6-6 and in 2nd place in the MAC East. UNT is 2-9 in bowl games, and have lost 4 straight, their last win coming in the 2013 Heart of Dallas Bowl. They have played in the New Orleans Bowl 5 times, including 4 straight from 2001-2004 as Sun Belt Conference champions. Miami is 7-5 in bowls, and appeared in their 1st bowl, the Tangerine Bowl, in 1962. They have appeared in the Tangerine Bowl 4 times (including 3 straight from 1973-1975, when they went 32-1-1 under head coaches Bill Mallory and Dick Crum) as MAC champions. This is the 1st ever meeting between these teams. North Texas seems to have the momentum, so go with the Mean Green.
Gasparilla Bowl- UCF vs Florida- The Knights started the season 3-3, but went 5-1 over their last 6 games to end their season at 8-4 and in a 3rd place tie in the AAC, with 3 wins over fellow bowl teams. The Gators took the opposite route, starting 4-2, then going 2-4 over their last 6 (though they did win 2 of their last 3) to finish 6-6 and in 6th place in the SEC East, and only 1 win over a bowl team. UCF is 5-7 in bowl games, all since 2005, and this will be their 6th straight season playing in one. UF is 24-22 in bowls, and their 1st 4 appearances were in the Gator Bowl, beginning in 1952. Since 1987, the Gators have only missed playing in a bowl 3 years- 1990 (Steve Spurrier's 1st year), 2013, and 2017. Florida has won both previous meetings: 58-27 in 1999 and 42-0 in 2006. I'm going out on a limb and going with UCF in this one, as they have wanted this matchup for a long time, and are eager to prove they can win.
Friday, December 24
Hawaii Bowl- Memphis vs Hawaii- The Tigers started 3-0, then won only 3 of their remaining 9 games to finish 6-6 and in a tie for 7th place in the AAC. The Rainbow Warriors won their last 2 games to end their season at 6-7 and barely qualify for a bowl, finishing in a 4th place tie in the MWC West division. Memphis has wins over SMU and Mississippi State, while Hawaii has wins over Fresno State and Wyoming. The Tigers are 5-8 in bowl games, playing their 1st in the 1971 Pasadena Bowl, but not again until the 2003 New Orleans Bowl. They broke a 5-game bowl losing streak last year with a win over FAU in the Montgomery Bowl, and this is the 8th straight year they have played in one. Hawaii is 8-6 in bowls, playing all but 2 of their bowl games in Hawaii (Aloha, Oahu, and Hawaii Bowls). Their only 2 times playing elsewhere were in the 2007 Sugar Bowl and the 2020 New Mexico Bowl (1 win and 1 loss). The Warriors 1st appeared in a bowl in 1989, and they have won 3 of their last 4 bowl games. This is another 1st time meeting. Memphis wins.
Saturday, December 25
Camellia Bowl- Georgia State vs Ball State- The Panthers played one of the more difficult schedules, and began 1-4, but they won 6 of their last 7, including a win over Coastal Carolina, to finish 7-5 and in a 2nd place tie in the highly competitive SBC East. The Cardinals lost 2 of their last 3, and 3 of their last 5 to stumble to a 6-6 finish and a last place tie in the competitive MAC West (4-4 conference record). GSU is 2-2 in bowl games, all of them coming since 2015, and this is their 3rd consecutive bowl appearance. BSU is 1-7 in bowls, their only win coming last year in the Arizona Bowl over SJSU. Their 1st bowl appearance was in the 1989 California Bowl, and this is the 3rd time that they have appeared in a bowl in back-to-back seasons. These teams have met twice, in 2015 and 2016, with each team winning on the road. Georgia State wins to achieve the 1st 8-win season in their history!
Monday, December 27
Quick Lane Bowl- Western Michigan vs Nevada- The Broncos won 2 of their last 3 to finish 7-5 and in a last place tie in the competitive MAC West with a 4-4 conference record. The Wolf Pack lost 2 of their last 3, but still finished 8-4 and in 3rd place in the MWC West. WMU is 1-9 in bowl games, their only win coming in the 2015 Bahamas Bowl over MTSU. Their 1st bowl appearance was in the 1988 California Bowl, but their next didn't come until the 2006 International Bowl. Nevada is 7-11 in bowls, but has won 3 of their last 4. Their 1st 2 bowl appearances were in the 1947 Salad Bowl and the 1948 Harbor Bowl, both under HC Joseph Sheekesski (never heard of him, but I love the name!). This is their 14th bowl appearance in the last 17 years. This is yet another 1st ever meeting. Nevada wins.
Military Bowl- Boston College vs East Carolina- The Eagles started the season 4-0, but won only 2 more games the rest of the way to finish 6-6 and tied for last place in the ACC Atlantic, with only 2 wins over bowl teams, and both were 6-6 teams. The Pirates won 4 of their last 5 (loss was to undefeated Cincinnati) to end their season at 7-5 and in a 3-way tie for 3rd in the AAC. BC is 14-13 in bowl games, and played in the 1939 Cotton Bowl, the 1940 Sugar Bowl, and the 1942 Orange Bowl (went 1-2) before their next appearance in the 1982 Tangerine Bowl. They have lost 7 of their last 8 bowls. ECU is 6-9 in bowls, with their 1st appearances in the 1965 Tangerine Bowl and the 1978 Independence Bowl, before semi-regularly appearing in bowls beginning with the 1991 Peach Bowl. They have lost 5 of their last 6, and 8 of their last 10 bowl games. This will be the 1st time these 2 teams have ever met. Just a hunch, but ECU wins.
Tuesday, December 28
Birmingham Bowl- Houston vs Auburn- The Cougars won 11 straight games between their opening loss to Texas Tech and their ACCCG loss to unbeaten Cincinnati, so this is a quality team. The Tigers come in at 6-6, having lost 4 straight and ending their season a last place tie in the SEC West. UH is 11-16-1 in bowl games, and have lost 4 straight. Their 1st appearance was in the 1951 Salad Bowl, followed by the 1962 Tangerine Bowl, and then 4 straight appearances in the Bluebonnet Bowl, then 3 in the Cotton Bowl. The War Eagles are 24-19-2 in bowls, and have lost 4 of their last 5, and 6 of their last 8. Their 1st bowl was the 1936 Bacardi Bowl, followed by the 1937 Orange Bowl, and then 3 consecutive Gator Bowl appearances from 1953-55. The Plainsmen then had another drought before bowl games in 9 out of 12 years from 1963-74, yet another drought before appearing every year from 1982-90, and then 1 final short dry spell before regular bowl appearances beginning in 1995, with 23 bowls in the last 27 years, including this year (this is their 8th consecutive, 1 short of their longest streak). Auburn leads the series 5-1, with Houston's only win coming in the 1969 Bluebonnet Bowl, but Auburn's wins were in 1956, 1957, 1963, 1964, and 1973, so it's been 48 years since they last played. Auburn wins, and gets revenge for their 1969 Bluebonnet Bowl loss, which I'm sure will be a major motivating factor to these kids...
First Responder Bowl- Air Force vs Louisville- The Falcons won their last 3 games to finish 9-3 and tied for 1st in the MWC Mountain, with victories over Wyoming, Boise St, and Nevada, and close losses to bowl teams Utah St, Army, and SDSU, by a combined 17 points. The Cardinals won 2 of their last 3 to finish with a surprising 6-6 record and in a 4th place tie in the ACC Atlantic, but their only win over a team with a winning record was by 7 over UCF at home. AF is 13-11-1 in bowl games, and have won 3 of their last 4. Their 1st 3 bowls were the 1958 Cotton Bowl (tie), the 1963 Gator Bowl, and the 1970 Sugar Bowl (both losses), but they began appearing regularly in 1982, with this being their 25th bowl in the last 40 seasons. Louisville is 11-11-1 in bowls, winning 7 of their last 12. They 1st appeared in the 1970 Pasadena Bowl, followed by the 1977 Independence Bowl, and then semi-regular showings beginning in 1990. This is their 1st ever meeting. Air Force wins.
Liberty Bowl- Mississippi State vs Texas Tech- The Bulldogs won 4 of their last 6 games to finish 7-5 and in a surprising tie for 3rd in the SEC West. The Red Raiders lost their last 2 games and stumbled to 6-6 and a 7th place tie in the Big 12. MSU is 14-10 in bowl games, but have lost 2 of their last 3. Their 1st 2 bowls were the 1936 and 1940 Orange Bowls (1-1 record), but their next wasn't until the 1963 Liberty Bowl. This is the 12th straight season the bulldogs have appeared in a bowl. TTU is 14-23-1 in bowls, and are on a 2-game bowl losing streak, though they won 4 consecutive before then. Their 1st bowl was the 1937 Sun Bowl, followed by the 1938 Cotton Bowl. The Red Raiders appeared in the Sun Bowl 9 times between 1937 and 1993, going 1-8. MSU leads the series 4-2-1, but all the matchups were between 1953 and 1970. Mississippi State wins.
Holiday Bowl- UCLA vs NC State- The Bruins won their last 3 to finish 8-4 and in a tie for 2nd place in the Pac 12 South, but they had 0 wins over teams with a winning record, going 0-4. The Wolfpack won 4 of their last 5, finishing 9-3 and tied for 2nd in the ACC Atlantic. UCLA is 16-19-1 in bowl games, and have lost 2 straight, though their last bowl was in 2017. Their 1st appearance was in the 1942 Rose Bowl, as PCC teams (as they were known then) were only allowed to play in a bowl game if they won the conference (like the Big Ten). It wasn't until 1976 that UCLA played in a bowl other than the Rose, when they played in the Liberty Bowl. NC State is 17-15-1 in bowls, and is also nursing a 2-game bowl losing streak. Their 1st bowl was the 1946 Gator Bowl (coached by a former Tennessee great player by the name of Beattie Feathers!), and their next wasn't until the 1963 Liberty Bowl. The Bruins won both previous meetings in 1959 and 1960, both played in Los Angeles. My brain screams at me to pick the Wolfpack, but my gut thinks the Bruins will be ready for this game. UCLA wins.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl- West Virginia vs Minnesota- The Mountaineers won their last 2 games to get to 6-6 and a 5th place tie in the Big 12. The Golden Gophers won their last 2 to finish 8-4 and in a 2nd place tie in the Big Ten West. WVU is 16-22 in bowl games, and have lost 3 of their last 4, though they beat Army last year. Their 1st bowl was in the 1922 San Diego East-West Christmas Classic, and this is their 18th bowl appearance in the last 20 years. Minnesota is 9-12 in bowls, and have won their last 4. Their 1st bowl was the 1960 (and '61) Rose Bowl, as only Big Ten champions were allowed to go to bowls until the mid-1970s. Their next bowl was the 1977 Hall of Fame Classic, and they have been a semi-regular since 1999. This is yet another 1st time meeting. Gophers win.
Wednesday, December 29
Fenway Bowl- SMU vs Virginia- The Mustangs lost 4 of their last 5 after a 7-0 start, and at 8-4, finished 6th in the AAC. The Cavaliers lost their last 4 to finish 6-6 and in a 3rd place tie in the ACC Coastal, so neither of these teams are exactly coming into this game on a roll. SMU is 7-9-1 in bowl games, and have lost their last 2. Their 1st bowl was the 1924 Dixie Classic, and they played in the 1935 Rose, the 1947 and '48 Cotton Bowls, and then 3 bowls in the 60s (under HC Hayden Fry) and 4 in the early 80s before the NCAA "death penalty" decimated their program and kept them from getting into a bowl until the 2009 season under HC June Jones. UVA is 8-13 in bowls, and though they played their 1st season in 1890 (and 2nd in 1902), they didn't play in their 1st bowl until the 1984 Peach Bowl under HC George Welsh. The Wahoos have lost 4 of their last 5 bowls. This is the 1st time these 2 teams will meet. UVA wins.
Pinstripe Bowl- Maryland vs Virginia Tech- The Terrapins started 4-0, but lost 6 of their last 8 to finish 6-6 and in 5th place in the Big Ten East. The Hokies won 3 of their last 5 to also go 6-6, but were tied for 3rd in the ACC Coastal. Maryland is 11-14-2 in bowl games, and has lost 3 straight, but this is their 1st bowl since 2016. Their 1st bowl appearance was in the 1947 Gator Bowl, and they appeared in 4 other bowls through the 1955 season, then had a run of 6 consecutive bowls from 1973-78 under HC Jerry Claiborne. The Terps had only 1 bowl appearance (1990) between 1985 and 2001, but have been in 10 bowls since (this is their 11th). VT is 13-20 in bowls, and they have also lost 3 straight, but they had a string of 27 consecutive bowl seasons snapped last year. Their 1st bowl was the 1945 Sun Bowl, but the next 2 weren't until the 60s, followed by 3 in the 80s, and then their streak that began in 1993. Maryland leads the series 16-15, and won the most recent meeting in 2013, but the Hokies won the 5 previous matchups. This series began in 1919. Va Tech wins.
Cheez-It Bowl- Clemson vs Iowa State- The Tigers ended their season on a roll, winning their last 5 on their way to a 9-3 record and a 2nd place tie in the ACC Atlantic, their 1st time not winning their division since 2014. The Cyclones had a disappointing season, losing 3 of their last 5 to finish 7-5 and in 4th place in the Big 12, and they will be without the services of star RB Breece Hall, who has opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. Clemson is 25-22 in bowl games, and this is their 17th consecutive year in a bowl, and since 1985, have missed a bowl only 4 times. Their 1st bowl was in the 1939 Cotton Bowl, and they were in 6 bowls between 1948 and 1959, but had a long drought until appearing in 4 bowls in 5 years from 1977 and 1981, culminating in their 1st national championship following the 1981 season under HC Danny Ford. ISU is 5-11 in bowls, and this will be their 5th straight year in a bowl, more than twice their longest such streak in their history. Their 1st bowl was the 1971 Sun Bowl under HC Johnny Majors (another former Tennessee great), though they started playing football in 1895, and after 4 bowls in 8 years (the latter 2 under HC Earle Bruce), they didn't appear in another bowl until the year 2000. As in lots of other bowls, these teams have never met before. Clemson wins.
Alamo Bowl- Oregon vs Oklahoma- The Ducks started the season 9-1, but lost 2 of their last 3, both in blowout fashion in near-identical scores to Utah, the 2nd in the Pac 12 CG. The Sooners also lost 2 of their last 3, but for the 1st time since 2014, did not win the Big 12, but finished in a tie for 2nd and out of the CG. Oklahoma is 30-23-1 in bowl games, but have lost 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 7. Their 1st bowl was the 1938 Orange Bowl, and they have appeared in the Orange 20 times. This is the 23rd consecutive year the Sooners have been to a bowl, starting in 1999. Oregon is 15-19 in bowls, and have won 2 of their last 3. Since 1989, they have only missed a bowl in 5 seasons. Their 1st bowl was the 1916 Rose Bowl, and after a 2nd appearance in 1919, didn't return to a bowl until the 1948 Cotton Bowl, followed by 3 bowls from 1957-63, and then not again until 1989. Oklahoma leads the series 6-1, with wins in 1958, 1966, 1972, 1975, 2004, and the 2005 Holiday Bowl. Oregon's lone win was the most recent matchup, and the only one played in Eugene, in 2006. With both coaches gone to new jobs, it's anyone's guess as to how these teams will look. Flip a coin, but I'm going with Oklahoma, as they are closer to home in this game.
That's all for this week- only 15 games!
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