Paul's Picks- Bowl Week 3
Welcome Back!
So far this bowl season I am 13-10, a 56.5% winning percentage, a slight backslide from where I was last week (7-5). Hopefully, I can finish strong and at least get up over 60%, as it looks like I won't quite make it to 70%.
Bowl games are notoriously hard to predict, as it's hard to know the effect of coaches leaving and interims taking over for just the one game, players opting out, and which teams will be motivated to win, and which are there just to have a good time. But none of that is going to stop me from giving it my best shot! As I've said all year, I don't have inside information, and you're not going to get a ton of deep analysis here- you can find all of that elsewhere. What you will get is a little historical research, some interesting facts, and my opinion. And I'm just picking the winner, not against the point spread.
Now... on with the picks!
Thursday, December 30
Duke's Mayo Bowl- North Carolina vs South Carolina- The Tar Heels began the season in the AP top ten, but after losing their opener, they stumbled to a 6-6 record and a 5th place finish in the ACC Coastal, but with wins over 4 bowl teams. The Gamecocks were also 6-6 and finished in a 4th place tie in the SEC East, but this was better than expected, and they have wins over 3 bowl teams. Both teams come into this game alternating losses with wins over their last 9 games, with both coming off a loss. UNC is 15-20 in bowl games, and have lost 4 of their last 5, but are playing in their 3rd consecutive bowl after a 2-year hiatus (1-1 record in last 2). Their 1st bowl was the 1946 Sugar Bowl, followed closely by the 1948 Sugar and 1949 Cotton Bowls, all losses. The Heels didn't get their 1st bowl win until their next appearance, in the 1963 Gator Bowl, and then they started a string of semi-regular appearances in the 1970 Peach Bowl (under HC Bill Dooley, Vince Dooley's brother). SC is 9-14 in bowls, and while they have lost 2 of their last 3, that recent downturn broke a string of 4 consecutive bowl wins, and this is their 1st bowl appearance since the 2018 season. Their 1st bowl was in the 1945 Gator Bowl, but their 2nd wasn't until the 1969 Peach Bowl. The Gamecocks didn't get their 1st bowl win until the 1994 Carquest Bowl, their 9th bowl appearance, and that started a streak of 3 straight, and 4 wins in 5 attempts through the 2006 Liberty Bowl. UNC leads the series 35-19-4 (they shared a conference together for many years), but SC has won 3 of the last 4 meetings (since 2007), 6 of the last 8 (since 1988), and 12 of the last 18 (since 1967). Just a hunch, but SC wins a close one.
Music City Bowl- Tennessee vs Purdue- The Volunteers had a better than expected season, going 7-5 and finishing 3rd in the SEC East, winning 3 of their last 4, and had 3 wins over bowl teams. The Boilermakers were also better than expected, finished 8-4 and in a 2nd place tie in the Big Ten West, and got there on the strength of winning 4 of their last 5 games. They also had 3 wins over bowl teams. Tennessee is 29-24 in bowl games, and are currently riding a 4-game bowl winning streak, but this is only their 2nd bowl in the last 5 years. UT 1st appeared in a bowl in the 1938 Orange Bowl, which began a string of 6 bowls in 8 years under Gen Bob Neyland (whom the stadium is named after) -twice- and John Barnhill. After a couple of 3-year dry spells in the late 40s and early 50s, the Vols had a 7-year absence from 1958-1964 before beginning regular appearances in the 1965 Bluebonnet Bowl under HC Doug Dickey. After another 4-year break in the mid-70s, UT began a string of 28 bowls in 32 years, beginning with the 1979 Bluebonnet Bowl under HC Johnny Majors. Since 2010, this will be only their 5th appearance in the last 11 years. Purdue is 10-9 in bowls, and have won 3 of their last 5, but this is only their 3rd bowl in the last 9 years. Their 1st bowl was the 1966 Rose Bowl (QB Bob Griese- you may have heard of him...), but their next wasn't until the 1978 Peach Bowl. PU had a streak of 8 straight bowl appearances from 1997-2004, and added 2 more after missing out in 2005, all under HC Joe Tiller. Purdue won the only previous matchup, 27-22 in the 1979 Bluebonnet Bowl. UT gets revenge, as the players are itching to repay that loss, I'm sure...
Chick-Fil-A Bowl- Pittsburgh vs Michigan State- The Panthers won 9 of their last 10, including a win over Wake Forest in the ACCCG to finish 11-2 with their only losses to Miami and, inexplicably, to WMU out of the MAC. The Spartans started 8-0 but lost 2 of their last 4- both by double digits- to finish 10-2 and in 3rd place in the Big Ten East. Pitt is 14-21 in bowl games, with 4 losses in their last 5 bowls, but their most recent appearance, in 2019, was a win over EMU. Their 1st 4 bowl appearances were all in the Rose Bowl- in 1927, 1929, 1932, and 1936, with their only win in '36. They had 2 bowl appearances in '55 and '56, and then not again until Johnny Majors arrived as HC in 1973, which began a string of 10 bowls in 11 years (6-4 record). Then after only 3 bowls in the succeeding 16 years, Pitt appeared in 16 bowls over the next 20 years, from 2000-2019. MSU is 13-16 in bowls, and has won 6 of their last 8 as this is their 13th appearance in the last 15 years (6-6 in that span). Their 1st bowl was the 1953 Rose Bowl, and after 2 more appearances in the Rose in '55 and '64, began appearing regularly in bowls beginning with the 1984 Cherry Bowl. MSU leads the series 6-0-1, with the tie coming in 1960. Their last 2 meetings were in 2006-07, but all the others were between 1945 and 1958. This was a highly anticipated game until Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and MSU RB Kenneth Walker III both opted out. I initially chose the Panthers to win, but I think it's a little easier to replace a RB than a QB, especially when the opposing team's weakness is their pass defense. MSU wins.
Las Vegas Bowl- Wisconsin vs Arizona State- The Badgers had a horrible start to their season, going 1-3, but then won 7 straight before losing to Minnesota in their finale to finish 8-4 and in a tie for 2nd in the Big Ten West. The Sun Devils had an identical 8-4 record and also tied for 2nd in their division, the Pac 12 South. But UW had 3 wins over bowl teams while ASU had only 1. UW is 17-15 in bowl games, and have won 6 of their last 7, their only loss in that span by 1 to Oregon in the 2019 Rose Bowl. This is the 20th consecutive season ending in a bowl appearance, and the 27th in the last 29 years. Their 1st bowl was the 1952 Rose Bowl, and they played in the Rose 2 more times- in 1959 and 1962- before the 1981 Garden State Bowl, but their 1st win wasn't until the 1982 Independence Bowl, and they followed that with 1 more loss in the 1984 Hall of Fame Classic before starting their long run in the 1993 Rose Bowl. ASU is 15-16-1 in bowls, but they've lost 7 of their last 10 stretching back to 2006. Their 1st bowl was the 1939 Sun Bowl, which they also played in in 1940, and then the Salad Bowl in 1949 and '50, before finally getting back into the bowl scene in the 1970 Peach Bowl under HC Frank Kush. ASU leads the series 3-1, with wins in 1967, 1968, and 2013, and their lone loss in 2010. Wisconsin wins.
Friday, December 31
Gator Bowl- Wake Forest vs Rutgers- The Demon Deacons had a breakthrough season, going 10-3, though they lost 3 of their last 5, including the ACCCG to Pitt, but they did have wins over 6 bowl teams. The Scarlet Knights went 5-7, losing 3 of their last 4 to finish 6th in the Big Ten East, and have no wins over teams with even a .500 record, but they're a replacement team for Texas A&M, who dropped out. WF is playing in their 6th consecutive bowl game, and are 9-6 overall. Their 1st bowl was the 1945 Gator Bowl, and after the 1948 Dixie Bowl, didn't play in another until the 1979 Tangerine Bowl, then the 1992 Independence Bowl, followed by the 1999 Aloha Classic. They began making more regular appearances starting with the 2002 Seattle Bowl under HC Jim Grobe. Rutgers is 6-4 in bowls, and though they played in the very 1st recognized college football game in 1869, they didn't appear in a bowl until the 1978 Garden State Bowl, and then not again until the 2005 Insight Bowl, which started a string of 9 bowls in 10 years, the 1st 6 of those under current HC Greg Schiano during his 1st stint at the school. These teams have met twice previously, in 1997 and 1999, with the Deacons winning both times. Wake wins again.
Sun Bowl- Washington State vs Central Michigan- The Cougars won 3 of their last 4, and 6 of their last 8 to end up with a 7-5 record and in 2nd place in the Pac 12 North, but have only 2 wins over bowl teams. The Chippewas won their last 4 games to finish 8-4 and in a tie for 1st in the MAC West, and had wins over 5 bowl teams. WSU is 8-8 in bowl games, but have lost 3 of their last 4. Their 1st bowl was in the 1930 Rose Bowl, but their 2nd wasn't until the 1981 Holiday Bowl, with bowl appearances being sporadic until 5 straight between 2015 and 2019. CMU is 3-9 in bowl games, with 5 straight losses since their last win in the 2012 Little Caesars Bowl. Their 1st bowl was the 1990 California Bowl, followed by the 1994 Las Vegas Bowl (both losses); this is their 11th bowl in the last 16 seasons. This is a 1st ever meeting between these 2 teams. Wazzu wins.
Arizona Bowl- Central Michigan vs Boise State- This game has been canceled, with CMU moving to the Sun Bowl to play Washington State, replacing Miami, Fla.
Cotton Bowl- Cincinnati vs Alabama- The Bearcats are the only undefeated team in all of FBS, and were obviously the AAC champions, and included in those 13 wins were victories over 7 bowl teams. The Crimson Tide went 12-1, and were the only team to defeat Georgia (in the SECCG), and had wins over 10 bowl teams. UC is 9-10 in bowls, and have won 2 of their last 3. Their 1st bowl was the 1997 Humanitarian Bowl, and this is their 4th consecutive season in a bowl. UA is 44-26-3, and has the most bowl wins of any team in history. Their 1st bowl was the 1925 Rose Bowl, and since then, their longest drought without a bowl has been 5 years, from 1954-1958 ('58 was Bear Bryant's 1st year). 1959 started a streak of 25 straight bowls, broken in 1984 when the Tide went 5-6 in HC Ray Perkins 2nd year. This is their 18th straight bowl appearance since 2002, and their 7th appearance in the 8 years of the CFP. Alabama has won all 5 previous meetings- in 1908, 1982, 1984 (the only 1 played in Ohio), 1985, and 1990. As much as I like to pull for the underdog and may want the Bearcats to pull the upset, I just don't see it happening. Alabama wins.
Orange Bowl- Georgia vs Michigan- The Bulldogs went undefeated in the regular season before getting blown out by Alabama in the SECCG to finish 12-1, but they had 9 wins over bowl teams. The Wolverines also went 12-1, but finished as Big Ten champions after routing Iowa in the CG, and they also had 9 wins over bowl teams (if you count 5-7 Rutgers, who replaces Texas A&M in the Gator Bowl), including over Ohio State for the 1st time in HC Jim Harbaugh's7 years in Ann Arbor, which means they are coming into this game on a 5-game winning streak. UGA is 33-21-3 in bowl games (personal note- I was in the Redcoat Band and attended 2 of the 3 ties- in 1984 against FSU and 1985 against Arizona), and they have won 6 of their last 7 bowl games, 6 of 8 if you count the CFPCG loss. Their 1st bowl was the 1941 Orange Bowl, followed by the 1942 Rose Bowl, and they also appeared in the 1945 Oil Bowl and the 1950 Presidential Cup, among others, under legendary HC Wally Butts (he has a building on campus named after him, and he was 5-2-1 in bowl games). When Vince Dooley arrived in 1964, he led the Dawgs to 20 bowls in 25 years (8-10-2 record), then Ray Goff was 2-2 in 7 years, followed by Jim Donnan, who went 4-0 in 5 years, and started the current string of 25 straight bowl games, the longest current streak in the FBS. Mark Richt was 9-5 in bowls, interim coach Bryan McClendon was 1-0, and current HC Kirby Smart is 4-1 (4-2 with the CFP CG). UM is 21-27 in bowls, and have lost their last 4, and 6 of their last 7, and are tied with Ohio State and Nebraska for the most bowl losses in history. Their 1st bowl was the 1902 Rose Bowl, the 1st bowl game ever played, but they didn't play another until the 1947 Rose. In fact, their 1st 6 appearances were in the Rose (only the Big Ten champion was allowed to play in a bowl, and only allowed in the Rose for many years), and 10 of their 1st 11. Their 1st non-Rose appearance was in the 1975 Orange Bowl, and then the 1979 Gator Bowl. The Wolverines appeared in 33 straight bowl games from 1975-2007, which is 3rd longest in FBS history behind FSU (36 years, 1982-2017) and Nebraska 35 years, 1969-2003). The series is tied at 1 win apiece, with both games being played in Ann Arbor. UM won the 1st contest 26-0 in 1957 and UGA won 15-7 in 1965. This should be a great game, with strengths pitted against strengths. Dawgs win a close one to set up a rematch with Alabama, and all the SEC haters gnash their teeth a little harder.
Saturday, January 1
Outback Bowl- Penn State vs Arkansas- The Nittany Lions began the season 5-0, then lost 3 straight, before ending 2-2 to finish 7-5 and in 4th place in the Big Ten East. The Razorbacks followed a similar trajectory, starting 4-0, losing 3 straight, then finishing 4-1 to end up at 8-4 and in a 3rd place tie in the SEC West. PSU is 30-18-2 in bowl games, and has won 2 of their last 3. Their 1st bowl was the 1922 Rose Bowl, but their next wasn't until the 1947 Cotton Bowl, followed by the 1959 Liberty Bowl (their 1st win after going 0-1-1), which began a string of 4 straight appearances. Beginning in 1967, the Lions have appeared in a bowl in 45 of 55 years, including this year. UA is 15-24-3 in bowls, and has won 3 of their last 4, though they lost in their last appearance, the 2016 Belk Bowl (their bowl last year was canceled). Their 1st bowl was the 1933 Dixie Classic (a tie), and their next was the 1946 Cotton Bowl (another tie), and their 1st win was the 1947 Dixie Bowl (these last 2 were under HC John Barnhill, who also coached at Tennessee; oddly enough, their next bowl team, the 1954 Cotton Bowl, was coached by Bowden Wyatt, who also coached-and played- at Tennessee). Starting in 1959, the Razorbacks have been semi-regulars in bowls, never going more than 3 years until this last 4- year break, but that was only because of the cancellation (and at 3-7, they didn't really deserve a bowl...). These teams have never played each other before, not even in a bowl game, which is odd considering both have been playing since at least 1908, and PSU had a long history as an independent before joining the Big Ten in 1993, and they have played in a combined 92 bowl games. This has the makings of a fantastic game. Arkansas wins.
Fiesta Bowl- Oklahoma State vs Notre Dame- The Cowboys went 11-1 and finished 1st in the Big 12 before losing to Baylor in the CG. The Fighting Irish also went 11-1 in the regular season, with their only loss to undefeated Cincinnati at home, and they finished strong, winning their last 6 games by 10 points or more. OSU is 20-11 in bowl games, and they have won 8 of their last 11. This is the 16th consecutive year they have played in a bowl, and the 19th time in the last 20 years. Their 1st bowl was the 1944 Cotton Bowl followed by the 1945 Sugar Bowl, both wins, and then they played in something called the Delta Bowl in 1948 and the Bluegrass Bowl in 1958. The Irish are 19-20 in bowls, and played in their 1st bowl in 1924, the Rose Bowl under HC Knute Rockne (you may have heard of him...). Their next bowl wasn't until the 1969 Cotton Bowl, which was also their 1st loss, and since then, have never gone more than 2 years between bowl appearances. They have lost 2 of their last 3 bowls. Again, for 2 teams with a long history of playing college football and a combined 70 bowl appearances, they have never met on the field of play, which is hard to believe. This is a coin flip type of game, but I like the momentum the Irish are coming into the game with, and the fact that they will be trying to prove that they are more than their previous coach. ND wins.
Citrus Bowl- Iowa vs Kentucky- The Hawkeyes rolled out of the gate at 6-0, then lost 2 straight before winning their last 4, only to get routed by Michigan in the Big Ten CG and ultimately end up with a 10-3 record. The Wildcats also started 6-0, but lost 3 straight before recovering to win their last 3 and finish 9-3 and in 2nd in the SEC East. Both teams had 5 wins over other bowl teams. Iowa is 17-15-1 in bowl games, and has won their last 3. Their 1st bowl was the 1956 Rose Bowl, with the 1958 Rose next, and both were wins. However, their next bowl appearance was the 1981 Rose, which was their 1st loss, and since that appearance, they've only missed a bowl in 9 seasons, with their longest drought being 3 seasons, from 1998-2000. UK is 11-9 in bowls, and they are also sporting a 3-game bowl winning streak. Their 1st bowl was the 1947 Great Lakes Bowl under HC Bear Bryant, and after 4 bowls in 5 years under Bryant, did not appear in a bowl again until the 1976 Peach Bowl under HC Fran Curci. This is their 6th straight year in a bowl, beating their previous best of 5 years from 2006-2010, and a win in this game would give the Cats only their 4th 10-win season in their history (their best season was 11-1 in 1950). It is amazing to me that 2 teams that have been around for more than 100 years, and have a combined 53 bowl appearances, have never met on a football field, but this will be their 1st ever meeting. Kentucky wins.
Rose Bowl- Utah vs Ohio State- The Utes started the season 1-2, then reeled off 9 consecutive wins, including 2 over Oregon, the 2nd in the Pac 12 CG. The Buckeyes went 10-2, their 1st season with 2 losses since 2017, and 1 of those losses was to that same Oregon team, albeit early in September. Utah is 17-6 in bowls, and has won 5 of their last 7, though the 2 losses were in their last 2 bowls, both by double digits. Their 1st bowl was the 1938 Sun Bowl, followed by the 1964 Liberty Bowl, but it wasn't until the 1992 Copper Bowl (their 1st loss) that they started appearing regularly. OSU is 26-27 in bowls, and has won 3 of their last 4 bowls (3 of 5 if you count their last CFP CG appearance), and are tied with Michigan and Nebraska for the most bowl losses in history. Their 1st bowl was the 1920 Rose Bowl, with 9 more Rose appearances spread between 1949 and 1975 before playing in the Orange Bowl in 1976. Since their 5th Rose Bowl appearance in 1969, the Buckeyes have only missed a bowl in 6 seasons over the 54 years, and 2 were in 1969 and 1971. Pretty impressive! OSU won the only previous meeting, defeating the Utes on September 27, 1986 in Columbus by the score of 64-6. UU gets revenge. Utah wins.
Sugar Bowl- Baylor vs Ole Miss- The Bears were one of the surprise teams in all of college football, finishing 2nd in the Big 12, defeating Oklahoma State in the CG, and ending up with an 11-2 record, their 2nd 11-win season in 3 years. The Rebels went 10-2, finished 2nd in the SEC West, and like Baylor, ended the season on a 4-game winning streak. Baylor is 13-12 in bowl games, and has won 3 of their last 4. Their 1st bowl was the 1948 Dixie Bowl, and they played in 6 bowls between 1951 and 1963 before appearing in the Cotton Bowl in 1974. They had a run of 8 bowls between 1979 and 1994, and then a long drought, and since 2010, this will be their 10th bowl in the last 12 seasons. Ole Miss is 24-14 in bowls, and they've won 8 of their last 9, stretching back to 2002. Their 1st bowl was the 1935 Orange Bowl, then the 1947 Delta Bowl. Starting with the 1952 Sugar Bowl, under HC John Vaught, the Rebels appeared in 18 bowls in 20 years, but that was followed by an 11 year hiatus. The Bears won the only previous meeting in September of 1975 in Waco, 20-10. Ole Miss wins and gets their 1st ever 11-win season.
Tuesday, January 4
Texas Bowl- LSU vs Kansas State- The Tigers won their last 2 games to get to 6-6, but still finished tied for last in the SEC West. However, they did end up with 4 wins over bowl teams. The Wildcats were a team of streaks- they won their 1st 3, lost 3, won 4, then lost their last 2 to finish 7-5 and in a tie for 5th in the Big 12. They also had 4 wins over bowl teams. LSU is 28-23-1 in bowl games, and has won 4 of their last 5 (5 of 6 if you count the CFP CG). Their 1st bowl was the 1935 Sugar Bowl, their 1st of 3 consecutive years appearing in the Sugar, all losses. Their 1st win was in the 1943 Orange Bowl, and they played in the Cotton Bowl in 1946 and the Sugar again in '49 before showing up regularly beginning with the 1958 Sugar Bowl. Their longest bowl-less drought since 1958 has been 6 years, from 1989-1994, and they had appeared in a bowl for 20 straight seasons before the string was broken last year. The Wildcats are 9-13 in bowls, and have won 2 of their last 3. Their 1st bowl was the 1982 Independence Bowl, though they had been playing football since at least 1912. Their next bowl- and 1st bowl win- was in the 1993 Copper Bowl under legendary HC Bill Snyder, which began a streak of 11 straight appearances. The Bayou Bengals won the only previous matchup, 21-0 in September of 1980 in Baton Rouge. You can flip a coin on this one. LSU wins.
That's all for this week- only 14 games!
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