Paul's Picks- National Championship Game

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Welcome Back!

This will be my final blog for the 2021 College Football season. For those faithful few who have read all (or most) of my thoughts, I thank you! I hope you have enjoyed reading these as much as I have enjoyed producing them. As I am always looking to improve, feel free to leave any comments on how I can do better for next year. Now, on with the show!

For the bowl season, I was 21-17 for a .553 winning percentage, which is pretty poor for me.  For the season, I was 652-234, or 73.6%, which I consider only fair. My goal every year is to reach 80% (which I've never reached), but I always strive to at least stay above 75%, which I was able to do until we got to November (week 10). But even though I finished below where I wanted to be, it was still better than last year's dismal performance of just over 70%. 

But now it all comes down to the final contest, the National Championship Game. Alabama is the team almost everyone thought would be here from the beginning, and Georgia is the team that played the best all year, except for 1 game- against the Tide in the SECCG. Let's start with some statistical comparisons. All stats come from the official NCAA site, NCAA.com.

Alabama

Georgia

Offense

Statistic

NCAA Rank

Statistic

NCAA Rank

Total Offense

494.6

6

444.9

23

Scoring

41.4 ppg

3

38.8 ppg

9

Passing

336

8

253.9

47

Pass Efficiency

172.22

4

168.53

5

Yds/Completion

13.63

23

14.39

10

Completion %

0.671

12

0.648

28

Fewest INTs

5

10

12

85

Sacks Allowed

2.71/gm

102

.79/gm

2

Rushing

158.6

72

191

36

Yds/Carry

4.27

68

5.27

14

TFL Allowed

6.43/gm

101

3.14/gm

2

Fumbles Lost

6

42

4

11

Red Zone Offense

0.922

7

0.836

72

RZ TDs/FGs

45/14

40/16

1st Downs

348

5

320

13

3rd Down Conversions

0.527

2

0.454

19

4th Down Conversions

0.529

61

0.6

35

4th Down Conversions

9-17

44819

Time of Possession

31

18

30

40

Defense

Statistic

NCAA Rank

Statistic

NCAA Rank

Total Defense

299.8

6

253.1

2

Scoring

19.21 ppg

13

9.64 ppg

1

Passing

217.6

49

171.7

3

Pass Efficiency

130.75

54

101.43

1

Yds/Completion

10.88

11

9.69

2

INT/TDs

15/2

13

14/3

25

Sacks

3.71/gm

3

3.21/gm

10

Rushing

82.1

4

81.4

3

Yds/Carry

2.53

2

2.65

3

TFL

8.0/gm

3

6.3/gm

43

Fumbles Recovered

5

87

5

87

Red Zone Defense

.838

70

0.571

1

RZ TDs/FGs

20/11

8/8

1st Downs Allowed

243

39

207

6

3rd Down Defense

.310

7

0.351

31

4th Down Defense

.548

79

0.4

25

4th Down Defense

17-31

10-25

Defensive TDs

2

25

3

12

Turnover Margin

+0.64

18

+0.21

49

Special Teams

Statistic

NCAA Rank

Statistic

NCAA Rank

KOR

25.33

16

18.73

89

KOR Defense

18.48

27

13.9

13

Net Punting

36.82

106

41.34

26

PR

8.21

61

9.06

51

PR Defense

6.08

42

11.09

113

Blocked Kicks

3

21

4

9

BK Allowed

1

30

0

1

Blocked Punts

3

7

2

17

BP Allowed

1

64

0

1

Penalties

100

117

67

32

Penalties/Game

7.14

106

4.79

15

Penalty Yds/Game

66.64

114

40.57

13


Now... on with the pick!

National Championship Game- Georgia vs Alabama (Indianapolis)- The Crimson Tide won the SEC Championship Game over the Bulldogs 41-24 back on December 4, and these teams are meeting again a little more than one month later. For some reason, Las Vegas established the Dawgs as early betting favorites, despite the blowout in December. As you can tell from the stats above, these teams are very comparable, with UGA holding the slight edge in most categories on defense and UA doing the same on offense. Special teams are all over the place, but if it were to come down to a game winning FG, both kickers are capable. Jack Podlesny for UGA is 19 of 24 (.792) and Will Reichard of Bama is 18 of 23 (.783).

The Tide added to their FBS leading bowl victories with their Cotton Bowl win over Cincinnati, and are now 45-26-3, for a .628 winning percentage. The Dawgs are 34-21-3 after their Orange Bowl victory over Michigan, which translates to a .612 winning percentage. Alabama leads the series 42-25-4, and has won the last 7 dating back to 2008. That streak includes 3 wins in the SECCG and 1 win in the NC Game. The current 7-game winning streak for the Tide is the longest for either side, with UGA's longest streak being 5, from 1910-1916. The largest margin of victory for Alabama was 36-0 in 1905; for Georgia it was 35-0 in 1948. 

I expect a much closer game than the 17-point margin the Tide laid on the Dawgs in the SECCG. For the Tide to win, they need to replicate what they did against UGA in December- protect QB Bryce Young, get a lead and force UGA to play from behind, force UGA into 2nd-and-long and/or 3rd-and-long situations, and force FGs when/if UGA gets in the red zone. For the Dawgs to win, they need to pressure QB Bryce Young into mistakes and early throws, continue to keep the UA running game in check, convert on 3rd downs, and not settle for FGs when they get into the red zone. This game may turn on special teams. The Tide has the advantage on punt returns, so the UGA punt coverage will be crucial to keeping them bottled up. On the opposing side, the Dawgs have done well with blocking kicks and punts all year, and if they can keep the Tide from breaking a long return (or even a modest one), they have a good chance of winning the field position battle. One final key to this game may come down to UGA's running game. If they can successfully run against the Alabama defense, they could give their defense some rest and allow their depth to be an asset, as it's possible they could wear down the Tide defense, as they lack the quality depth UGA has. As always, this game will come down to play in the trenches.

I think the UGA staff has studied their mistakes from the 1st game and will be ready this time around, much like against Auburn in 2017, when they were routed in the regular season, and then came back to win in the SECCG. I've been riding with the Dawgs all season, so no reason to stop now. Dawgs win, 31-20.


I'll post on Twitter and Facebook when my next blog posts, but I will begin my previews for the 2022 season sometime in July. In the meantime, I may post before then as news happens (or the Spirit moves me). Follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!  

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