TWIF Notes 8-29-22
Welcome Back!
What an exciting opening weekend of football, even if it was a bit sparse. We had some expected results, but we also had some surprises. Let's get to the recaps!
WKU struggled a bit with Austin Peay, pulling away late to win 38-27. This may only have been opening week jitters, but it may portend an arduous season for the Hilltoppers. Fortunately, they were able to pull out the victory, but they'll have a much more difficult task next week on the road against Hawaii.
Northwestern overcame a double-digit deficit (twice!) to defeat Nebraska 31-28 in Dublin, Ireland. What I saw was poor tackling on the part of the Nebraska defense, and several passes bouncing off the hands of the Cornhusker receivers. The Wildcats ran wild through the Huskers' defense, especially in the 4th quarter, rolling up 527 total yards (214 on the ground) for the game, winning the turnover battle 3-1 and dominating the TOP. Nebraska is now 5-21 in one score games under HC Scott Frost, 3-21 when trailing at halftime, 15-30 overall, and has now lost 7 straight games (all by single digits, the 1st time in major CFB history according to BTNStatsGuys), and unless that gets turned around soon, this may be his last year in Lincoln. For now, the question becomes, just how good is Northwestern? Are they good enough to challenge for the Big Ten West Title, which they won in 2018 and 2020, or is this victory more about the incompetence of the Cornhuskers? We may know more in 2 weeks when the Wildcats host Duke.
UNLV crushed Idaho State 52-21, a result that was not unexpected.
Utah State overcame a sluggish start to defeat pesky UConn 31-20, scoring 24 straight points in the 2nd quarter to overcome an early 14-0 deficit, but the result may have been different if the Huskies hadn't lost their starting QB in the 1st quarter and had to turn to a true freshman backup. I was very impressed with the UConn running game (6.3 ypc) and their defense (which eventually got worn down), but were these a result of improvements by the Huskies, or are the Aggies taking a step back from last year? Or was it just typical 1st game inconsistencies that will be worked out as the season goes along?
Illinois dominated Wyoming 38-6, holding the Cowboys to 2 FGs and 1-12 on 3rd down conversions. The Illini defense held Wyoming to just 212 total yards that included 30 yards passing, 5 completions on 20 attempts with an interception, a +2 turnover margin, and a +12 minute TOP margin. This may be a long season for the Cowboys, but it's possible that the Illini may be ready to move into the top 4 of the Big Ten West! Ok, maybe let's not get too far ahead of ourselves...
FSU stomped Duquesne 47-7, just as they should have.
FAU gave up a quick TD, then scored the next 33 points en route to routing Charlotte 43-13. This gives the Owls the start they needed, and sends the 49ers back to the drawing board, as they were overcome both offensively and defensively.
North Carolina let Florida A&M hang around for 3 quarters before exploding for 21 unanswered points in the 4th to win 56-24. The Tar Heels will need to play much better as they take on 2 of the best SBC teams the next 2 weeks.
North Texas turned a 14-13 halftime lead into a 31-13 blowout with 17 unanswered 2nd half points to defeat UTEP. Looking at the stats, you would have thought this was a close game- each team had 1 turnover, UNT had only 2 more 1st downs, UTEP had 1 more total yard, and penalties and ypc rushing were very similar. So what happened? Maybe 3rd down efficiency. The Mean Green was 6-12 on 3rd downs, and 1-1 on 4th; the Miners were 7-18 on 3rd, 2-6 on 4th. This loss makes it more difficult for UTEP to reach their goal of back-to-back winning seasons, but this win might just portend a special season for UNT.
Nevada parlayed a +5 turnover margin into a 23-12 victory over New Mexico State. The Aggies had 4 turnovers in the 1st half, leading to a 17-2 halftime deficit, but fought back to get within 20-12 in the 4th quarter before giving up a late FG that led to the final margin. If NMSU can cut down on the TO problem (and maybe get a few for themselves), they have a chance to get a few wins this year, as they looked impressive at times. Nevada should be happy with the win, but they'll need to play better if they hope to win any MWC games.
Vanderbilt scored the final 49 points as they romped to a 63-10 win over Hawaii. The Commodores had a 35 point explosion in the 3rd quarter that blew open what had been a close game (21-10 at the half), as the offense produced 601 total yards, with 404 yards on the ground on 44 carries (9.2 ypc)! This was Vandy's largest MOV since defeating Presbyterian 58-0 in 2012, was their most points since defeating Davidson 63-8 in 1969, and was their largest MOV against a current FBS foe since a 56-0 victory over Marshall in 1948 (though they did have a 67-7 win over Washington & Lee of the Southern Conference in 1952, which at the time was still a major conference). One interesting stat is that the 2 teams combined to go 1-9 on 4th down conversion attempts. Maybe Vandy will win a few more games than expected, but the more likely explanation is that the Rainbow Warriors have a LOT of improving to do if they hope to win any games in the MWC. Their game against Nevada at home on Oct 15 should be interesting.
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