Paul's Picks Week 4
Welcome Back!
I had my best week yet, as I went 60-12, or 83.3%! It was my first time over 80% this year. Overall I am 197-51, or 79.4%, which is a 1.6% improvement. Hopefully, I can continue to improve.
There are some very difficult to predict matchups this week, but only 66 games.
On to the picks!
Thursday, September 22
West Virginia @ Virginia Tech- This game could go a long way toward defining the season for both teams. The Mountaineers lead the series 29-23-1, and won 27-21 last year, but the Hokies have won 3 of the last 4, and 10 of the last 14, dating back to 1994. They 1st played in 1912, but after playing 4 times through 1917, they didn't play again until 1952. WVU won 11 of the 1st 15 played, but are only 7-12-1 in Blacksburg, as this game, besides being played there and in Morgantown, has been played in Charleston, WV, Huntington, WV, Bluefield, WV, Richmond, Va, and Landover, Md. Both are coming off short weeks, but while WVU has the worse record, they have played a tougher schedule. Mountaineers win a close one.
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State- This is sort of an odd series, as the Panthers lead 3-2 with each team winning all of the games as the away team. In other words, the home team is 0-5 in this series! The Chanticleers are one of 2 remaining unbeaten Sun Belt teams (JMU is the other at 2-0), and GSU is the lone remaining winless team, but something tells me that's about to change. CCU is 3-0, but their "big" win is by 10 over a 1-2 Army with its lone victory over an FCS team. The Panthers are 0-3, but could just as easily be 3-0 as they lost against 2 P5 teams and in an upset against Charlotte, where they played a very sloppy game. I think they come out focused again and take it to the Chanticleers. GSU in an upset.
Chattanooga @ Illinois- The Illinis will easily take care of the Mocs in this 1st ever meeting.
Friday, September 23
Virginia @ Syracuse- These teams have played 5 times previously, with the Cavaliers holding the 3-2 edge. The Orange won the 1st 2 played, in 1975 and '77, and the Wahoos won the last 3, in 2004, '05, and '15. UVA has only scored 19 combined points in their last 2 games, and have lost their last 3 road games. Syracuse has scored at least 31 in every game so far this year. Syracuse wins.
Nevada @ Air Force- The Wolf Pack opened the season 2-0 but have lost their last 2, to an FCS team and to Iowa. The Falcons also opened 2-0, then were upset last week by Wyoming, which currently puts them in last place in the MWC Mountain Division. AF leads the series 4-2, with all games played since 2012, and they are 2-1 at home. Air Force wins.
Boise State @ UTEP- The Broncos are 6-0 against the Miners, with the 1st meeting being in the 2000 Humanitarian Bowl. None of the games have been closer than that 1st meeting, a 15 point win by the Broncs. BSU wins.
Saturday, September 24
Kent State @ Georgia- Back in 1998, the Bulldogs routed the Golden Flashes 56-3. Expect a similar result. Dawgs win big.
Maryland @ Michigan- This is a clash of 2 undefeated teams, and the 1st time the Wolverines are playing a team with a pulse, as their previous foes currently have a combined record of 2-9, with both wins over FCS teams. The Terrapins haven't faced much better, as their opponents are a combined 3-7, but 2 of those wins were over FBS teams. Michigan leads the series, 1st played in 1985, 9-1, with Maryland's lone win coming in 2014 in Ann Arbor (their 1st year in the Big Ten). Prior to that win, they had met only 3 times, in '85, '89, and '90. Michigan wins what could be a close one.
Clemson @ Wake Forest- The Tigers lead this series 69-17-1, and have won the last 13. The Demon Deacons are only 10-26-1 at home in the series, and I don't see that changing much in the near future. I still don't think Clemson is a great team this year, but they do have a great defense, and there may not be many (if any) teams in the ACC that can challenge them. Wake isn't one of them. Tigers win.
Baylor @ Iowa State- The Bears lead the series 11-9, and won last year, but the Cyclones have won 3 of the last 5, and are 6-4 in Ames. The last 6 games have all been decided by 14 points or less (4 by 7 or less) so I expect another close one. ISU has won 4 of their last 5 while Baylor has won 14 of their last 17. Iowa State wins at home.
Central Michigan @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions defeated the Chippewas 40-3 in their only other meeting in 2005. It will be very similar this time. PSU wins.
Rhode Island @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers will rout the Rams in this 1st ever meeting.
Missouri @ Auburn- This is only the 2nd meeting in the regular season, with the Auburn Tigers winning the 1st in 2017 51-14. However, the Missouri Tigers defeated the Plainsmen in the 1973 Sun Bowl, with the War Eagles winning the 2013 SECCG, so AU leads the series 2-1. Neither team has looked very impressive in the early going this season, as they have similar profiles: a win against an FCS team, a win over a G5 team, and a blowout loss against a P5 team (by an almost identical score). I'm confident the Tigers will win this, but which Tigers? This is a true coin flip game, and though Auburn is at home, I'm going with my gut feeling and Missouri in a mild upset.
Bowling Green @ Mississippi State- In their only other meeting in 2013, the Bulldogs eked out a 21-20 win over the Falcons. This game won't be that close. MSU wins.
TCU @ SMU- These old Southwest Conference foes have been playing almost continuously since 1915, with the Horned Frogs holding the 51-42-7 edge, but the Mustangs have won the last 2. However, TCU has won 17 of the last 21, and they are coming out of an off week. But the Ponies will have the added motivation of facing their ex-HC in Sonny Dykes. Expect a close, hard fought game, but TCU wins.
Duke @ Kansas- Raise your hand if you predicted these 2 teams would each be 3-0 when they met. Put your hand down, you liar! The Jayhawks have scored at least 48 points in each game, but have allowed an average of 36 against their 2 FBS foes. The Blue Devils have only allowed 23 points in 2 games against FBS opponents (all to Northwestern) but have only averaged 31.5 in those 2 games. Duke leads the series 2-1, winning the last 2, including last year 52-33 (all games since 2009), but the home team is 3-0. Kansas wins.
USF @ Louisville- The Cardinals only lead the series 6-5, but have won the last 3, and are 4-1 in Louisville. They played every year as co-members of the Big East, but haven't played since 2013. Both teams are 1-2, but while the Bulls are coming off a near upset of Florida, UL has actually beaten an FBS team. Louisville wins.
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles lead the series 6-3, but after losing the 1st 5, the Bulls have won 3 of the last 4, including the last 2. However, EMU is 4-1 in Ypsilanti. As long as the Eagles don't have a hangover from last week's victory over Arizona State, they should win this. EMU wins.
UCLA @ Colorado- The Bruins lead the series 12-5, but the 2 teams have split the last 6, and are 4-4 in Boulder, with the Buffaloes winning the last 3 played there. Expect that to change this year, as the Buffs are one of the worst P5 teams. UCLA wins.
UMass @ Temple- This game matches 2 teams that are a combined 0-4 against FBS teams. The Owls lead the series 2-0, but both games were close. My Power Rankings have the Minutemen as the worst team in FBS, and they're on the road. Temple wins at home.
Fordham @ Ohio- The Bobcats may struggle against the Rams in this 1st time meeting, but should be able to pull out the win, as there are no Blocks of Granite around.
Minnesota @ Michigan State- The Spartans lead the series 30-17, and have won the last 5, as they have mostly dominated since 1977. However, they have never played more than 12 consecutive years, as most stretches have been 4-6 years. This game should give us an excellent read on the fortunes of both, as the Golden Gophers have won their 2 FBS games by an average of 43.5-3.5, while MSU went on the road and lost at Washington last week. The Spartans have won their last 8 home games, while Minnesota has won 4 of their last 5 road games. This should be a fantastic game! Minnesota wins.
Middle Tennessee @ Miami, Fl- Surprise, surprise! The Blue Raiders lead this series 2-0! What's not surprising is that the games were played in 1931 and 1932. Miami gets their 1st win in the series.
Florida @ Tennessee- The Gators lead this series 31-20, mostly on the strength of winning the last 5, and 16 of the last 17. The Volunteers won the 1st 10 in the series, played from 1916 to 1953, and then 3 of 5 from 1954-71. UF then had a string of dominance, winning 10 of 12 from 1976-97, before the Vols won 4 of 7 from 1998-2004. UT has looked pretty decent in their 3 wins; UF looked fantastic in their win over Utah, then just mediocre in their loss to Kentucky and near loss to USF. The question is, which UF team shows up on Saturday? Tennessee wins a close one.
Texas @ Texas Tech- I'm still not sold on either of these teams being in the mix in the Big 12. The Longhorns have dominated this series, leading 54-17, and winning the last 4, and I can only assume the series will be coming to an end soon. The Red Raiders have never won more than 2 in a row, and now it looks like that will never happen. Both teams have won 3 of their last 4 games, and are 2-1 on the season. TTU hasn't defeated the Longhorns in Lubbock since 2008. Texas wins.
Indiana @ Cincinnati- The Hoosiers lead the series 9-4-2, and are 2-1-2 in Cincinnati, with both ties coming in 1898. In fact, only 2 of the meetings happened this century: in 2000, and last year, when the Bearcats won 38-24. This game could give us an indication of if IU is legitimate. We already know Cincinnati is. Bearcats win.
Notre Dame @ North Carolina- If you had told me at the beginning of the year that one of these teams would be undefeated coming into this game, I would have picked the Fighting Irish. The Tar Heels have defeated an FCS team and won 2 close games against 2 Sun Belt teams. The Irish have lost to Ohio State, Marshall (of the Sun Belt) and narrowly defeated Cal. The Irish lead the series 20-1, as UNC vacated a win in 2008. They 1st played in 1949 in NYC, with UNC's lone win coming in 1960 in Chapel Hill (1-7 there). This is another coin flip game, but once again, I'm going with the road team. ND wins.
James Madison @ Appalachian State- The Dukes will be sky high for their 1st ever SBC game, and are coming out of an off week. The Mountaineers lead the series 12-4, and though they barely escaped Troy last week, they'll be ready for JMU. ASU wins.
Toledo @ San Diego State- This is a first time meeting between these 2 teams, and an interesting one it is. The Aztecs were expected to challenge for the MWC West crown this year, but have opened 1-2, with a win over an FCS team and double digit losses to Arizona and Utah. The Rockets are expected to challenge for the MAC West crown, and are 2-1 with wins over an FCS team and UMass (basically another FCS team) and a big loss to Ohio State. It's really hard to tell much from what little info we have, but Toledo has won 5 of their last 7, and 6 of their last 8 games overall, while SDSU is only 2 for their last 5, but 6 of 9. I may be crazy, but I'm going for yet another road underdog. Toledo wins.
FIU @ WKU- This is the CUSA opener for both teams, and each will be looking to get a leg up in the conference race. The Panthers had their off week last weekend and should be well rested while the Hilltoppers were losing in OT to Indiana. WKU leads the series 9-6, winning the last 3, and is 4-2 in Bowling Green. WKU wins.
North Texas @ Memphis- The Tigers lead the series 16-4, but the Mean Green have won 3 of the last 5. However, they last played in 2003, and the 19 games before then were played from 1952-1980. Memphis wins.
Texas Southern @ UTSA- The Roadrunners should outrun the Tigers in this 1st ever meeting.
Tulsa @ Ole Miss- The Golden Hurricane actually lead this series 3-0, having won in 1932, 1944, and in the 1964 Bluebonnet Bowl. In fact, they defeated the Rebels by a combined score of 87-7 in those 3 games! I'm not saying Ole Miss will make up the point difference in this one game, but they might get halfway there. Rebels win.
Oregon @ Washington State- The Ducks lead this series 52-42-7, as they've won the last 3, but the Cougars won the 4 before then. They first played way back in 1901, and have played every year since 1945 except for 1990. In fact, they played twice in 1945 and in '59 (no idea why). They played 21 times between 1901 and 1942, which includes 4 of the 7 ties. Anyway, the Cougars are looking for their 1st 4-0 start since 2017 when they started 6-0 (last win was at Oregon) and finished 9-4. The Ducks have looked impressive since losing their opener to Georgia, with a rout of BYU last week, while Wazzu's big win was on the road over Wisconsin. WSU has won 2 of the last 3 played in Pullman, but Oregon wins this one.
Georgia Tech @ UCF- The Yellow Jackets won the 3 games played in '96, '99, and 2000, but the Knights won the most recent game played in 2020 by the score of 49-21. This will be the 1st time the game will be played in Orlando. UCF has already lost to 1 ACC team (Louisville) by 6, so they'll be looking to even their record against the conference. The Jackets have been outscored 83-10 by their 2 FBS foes, but both were ranked P5 opponents. I have no faith in GT getting things turned around. UCF wins.
Sacramento State @ Colorado State- The Rams will get their 1st win of the 2022 season against the Hornets in this 1st ever meeting. They better, because they may not get a better chance.
Arizona @ California- The Wildcats lead the series 19-14-2, and have won the last 6 in this series that began when Arizona joined the PAC 8 (along with Arizona State, making it the PAC 10) in 1978. Both teams are 2-1, and both look like they could have potential to win anywhere between 4 and 8 games, so it is a game like this that could propel either team toward the 4 or the 8. This is one where I am going with the home team. Golden Bears win.
Akron @ Liberty- The Zips won the only meeting, back in 2002, so the Flames will even the series. LU wins.
Navy @ East Carolina- The Midshipmen lead the series 7-2, are 4-0 in Greenville, and are coming out of an off week, but the Pirates won 38-35 last year, which is the exact same score they won by in 2011. I doubt ECU will have to wait until 2031 to get their next win in the series. Pirates win.
Ball State @ Georgia Southern- This should be a fairly even matchup, as they have never played before. The Eagles are expected to finish last in the SBC East, but went on the road and upset Nebraska 2 weeks ago. The Cardinals only have a win against an FCS team this year, and have lost 5 of their last 7 games, and 6 of 8. GSU wins.
Arkansas State @ ODU- The Monarchs get to play their 1st conference game in their new conference at home, and it's the 1st time they have ever met the Red Wolves. ASU is 4-17 over their last 21 games, with 2 of those wins over FCS teams and the other 2 over ULM. ODU has lost 3 of their last 4, but those last 4 were against 2 ACC teams and 2 AAC teams. ODU wins.
Rice @ Houston- This is another pair of old Southwest Conference foes that played every year from 1971-1995, with the Cougars winning 19 of 25. They again played every year from 1999-2013, UH winning 10 of 15, and have played in 2017, '18, and last year, with UH winning all 3. Overall, the Cougars lead the series 32-11, and have won the last 6. But the Owls are 2-1 this year, with a win over Louisiana by double digits, and their only loss to USC. Meanwhile, the Cougars are 1-2, with a double digit loss to Kansas, a loss in OT to Texas Tech, and a win in OT over UTSA. I'm not quite ready to buy in on the Owls just yet, but if they beat Houston? I'll be all in, at least for a little while. UH wins.
Northern Illinois @ Kentucky- The Wildcats should be able to handle the Huskies in this 1st ever matchup between these 2 schools.
Arkansas @ Texas A&M- The Razorbacks lead the series between these old Southwest Conference foes 42-33-3, and won last year, but that broke a 9-game winning streak in the series by the Aggies. The series began in 1903, and each team has had periods of dominance. UA is on a 5 game winning streak, and has won 8 of 9 (only loss to Alabama); TAMU has won 3 of 5, and 7 of 10. Against FBS foes this year, the Aggies are averaging 15.5-13 ppg; the Razorbacks are at 37.5-27. Arkansas wins.
Iowa @ Rutgers- This is the game where we find out if the Scarlet Knights are for real. Or not. Rutgers is 3-0, but that includes a 1 point win over a mediocre Boston College, a rout of an FCS team, and a 2 point win over a terrible Temple team. The Hawkeyes are 2-1, with a narrow win over an FCS team, a loss to rival Iowa State, and a rout of a pitiful Nevada team. Flip a coin. Iowa wins.
Southern Miss @ Tulane- The Golden Eagles lead the series, which began in 1979, 23-9, but the Green Wave have won the last 2, in the 2020 Armed Forces Bowl (1/4/20) and in the 2020 season. Before then, USM won 6 straight (2003-2010) and 9 of 10. Tulane is only 4-11 in New Orleans in the series, but they are coming off a huge win at Kansas State, and are 3-0 for the 1st time since 1998, when they went 12-0. Southern Miss only has a win against an FCS team this year. As long as the Green Wave don't have a hangover from last week's big win, they should win easily. Tulane wins.
UNLV @ Utah State- The Aggies lead the series 19-6, and have won the last 6. They 1st met in 1971, and the Rebels are only 2-9 in Logan, as they forfeited a victory in 1984. However, UNLV has looked much improved this year, with their only loss by 6 to Cal, while USU has lost to an FCS team. Even though the Aggies are coming off of an off week, I'm picking UNLV in an upset.
Houston Baptist @ Texas State- The Bobcats will move to 2-0 in the series with a win over the Huskies.
Marshall @ Troy- The Thundering Herd lead the series 3-2, but the Trojans have won the last 2. However, all the games were played between 1993-2004. Marshall had a huge letdown last week, falling to Bowling Green after their upset of Notre Dame. Troy played Ole Miss tough in their opener, then lost to App State on a last play Hail Mary last week. Marshall wins their 1st ever SBC conference game.
La Tech @ South Alabama- The Bulldogs have won the 2 previous matchups, in 2017 and 2018, but the Jaguars are a much better team than they were then, as long as they play to their potential. LT has only won 4 of their last 15 games, and 2 of those were over FCS teams. USA wins.
Vanderbilt @ Alabama- The Crimson Tide leads the series 59-19-4, and that's with 2 vacated wins (2006 and 2007) and a forfeit (1993). The Commodores haven't won on the field since 1984, and that was in Tuscaloosa. Of Vandy's 19 wins, 8 were between 1903 and 1929, as they won 8 of the 1st 10 meetings. Except for a 2 year hiatus for WWII, they played every year from 1927-2002. Other wins for the 'Dores were in 1935 and 1941, and between 1947 and 1959, Vandy went 6-2-4 against the Tide, including 3 straight ties in '57, '58, and '59. Vandy's next win wasn't until 1969, and then the one in 1984. So it's been a long time. Don't expect a win this year, either. Bama wins big.
Wisconsin @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes have dominated this series, leading 61-18-5, winning the last 8, with 3 of the last 5 meetings in the Big Ten Championship Game. They 1st met in 1913, and played every year through 1920. They picked back up in 1930, played through 1933, then in 1941-42, 1945-46, and then every year again from 1948-1996. They played from 1999-2004, and from 2007-2013, and then in 2016 and '19, as well as the '14, '17, and '19 CGs. The only time the Badgers won as many as 3 straight were the 1st three played. UW already has a loss to Washington St, and while OSU doesn't have a big win (we all thought Notre dame was, but now we're not so sure), neither does Wisconsin. OSU wins.
UConn @ NC State- The Wolfpack lead the series over the Huskies 2-0, and while the 1st 2 games were close (in 2003 and 2012), this one won't be. NC State wins easily.
Miami, Oh @ Northwestern- The Redhawks lead the series 6-3, but the Wildcats have won the last 2. All but one game has been played in Evanston, which means NW is 2-6 at home in this series. Miami won the 1st meeting in 1955, NW won in 1963, and then Miami won the next 5 in 1964, 1982, 1995, 1999, and 2003. NW won the most recent 2, in 2006 and 2009. Both teams are 1-2, with the Wildcats beating Nebraska, but losing to Duke and SIU. The Redhawks beat an FCS team, but lost to Kentucky and Cincinnati by similar scores. Call me crazy again, but once again I'm picking an underdog on the road, Miami wins.
New Mexico @ LSU- The Tigers should maul the Lobos in this 1st ever matchup. Bayou Bengals win big.
Charlotte @ South Carolina- The Gamecocks will have no problems with the 49ers in this 1st ever meeting. SC wins easily.
FAU @ Purdue- The Owls may give them problems for a half or so, but the Boilermakers will win this 1st ever meeting.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma- The Sooners have dominated this series, leading 77-21-4, but the Wildcats have won 2 of the last 3, though OU won 37-31 last year. Most of OU's wins came from 1935-1992, when they were 55-2-1. Other than that 58-year stretch, the Sooners lead 22-19-3. Since 1993, the Sooners only lead 14-10, with each having a win in the Big 12 Championship Game. KSU was virtually everyone's (including my) dark horse pick in the Big 12, but they were upset by Tulane last week. Will that only serve to wake them up and make them more determined? I don't know, but I do know that Oklahoma has looked really good the 1st 3 weeks, albeit against suspect competition. Since 1993, KSU is 5-5 in Norman, OK. I'm going to go out on a limb and pick KSU to bounce back in a big way as the Sooners overlook them. KSU in my UPSET SPECIAL!
Hawaii @ New Mexico State- These are 2 bad teams. Let me say that again- these are 2 very bad teams. They are a combined 1-7, with the only win over an FCS team by 10 points. In their FBS games, they have been outscored 335-59 in 7 games, an average of 47.9-8.4/game! The Aggies have never beaten the Rainbow Warriors in 10 tries, but Hawaii has lost 8 of their last 10 on the mainland. NMSU wins.
Boston College @ FSU- The Seminoles lead the series 13-5, and have won the last 3, and 10 of the last 11. I'm not convinced FSU is a quality team, yet, but they're definitely better than the Eagles. FSU wins.
Louisiana @ ULM- The Ragin' Cajuns lead the series 31-25, and have won the last 4, and 12 of the last 14. Though they lost to Rice last week, UL is better than the Warhawks, who have lost 7 straight FBS games, and 4 straight SBC games. UL wins.
USC @ Oregon State- The Trojans have really dominated the Beavers, leading the series 63-12-4, but OSU won 45-27 last year, and USC only leads 6-4 over the last 10 meetings. The Men of Troy have impressed so far this year, routing what appears to be a decent Rice team, and also beating Stanford and Fresno State by double digits each. The Beavers have routed an FCS team, beat Boise State by 17, and beat that same Fresno State team by 3 the week before USC played them. OSU is 4-3 the last 7 times these teams have played in Corvallis, and I think they bring USC back to Earth. OSU in an upset.
Wyoming @ BYU- The Cougars lead the series 45-30-3, and have won the last 8, and 17 of the last 19. Their last meeting was in the 2016 Poinsettia Bowl, and one other meeting was in the 1996 WAC Championship Game. The last regular season meeting was in 2010, and Wyoming's last win in Provo was in 1987. The Cowboys lost their opener to Illinois by 32 points, but since then have won 3 straight, over Tulsa, an FCS team, and over Air Force. BYU started 2-0, then was routed by Oregon on the road. This is Wyoming's 1st road game since their opener, and they've lost 4 of their last 5 road contests. BYU wins, but it will be closer than expected.
Utah @ Arizona State- The Sun Devils lead the series 22-10, but the Utes have won the last 2, and 4 of the last 6. This will be the 1st game for ASU under interim HC Shaun Aguano, so it's difficult to know how the team will respond to the change. I don't think it will matter, as Utah is the much better team. Utes win.
Stanford @ Washington- This is as even as a series can be, as it is tied 44-44-4 (4s everywhere!), and though UW won last year, Stanford has won 12 of the last 17. The Huskies have had a fantastic start to their season, but need to avoid the hangover effect after their big win last week over Michigan State. The Cardinal are only 1-1, but had an off week last week, so they should be well rested and well prepared. Won't matter. Washington wins big.
Western Michigan @ San Jose State- The Broncos won last year in Kalamazoo in their only previous meeting, so this is the return trip. The Spartans played Auburn close on the road, and were off last week. WMU has lost to 2 P5 teams and defeated Ball State on the road. This is their 3rd road game in their 1st 4 games. Expect a close game, but SJSU wins at home.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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