Paul's Picks Bowls Part II
Welcome Back!
I'm off to a pretty decent start to my bowl predictions, as I'm 10-2 so far, missing on the Louisville-Cincinnati game and the WKU- South Alabama game. This does not include today's Baylor-Air Force game, obviously (I picked Air Force in last week's blog). I don't expect to keep up this 83.3% pace for the whole bowl season, though.
As I'm sure you know, bowls are notoriously difficult to pick, especially lately. This is because of all of the coaching changes, with interims coaching bowls in some cases, all of the opt-outs as athletes prepare for the NFL Draft, and all of the players entering the transfer portal who will not be available. And then of course there are the "normal" things like injuries, motivation (or lack thereof) for each team, and the long layoffs for many teams and how that affects them. And now this year, Redshirts can play even if they've reached their maximum of 4 games played! All I'm saying is that this is mostly just guesses, even more so than during the regular season. But it's still fun to do anyway!
One of the fun aspects of bowls is that it pairs teams that have rarely, if ever, played before, and this season seems to have a lot of those matchups.
On to the picks!
Friday December 23
Louisiana vs Houston (Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA)- The Cougars lead the series 6-3, but the Ragin' Cajuns won the last meeting, in 2006, and actually won the 1st 2- in 1946 and 1948. Though the Independence Bowl has been played since 1976, this is the 1st appearance by either team. UH is 12-16-1 in bowls, losing 2 of their last 3, but beating Auburn last year. UL is 7-2 in bowls, winning 3 in a row, and this is their 5th straight bowl. The Cajuns come into this game 6-6, but winning 2 of their last 3. The Cougars are 7-5, and also won 2 of their last 3. Houston wins, as this is an unusual down year for Louisiana.
Wake Forest vs Missouri (Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa, FL)- These 2 teams have never met before, though Mizzou has been playing football since 1901, and WF since 1908. This is the 1st appearance for either team in this bowl game. The Demon Deacons are 10-6 in bowls, though they've lost 2 of their last 3, winning last year over Rutgers in the Gator Bowl. The Tigers are 15-19 in bowls, and have lost 3 straight, their last win coming in the 2014 Citrus Bowl over Minnesota. WF started the season hot, winning 6 of their 1st 7, but then lost 4 of their last 5 to finish 7-5. Mizzou finished 6-6, winning their last 2, but 3 of their losses were by 7 points or less. Missouri wins.
Saturday, December 24
Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State (Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, HI)- This is yet another 1st time meeting. However, each has played in this bowl once before. SDSU defeated Cincinnati 42-7 in 2015 and MTSU lost to Hawaii 52-35 in 2016. The Blue Raiders are 3-6 in bowls, but have won 2 of their last 3. The Aztecs are 7-9 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 6, including their last 2. MTSU won their last 3 games to finish 7-5; SDSU won 3 of their last 4 to also finish 7-5, their lone loss being to 9-3 Air Force, and 4 of their 5 losses were to bowl teams (the other was to Arizona in their opener). SDSU wins.
Monday, December 26
New Mexico State vs Bowling Green (Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit, MI)- Two more teams that have never met get to do so in this bowl game, and this is also the 1st appearance in the QL Bowl for each team. The Aggies are 3-0-1 in bowls, but their bowl appearances have been few and far, far between: 1935 (the tie), 1959, 1960, and 2017, and their last 2 wins were over Utah St (2017 needed OT). The Falcons are 5-8 in bowls, losing 5 of their last 6; this is their 1st bowl since 2015. Both teams are 6-6, but NMSU needed a waiver due to a cancellation of one of their FBS games, which they replaced with an FCS team. The Aggies started the season 1-5, then won 5 of their last 6, losing only at Missouri, but their only win over a team with a winning record was over Liberty, 49-14 in their penultimate game. The Falcons also started poorly, losing their 1st 2, including to an FCS team, and 4 of their 1st 6, but then won 4 of their last 6, but those 2 losses came in their last 3 games. Their big wins were over Marshall in game 3, and over MAC champion Toledo on the road in game 11. This should be a competitive game between 2 evenly matched teams. I'm a huge believer in NMSU HC Jerry Kill, so I'm going with the Aggies to continue their perfect bowl record.
Tuesday, December 27
Georgia Southern vs Buffalo (Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, AL)- This is another 1st-time meeting. However, both teams are 1-0 in the Camellia Bowl, with the Eagles beating Eastern Michigan 23-21 in 2018 and the Bulls beating Marshall 17-10 in 2020. The Sun Belt is 5-2 in this game, while the MAC is only 2-4, and against each other, the SBC leads 4-1. GS is 3-1 in bowls; UB is 2-3, winning their last 2. The Eagles lost 3 of their last 4, but defeated App State in their last game to finish 6-6. Three of their losses were by 7 points or less, and 5 of their 6 losses were by 14 or less- their biggest loss was to Louisiana by 19. The Bulls also ended up at 6-6, also losing 3 of their last 4, and also won their last game, by 1 over woeful Akron. Four of their losses were by 8 points or less, but their other 2, to Maryland and Ohio, were by 21 points each. Georgia Southern wins this.
Memphis vs Utah State (First Responder Bowl in Dallas, TX)- I was surprised to learn that these teams have actually played each other 7 times, with the Tigers holding a 4-3 edge in victories. However, all the games occurred between 1965 and 1977, with Memphis winning the last 2. This is the 1st appearance in this bowl for both teams. The Tigers are 5-8 in bowls, with their win in 2020 breaking a 5-bowl losing streak (their bowl last year was canceled). The Aggies are 6-8 in bowls, winning 2 of their last 3. This is yet another meeting of 6-6 teams. Memphis enters winning 2 of their last 3, but losing their last game by 3 to SMU; USU enters winning 3 of their last 4, but losing their last game to Boise State. Memphis wins.
Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina (Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, AL)- This is a 1st time meeting between 2 Carolinas that aren't states. ECU has made 2 appearances in this bowl, losing both, in the 2006 debut of this bowl (when it was known as the PapaJohns.com Bowl) to USF, and in 2015 (when it 1st became known as the Birmingham Bowl) to Florida. The Pirates are 6-9 in bowls, losing 5 of their last 6. The Chanticleers are 1-1 in bowls, losing their 1st in 2020, and winning last year. ECU comes in at 7-5, losing 2 of their last 3, but winning their last game over Temple, and they've been pretty inconsistent all year, playing really well at times (beating UCF, Memphis, and BYU and close losses to NC State and Cincinnati), and poorly at others (loss to Navy, blowout loss to Houston, narrow win over Temple). CCU is 9-3, a drop from their 11-win seasons of the last 2 years, and they lost their last 2 games- against JMU and to Troy in the SBC Championship Game. They had several close wins, winning 5 by 7 points or less, and had an inexplicable 28-point loss to an ODU team that went on to lose its next 6 games to finish 3-9. I have no idea who will win this, but my guess is ECU, especially if CCU QB Grayson McCall is unavailable to play.
Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State (Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix, AZ)- UW and OSU have never met on a football field before, but both are undefeated in this bowl game. The Cowboys won in 2007 (Insight Bowl) and 2015 (Cactus Bowl); The Badgers won in 1996 (Copper Bowl). Wisconsin is 18-15 in bowls, winning 7 of their last 8, but HC Paul Chryst is no longer there. OSU is 21-11 in bowls, winning 5 of their last 6, and 11 of their last 16, as this is their 17th consecutive bowl. The Badgers are 6-6, losing 2 of their last 3, and 3 of their 6 losses are by at least 14 pts. The Cowboys are 7-5, losing 4 of their last 5, 3 of those 4 by at least 15 points. Needless to say, neither team is entering with much momentum. Flip a coin. OSU wins.
Wednesday, December 28
UCF vs Duke (Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD)- UCF and Duke will be meeting for the 1st time, and this is the 1st appearance for each school in this bowl. The Knights are 6-7 in bowls, winning 2 of their last 3, and this is their 7th straight appearance in a bowl. The Blue Devils are 6-6 in bowls, winning their last 3, but this is their 1st bowl since 2018. UCF is 9-4, winning 4 of their last 6, but losing 2 of 3, including the AAC Championship Game and an inexplicable 3-point loss to Navy. Duke is 8-4, and won 4 of their last 5, their lone loss in that stretch by 2 to Pitt. Duke wins.
Kansas vs Arkansas (Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN)- The Jayhawks lead the series 2-0, winning in 1905 (6-0) and 1906 (37-5). The Liberty Bowl has been played since 1959, and after this game, Arkansas will have played in more games than any other team. They are currently 2-3, winning in 2010 and 2016, and losing in 1971, 1984, and 1987, all of those losses to SEC teams. Kansas will be making their 2nd appearance. losing in 1973 to NC State. The Jayhawks are 6-6 in bowls, winning 5 of their last 6, including their last 3, but this is their 1st bowl since 2008, breaking the longest P5 bowl drought. The Razorbacks are 16-24-3 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 5. Both teams are 6-6 and are stumbling into bowl season. KU has lost 6 of their last 7, including their last 3, the Hogs lost 3 of their last 4, but did beat Ole Miss in that stretch. Arkansas wins.
North Carolina vs Oregon (Holiday Bowl in San Diego, CA)- These teams have never met before, and UNC has never played in the Holiday Bowl, but Oregon is 2-1, winning in 2000 and 2008, and losing in 2005. The Tar Heels are 15-21 in bowls, losing 5 of their last 6. The Ducks are 15-20 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4, as they play in their 6th consecutive bowl. The Heels are 9-4, losing their last 3, to GT, rival NC State, and to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, but before then, they had won 6 straight. OU is 9-3, but lost 2 of their last 3, to Washington and to rival Oregon State, but did beat Pac 12 champion Utah in between. This should be a good game, with lots of scoring. Oregon wins.
Texas Tech vs Ole Miss (Texas Bowl in Houston, TX)- The Rebels lead the series 4-2, and 3 of their 4 wins were in bowl games: the 1986 and '98 Independence Bowls, and the 2009 Cotton Bowl. This is TTU's 3rd appearance in this bowl, as they won in 2012 and lost in 2015. This is Mississippi's 1st appearance. The Red Raiders are 15-23-1 in bowls, winning 10 of their last 14, but losing 2 of their last 3. The Rebels are 24-15 in bowls, winning 2 of their last 3. TTU is 7-5, winning their last 3; Ole Miss is 8-4, losing their last 3. TTU runs more plays per game than any other team in FBS, and Ole Miss is also among the leaders in that category. Despite how they ended their seasons, I'm going with the Rebels in a close one.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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