Odds and Ends 9-27-23

Welcome Back!

Yesterday, I presented my Power Rankings. New this year is points added based on how the teams are doing statistically. So far, these are the teams playing the best offensively and defensively combined based on my analysis. I'll let you decide if each team is really this good, or if this is the result of them playing poor competition.

1. Oregon

2. Syracuse

3. Miami, FL

4. Penn State

5. Notre Dame

6. Georgia

7. Oklahoma

8. UCLA

9. Ohio State

10. Clemson

Here are the teams playing the worst both offensively and defensively combined, based on my own formula. The one listed #1 is worst, #2 is next worst, and so on.

1. Nevada

2. Kent State

3. Arkansas State

4. Ball State

5. FIU

T6. Buffalo

T6. Central Michigan

8. Charlotte

9. Eastern Michigan

10. San Diego State

Inter-conference results 

For these purposes, all Independents (except Notre Dame) are considered G5. 

Here are the results of all out-of-conference games.

Overall

1) Pac 12 29-5 .853

2) SEC 33-8 .805

3) Big Ten 29-8 .784

4) ACC 28-10 .737

5) SBC 30-12 .714

6) Big 12 30-13 .698

7) CUSA 14-14 .500

8) Independents 9-11 .450

9) MWC 17-22 .436

10) AAC 21-29 .420

11) MAC 17-27 .386

12) FCS 4-102 .038

The Pac 12 remains in 1st place winning an astonishing 85% of their OOC games (but 1-2 against the SEC). For G5 conferences, the Sun Belt continues to lead, even moving past the Big 12 into 5th place, and the Mountain West moves back up. A big surprise is CUSA being the 2nd best G5 league so far.

vs FBS

1) Pac 12 21-4 .840

2) Big Ten 24-8 .750

3) SEC 21-8 .724

4) ACC 18-10 .643

5) Big 12 19-13 .594

6) SBC 16-12 .571

7) CUSA 7-14 .333

8) Independents 5-11 .313

9) MWC 8-21 .276

10) AAC 9-29 .236

11) MAC 7-25 .219

12) FCS 4-102 .038

Again, the Pac 12 leads, followed by the Big Ten. The Sun Belt leads the G5, as CUSA and the Independents switch places, as do the MWC and the MAC.

vs P5

1) Pac 12 7-3 .700

2) ACC 8-8 .500

T3) Big 12 6-7 .462

T3) Big Ten 6-7 .462

5) SEC 5-7 .417

6) SBC 3-8 .273

7) MWC 4-17 .190

8) Ind 1-5 .167

9) MAC 3-16 .158

10) AAC 1-19 .050

11) FCS 1-46 .021

12) CUSA 0-8 .000

The Pac 12 continues to lead as the only conference above .500, with the SEC doing the worst among the P5 conferences. Once again, the Sun Belt leads among the G5, with CUSA still winless in this category, though they've only had 8 chances, fewer than any other conference (except Independents).

vs G5

1) Big Ten 18-1 .947

2) SEC 16-1 .941

3) Pac 12 14-1 933

4) ACC 10-2 .833

5) SBC 13-4 .765

6) Big 12 13-6 .684

7) CUSA 7-6 .538

8) MWC 4-4 .500

9) AAC 8-10 .444

10) Ind 4-6 .400

11) MAC 4-9 .308

12) FCS 3-56 .051

The Big Ten is in 1st, but that's mainly because they have played more G5 teams than any of the other P5 conferences (except the Big 12). The Sun Belt leads in this category, also, even doing better than the Big 12. The MAC falls to the bottom, just ahead of FCS teams.

vs FCS

The MWC has lost one game to an FCS team; the MAC has lost 2. Surprisingly, the Pac 12 has a loss to an FCS team, one of their few OOC losses overall.

Intra-conference results

There have been only 6 intra-conference games so far this year. The Big Ten East leads the Big Ten West 3-0, the Sun Belt East leads the Sun Belt West 2-0, and the SEC East leads the SEC West 1-0.

Which Conference is Best?

This category takes each team's overall record in all games into consideration. Here is how they stack up after Week 4. As we move into conference play, just about every conference will be .500 each week, unless some teams play OOC games, and some will, because the Independents have to play somebody. 

1) Pac 12 36-12 .750

2) SEC 41-16 .719

T3) Big Ten 38-18 .679

T3) ACC 38-18 .679

5) Big 12 37-19 .661

6) SBC 33-18 .647

7) MWC 25-25 .500

8) CUSA 18-21 .461

9) MAC 20-29 .408

T10) Independents 7-11 .389

T10) AAC 21-33 .389

The Pac 12 is still in the lead, and the Sun Belt is still the best among the G5 leagues. The Mountain West was 8-4 this week, with the SEC and Big Ten at 9-5, and the Sun Belt at 8-5. The AAC and MAC were both 4-8, and CUSA was 2-7, but the Independents were 0-4!

Which Division is Best?

To further break things out, I break the conferences down into divisions. Unfortunately, there are fewer conferences using divisions this year, and even fewer will be using them next year.

1) Big Ten East 23-5 .821

2) SEC East 22-7 .759

3) Pac 12 36-12 .750

4) SBC East 20-7 .741

T5) SEC West 19-9 .679

T5) ACC 38-18 .679

7) Big 12 37-19 .661

8) SBC West 13-11 .542

9) Big 10 West 15-13 .536

10) MWC 25-25 .500

11) CUSA 18-21 .461

12) MAC West 10-14 .417

13) MAC East 10-15 .400

T14) Ind 7-11 .389

T14) AAC 21-33 .389

The Big Ten East continues to lead, as they were 5-2 last week. The Sun Belt East is the best division among the G5 conferences. The SEC East was 6-1 last week, with the Sun Belt East at 5-2. Both MAC divisions were 2-4 each.

Undefeated/Winless teams

These are the teams that are undefeated so far, listed alphabetically (all teams are 4-0 unless otherwise noted):

Air Force

Duke

Fresno State

FSU

Georgia

Georgia State

James Madison

Kansas

Kentucky

Liberty

Louisville

Marshall (3-0)

Maryland

Miami, FL

Michigan

Missouri

North Carolina

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oregon

Penn State

Syracuse

Texas

USC 

Utah

Washington

Washington State

The following teams are winless, also listed alphabetically (all teams are 0-3 unless shown otherwise):

Buffalo

Nevada

Sam Houston (0-3)

UConn

Virginia

There are 27 teams without a loss so far (down from 39 last week), and only 5 winless teams (down from 7 last week). This is how they break down by conference (1st number listed is number of undefeated teams, 2nd is number of winless teams):

1) ACC 6-1

2) Pac 12 5-0

3) Big Ten 4-0

T4) SEC 3-0

T4) Big 12 3-0

T4) Sun Belt 3-0

7) Mountain West 2-1

8) CUSA 1-1

9) AAC 0-0

T10) Independents 0-1

T10) MAC 0-1

In addition, there are 20 teams that have a win, but no wins against FBS competition, down from 31 last week, as some teams dropped off, but 1 other moved here from the winless list. Those teams are (again listed alphabetically):

Akron

Arizona State

Ball State

Baylor

Boston College

Bowling Green

Charlotte

East Carolina

FAU

Kent State

Middle Tennessee

Navy

Pittsburgh

San Jose State

Southern Miss

Texas Tech

UAB

UTEP

Utah State

Western Michigan

There are still some surprising names on this list! Here is how they break down by conference:

AAC- 5

MAC- 5

Mountain West- 2

ACC-2

Big 12-2

CUSA- 2

Sun Belt- 1

Pac 12- 1

SEC-0

Big Ten-0

Independents- 0

Bowl eligible/eliminated 

COMING SOON: Starting midseason, I will keep a running list of teams as they reach bowl eligibility (6+ wins) or are eliminated from bowl eligibility (7+ losses)

Updates on my playoff picks 

Michigan and Alabama won rather easily, but Ohio State had an epic battle with Notre Dame and prevailed. Clemson lost to FSU and is probably eliminated, but you never know. 

Of the other teams I mentioned as possibilities- Georgia, USC, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech, FSU, NC State, North Carolina, LSU, Penn State, and Wisconsin- the Longhorns, Trojans, Utes, Huskies, Seminoles, and Tar Heels have distinguished themselves so far, while the Badgers and KSU Wildcats look less than playoff material, and the Red Raiders are probably eliminated. The Bayou Bengals may be playing their way back into playoff consideration. The others are still possible, of course; they just haven't stood out to me either positively or negatively yet, but there is still a long way to go.

Games I'm Excited About

There are some super interesting games this week!

Louisville @ NC State- Can the Cardinals stay undefeated and go 5-0 for the 1st time since starting the 2013 season 6-0, and can they win their 1st 3 ACC games for the 1st time since joining the conference in 2014? Will the Wolfpack get their 2nd ACC win and spoil Louisville HC Jeff Brohm's magical start to the season?

Utah @ Oregon State- Will the Utes finally have the services of QB Cam Rising? How will the Beavers respond to their disappointing loss to Wazzu last weekend?

USC @ Colorado- Will the Trojans be able to name their score, or will they come in overconfident and take the Buffs lightly? How will the Buffaloes respond to their 1st loss, and can they hang tough, get some turnovers and stops on defense, and generate enough offense?

Penn State @ Northwestern- Will the Nittany Lions have any problems in Evanston? Can the Wildcats maintain their momentum and actually make a game of this?

Florida @ Kentucky- Can the Gators recapture the energy and fight they exhibited against Tennessee in The Swamp, and take that on the road? Will the Wildcats continue the progress on offense they've shown the last 2 weeks and carry that into this game?

Texas A&M vs Arkansas (Arlington)- Can the Razorbacks pull the upset and avoid falling into an 0-2 hole in the SEC? Will the Aggies continue their turnaround following their loss to Miami in week 2?

Clemson @ Syracuse- Will the Tigers have much fight in them now that their goals are (seemingly) gone? Can the Orange continue their stellar early season play and take the fight to Clemson?

South Alabama @ James Madison- Will the Dukes be able to stay undefeated and continue the SBC East's dominance over the SBC West? Can the Jaguars bounce back from their inexplicable loss to Central Michigan and get their 1st conference game off to a good start?

Georgia @ Auburn- How will the Bulldogs react in their 1st game on the road in a hostile environment? Will the Tigers be able to bounce back from last week's dreadful performance and pull the upset in the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry?

Kansas @ Texas- Will the Longhorns be looking ahead to the Red River Rivalry next week in Dallas? If so, can the Jayhawks take advantage of the Horns' lack of focus?

LSU @ Ole Miss- Were the Tigers' struggles last week against Arkansas a harbinger of things to come? Will the Rebels be worried about who makes the defensive calls and forget to try to score?

Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern- Can the Eagles continue their hot start and win their SBC opener for the 1st time since 2018? Will the Chanticleers be able to rebound from their loss to Ga State last week and avoid falling into an 0-2 hole in the conference?

Troy at Georgia State- Will the Panthers be able to generate their 1st ever 5-game winning streak, and start 2-0 in the conference for the 1st time since 2017? Can the Trojans build on their win last week over WKU and avoid starting 0-2 in the SBC for the 1st time since 2015?

Notre Dame @ Duke- How will the Fighting Irish react to last week's devastating last second loss to Ohio State? Can the Blue Devils take advantage, pull the upset, and remain undefeated?

South Carolina @ Tennessee- Will the Volunteers be able to get revenge for the shellacking they received from SC last year? Can the Gamecocks make it 2 in a row over the Vols?

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks, as I pick the winner for all 59 games this weekend! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!