Paul's Picks- Bowls Part I
Welcome Back!
Over Championship Game Weekend, I was an awful 3-7, or 30% correct, but at least getting Army right pulled me up to 4-7, or 36.4%. Overall, I am 653-215, or 75.2%, a decrease of 0.5% from last week. I typically finish around 73%, but my goal is always to finish at or above 75%, and I just barely made it this year!
Bowl Games are notoriously difficult to predict, and always have been, but it's been made so much more difficult with all the opt-outs, transfers, and coaching changes occurring much earlier than they used to. All of which is to say that if I can finish at or around 50% for the bowls, I will consider that a success. Above 60%/ That's a rousing success. 75% or better? That's a minor miracle!
Just so you know, there will be no TWIF Notes following each week of bowl games. There are few enough games that you can find recaps in your local paper or online.
Now... on with the picks!
Saturday, December 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Georgia Southern vs Ohio (Myrtle Beach, SC)- This will be the 1st time these teams will ever meet on the gridiron. The Eagles are 3-2 in bowls, but have lost 2 of their last 3, including to a MAC team (Buffalo) in the Camellia Bowl last year. The Bobcats are 6-8 in bowl games, but have won 4 straight reaching back to 2017. This is the 1st time either team has played in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. GS is 6-6, but ended the regular season on a 4-game losing streak. Ohio is 9-3, winning their last 3. My gut says the Eagles will win, but my head says, "Don't listen to that fool!" Bobcats win a close one to open the Bowl Season.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Jacksonville State vs Louisiana (New Orleans, LA)- The Gamecocks and Ragin' Cajuns have met once before, on Nov 11, 2000, with JSU prevailing 28-14. This will be JSU's 1st ever bowl game, but UL has appeared in 10 bowls, winning 6, including 3 of their last 4 (lost to Houston in the Independence Bowl last year). The Cajuns have played in this bowl 6 times previously, with a 5-1 record, but 2 of those wins were vacated (in 2011 and 2013) due to NCAA violations including ACT fraud. The Gamecocks are 8-4 in their 1st full season at the FBS level, but lost 2 of their last 3. Louisiana is 6-6, losing 3 of their last 4. UL needs a win to avoid their 2nd straight season of 6-7 after 3 straight years of double-digit wins. This should be another close game, but JSU wins.
Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl
Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State (Orlando, FL)- This is a 1st-time meeting between these teams, as the Redhawks are 8-6 all-time in bowls, losing 3 of their last 4 (back to 2017), and the Mountaineers are 6-1 in bowls, suffering their 1st loss last year to WKU in the Boca Raton Bowl. This is the 1st time either of these teams have appeared in this bowl. Miami is 11-2 and champions of the MAC, winning their last 5 games. App State is 8-5, winning 5 in a row before losing to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game. The most intriguing matchup is between the Miami defense and the Mountaineer offense, as the opposite units (the ASU defense and the Miami offense) are mostly mediocre. I think the Redhawks win, sending the SBC tumbling to 0-3 in bowls.
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico State vs Fresno State (Albuquerque, NM)- The Bulldogs lead the series 18-1, but they've split the last 2 meetings, with the Aggies winning in 2011 and FSU winning in 2019, both times in Las Cruces. They played 3 times in the 70s, 6 times in the 80s, and twice in the 90s, before playing 7 straight years between 2005-2011. The Bulldogs are 16-15 in bowl games, winning their last 4 (since 2017), and they are 1-2 in this particular bowl game, losing in 2008 and 2009, and winning in 2021over UTEP. NMSU is 4-0-1 in bowls, but the tie was in 1935, and 2 wins were in 1959 and 1960, all in the Sun. However, they did win in the 2017 Arizona Bowl, and last year, in the Quick Lane Bowl over Bowling Green. This will be their 1st appearance in the NM Bowl. The Aggies are 10-4, and had a 8-game winning streak before losing to undefeated Liberty in the CUSA Championship Game. The Bulldogs are 8-4, losing their last 3 after starting the season 8-1. The key matchup in this game is the difference in styles on offense, FS passes the ball well (NMSU doesn't stop the pass well at all), and NMSU runs the ball well (FS doesn't stop the run). Aggies win.
Starco Brands LA Bowl
UCLA vs Boise State (Inglewood, CA)- The Bruins won the only previous meeting, 38-7 way back in 1999. Neither team has played in this bowl, but the MWC is 2-0 against the Pac 12 in the short 2-yr history of the LA Bowl. UCLA is 16-20-1 in bowls, losing their last 3 (since 2015), while the Broncos are 13-7 in bowl games, winning 2 of their last 3 (since 2017, 4 of their last 6 (since 2014), and 8 of their last 11 (since 2009). The Bruins are 7-5, losing 3 of their last 4. BSU is 8-5, winning 4 in a row, including a blowout win over UNLV in the MWC Championship Game. The Broncos are better on offense, the Bruins on defense. A key will be how the BS rushing offense (7th in ypg) fares against the UCLA run defense (2nd in ypg). I'll go with the team that was hotter at the end of the regular season. Boise State wins to move the Mountain West to 3-0 in this bowl over the Pac 12.
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
California vs Texas Tech (Shreveport, LA)- This is the 1st bowl game of the year to feature 2 Power 5 teams. The Red Raiders won the only previous meeting, 45-31 in the 2004 Holiday Bowl. The Golden Bears are 12-11-1 in bowl games, winning 2 of their last 3 (since 2015), but this is their 1st appearance in the Independence Bowl. TTU is 16-23-1 in bowls, winning their last 2 (since 2021), and 6 of their last 8 (since 2009), but they are 0-2 in this bowl, losing in 1986 and 1998. Both teams are 6-6, with the Bears winning their last 3, and the Raiders winning 3 of their last 4. This is a matchup of a decent offense (Cal) vs a fair defense (TT), and a decent offense (TT) vs a bad defense (Cal). Red Raiders win.
Monday, December 18
Famous Toastery Bowl
WKU vs ODU (Charlotte, NC)- The Hilltoppers lead the series 6-1, as they played every year from 2014-2021 (except for 2020), with the Monarchs winning in 2018. WKU is 6-3 in bowls, winning the last 2, and 3 of the last 4, all in the last 4 years. ODU is 1-1 in bowls, winning the 2016 Bahamas Bowl, and losing in the 2021 Myrtle Beach Bowl. This bowl is a replacement for the Bahamas Bowl, which will no longer be played. Both teams won their only appearance in the Bahamas Bowl, with WKU's win coming in the very 1st one, in 2014. The Toppers were 7-5, winning their last 2, and 3 of their last 4. The Monarchs were 6-6, winning their last 2, but losing 3 in a row before then. ODU lost at Liberty of CUSA, 38-10, while WKU lost at Troy of the Sun Belt 27-24, and lost to the Flames at home by 13, 42-29. ODU wins to give the SBC their 1st bowl victory of the year.
Tuesday, December 19
Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
UTSA vs Marshall (Frisco, TX)- The Thundering Herd lead the series 2-1, winning in 2013 and 2018 in Huntington, and losing in 2017 in San Antonio. UTSA is 0-4 in bowl games, all since 2016, and 3 of them by 7 points or less (the other was by 14). Marshall is 13-5 in bowls, losing 3 of their last 4 (since 2019), with their lone win coming last year in the Myrtle Beach Bowl over UConn. This is Marshall's 1st appearance in the Frisco Bowl, but the Roadrunners lost to San Diego State 38-24 in the '21 version. UTSA is 8-4, winning 7 of their last 8, losing to Tulane by 13 in their season finale, keeping them out of the AAC Championship Game. MU is 6-6, winning 2 of their last 3 to end a 5-game losing skid. UTSA wins, handing the SBC yet another loss. It seems Sun Belt teams are all playing teams at least a half-tick better than they are.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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