Paul's Picks- Bowls Part II
Welcome Back!
So far I am a mediocre 4-4 in my bowl picks. I started out great, getting the 1st 2 correct, but themn missed the next 3. Hopefully, I can do better this week.
This is Part 2 of 3. I'll have the pre-New Year's and New Year's games in my next installment, but this should be enough to get you through Christmas and a little beyond.
Bowl Games are notoriously difficult to predict, and always have been, but it's been made so much more difficult with all the opt-outs, transfers, and coaching changes occurring much earlier than they used to. All of which is to say that if I can finish at or around 50% for the bowls, I will consider that a success. Above 60%/ That's a rousing success. 75% or better? That's a minor miracle!
Just so you know, there will be no TWIF Notes following each week of bowl games. There are few enough games that you can find recaps in your local paper or online.
This is how each conference is doing in the bowls so far:
Thursday, December 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
USF vs Syracuse (Boca Raton, FL)- The Bulls lead the series 8-2, but all the games occurred between 2005-2016. USF is 6-4 in bowl games, winning 2 of their last 3 ((since 2016), and 5 of their last 7 (since 2008). This is their 1st bowl appearance since 2018. The Orange is 16-10-1 in bowls, winning 4 of their last 5 (since 2010), but they lost to Minnesota last year in the Pinstripe Bowl. Neither team has appeared in the Boca Raton Bowl before, though the AAC is 0-4 here. Both teams are 6-6, with the Bulls winning 2 of their last 3 and 3 of their last 5, and Syracuse also winning 2 of their last 3, after losing 5 in a row. Syracuse is my pick, due to their better defense, and having a somewhat competent offense.
Friday, December 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Georgia Tech vs UCF (Tampa, FL)- The Yellow Jackets lead the series 3-2, winning the games played between 1996-2000, but the Knights have won the 2 most recent games, in 2020 and 2022, both by double digits. GT is 25-20 in bowl games, winning 2 of their last 3 (since 2014), but this is their 1st bowl since 2018, and their 1st appearance in the Gasparilla Bowl. UCF is 6-8 in bowls, losing 2 of their last 3, and are appearing in their 8th straight bowl, and for the 6th time in the Gasparilla Bowl (previously known as the St. Petersburg Bowl and the Beef O'Brady's Bowl), going 3-2, winning their last 2 in 2019 and 2021. Both teams are 6-6, with the Jackets losing 2 of their last 3, but winning 3 of their last 5, and the Knights winning 3 of their last 4. I like UCF's offense against GT's defense. Knights win.
Saturday, December 23
76 Birmingham Bowl
Troy vs Duke (Birmingham, AL)- The Blue Devils lead the series 2-0, winning in 2013 and 2014. The Trojans are 6-3 in bowl games, winning their last 5 (since 2010), 3 by 10+ points each. Duke is 6-8 in bowls, winning their last 4 (since 2015), the last 3 by 17+ points each. Neither team has appeared in this bowl, but the ACC is 1-2 and the Sun Belt is 0-1 here. Troy is 11-2 and Sun Belt Conference champions for the 2nd year in a row, and is currently sporting a 10-game winning streak. The Blue Devils are 7-5, but lost 2 of their last 3, and 4 of their last 6, after starting the season 5-1. Troy has the defense to hold Duke's offense in check, and a good enough offense to score against the Blue Devil defense, which is also very good. Trojans win.
Camellia Bowl
Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois (Montgomery, AL)- The Huskies lead the series 7-1, wining 6 of the 7 games played between 1990 and 1996, and then in the 2012 GoDaddy.com Bowl. The Red Wolves are 4-6 in bowl games, losing 2 of their last 3 (since 2017), and they are 1-1 in the Camellia Bowl, winning in 2019, and losing in 2017, both times to CUSA teams. NIU is 4-10 in bowls, losing their last 7 (since 2012), including to CCU in their last bowl in 2021. The Huskies are making their 1st appearance in the Camellia Bowl. Both teams are 6-6, with ASU losing 2 of their last 3, but winning 3 of their last 5, and NIU winning their last 2. The Red Wolves have a terrible defense and a mediocre offense, while the Huskies are mediocre on both sides of the ball. This may come down to special teams and/or turnovers. NIU wins a close one.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
James Madison vs Air Force (Fort Worth, TX)- This will be the 1st time these teams will meet on the gridiron, as this is only JMU's 2nd season at the FBS level, and the Dukes are only in a bowl because of a dearth of 6-6 teams. That means that this is JMU's 1st ever bowl appearance, and this is the 1st time a Sun Belt team has played here. The Falcons, on the other hand, are 15-11-1 in bowls, winning their last 4 (since 2016), and they have appeared in this bowl (originally known as the Fort Worth Bowl) more than any other team, as they are 2-4 in the AF Bowl. AFA did defeat Baylor last year in this bowl. The Dukes are 11-1, with their only loss in OT to App State in their penultimate game breaking a 13-game winning streak. Air Force is 8-4, but on a 4-game losing streak after having their own 13-game winning streak snapped. JMU wins in a mild upset over the Falcons, but a lot will depend on their #1 ranked rushing defense stopping (or at least containing) the #2 rushing offense of the Air Force Academy.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Georgia State vs Utah State (Boise, ID)- This is another 1st time matchup, which is one of the things I love about bowl games! The Panthers are 3-2 in bowl games, winning their last 2 (since 2020), but this will be their 1st appearance in this bowl, formerly known as both the Humanitarian Bowl and the MPC Computers Bowl. The Aggies are 6-9 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4 (since 2018), but losing last year in the First Responder Bowl to Memphis. USU will be making a record 5th appearance in this bowl, as they are 1-3 in previous appearances, with their lone win in 2012 (last appearance was in 2015). Both teams are 6-6, but GSU has lost 5 consecutive games after starting the season 6-1, while USU won 3 of their last 4 to reach bowl eligibility. The Sun Belt is 1-0 in this game, while the MWC is 5-4 (WAC was 5-8 and the Big West was 3-1). Aggies win, because they have a better offense than the Panthers, and a comparable defense.
68 Ventures Bowl
South Alabama vs Eastern Michigan (Mobile, AL)- The Jaguars and Eagles have never played before. USA is 0-3 in bowl games (since 2014), and this is their 1st appearance in the 68 Ventures Bowl (formerly the Mobile Alabama Bowl, the GMAC Bowl, the GoDaddy.com Bowl, the Dollar General Bowl, and the LendingTree Bowl). EMU is 2-4 in bowls, winning their 1st in 1987, then losing 4 in a row between 2014 and 2021, before winning last year in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Eagles are 0-1 in this bowl, losing in 2021 to Liberty. The MAC is 9-11 in this bowl, while the Sun Belt is 9-4. Both teams are 6-6, with the Jaguars winning 2 of their last 3, and the Eagles winning their last 2. South Alabama should win this game fairly easily, as Eastern Michigan has one of the worst offenses in FBS going against a defense ranked in the top 40 in all the major statistical categories.
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs Northwestern (Las Vegas, NV)- These teams have actually played 3 times, with the Utes winning in 1981 in Evanston (42-0), and the Wildcats winning in 1927 (13-6, also in Evanston), and in the 2018 Holiday Bowl (31-20). Utah is 17-8 in bowl games, and have lost 4 straight (since that 2018 game against NW), but they are 4-1 in the Las Vegas Bowl (formerly the California Raisin Bowl), with their last appearance in 2015. NU is 6-10 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4 (since 2016), and they will be making their 1st appearance in the LV Bowl. Pac 12 teams are 10-10 in this bowl, while the Big Ten is 1-0. The Utes are 8-4, but lost 2 of their last 3 after starting the year 6-1. The Wildcats are 7-5, but won their last 3, and 4 of their last 5, losing only to Big Ten West champion Iowa by 3. NW has a terrible offense, and a decent defense; Utah has a mediocre offense and a terrific defense. Utah wins. Probably by a score of 7-3, or something similar.
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State (Honolulu, HI)- The Chanticleers are 1-2 in bowl games, winning the Cure Bowl in 2021 between 2 losses in 2020 and 2022, one of those in OT. The Spartans are 7-5 in bowls, losing 2 straight (since 2020) after winning 4 in a row (since 1990). Neither team has appeared in the Hawai'i Bowl before, and they have never faced each other. The Mountain West is 4-5 in this game (WAC was 4-6), and CCU will be representing the Sun Belt for the 1st time. Both teams are 7-5, with the Chants losing their last 2 after winning 5 in a row to become bowl eligible. SJSU is on a current 6-game winning streak, as they tied for 1st place in the MWC with Boise State and UNLV, but were denied a chance to play in the championship game as the tiebreaker was a composite of computer rankings (mine was not included). SJSU will find a way to win to extend their winning streak, especially with star QB Grayson McCall not available for the Chants.
Tuesday, December 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Bowling Green vs Minnesota (Detroit, MI)- This series is tied at 2 wins apiece, with the Golden Gophers winning in 1986 and 2008, and the Falcons winning in 2007 and 2021. All except for the 2008 game were played in Minneapolis, and the 2 BGSU wins were by a combined 5 points. The Falcons are 5-9 in bowl games, losing their last 2 (since 2015), and 6 of their last 7 (since 2007), and they are 0-1 in the Quick Lane Bowl, losing 24-19 to New Mexico State last year. The Gophers are 11-12 in bowls, winning 6 in a row (since 2015), and they are 2-0 in this bowl. These are the only teams who will have multiple appearances in this bowl, as the Big Ten is 3-1 here, and the MAC is 1-4. BGSU is 7-5, winning 5 of their last 6, with their only loss by 1 to MAC East champion Toledo. UM is 5-7, entering this game on a 4-game losing streak, and they are the only 5-7 team participating in a bowl. Neither team is very good on offense, but the Falcons have a respectable defense. Bowling Green wins.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Texas State vs Rice (Dallas, TX)- This series is also tied at 2 wins each, with the Bobcats winning games in 1923 and 1986, and the Owls winning in 1920 and 1987, with all games played in Houston. This is the 1st bowl game ever for TSU since they joined the FBS in 2012, as this is only their 2nd winning season at this level. Rice is 7-6 in bowls, losing 2 of their last 3 (since 2013), including to Southern Miss last year, but winning 3 of their last 5 (since 2008). Both teams will be making their 1st appearance in this bowl, but both the AAC and the Sun Belt are 1-0 here. The Bobcats are 7-5, losing 2 of their last 3 after a 4-1 start with a win at Baylor. The Owls are 6-6, winning their last 2 to break a 3-game slide. This should be a close and entertaining game, as Rice passes very well, and they'll be going up against a poor pass defense, but Texas State has a much better offense overall going against a middling Rice defense. Flip a coin- Rice wins.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Kansas vs UNLV (Phoenix, AZ)- This series is tied 1-1, with each team winning at home in 2002 and 2003. The Jayhawks are 6-7 in bowl games, winning 3 of their last 4 (since 2005), and they are 1-0 in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl (formerly the Copper Bowl, the Insight.com Bowl, the Insight Bowl, the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, the Cactus Bowl, and then the Cheez-It Bowl), winning in 2008. The Rebels are 3-1 in bowls, winning games in 1984, 1994, and 2000, and losing in 2013. They have never appeared in this bowl. The Big 12 is 14-5 here, and the MWC is 1-1 (though the WAC was 1-6). Kansas is 8-4, losing 2 of their last 3, but winning 3 of their last 5. UNLV is 9-4, losing their last game of the regular season, and then in the MWC Championship Game. The Rebels have more wins this year than in their previous 3 seasons combined, and a win here would match their total for the previous 4 seasons combined. The Jayhawks are in a bowl in back-to-back seasons for the 1st time since 2007 and 2008, which was also their last 2 winning seasons (12-1, then 8-5). Both teams have good offenses, but UNLV doesn't stop the run well, which is what KU does best. Kansas wins.
Wednesday, December 27
Military Bowl Presented by GoBowling.com
Virginia Tech vs Tulane (Annapolis, MD)- The Hokies lead this series 5-4, played from 1956-1989, with 7 of the 9 games played in New Orleans, and the teams mostly alternating wins with VT winning the only back-to-back contests in 1983 and 1984 (the 1st time played in Blacksburg). The Hokies are 13-21 in bowl games, losing 4 in a row (since 2017), and they are 1-1 in the Military Bowl (formerly the EagleBank Bowl). The Green Wave are 7-8 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4 (since 2018), and they will be making their 1st appearance in this bowl. The ACC is 6-4 here, while the AAC is 3-4. The Hokies are 6-6, winning 4 of their last 6 games. Tulane is 11-2, with their loss to SMU in the AAC Title game ending a 10-game winning streak. This is an interesting matchup, as TU's 8th ranked run defense goes up against VT's 46th ranked run offense, and their 71st ranked pass offense faces VT's 10th ranked pass defense. I think Tulane pulls the upset.
Duke's Mayo Bowl
North Carolina vs West Virginia (Charlotte, NC)- This series is tied 1-1, with the Tar Heels winning a Gator Bowl matchup 20-13 in 1997, and the Mountaineers winning 31-30 in the Meineke Car Care Bowl in 2008. UNC is 15-22 in bowl games, and have lost 3 straight (since 2020). In addition they are 1-4 in the Duke's Mayo Bowl (formerly the Continental Tire Bowl, the Meineke Car Care Bowl, and the Belk Bowl). WVU is 16-23 in bowls, losing 4 of their last 5 (since 2016), as they are 1-1 in this bowl (their win being over their current opponent). The ACC is 10-11 here, but this is the 1st appearance for a team from the Big 12. Both teams are 8-4, with the Heels losing their last 2, and the Mountaineers winning their last 2, and 4 of their last 5. Both teams have very good offenses, but WVU has a better defense. Plus, UNC QB Drake Maye will not be participating. West Virginia wins.
DIRECTV Holiday Bowl
Louisville vs USC (San Diego, CA)- This is yet another 1st time meeting. The Cardinals are 12-12-1 in bowl games, winning 2 of their last 3 (since 2019), and this is their 1st appearance in the Holiday Bowl, which has been played every year since 1978 (minus the 2020 and 2021 seasons due to COVID). The Trojans are 35-21 in bowls, but have lost 3 in a row (since 2017), and they are 1-2 in this bowl, winning in 2014, and losing in 2015 and 2019. The ACC is 0-1 (UNC lost to Oregon by 1 last year) and the Pac 12 is 8-18 here, with OU's win last year being their 1st since 2014. UL is 10-3, losing their last 2 games, including in the ACC Championship Game, after beginning the season 5-0 and 10-1. USC is 7-5, losing 5 of their last 6 after starting the season 6-0, with their only win in that span by 1 over Cal. The Cardinals have a top 50 offense and a top 35 defense; the Trojans have a bottom 15 defense and an explosive offense, but will be without Heisman Trophy winner (2022) and finalist (2023) QB Caleb Williams. Louisville wins.
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State (Houston, TX)- The Aggies lead the series 18-10, including a win in the 1981 Independence Bowl and in the last meeting in the Texas Bowl in 2019, but the Cowboys have won 4 of the last 5 (from 2008-2011). As co-members of the Big 12 from 1996-2011, TAMU won 10 out of 16 meetings. The teams also played 8 times between 1913 and 1954, with the Aggies winning 6, and then twice more after their bowl contest, in 1983 and 1988, both won by OSU. The Aggies are 20-22 in bowl games, winning each of their last 3 (since 2018), but this is their 1st bowl since 2020, and they are 2-1 in the Texas Bowl. The Cowboys are 21-12 in bowls, winning 5 of their last 7 bowls (since 2016), making their 18th straight appearance in a bowl, all under HC Mike Gundy (11-5 in bowl games). OSU is 0-1 in this bowl, losing in 2019 to this very same team. The Big 12 is 7-6 here, while the SEC is 3-5. Texas A&M is 7-5, winning 2 of their last 3 games, but will be playing under interim HC Elijah Robinson, who is set to depart for Syracuse following the game. Oklahoma State is 9-4, winning 7 of their last 9, with one of their losses to Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. OSU excels on offense but struggles on defense; TAMU excels on defense, but struggles on offense. I'll go with the better defense. Aggies win.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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