College Football Preview Part IX
Welcome Back!
I apologize not getting this out yesterday, but I've been dealing with a big move to a different state, a new job, and then some unexpected health problems. I will just continue the scheduled blogs, but will be a day or 2 behind until next Monday, when I hope to be back on schedule.
Today continues 5 weeks of my college football previews, with the 1st 3 weeks of individual team previews, and then concluding with 2 weeks of conference previews.
In case you are interested, I get all of my information from various sources. I use the 3 main preview magazines (Phil Steele, Lindy's, and Athlon), but I also use many different websites, including (but not limited to): Google, Winsipedia, sports-reference.com, ESPN.com, TeamRankings.com, NCAA.com, and, of course, individual school websites.
I don't have a staff- it's just me- so all of the research is my own from these various sources (it doesn't help when they contradict each other...), so any mistakes are mine. I also don't have an editor/proofreader, so you are likely to find several (many? I hope not) typos, such as commas where periods should be (or vice versa), a misspelled or missing word, doubled words ("the the" in the middle of a sentence, for example), etc.
I would like to invite you to fill out the fan survey in one of my previous blogs. It's titled, curiously enough, "College Football Fan Survey", so it shouldn't be difficult to find.
Finally, feel free to leave a comment. Interacting is much of the fun! Of course, if you know me personally, feel free to just text. I'll get that a lot quicker.
So, on with the previews! Today is #s 50-41.
50- Texas Tech Red Raiders 7-6/5-4
Coach: Joey McGuire (3rd year, 3rd overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 15-11/.577/58th
3-year record/rank: 22-17/.564/T61st
6-year record/rank: 35-38/.479/77th
10-year record/rank: 57-66/.463/85th
Last League Title: 1994 Southwest Conference co-champs/1955 Border Conference champions/2008 Big 12 South co-champs
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 3 years/2023/2023
Bowl Record/Rank: 17-23-1/.427/92nd
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: Never (since 1925- best seasons were 11-1 in 1953 under HC DeWitt Weaver and 1973 under HC Jim Carlen)
Last Winless Season: Never (worst seasons were 1-9 in 1962 and 1-9-1 in 1981)
All-time Record/Rank: 597-481-32/.552/58th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 26.33/72nd/9th Big 12
Rushing: 165.8/56th/8th
Passing: 221.1/73rd/11th
Total: 389.9/63rd/10th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 27/71st/7th
Rushing: 167.7/97th8th/
Passing: 226.5/68th/5th
Total: 394.2/88th/8th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 9/5
Schedule:
Aug 31 vs Abilene Christian
Sep 7 @ Washington State
Sep 14 vs North Texas
Sep 21 vs Arizona State
Sep 28 vs Cincinnati
Oct 5 @ Arizona
Oct 19 vs Baylor
Oct 26 @ TCU
Nov 2 @ Iowa State
Nov 9 vs Colorado
Nov 23 @ Oklahoma State
Nov 30 vs West Virginia
Chances for a winning season: The Red Raiders could be 5-0 when they travel to play Arizona Oct 5, and therefore would only need 2 more wins. There’s no more Texas or Oklahoma on the schedule, and they avoid Utah and Kansas State, but will play most of the other contenders. If they can get slight improvement on both offense and defense, this team could get to 8 or 9 regular season wins.
Chances to make a bowl game: Very strong, as they should get to 6 wins by November.
Chances to make the 12-team playoff: Not too likely, as their SOS is probably too low, but an undefeated (or 1-loss) conference champion should almost always get in, but I don’t see that for the Red Raiders.
Notes: The Red Raiders open the season with 4 of their 1st five games at home; TTU won 4 of their last 5 games, including the bowl win over Cal; the Red Raiders have won 4 of their last 5 home games, and 10 of their last 13 at home; TTU has been to 3 consecutive bowls (all wins), and to 23 bowls in the last 31 years, including 11 straight from 2000-2010; QB Behren Morton (1,754 yds, 62.1%, 15 TDs, 8 INTs) and RB Tahj Brooks (1,538 yds, 5.3 ypc, 10 TDs) both return; K Gino Garcia (14-21 FGs, 40-40 PATs) returns, but P will be new; the Raiders have 3 consecutive winning seasons, their longest since they had 16 in a row from 1995-2010, and they’ve had 2 straight winning conference records for the 1st time since 2008-2009.
49- South Carolina Gamecocks 5-7/3-5
Coach: Shane Beamer (4th year, 4th overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 20-18/.526/74th
3-year record/rank: 20-18/.526/T69th
6-year record/rank: 33-40/.452/89th
10-year record/rank: 58-66/.468/82nd
Last League Title: 1969 ACC champions
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year bowl-less/2022/2021
Bowl Record/Rank: 10-15/.400/98th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: Never (since 1892- best seasons were 11-2 in 3 straight seasons from 2011-13, all under HC Steve Spurrier
Last Winless Season: 1999/0-11 under HC Lou Holtz (1st year there)
All-time Record/Rank: 635-612-44/.509/85th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 26/77th/11th SEC
Rushing: 85.1/129th/14th
Passing: 278/25th/3rd
Total: 363.1/83rd/9th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 26.33/66th/9th
Rushing: 149.4/65th/8th
Passing: 246.3/107th/13th
Total: 395.7/91st/12th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 7/8
Schedule:
Aug 31 vs ODU
Sep 7 @ Kentucky
Sep 14 vs LSU
Sep 21 vs Akron
Oct 5 vs Ole Miss
Oct 12 @ Alabama
Oct 19 @ Oklahoma
Nov 2 vs Texas A&M
Nov 9 @ Vanderbilt
Nov 16 vs Missouri
Nov 23 vs Wofford
Nov 30 @ Clemson
Chances for a winning season: The Gamecocks have a pushover OOC schedule, with the exception of the annual rivalry game with Clemson. In the SEC, they play mostly former West division teams; the only former East teams they play are at Kentucky, at Vandy and Missouri, as they keep their annual contest with Texas A&M, and add LSU, Ole Miss, at Alabama, and at Oklahoma. There are no easy conference schedules in the SEC, but this one isn’t too bad. Assuming 3-1 in the OOC games, a 4-4 record gets them to 7 wins, but 4-4 is something they’ve only done once in the last 5 years. Their best bet might be getting to a bowl and winning it.
Chances to make a bowl game: This could be dicey, as I see 5 possible wins, so an upset may be needed.
Chances to make the 12-team playoff: I just don’t see it happening.
Notes: The Gamecocks won 3 of their last 4 games to build a little momentum for the 2024 season; 2 of 5 wins were by 7 points or less, but 6 of their 7 losses were by 10+ points (lost to Clemson by 9); SC has lost their last 4 true road games, and last 6 away from home; SC has been to 2 bowls in the last 3 years, and to 14 in the last 19 seasons, winning 7; QB is likely to be LaNorris Sellers (4-4 passing, 86 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 51 rushing yds) or Auburn transfer Robbie Ashford (145 yds, 51.9%, 2 TDs, 2 INTs); RB Rahiem “Rocket” Sanders (209 yds, 3.4 ypc, injured last year) transferred in from Arkansas; Gamecocks were held to 20 points or less in 6 games while allowing 30+ in 6; defense was last in the SEC in sacks and TFLs; P Kai Kroeger (43.2 avg, 41.3 net) returns, but K will be new; OL allowed 41 sacks last year.
48- Miami Redhawks 11-3/7-1
Coach: Chuck Martin (11th year, 11th overall FBS)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 56-62/.475/87th
3-year record/rank: 24-16/.600/T44th
6-year record/rank: 42-29/.592/42nd
10-year record/rank: 58-62/.483/79th
Last League Title: 2023 MAC champions
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 3 years/2023/2021
Bowl Record/Rank: 8-7/.533/43rd
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 1974/10-0-1 under HC Dick Crum (were 11-0 in 1973 under HC Bill Mallory
Last Winless Season: 2013/0-12
All-time Record/Rank: 724-484-44/.596/28th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 26.92/67th/2nd MAC
Rushing: 156.2/69th/5th
Passing: 174.8/114th/9th
Total: 330.9/102nd/6th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 16.15/7th/2nd
Rushing: 128.8/34th/3rd
Passing: 197.2/27th/7th
Total: 325.9/27th/4th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 6/6
Schedule:
Aug 31 @ Northwestern
Sep 14 vs Cincinnati
Sep 21 @ Notre Dame
Sep 28 vs UMass
Oct 5 @ Toledo
Oct 12 @ Eastern Michigan
Oct 19 vs Ohio
Oct 26 vs Central Michigan
Nov 5 @ Ball State
Nov 13 vs Kent State
Nov 19 vs Northern Illinois
Nov 29 @ Bowling Green
Chances for a winning season: The Redhawks start the season with quite a gauntlet: at Northwestern, Cincinnati, then at Notre Dame. If they can win 2 of those, they should be 3-1 when they open conference play at Toledo. They have perhaps the toughest MAC schedule, as they play all of the top contenders, and miss Akron, Buffalo, Ball State and WMU. I think they’ll get to 7+ wins, but won’t duplicate their 10 regular season wins from last year.
Chances to make a bowl game: There’s no doubt that they will make a 4th straight bowl game, and challenge for the MAC title.
Chances to make the 12-team playoff: Miami is trying for their 1st back-to-back MAC titles since 1974-75. If they can achieve that and go 3-1 in their OOC games, they have an outside chance of making it into the CFP.
Notes: The Redhawks won their last 5 regular season games, but lost to App State by 4 in the bowl; 2 of their 3 losses were by 4 points each, but only 2 of their 11 wins were by 7 pts or less; Miami has won 5 of their last 6 home games, and 7 of their last 8 road games; the Redhawks have been to a bowl 4 of the last 5 years, missing 2020; Miami used to be known as “The Cradle of Coaches” because so many great coaches got their start there, either as head coach or as an assistant (Google it); QB Brett Gabbert (1,634 yds, 59.4%, 14 TDs, 5 INTs) returns; P Alec Bevelhimer (45.0 avg, 43.2 net, 3rd team All-American) returns, but K will be new; Miami has 17 MAC titles, more than any other team.
47- UCLA Bruins 8-5/4-5
Coach: DeShaun Foster (1st year, 1st overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 0-0/.000/125th
3-year record/rank: 26-13/.667/T27th
6-year record/rank: 36-34/.514/T68th
10-year record/rank: 64-57/.529/62nd
Last League Title: 1998 Pac 10 champions/2012 Pac 12 South champions
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 2 years/2023/2023
Bowl Record/Rank: 17-20-1/.461/79th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 1954/9-0 under HC Red Sanders (were also 6-0-4 in 1939 under HC Babe Horrell)
Last Winless Season: 1924/0-5-3
All-time Record/Rank: 640-453-37/.579/36th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 25.75/79th/9th Pac 12
Rushing: 191.1/22nd/1st
Passing: 229.1/60th/9th
Total: 420.2/44th/7th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 18.08/15th/2nd
Rushing: 69.6/2nd/1st
Passing: 229.4/72nd/3rd
Total: 299/11th/1st
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 7/5
Schedule:
Aug 31 @ Hawaii
Sep 14 vs Indiana
Sep 21 @ LSU
Sep 28 vs Oregon
Oct 5 @ Penn State
Oct 12 vs Minnesota
Oct 19 @ Rutgers
Nov 2 @ Nebraska
Nov 8 vs Iowa
Nov 16 @ Washington
Nov 23 vs USC
Nov 30 vs Fresno State
Chances for a winning season: This is a tough one to pick, because the Bruins are in a new conference and are playing a completely different slate of games. They should go 2-1 in OOC games (at Hawaii, at LSU, and Fresno State), so they would need to be 5-4 in the Big Ten to get here. While they avoid Ohio State and Michigan, they play most of the other top contenders, such as Oregon, at Penn State, at Nebraska, Iowa, and USC. It won’t be easy, and I think 7 wins may be their ceiling, especially with a new coaching staff.
Chances to make a bowl game: This should be their goal as they adjust to a new conference, and it will be tough to get here. I’d say they have a 40% chance.
Chances to make the 12-team playoff: Razor thin, as they have a tough schedule, and won’t get close to the 9-win minimum bar.
Notes: The Bruins won 2 of their last 3 games, including the bowl over Boise State; after a 4-year drought, UCLA has been to 2 straight bowls, and to 32 bowls since 1975 (49 years); OL allowed 42 sacks; QB Ethan Garbers (1,136 yds, 67%, 11 TDs, 3 INTs) returns; both K and P could be new; UCLA has joined the Big Ten beginning this season; Bruins held 10 opponents to 22 points or less, but offense was held to 7 points on 3 separate occasions; UCLA only plays 1 team (USC) that they played last year.
46- Toledo Rockets 11-3/8-0
Coach: Jason Candle (9th year, 9th overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 65-35/.650/27th
3-year record/rank: 27-14/.659/29th
6-year record/rank: 44-28/.611/37th
10-year record/rank: 83-41/.669/19th
Last League Title: 2022 MAC champions/2023 MAC West champions
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 3 years/2023/2022
Bowl Record/Rank: 11-10/.524/46th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 1995/11-0-1 under HC Gary Pinkel
Last Winless Season: Never (since 1962- worst seasons were 1977 and ‘78 when they were 2-9 each season)
All-time Record/Rank: 581-451-24/.562/50th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 33.62/28th/1st MAC
Rushing: 202.8/11th/1st
Passing: 223.5/66th/1st
Total: 426.2/35th/1st
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 20.62/28th/3rd
Rushing: 147.2/57th/5th
Passing: 182.9/15th/3rd
Total: 330.1/31st/6th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 4/4
Schedule:
Aug 29 vs Duquesne
Sep 7 vs UMass
Sep 14 @ Mississippi State
Sep 21 @ WKU
Oct 5 vs Miami, OH
Oct 12 @ Buffalo
Oct 19 @ Northern Illinois
Oct 26 vs Bowling Green
Nov 2 @ Eastern Michigan
Nov 12 vs Central Michigan
Nov 20 vs Ohio
Nov 26 @ Akron
Chances for a winning season: The Rockets have a manageable OOC schedule, but with challenges at both Miss State and WKU. Within the MAC, they play all of the top contenders, but get Miami, BGSU, and Ohio all at home. I see at least 8 or 9 wins with this schedule.
Chances to make a bowl game: This should be a given.
Chances to make the 12-team playoff: They would need to be undefeated and dominant, as their SOS isn’t strong enough to even get a sniff.
Notes: The Rockets lost their last 2 games in 2023, ending a 10-game winning streak; Toledo has a 11-game home winning streak; their 3 losses were by a combined 12 points; 5 of their 11 wins were by 7 points or less; the Rockets have been to 15 bowls in the last 23 years, winning only 6; this is the 2nd time over the last 8 years Toledo has won 20 combined games in a 2-year period (2016-’17); this is another team that I could find year-by-year records dating only to the time they joined the FBS; offense scored 28+ in 9 games, and defense held 7 opponents to 17 points or less; ‘23 backup QB Tucker Gleason (184 yds, 70.6%, 0 TDs, 1 INT) is the likely starter; K Luke Pawlak (12-15 FGs, long of 44, 3rd team All-MAC) and P Emilio Duran (37.8 avg, 36.1 net) both return; Toledo hasn’t had a losing season since 2009.
45- Auburn Tigers 6-7/3-5
Coach: Hugh Freeze (2nd year, 12th overall FBS)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 88-50/.638/31st
3-year record/rank: 17-21/.447/T88th
6-year record/rank: 40-35/.533/63rd
10-year record/rank: 73-55/.570/49th
Last League Title: 2013 SEC champions/2017 SEC West champions
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year/2023/2018
Bowl Record/Rank: 24-21-2/.532/44th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: 2/2010
Last Undefeated Season: 2010/14-0 under HC Gene Chizik
Last Winless Season: 1950/0-10
All-time Record/Rank: 799-471-47/.625/19th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 27.25/65th/9th SEC
Rushing: 198.4/15th/3rd
Passing: 157.1/125th/14th
Total: 355.5/91st/10th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 21.92/38th/4th
Rushing: 159.4/83rd/12th
Passing: 201.7/29th/4th
Total: 361.1/51st/9th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 9/8
Schedule:
Aug 31 vs Alabama A&M
Sep 7 vs California
Sep 14 vs New Mexico
Sep 21 vs Arkansas
Sep 28 vs Oklahoma
Oct 5 @ Georgia
Oct 19 @ Missouri
Oct 26 @ Kentucky
Nov 2 vs Vanderbilt
Nov 16 vs ULM
Nov 23 vs Texas A&M
Nov 30 @ Alabama
Chances for a winning season: The Tigers should sweep their OOC games, as Cal at home looks like the only one that could be a challenge. Auburn misses Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee, but do play Oklahoma, Georgia, and Alabama, the latter 2 on the road. With 8 home games, the odds seem to be favorable.
Chances to make a bowl game: This should be expected on The Plains.
Chances to make the 12-team playoff: I don’t think they’re quite ready to make that leap just yet, but I can see 7 or 8 wins, and if they pull an upset or 2 and get to 9 or 10 wins, then they will be in the mix.
Notes: The Tigers open the season with 5 straight home games before their 1st road trip to Georgia on October 5 (their 1st of 3 consecutive games on the road, no home games in October); the War Eagles haven’t had a winning record since 2020 (17-21 in that span), their longest drought since 1975-77 (11-20-2); the Plainsmen have lost 3 of their last 5 home games, but have won their last 2 road games; AU has been to 33 bowl games in the last 42 years, including an 8-1 bowl record between 2002 and 2011; QB Payton Thorne (1,755 yds, 61%, 16 TDs, 10 INTs, 519 yds rushing, 3.9 ypc) returns; K Alex McPherson (13-13 FGs, long of 53, 40-40 PATs) and P Oscar Coleman (44.8 avg, 41.6 net) both return; since losing to FSU in the final BCS Championship Game, AU has averaged just over 7 wins a season; 3 of 7 losses were by 7 points or less, all to teams ranked in the top 13 at the time.
44- TCU Horned Frogs 5-7/3-6
Coach: Sonny Dykes (3rd year, 15th overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 89-72/.553/66th
3-year record/rank: 23-16/.590/T47th
6-year record/rank: 43-33/.566/54th
10-year record/rank: 83-46/.643/23rd
Last League Title: 2014 Big 12 co-champs/2011 Mountain West champions
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year bowl-less/2022/2022
Bowl Record/Rank: 18-17-1/.514/53rd
CFP Playoff Appearances: 1
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: 1/1938
Last Undefeated Season: 2010/13-0 under HC Gary Patterson
Last Winless Season: 1976/0-11
All-time Record/Rank: 684-574-57/.542/66th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 31.33/42nd/7th Big12
Rushing: 154.5/71st/10th
Passing: 312.2/7th/2nd
Total: 466.7/13th/4th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 27.83/81st/9th
Rushing: 154.7/75th/6th
Passing: 253.7/115th/12th
Total: 408.3/103rd/10th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 7/9
Schedule:
Aug 30 @ Stanford
Sep 7 vs Long Island
Sep 14 vs UCF
Sep 21 @ SMU
Sep 28 @ Kansas
Oct 4 vs Houston
Oct 19 @ Utah
Oct 26 vs Texas Tech
Nov 2 @ Baylor
Nov 9 vs Oklahoma State
Nov 23 vs Arizona
Nov 30 @ Cincinnati
Chances for a winning season: The Horned Frogs had a big drop to 5-7 following their National Championship Game appearance, so they will be looking to bounce back. There are 2 keys to that happening. First, the defense needs to improve by 3-7 ppg. Second, they need improved QB play with fewer turnovers. To the 2nd point, returning starter Hoover was not 100% last year, as he was dealing with a back issue, but appears to be healthy for this season. Their OOC games are all winnable, but 2 of the 3- Stanford and rival SMU- are on the road. In the Big 12, there is no more Texas or Oklahoma to deal with, and they avoid Kansas State, Iowa State, and WVU, but get to play Utah, Arizona, and Oklahoma State. This is a team that could contend for a conference title, but 7-9 wins seems more likely.
Chances to make a bowl game: Getting to 6 wins should be the bare minimum.
Chances to make the 12-team playoff: Only if they win the Big 12 title, but an 11-1 or 10-2 at-large bid is possible, depending on what happens elsewhere.
Notes: The Horned Frogs started 3-1, then collapsed to lose 6 of their last 8; 4 of their 7 losses were by 7 points or less; defense allowed 29+ points 5 times, while the offense scored 36+ points 6 times; TCU has been to only 1 bowl in the last 5 years, but went to 19 bowls between 1998 and 2018; QB will likely be between returning starter Josh Hoover (2,206 yds, 62.1%, 15 TDs, 9 INTs) and Vandy transfer Ken Seals (1,183 yds, 58.7%, 11 TDs, 4 INTs); both K and P will be new.
43- Florida Gators 5-7/3-5
Coach: Billy Napier (3rd year, 7th overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 51-26/.662/22nd
3-year record/rank: 17-21/.447/T88th
6-year record/rank: 46-30/.605/38th
10-year record/rank: 76-50/.603/T32nd
Last League Title: 2008 SEC champions, 2020 SEC East champions
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 1 year bowl-less/2022/2019
Bowl Record/Rank: 25-24/.510/55th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: 3/2008
Last Undefeated Season: 1911/5-0-1 under HC G.E. Pyle
Last Winless Season: 1979/0-10-1
All-time Record/Rank: 760-445-40/.627/17th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 28.42/59th/8th SEC
Rushing: 149.8/77th/8th
Passing: 259.3/45th/7th
Total: 409.1/49th/6th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 27.58/79th/11th
Rushing: 155.6/78th/11th
Passing: 226.7/69th/9th
Total: 382.3/70th/11th
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 8/6
Schedule:
Aug 31 vs Miami, FL
Sep 7 vs Samford
Sep 14 vs Texas A&M
Sep 21 @ Mississippi State
Oct 5 vs UCF
Oct 12 @ Tennessee
Oct 19 vs Kentucky
Nov 2 @ Georgia (Jacksonville)
Nov 9 @ Texas
Sep 16 vs LSU
Sep 23 vs Ole Miss
Sep 30 @ FSU
Chances for a winning season: UF’s last 5 games are brutal- Georgia in Jacksonville, at Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, at FSU- and the 2 games before then- at Tennessee, Kentucky- ain’t no picnic, either. With 11 P4 foes on the schedule (open with Miami, and also play UCF), getting to 5 wins may be tough, much less 7 or more.
Chances to make a bowl game: This is a minimum for the Gators to even think about keeping HC Napier. I don’t think they get there, not with their schedule.
Chances to make the 12-team playoff: Ain’t gonna happen.
Notes: The Gators enter the ‘24 season on a 5-game losing streak, their longest since another 5-game streak in 2017; UF has been to 33 bowls in the last 37 years, and 41 bowls in the last 51 years; 2 of 7 losses were by 3 points or less; offense scored 29+ points 6 times (high of 41), but the defense allowed 33+ points six times, including 43+ twice (high of 52); QB Graham Mertz (2,903 yds, 72.9%- led SEC, 20 TDs, 3 INTs) returns; defense forced only 7 turnovers, fewest in the SEC; K Trey Smack (17-21 FGs, long of 54) and P Jeremy Crawshaw (48.9 avg, 42.8 net) both return; Florida has had 3 consecutive losing seasons for the 1st time since 1945-47 (4-5-1, 0-9, 4-5-1); UF is 2-10 on the road the last 2 years, 3-14 the last 3 years.
42- Air Force Falcons 9-4/5-3
Coach: Troy Calhoun (18th year, 18th overall)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 130-82/.613/43rd
3-year record/rank: 29-10/.744/T10
6-year record/rank: 47-22/.681/19
10-year record/rank: 80-41/.661/20
Last League Title: 1998 WAC champions/2021 MWC Mountain co-champs
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 3 years/2023/2023
Bowl Record/Rank: 18-13-1/.550/5th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 9-0-2/1958
Last Winless Season: Never (since 1955)
All-time Record/Rank: 433-342-13 /.558/55th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 27.58 ppg- 64th/6th MWC
Rushing: 275.8 ypg- 2nd/1st
Passing: 88.3 ypg- 133rd/12th
Total: 364.1 ypg- 81st/8th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 17.92 ppg- 14th/1st
Rushing: 96.3 ypg- 10th/1st
Passing: 181 ypg- 13th/1st
Total: 277.3 ypg- 6th/1st
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 2/4
Schedule:
Aug 31 vs Merrimack
Sep 7 vs San Jose St
Sep 14 @ Baylor
Sep 28 @ Wyoming
Oct 5 vs Navy
Oct 12 @ New Mexico
Oct 19 vs Colorado St
Nov 2 @ Army
Nov 9 vs Fresno St
Nov 16 vs Oregon St
Nov 23 @ Nevada
Nov 30 @ San Diego St
Chances for a winning season: The Falcons play only 1 P4 foe this year- Baylor- and they are 5-0 against P5 teams since 2019. They also play Army and Navy, of course, with the former being on the road. In the MWC, they avoid Boise State and UNLV, and get Fresno State and Colorado State at home, meaning their most difficult road game is at Wyoming. AF is looking at 9 or 10 wins for a 4th straight season, as long as they get adequate QB play and the defense remains stout.
Chances to make a bowl game: They will make a 4th straight bowl.
Chances to make the 12-team playoff: The Falcons can only make it by winning the MWC, as their SOS isn’t strong enough to merit an at-large bid. It’s possible if they win the conference, but they’ll need to do it with 1 or no losses.
Notes: The Falcons are on a 4-game regular season losing streak (won their bowl over JMU); their 29 wins the last 3 years are their most over a 3-year period since they won 30 from 1983-85 (10-2, 8-4, 12-1); 2 of their 4 losses were by 8 points or less; loss to UNLV broke a 6-game home winning streak, but they are 14-4 at home the last 3 seasons; defense allowed more than 27 points just once (31 to UNLV); offense scored 30+ points 7 times, but were held to 19 or less 5 times; QB is likely to be 2023 backup Josh Busha (152 yds, 47.4%, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 11 yds rushing, 1 TD); HC Troy Calhoun has more experience coaching in the MWC than the other 11 coaches combined, and leads all active coaches with 77 conference wins; K Matthew Dapore (15-19 FGs, long of 50) returns, as do co-Ps Carson Bay (39.4 avg) and Luke Freer (42.7 avg), who combined for a 39.2 net; the Falcons have averaged almost 9 wins a season since 2014 (not including 6-game 2020); AF had a combined 115 yds on PRs and KORs last year; 8 of last 10 losses have been by 8 points or less; the Falcons have won 5 straight bowls, and have been to 13 bowls in the last 17 years, and 27 bowls in the last 42 years, including 6 consecutive years from 2007-2012.
41- Tulane Green Wave 11-3/8-0
Coach: Jon Sumrall (1st year, 3rd overall FBS)
Coach FBS Record/Rank: 23-4/.852/4th
3-year record/rank: 25-15/.625/T34th
6-year record/rank: 45-33/.577/48th
10-year record/rank: 60-66/.476/80th
Last League Title: 2022 AAC champions
Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 2 years/2023/2022
Bowl Record/Rank: 7-9/.438/87th
CFP Playoff Appearances: 0
AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None
Last Undefeated Season: 1998/12-0 under HC Tommy Bowden/HC Chris Scelfo (bowl win)
Last Winless Season: 1962/0-10
All-time Record/Rank: 564-674-38/.457/112th
Offense/ranks:
Scoring: 26.85/68th/8th AAC
Rushing: 156.8/67th/8th
Passing: 222.4/71st/9th
Total: 379.2/70th/8th
Defense/ranks:
Scoring: 18.92/19th/2nd
Rushing: 93.5/8th/1st
Passing: 239.2/92nd/9th
Total: 332.7/33rd/2nd
Returning Starters (Off/Def): 8/7
Schedule:
Aug 29 vs SE Louisiana
Sep 7 vs Kansas State
Sep 14 @ Oklahoma
Sep 21 @ Louisiana
Sep 28 vs USF
Oct 5 @ UAB
Oct 19 vs Rice
Oct 26 @ North Texas
Oct 31 @ Charlotte
Nov 9 vs Temple
Nov 16 @ Navy
Nov 28 vs Memphis
Chances for a winning season: The Green Wave play Kansas State at home and Oklahoma on the road in back-to-back weeks early in the season, but their games against an FCS team and at Louisiana look winnable. In the AAC, they avoid UTSA, ECU, and FAU, and they get USF and Memphis at home, so overall they have a favorables schedule. 8 wins should be the floor, with 10 or 11 the ceiling.
Chances to make a bowl game: Very high.
Chances to make the 12-team playoff: If they can upset either KSU or Oklahoma, then they could have a good case as an at-large if they lost the AAC CG, but they can’t suffer any upsets along the way, or that chance goes out the window. This is an unlikely scenario, but so was going from 2-10 in 2021 to 12-2 in 2022 with an upset comeback win over USC in the Cotton Bowl.
Notes: The Green Wave have a midseason stretch (Sep 14-Oct 31) where they play away from home 5 out of 7 games; Tulane is on a 2-game losing streak (AAC title game and bowl game) but has a 10-game regular season winning streak; their 23 wins the last 2 years are their most ever over a 2-year period; 4 of 11 wins were by 7 points or less, and 3 were by 3 or less; Tulane has won 10 away games in a row; the Wave have been to 5 bowls in the last 6 years; QB is undecided but could be ‘23 backup Kai Horton (604 yds, 54%, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) or Oregon transfer Ty Thompson (297 yds, 77%, 4 TDs, 1 INT); RB Makhi Hughes (1,378 yds, 5.3 ypc, 7 TDs, AAC Rookie of the Year) returns; K will be new, but P Will Karoll (44.1 avg, 40.6 net) returns.
Please come back tomorrow as we continue into the top half!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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