Paul's Picks Week 4
Welcome Back!
I had a fantastic week, going 54-9, a winning percentage of 85.7%. There are 64 games in total this week, so I'm sure my percentage will be coming down again, especially since every miss will count more.
Overall, I am 202-39, a percentage of 83.8%, and an increase of 0.7% from last week. There is absolutely no way I can maintain that, but I am still keeping my "pie-in-the-sky" goal at 80%, and my "realistic" goal at 75%.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, September 19
South Alabama @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers lead this series 4-1, winning the last 4, which means they lost the very 1st meeting to the Jaguars. ASU is 2-1 in games played in Boone. This is the conference opener for both teams. App State wins.
Friday, September 20
Stanford @ Syracuse- This will be the 1st meeting between these 2 teams, who are now both members of the ACC. The Orange are off to a surprising 2-0 start, while the Cardinal is 1-1, losing to TCU by 7 and running roughshod over an FCS team. Give the edge to Syracuse at home. The Orange wins the battle of the colors.
Illinois @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers lead the series 14-6-1, winning 20-7 last year in Champaign, but the Fighting Illini have won 3 of the last 4, the last 2 played in Lincoln, and are 4-7 against NU since the Huskers joined the Big Ten. The other 10 encounters took place between 1892 and 1986, with the tie occurring in 1953 (21-21). Based on early results, these seem like 2 teams on the rise in the Big Ten, with Nebraska allowing a mere 20 points so far, and the Illini 26, and the NU offense scoring 102 pts and Illinois 98. Even their strength of schedule so far is comparable. Go with the home team. Huskers win.
San Jose State @ Washington State- The Cougars lead the Spartans 8 wins to 4, with 1 tie: 13-13 in their 1st meeting in 1955. Wazzu has won the last 2, but those were played in 1996 and 2018. SJSU won the 2 games before this current streak, in 1980 and 1986. The other 8 games were played between 1955 and 1964. Both teams are a surprising 3-0, but WSU has played a tougher schedule. Cougars win on the Palouse.
Saturday, September 21
Marshall @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes have won both matchups, in 2004 and 2010 (since vacated), with both being played in Columbus, but the 2004 meeting was decided by only 3 points. OSU will pound the Thundering Herd. Bucks win.
NC State @ Clemson- The Tigers lead the series 60-30-1, but the Wolfpack have won 2 of the last 3. However, NC State hasn't won in Clemson since 2002, losing the last 9 played there. Clemson wins.
Florida @ Mississippi State- The Gators lead the series 34-19-2, and have won 3 of the last 4 (since 2005), but since 1992, the count is only 5-4 in UF's favor. The series began in 1923, and after playing 3 years in a row, went on hiatus until 1936, whereupon the Gators and Bulldogs played almost every year until the SEC split into divisions in 1992 (played through 1993). The only years skipped were 1943-53, and 1960-61. So far, both teams have been awful, but if the Gators can't win this one, they have no hope for a bowl. UF wins a close one.
Charlotte @ Indiana- The Hoosiers should defeat the 49ers easily in this 1st ever meeting.
Villanova @ Maryland- The Terrapins won 31-14 in their only previous meeting, in 2007. The Terps will win by a similar score.
James Madison @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels have won all 3 previous meetings by at least 23 points each. UNC defeats the Dukes again.
Houston @ Cincinnati- The Cougars lead the series 15-14, but the Bearcats have won the last 4, and 9 of the last 11. This should be a close, competitive game, but go with the home team. Cincy wins.
Kansas @ West Virginia- The Jayhawks are in danger of falling back into irrelevancy again, but so are the Mountaineers, as both teams are 1-2. WVU leads the series 10-2, but KU won the most recent contest, 55-42 in 2022 in Morgantown. All of the games have been played since the Mountaineers joined the Big 12 in 2012, except for one: WVU won 21-0 in 1941. This is another tough game to pick, so flip a coin. WVU wins.
Tulane @ Louisiana- The Green Wave lead the series 23-4, but after winning the 1st 16 meetings (from 1911 to 1987), the lead is only 7-6 (since 1988), Each team has won a bowl contest against the other, the Ragin' Cajuns in the 2013 New Orleans Bowl, and Tulane in the 2018 Cure Bowl, their last matchup. The Cajuns are 2-0, and were off last week, and though the Wave is 1-2, they have played well, losing to 2 P5 teams by a combined 22 points. Tulane wins.
Rice @ Army- This series is tied at 4-4-1, with the Black Knights winning the last 3 (2016-2019), the Owls winning the middle 4, from 2006-2015, and Army winning in 1958. The tie came in 1995 by a score of 21-21. This year, Rice has lost to Sam Houston and Houston by a combined 46 points, while the Knights are undefeated, and had a week off last week. Army wins a close one at home.
Ohio @ Kentucky- The Wildcats lead the series 4-2, and it's 2-1 in games played this century (and 2-1 last century). UK won games in 1910, 1987, 2003, and 2014, with the Bobcats winning in 1971 and 2004. Cats win again. Wildcats, that is.
Ball State @ Central Michigan- The Cardinals lead this series 28-27-1, winning the last 2 and 4 of the last 6, including 24-17 last year, and they have won the last 3, and 7 of the last 8, played in Mount Pleasant. Neither team is very good, so I'll go with the recent trends. BSU wins a close one over the Chippewas.
Arkansas State @ Iowa State- the Red Wolves have had a pretty tough early schedule, but have come out of it with a 2-1 record so far (loss to Michigan). The Cyclones are 2-0, and were off last week. ISU wins in this 1st ever meeting.
Virginia @ Coastal Carolina- The Chanticleers and Cavaliers have never played before, but the Chants have won 7 of their last 9 played at home. Expect CCU to give the Wahoos all they can handle, but UVA pulls out the win.
Utah State @ Temple- The Aggies and Owls have never met on the gridiron. Both teams are off to a rough start, but USU has lost to 2 P5 teams, while Temple has lost to another AAC member, a Sun Belt team, and an SEC team. Knowing that, it's very difficult to gauge how good either team is. Aggies win on the road.
St Francis (PA) @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles won the only previous meeting, 35-15 in 2021. They will have a similar result against the Red Flash.
Southern Miss @ Jacksonville State- The Golden Eagles lead the series 2-0, winning 58-0 and 65-0. In 1937 and 1946. Not sure there's a lot of relevance there. This year, USM is 1-2, with their lone win over an FCS team. JSU is 0-3, but they've lost to a Sun Belt team, at an ACC team, and at a MAC team, the latter in 2 OTs. Jax State wins at home.
Eastern Washington @ Nevada- The Wolf Pack are 8-1 against the Eagles, and a win here will make them 9-1. Nevada wins.
Kent State @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions have won all 6 games played between these 2 schools, and all but the 1st win, a 21-6 victory in 1965, has been decided by at least 20 points. They last played in 2018, a 63-10 PSU demolition of the Golden Flashes. Lions win big.
USC @ Michigan- The Trojans lead the Wolverines with 6 victories to 4, and 8 of the 10 meetings have been in the Rose Bowl: 1948, 1970, 1977, 1979, 1989, 1990, 2004, and 2007. USC has won 6 of the 8 played in the Rose Bowl, losing the 1st and in 1989; Michigan won the 2 played home-and-home in 1957 and '58. 7 of the 10 meetings were decided by 10 points or less, with UM winning 49-0 in 1948, and the Trojans winning 28-14 and 32-18 in their most recent 2 matchups. USC has a much improved defense, and while the Wolverines have a very good defense, their offense so far has left much to be desired. The Trojans haven't had problems scoring points under HC Riley, and they had an extra week to prepare. USC wins their 1st Big Ten game.
Miami (Oh) @ Notre Dame- The Fighting Irish lead the series 2-0, winning in 1909 and 2017. At least they're not waiting another century to meet again. Do you think the Irish remember the last time they played a MAC team? Do you think they'll take the Redhawks lightly? ND wins big.
Georgia Tech @ Louisville- The Yellow Jackets lead the series 2-1, with the Cardinals winning the only contest played in Louisville. The Cards were off last week, so they'll be ready to take down the Jackets. UL wins.
Buffalo @ Northern Illinois- The Huskies lead the series with the Bulls 13-2, including a win in the 2016 MAC Championship Game. Buffalo's 2 wins came in their 1st meeting, in 1968, and in 2020. Fortunately, NIU had a week off last week to give them time to return to Earth after their big win over Notre Dame. The Bulls are 2-1, with their only blemish a shutout loss to Missouri. Huskies win.
Arkansas @ Auburn- The Tigers lead the series 20-12-1, and have won 7 of the last 8, including 48-10 last year, but the Razorbacks won the last time they played on The Plains. These teams have played every year since the Hogs joined the SEC in 1992, and only played once previously, a War Eagle win in the 1984 Liberty Bowl. Arkansas looked good against Oklahoma State before they collapsed late, but they struggled to put away a bad UAB team. Auburn lost their only game of consequence, to Cal, and overwhelmed 2 overmatched opponents. This game could decide which of these 2 teams- if either- will have a chance to reach bowl eligibility. Tigers win at home.
Rutgers @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies lead the series 12-4, including a win in the 2012 Russell Athletic Bowl, but the Scarlet Knights won the most recent meeting, 35-16 last year in Piscataway. The teams played every year from 1992-2003, as both were members of the old Big East. Their other 4 meetings were the 2 listed earlier and in 1953 and 1920, both won by Rutgers. We don't know much about the team from New Jersey, as they haven't really played anyone, but they were off last week. VT opened with a loss to Vandy, but rebounded to handily beat 2 SBC teams. The Scarlet Knights have never won in Blacksburg (0-6), but they'll get their 1st here. Rutgers wins a close one.
Central Connecticut @ UMass- The Minutemen are 3-0 against the Blue Devils, and this game represents their best chance to get a win this year. They'll get it. UMass wins.
Youngstown State @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers lead the series over the Penguins 4-1, with a 14-point loss in 2012. That won't happen again. Pitt wins big.
Arizona State @ Texas Tech- This series is tied 2-2, with the Sun Devils winning in 1999 and 2016 in Tempe, and the Red Raiders winning in 2017 in Lubbock, and in the 2013 Holiday Bowl. As usual, TTU beat up on lesser teams and have lost to the only decent team on their schedule so far. ASU has gotten off to a surprising 3-0 start, with wins over teams from the MWC, SEC, and SBC. This will be the 1st game in the Big 12 foe the Sun Devils, and they should be pretty amped up about it. ASU wins.
Memphis @ Navy- The Tigers lead the series 6-3, including wins in each of the last 5 years, and they are 2-2 in Annapolis. The Midshipmen are 2-0 on the young season with their big win over Temple. Memphis is also undefeated, but has a win at FSU. I don't think the Tigers will take Navy lightly, especially since the Midshipmen were off last week. Memphis wins.
Houston Christian @ UTSA- The Roadrunners have never played the Huskies before, but they should take care of business. Meep, Meep! UTSA wins.
UCLA @ LSU- The Bruins travel to Baton Rouge to take on the Tigers, and the Bayou Bengals will be looking for revenge for their 38-27 loss in 2021. I think they get it. LSU wins in Death Valley.
Utah @ Oklahoma State- The Utes draw the Cowboys for their 1st Big 12 game, with OSU owning a 46-6 victory in their only previous meeting- in Salt Lake City- in 1945! The Utes are 3-0, and haven't looked overly impressive, but QB Cam Rising is expected back for this game. OSU is also 3-0, but needed 2 OTs to subdue a mediocre Arkansas team. This is another game that is hard to tell who will win right now, but the result will probably make sense in a few weeks. Utah wins on the road.
Duke @ Middle Tennessee- The Blue Devils won the only previous meeting, 41-18 in Murfreesboro. They should win this one, too, and probably by just as large a MOV.
Vanderbilt @ Missouri- If the Commodores had been able to hold their water against Georgia State last week, this would be a contest between 2 undefeated teams. Instead, it looks like the same ol' Vandy. Mizzou leads the series 11-4-1, and has won the last 4, and is 9-3 against the 'Dores since joining the SEC in 2012. The other games were played between 1895 and 1958, with Missouri holding a 2-1-1 edge. The Tigers win in CoMo.
TCU @ SMU- The Horned Frogs lead the series 53-42-7, winning the last 2, and 19 of the last 23 (since 1999). The teams have played every year since 1915 except for 1919-1920, 1925, 1987-88 (SMU was shut down for NCAA violations- the "Death Penalty"), and 2020. The Mustangs were off last week, a needed respite after suffering their 1st loss of the season to BYU. TCU is also 2-1, winning at Stanford and losing by 1 to UCF at home. The Frogs have won the last 7, and 10 of the last 11 played in Dallas, and they should win this one, too. TCU wins.
Monmouth @ FIU- The Panthers will be facing the Hawks for the 1st time, and will come away with the victory. FIU wins.
East Carolina @ Liberty- We've had a lot of 1st time meetings already this season, and this is yet another one. The Pirates barely lost to App state last week, but also barely beat ODU the week before. The Flames are 3-0, but have been much less dominant (thus far) than they were last year. ECU gets the win in Lynchburg, where LU has won 10 straight.
UTEP @ Colorado State- The Rams lead the series 25-10 over the Miners, winning 9 of the last 10, including in their last meeting in 2013. These teams 1st played each other in 1963, and played almost every year through 1998, skipping 1966 and 1996-97, but they've only played twice since. CSU has gotten off to a rough start (2 losses to P5 teams), but UTEP is just what the doctor ordered. Rams win.
Miami, Fl @ USF- The Hurricanes lead the series 5-1, with their only loss to the Bulls coming in 2010 in Miami Gardens. USF is 2-1, with their only blemish being a loss to Alabama. This should be a competitive game, at least until halfway through the 2nd quarter. Miami wins.
Northwestern @ Washington- The Huskies lead this series 3-0, with all the wins happening between 1980 and 1984. This will be the 1st Big Ten game for UW, and it's a great way to ease into the conference. The Wildcats are 2-1 with a 2 OT loss to Duke. U Dub is also 2-1, losing a close game last week to rival Washington State. Huskies win at home.
FAU @ UConn- The Huskies won the only previous matchup in 2002 by a score of 61-14, and that one was also in Storrs, Neither team is very good, but the Owls have an FBS victory (albeit over FIU) and a close loss to Michigan State, while UConn had a close loss to Duke last week. FAU wins to get revenge for a game that was played before any of their players were born. Probably.
California @ FSU- The Golden Bears open ACC play on the road to take on the Seminoles, and this seemed like a sure loss only a few short weeks ago. But that was before Cal started 3-0 with a win at Auburn, and before the Noles started 0-3, and 0-2 in the ACC. The last time FSU started 0-3 in the ACC was in 2020, but that comes with an asterisk- one of their losses was to Notre Dame, who was only in the ACC for that one year due to the pandemic. Before that, it was 2009. At some point, the Seminoles will win a game, but it won't be this week. Cal wins.
Florida A&M @ Troy- This series is tied 2-2, with the Rattlers winning in 1998 and 1999, and the Trojans in 2002 and 2018. Troy gets their 1st win of the season, and 1st ever win for HC Gerad Parker.
Tulsa @ La Tech- The Bulldogs lead the series 7-3, but the Golden Hurricane have won 2 of the last 3 and 3 of the last 5, including the last one played in Ruston. However, all the games occurred between 1986 and 2004 except for the most recent one in 2013. Each team has a win over an FCS team, so one of these 2 will get their 1st FBS win of the season. La Tech wins at home.
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston- Even though the Bearkats joined CUSA last year, these 2 teams didn't play, and so this will be their 1st meeting ever. The Aggies had an outstanding year in 2023, but have lost much of their firepower, including HC Jerry Kill. SHS is off to a 2-1 start, and have defeated teams from the MWC and the AAC so far, and have won 5 of their last 7 games overall. Bearkats win.
Toledo @ WKU- The Rockets are 3-0 with a win at Mississippi State by 24 points. The Hilltoppers are 2-1, losing at Alabama by 63. Toledo wins this 1st ever matchup.
Wyoming @ North Texas- The Cowboys and the Mean Green have never met before. Wyoming is 0-3, with losses to 2 P5 teams and to FCS Idaho. UNT is 2-1, but got routed last week at Texas Tech. This is a key game for each team as they try to reach a bowl. The Mean Green wins at home.
Tennessee @ Oklahoma- This is the game I am most excited to see. They've actually played 4 times before, with the Volunteers winning the 1939 Orange Bowl 17-0, and the Sooners winning the 1968 Orange Bowl 26-24, and in 2014 and 2015 to lead 3-1. OU will be playing their 1st SEC conference game, and it's a doozy. The Sooners are 3-0, but struggled to put away Houston and Tulane. The Vols are also 3-0, with big wins over all 3 opponents, including NC State, by a combined score of 191-13, and they've yet to allow an offensive TD. OU also has a stout defense, allowing only 34 points in 3 games. UT wins because it has the better offense.
Akron @ South Carolina- The Gamecocks won the only other contest with the Zips 28-3 back in 2018. This game will most likely have a similar score. SC wins.
Bowling Green @ Texas A&M- The Aggies will defeat the Falcons in this 1st ever meeting, adding to the the thousand victories the SEC has over MAC teams.
Iowa @ Minnesota- The Golden Gophers lead the series 63-52-2, winning 12-10 last year in Iowa City, but the Hawkeyes have won 8 of the last 9, and 5 of the last 6 played in Minneapolis. Each team has an OOC loss, Iowa to rival Iowa State by 1, and Minnesota to UNC by 2. Since that game, the Gophers have shut out an FCS team and Nevada. Iowa wins a close, low scoring contest.
Georgia Southern @ Ole Miss- The Rebels and Eagles have never played, so this will be the first time. GS has lost only to Boise State, but it won't matter, as the Rebels are undefeated, winning their 3 games by a combined score of 168-9. Rebs win.
ULM @ Texas- The Longhorns have defeated the Warhawks in both of their previous meetings by an average score of 55.5-15. That sounds about right. UT wins big.
Michigan State @ Boston College- The Eagles lead the Spartans by a score of 4-1-1, but those wins came in 1935, 1946, 1992, and the 2007 Champs Sports Bowl. The Spartans won in 1995, and the tie occurred in 1936. MSU is a surprising 3-0, with a win at Maryland. BC is "only" 2-1, with a win at FSU, and a 5-point loss at Missouri last week. This looks like a game between 2 evenly matched teams, and should be close. The Spartans eke this one out and win on the road.
Baylor @ Colorado- The Buffaloes lead the series 9-7, but the Bears have won 3 of the last 4, including the last matchup in 2010. Baylor also won in the 1986 Bluebonnet Bowl. Both teams are 2-1, as the Bears have a win over Air Force and a loss at Utah, and the Buffs have a win over rival Colorado State and a loss at Nebraska. This could decide who gets to finish next-to-last in the Big 12 ahead of Houston. Baylor wins.
Fresno State @ New Mexico- The Bulldogs lead the series 15-6, but the Lobos have won 2 of the last 4, including 25-17 last year in Fresno. FS has won 6 of the last 7 played in Albuquerque, and are 7-4 in New Mexico overall. UNM is 0-3, including a loss to an FCS team. Bulldogs win.
Purdue @ Oregon State- Each team has a win in this series, but this will be the 1st time that the Boilermakers travel to Corvallis and play in Reser Stadium. Both teams have a loss, with the Beavers losing to Oregon, and Purdue getting humiliated by Notre Dame. PU will play better this week, but OSU wins.
Portland State @ Boise State- The Broncos lead the series 7-1, and they will take care of the Vikings once again. BSU wins.
Kansas State @ BYU- This series is tied at 4 wins apiece, with the Cougars holding a win over the Wildcats in their last meeting in the 1997 Cotton Bowl. The Cats have never defeated BYU in Provo (0-3), but there's always a 1st time. KSU wins.
Northern Iowa @ Hawaii- The Panthers travel all the way to Honolulu for just the 2nd meeting ever in this series, and just like the 1st time, the Rainbow Warriors will prevail. Hawaii wins.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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