Paul's Picks- Bowls Part III

Welcome Back!

As proof of my honesty, I completely missed on my 1st pick by the time I post this (not included in my record below). I've had this written for a couple of days, but just forgot to post it this morning, as I was out trying to get a car for my youngest son.

The bowls are off to a rough start for me, as I am 9-8 so far, a pretty crummy 52.9%. There are 29 more games to be played, so maybe I can do better (but don't count on it...).

Here are how each conference is doing so far:

SEC 2-1
Big Ten 2-2
ACC 0-4!
B XII 1-1
P12 0-0
Ind 1-0
AAC 3-1
MWC 1-2
SBC 3-2
MAC 3-2
CUSA 1-2

Bowl games are notoriously difficult to pick, as opt outs, coaching changes, and motivation (or lack thereof) can all affect the outcome. But I shall give it the old college try, and predict the winners with very little knowledge of who will or will not be playing for every team. Yay!

Now... on with the picks!


Friday December 27


Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Oklahoma vs Navy (Fort Worth, TX)- The Midshipmen own a 10-0 win in the only previous contest between these 2, but that was in 1965 under HC William Elias. The Armed Forces Bowl, formerly the Fort Worth Bowl, has been played since 2003, and while this will be OU's 1st appearance, Navy is 1-1, winning in 2013 and losing in 2016. The AAC is 2-3 in this bowl, and the SEC is 1-1 (as is the Big XII). Overall, the Sooners are 31-25-1 in bowls, losing their last 2, but this will be their 26th consecutive bowl trip, starting in 1999. OU was only 6-6 this year, losing 2 of their last 3, and 5 of their last 7 after starting the season 4-1. The Midshipmen are 12-11-1 in bowls, winning their last and 5 of their last 6. Navy is 9-3 and fresh off their 31-13 win over Army to claim the Commander-in-Chief Trophy, which closed their regular season with 3 wins in their last 4 games. Navy has won their last 4 bowl contests against P5 competition, but the Sooners will win.


Birmingham Bowl

Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt (Birmingham, AL)- The Yellow Jackets lead this series 20-15-3, winning the last 6 (since 1966), and 12 of the last 13 (since 1948), with a tie in 1965. They've played only 4 times this century, beginning in 2002, which was their 1st meeting since 1967. While they didn't play every year (their longest run was from 1924-1941), they did share 2 conferences together- the Southern Conference from 1922-1932, and the SEC from 1933-1963, and since 1924, they've been playing for the Cowbell Trophy. The Birmingham Bowl has been around since 2006, with the Commodores getting a win over Houston in January of 2014 (2013 season), but this will be GT's 1st appearance here. The SEC is 4-4 in this bowl, and the ACC is 2-2. Vandy is 4-4-1 in bowls, losing their last 2. The Jackets are 26-20 in bowls, defeating UCF last year in the Gasparilla Bowl. This year, the Dores started the season 5-2, but lost 4 of their last 5 to finish 6-6. GT is 7-5, winning 2 of their last 3 with the lone loss in that span to UGA, in 8 OTs. This looks like an evenly matched contest, but I'm going with GT to get the win.


AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Texas Tech vs Arkansas (Memphis, TN)- The Razorbacks lead the series between these 2 old Southwest Conference rivals by a record of 29-8, but the Red Raiders have won 3 of the last 4 (between 1990 and 2015). These teams played every year from 1957 (TTU joined the SWC in 1960) through 1991, whereupon the Hogs left for the SEC, and they've only played twice since, in 2014 & 2015. The Liberty Bowl has been around since 1959, and it was originally played in Philadelphia, and spent 1 year in Atlantic City before settling in Memphis in 1965. The Piggies have made more appearances in this game than any other team, and they are 3-3 here, winning in 2010, 2016, and 2022, and losing in 1971, 1984, and 1987, all 3 to SEC teams. TTU is 1-0 in this game, winning in 2021 over Miss State. The SEC is 21-11 in this game; the Big XII is 4-7. UA is yet another 6-6 SEC team, losing 3 of their last 4. They are 17-24-3 in bowls, winning the last 2. The Red Raiders are a similar 17-23-1 in bowls, and they finished the season 8-4, winning their last 2. Like so many others, this may come down to depth due to opt outs and transfers. Sooooo Pig! Razorbacks win a close one.


DirectTV Holiday Bowl

Syracuse vs Washington State (San Diego, CA)- The Orange defeated the Cougars 52-25 back in September... of 1979, and that remains their only meeting until now. The Holiday Bowl is one of those that's been around for a while, beginning play in 1979 to give the WAC champion a place to play (the WAC champion previously had played in the Fiesta Bowl, but that bowl moved on when Arizona and Arizona State joined the Pac 8, making it the Pac 10). With this game, WSU moves into a tie with Texas for 2nd most appearances here with 5 (BYU has 11!), as they are 1-3 so far, with a win in 2003, and losses in 1981, 2016, and 2017. This will be Syracuse's 1st time in San Diego.The Pac 12 has played the most games here, going 9-18, and the ACC is 0-2, losing each of the last 2 years. The Orange are 16-11-1 in bowls, losing their last 2, but they are 9-3, winning their last 3 to accomplish their most wins since they were 10-3 in 2018 undo HC Dino Babers. Wazzu is 8-10 in bowl games, losing their last 3, and they lost the last 3 games of the regular season (by a combined 7 points!) to finish 8-4 (and lost their coach, too!). The Orange win to hand the ACC their 1st win in this bowl.


SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Texas A&M vs USC (Las Vegas, NV)- The Trojans are 3-0 versus the Aggies, winning in 1964 in LA, and in the 1975 Liberty Bowl and the 1977 Bluebonnet Bowl, with 19 points the closest point spread. The Las Vegas Bowl has been played yearly since 1992 (except for 2020), with USC 1-1 here (win in 2013 and loss in 2001), and TAMU making their 1st appearance. The Big Ten is 2-0 here (Pac 12 10-11) and the SEC is 0-2, with one of the losses to the Pac 12 (UF lost to OSU in 2022). USC is 36-21 in bowls all-time, one of the better winning percentages (.632) of any FBS team, but they've lost 3 of their last 4. The Trojans were only 6-6 this year, but did win 2 of their last 3. The Aggies are 20-23 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4 (lost to Okla St last year), and though they finished the season at 8-4, they lost their last 2, and 3 of their last 4. Aggies win big.


Saturday, December 28


Wasabi Fenway Bowl

UConn vs North Carolina (Boston, MA)- The Tar Heels own 3 victories over the Huskies- in 1990 and 2008 in Chapel Hill, and in 2009 in East Hartford- but the latter 2 have been vacated. This will be the 1st appearance in the Fenway Bowl for each team, as the game has only been around since 2022. However, the ACC is 2-0 so far against the ACC here. UNC is 15-23 in bowl games, losing their last 4, and they'll be playing this one under interim HC Freddie Kitchens (before Bill Belichick takes over). This year the Heels were 6-6, losing their last 2, but half of their 6 losses were by 7 points or less, with 2 of those at home. The Huskies are 3-4 in bowls, but they've lost their last 3 (since 2010). UConn is 8-4, their most wins since they were 8-5 in 2010, and a win here would match their 9-4 record from 2007, which was the start of the best 4-year run (33-19 under HC Randy Edsall) since the Huskies rejoined the FBS in 2000. But while the 8-4 record looks good, the Huskies were 0-4 vs P5 competition, losing at Maryland 50-7 in the season opener, and at Duke (26-21), Wake Forest (23-20 at home), and at Syracuse (31-24). Their wins were against an FCS team, 4 bottom-feeder AAC teams, 1 MAC team, last place Sun Belt team Ga State, and at UMass. While UConn has shown they can play P5 teams close, they haven't shown they can defeat them, as they've lost their last 8 (last win was 13-3 over BC in 2022, which was their 1st since 2016). UNC wins, but it will probably be close.


Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

Boston College vs Nebraska (Bronx, NY)- This will be a 1st-time meeting between these 2 teams. The Pinstripe Bowl has been played since 2010, with this appearance by BC tying Syracuse and Rutgers for the most by any team, though they are 0-2 so far, losing to Penn State in OT in 2014 and to Iowa in 2017. Nebraska has never played here before. The Eagles are 15-13 all-time in bowls, winning the Fenway Bowl last year over SMU, but 2 of their last 4 bowl appearances ended up being canceled. This year, BC went 7-5, winning their last 2 and 3 of their last 4, all against other bowl teams. The Cornhuskers are 26-27 in bowl games, but this is their 1st appearance in any bowl since 2016, breaking the longest P5 bowl drought. UN is 6-6, but after starting the season 5-1, the Huskers went 1-5 in the 2nd half of the season. These teams seem to be evenly matched. BC wins.


Isleta New Mexico Bowl

Louisiana vs TCU (Albuquerque, NM)- This is yet another 1st time matchup in this year's bowl lineup. The New Mexico Bowl has been played annually since 2006, but both of these teams will be making their 1st appearance here. The Horned Frogs are 18-7-1 in bowls, but lost their last appearance, a 65-7 demolition in the CFP Championship Game to UGA. They rebounded from a down year last year to finish 8-4, winning their last 3, and 5 of their last 6. The Ragin' Cajuns are 6-5 in bowl games, losing their last 2 (1 in OT). Ul was 10-3 this year, losing to Tulane by 8, South Alabama by 2, and to Marshall 31-3 in the SBC CG. Surprisingly, all 3 losses were at home, as the Cajuns have were 6-0 on the road this season. Fear the Frogs! TCU wins.


Pop-Tarts Bowl

Iowa State vs Miami, Fl (Orlando, FL)- The Hurricanes have won all 4 previous matchups, in 1950, 1966, 1990, and 1992. The 1st 3 took place in Miami, and the final one in Iowa City, and the last 3 were won by at least 17 points each. The Pop-Tarts Bowl has been around since 1990, and has been known by several names, including the Blockbuster Bowl, the CarQuest Bowl, the MicronPC Bowl, the Tangerine Bowl (in a revival of the original name of the Florida Citrus Bowl), the Champs Sports Bowl, the Russell Athletic Bowl, the Camping World Bowl, and the Cheez-It Bowl. Miami is 3-3 here, last appearing in 2020, and this appearance will make them the team that has played here the most. Iowa State is 0-2 here, last appearing in 2019. The Canes are 19-24 in bowls, losing their last 5, and 11 of their last 12. They are 10-2, but lost 2 of their last 3 to drop out of ACC CG and CFP consideration. Much will depend on how motivated they are to play in this game after the disappointing end to their season. The Cyclones are 5-13 in bowl games, losing their last 2, and 6 of their last 8. The 'Clones are 10-3, winning their last 3 regular season games to make the Big XII CG, whereupon they lost to Arizona State by a score of 45-19. As of this writing, all of the main stars for both teams are planning to play. Miami's stars are better than ISU's. Canes win.


Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

Miami, Oh vs Colorado State (Tucson, AZ)- The Redhawks are 2-0 against the Rams, winning 41-21 in 2003 in Fort Collins, and by a score of 31-10 in Oxford in 2010. The Arizona Bowl was 1st played in 2015, and while this will be Miami's 1st appearance, CSU is 0-1, losing to Nevada in the inaugural version. The Rams are 6-11 in bowls, losing their last 4 (since 2014, but this is their 1st appearance in any bowl since 2017. CSU is 8-4, winning 6 of their last 7, but those wins were mostly against teams at or near the bottom of the MWC. The Redhawks are 8-7 in bowls, losing their last 2, and 4 of their last 5. Miami is 8-5, and had won 7 straight before losing to Ohio in the MAC CG. This should be a competitive game, with the Redhawks coming out on top.


Go Bowling Military Bowl

East Carolina vs NC State (Annapolis, MD)- The Wolfpack lead this series 19-13, winning the last 3 (since 2018), but the series is 3-3 since 2010, and the Pirates lead 8-7 since 1987, including a win in the 1992 Peach Bowl. ECU is 7-9 in bowl games, winning their last one in 2022. They won 4 of their last 5 games to end the season at 7-5, a huge turnaround from being 2-10 last year. NC State is17-17-1 all-time in bowls, losing their last 4 (since 2018). NCSU lost 2 of their last 3 to finish at 6-6. Pirates win.


Valero Alamo Bowl

BYU vs Colorado (San Antonio, TX)- The Buffaloes lead the series 8-3-1, but the Cougars have won 3 of the last 4, including the most recent matchup in the 1988 Freedom Bowl. The teams 1st played in 1923, then played 9 times between 1934 and 1947 (the tie was in 1941), but then didn't play until 1981. Both of these teams were very close to playing for the Big XII Championship, but a late loss (or 2) kept them out. The Alamo Bowl has been around since 1993, and CU is 0-3 here, losing in 2002 in OT to Wisconsin, in 2016 to Oklahoma State, and in 2020 to Texas. This will be their 3rd straight appearance here. BYU has never played here before now.The Buffs are 12-18 in bowls, losing their last 4 (since 2005). They had a stellar year at 9-3, their best record since they were 10-4 in 2016 under HC Mike MacIntyre. Their losses were at Nebraska, to Kansas State, and at Kansas. BYU is 17-22-1 in bowl games, winning their last bowl in 2022. Like CU, they also had a bounce back season, finishing at 10-2 with losses to Kansas and at Arizona State by a combined 9 points. A comparison of common opponents- of which there were 8!- seems to show a slight advantage to BYU. Cougars win a close one.


Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

La Tech vs Army (Shreveport, LA)- This game was initially supposed to pit SBC champion Marshall against AAC champion Army, but the Thundering Herd dropped out, leaving the Independence Bowl to scramble to find a replacement. Fortunately, La Tech was available to fill the slot, as the Black Knights deserve to play in a bowl. Army has won both previous meetings, in 2008 in West Point and in 2013 in Ruston. The Independence Bowl has been played since 1976, so named because that was the year of the US Bicentennial. With this appearance, the Bulldogs will have the most appearances of any team. They are currently 3-1-1 here, winning in 1977, 2008, and 2019, and losing in 1978. The tie occurred in 1990. Army is 0-1, losing in 1996 by 3 to Auburn. The Black Knights are 11-2, winning the AAC CG over Tulane, but losing to Navy a week later. Their other loss was to Notre Dame. The Bulldogs were only 5-7, but won 2 of their last 3, with their best win over CUSA title game participant WKU. Army wins big.


Monday December 30


TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Iowa vs Missouri (Nashville, TN)- The Tigers lead this series 7-6, but the Hawkeyes won the most recent meeting 27-24 in the 2010 Insight Bowl. All of the other matchups were between 1892 and 1910. The Music City Bowl has been around since 1998, with Iowa 1-0 here (21-0 win in 2022 over Kentucky) and Mizzou making their 1st appearance. Big Ten teams are 6-4 in this bowl, winning their last 3, while SEC teams are 9-15, losing their last 4. The Hawkeyes are 18-17-1 in bowls, losing 35-0 last year to Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl. Iowa won 4 of their last 5 to end their season at 8-4. The Tigers are 16-20 in bowl games, beating Ohio State 14-3 last year in the Cotton Bowl. Mizzou is 9-3, winning their last 2, but had losses at Texas A&M (41-10), at Alabama (34-0), and at SC (34-30). Missouri wins.


Tuesday, December 31


ReliaQuest Bowl

Alabama vs Michigan (Tampa, FL)-  This series is tied at 3 wins each, with 5 of the 6 meetings being in bowl games. The Crimson Tide have wins in the 1997 Outback Bowl, the 2012 opener in Arlington, and in the 2020 Citrus Bowl. The Wolverines have wins in the 1988 Hall 0f Fame Bowl, the 2000 Orange Bowl, and the 2024 Rose Bowl, a CFP Semi-Final Game last year. The ReliaQuest Bowl, originally known as the Hall of Fame and then the Outback Bowl, has been played since 1986. UM has the most appearances, winning in 1988 over Alabama, 1994 over NC State, and 2003 over Florida, and their losses were to Alabama in 1997, and to South Carolina in 2013 and 2018. Bama is 1-1 here, with both games against Michigan. The Big Ten is 13-22 here, while the SEC is 21-13. The Tide are 46-26-3 in bowl games, winning 5 of their last 7, and 11 of their last 15 (including 3 losses in the National Championship Game). At 9-3 this year, the UA season must be qualified as disappointing, especially considering losses to 6-6 teams Oklahoma and Vandy, along with a loss to Tennessee, but all 3 were on the road. They also have wins at Wisconsin and LSU, and vs UGA and SC at home. The Wolverines are 23-29 in bowls, winning both games last year to claim the 2023 National Championship, but they "stumbled" to 7-5 this year, but that included a 4th straight win over Ohio State. If they play well, Bama should win easily. If they don't, they could lay an egg like they did against Oklahoma. The Tide rolls.


Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Louisville vs Washington (El Paso, TX)- These teams have never battled on the gridiron before. The Sun Bowl is one of the oldest bowl games, having been played every year since 1935 (except for 2020), making it the 2nd oldest bowl game (tied with the Sugar and Orange Bowls) behind the Rose Bowl. The Huskies are 1-3 here, winning in 1979 over Texas (14-7), and losing in 1986 (28-6 to Alabama), 1995 (38-18 to Iowa), and 2002 (34-24 to Purdue). The Cardinals have a win in 1958, 34-20 over Drake. The Big Ten is 5-7 in the Sun Bowl (Pac 12 is 19-14-1) and the ACC is 6-11 here. Overall, UW is 20-21-1 in bowls, winning 3 of their last 4 (loss to Michigan in last year's NC Game) and UL is 12-13-1, losing in the Holiday Bowl last year to USC. The Huskies are only 6-6, losing 4 of their last 6, but they do have wins over Michigan, USC, and UCLA. The Cards are 8-4, winning their last 2, and 4 of their last 5, but that loss was at Stanford. To me, this is a coin toss type game, but I'll go with the team with the better record (and stats). Cardinals win.


Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

South Carolina vs Illinois (Orlando, FL)- This will be the 1st ever meeting between these 2 squads. The Citrus Bowl began play in 1947 as the Tangerine Bowl, then became the Florida Citrus Bowl in 1983, then the Capital One Bowl, before cycling through several sponsors to the current one. The Gamecocks are 2-1 here, losing in 1975 to Miami, Ohio, and wining in 2012 over Nebraska and 2014 vs Wisconsin. The Fighting Illini have a win in 1990 over Virginia. The SEC is 25-14-1 here, while the Big Ten is 13-19. The Illini are 8-12 in bowl games, losing their last contest to Ole Miss in 2022. This year UI is 9-3, with losses at Penn State by 14, at Oregon by 29, and vs Minnesota by 8, but they ended the season with 3 straight wins. SC is also 9-3, with losses to LSU by 3, Ole Miss by 24, and at Alabama by 2, but they finished the season as one of the hottest teams around, with 6 wins in a row, including over Texas A&M by 24, Missouri by 4, and at Clemson by 3. Gamecocks win.


Kinder's Texas Bowl

Baylor vs LSU (Houston, TX)- The Tigers lead the series 8-3, but 2 of Baylor's 3 wins came in the 1963 Bluebonnet Bowl and the 1985 Liberty Bowl in their last meeting, meaning the Bears are 2-0 against LSU in bowl games. The Texas Bowl has been around since 2006, with the Bears 1-1 here (win in 2018 over Vandy and loss in 2010 to Illinois) and the Tigers winning their only appearance in 2015 over Texas Tech (since vacated). The Big XII is 8-6 here, while the SEC is only 2-6. The Bayou Bengals are 30-24-1 in bowls, winning their last 2 and 7 of their last 9. At 8-4, this season has to be viewed as a disappointment, especially after 2 straight 10-win seasons in a row. Losses were to USC in the season opener, at Texas A&M, to Alabama, and at Florida, but they ended the season winning their last 2 over Vandy and Oklahoma. The Bears are 14-13 in bowl games, losing 2 of their last 3. Baylor is also 8-4, but that has to be considered a huge success following seasons of 6-7 and 3-9, and they ended their season with 6 wins in a row. 3 of their losses were on the road, at Utah, Colorado (in OT), and Iowa State, and the other loss was to BYU at home by 6. This should be a good game! Baylor wins.


College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl

6 Penn State vs 3 Boise State (Glendale, AZ)- This will be the 1st-ever meeting between these 2 programs. The Fiesta Bowl was established in 1971, and the Nittany Lions are 7-0 here, winning in 1977, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1992, 1997, and 2017. The Broncos are also undefeated here, winning in 2007, 2010, and in 2014. Penn State is now 1-0 in the CFP, beating SMU handily, and they claim national championships in 1911 and 1912 (NCF), and by consensus in 1982 and 1986 (AP and other polls). This will be Boise State's 1st appearance in the CFP, and they have national championships in 1958 (Junior College) and 1980 (FCS). Big Ten teams are 8-5 in the Fiesta Bowl, with Mountain West teams 2-1 (WAC teams were 6-3). PSU is now 32-20-2 in bowl/CFP games, winning 2 of their last 3, and their losses in a 12-2 season were to Ohio State by 7 and to Oregon in the Big Ten CG, also by 7. The Broncos are 13-8 in bowl games, with their lone loss at Oregon by 3 in a 12-1 season. While I think BSU has a chance, and will keep it relatively close, the Lions will pull away at the end to win.


Wednesday, January 1


College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

5 Texas vs 4 Arizona State (Atlanta, GA)- The Longhorns own a 52-34 win in the 2007 Holiday Bowl over the Sun Devils in their only prior meeting. The Peach Bowl began in 1968, and while ASU is 1-0 in Atlanta (win in 1970 over UNC by a score of 48-26), this will be UT's 1st appearance here (though they did play the SEC CG here a few weeks ago). Texas is now 1-1 in CFP games, and they claim national titles in 1963, 1969, 1970 (NFF, UPI), and 2005. This will be ASU's 1st appearance in the CFP, and they have never won a national championship in football. SEC teams are 23-16-1 in the Peach Bowl, and Big XII teams are 1-1 (Pac 12 teams are 0-1). The Horns are now 32-26-2 in bowl/cfp games, and they are 12-2 this year with their only losses to Georgia (twice). The Sun Devils are 15-17-1 in bowls, losing 8 of their last 11, but they are 11-2 this year with losses at Texas Tech and at Cincinnati, and a Big XII CG win over Iowa State. This is another game I think will be close, but I think UT escapes to play the winner of the next game. 


College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl

8 Ohio State vs 1 Oregon (Pasadena, CA)- The Buckeyes lead this series 9-2, but the Ducks have won the last 2 contests, including 32-31 earlier this season. Among OSU's wins are 1958 (1st meeting) and 2010 Rose Bowls, and a victory in the 2015 National Championship Game (2014 season), their last win in the series. The Rose Bowl was 1st played in 1902, but it wasn't played again until 1916, and it's been played every year since. Ohio State, at 9-7, has the 3rd most appearances here, behind USC and Michigan, but are tied with Michigan for the 2nd most wins. Oregon is 4-4 in the Rose Bowl, with the Big Ten 35-39, and the Pac 8/10/12 52-46-3. Yes, I know the Ducks are no longer in the Pac 12, but that record seems a little more relevant with this being their 1st year in the Big Ten, which I guess will be ascribed with both a win and a loss after this game. What a weird time we are experiencing. Anyway, the Bucks are 4-4 in CFP games (and 1-2 in the BCS), with UO 1-1 in the CFP, and 0-1 in the BCS. OSU claims 8 national titles: 1942 (HC Paul Brown), 1954, 1957 (FWAA/UPI), 1961 (FWAA), 1968, 1970 (NFF)- all under HC Woody Hayes, 2002 (HC Jim Tressel), and 2014 (HC Urban Meyer). The Ducks have never won a national championship in football, but have finished at #2 three times: in 2001 (11-1 under HC Mike Belloti), in 2012 (12-1 under HC Chip Kelly), and in 2014 (13-2 under HC Mark Helfrich). The Quack Attack is 17-20 in bowl games, winning their last 2, and they are the only remaining undefeated team in the FBS. The Bucks are 27-29 in bowls, losing their last 2, and they are 11-2, with losses at Oregon by 1 and to Michigan by 3 at home. Many people consider this the "true" national championship game, but I'm not sure either will win the NC. However, this should be a fantastic game with lost of intrigue. Will the Buckeyes get revenge? Will the layoff hurt the Ducks? Which defense can get the most stops? I think OSU is more talented, but Oregon is more battle tested (meaning they have done better in close games, 4-0 vs 2-2) and will pull out a close game. UO wins.


College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

7 Notre Dame vs 2 Georgia (New Orleans, LA)- The Bulldogs have won all 3 meetings with the Fighting Irish: 17-10 in the 1981 Sugar Bowl, 20-19 in South Bend in 2017, and 23-17 in Athens in 2019. The Sugar Bowl has been played annually since 1935, and UGA has made the 3rd most appearances here, behind Alabama and LSU. However, the Dawgs are only 5-6, making them 5th in the number of wins behind Ole Miss and Oklahoma, along with the 2 listed above (a win in this game would put them in a tie for 2nd in number of wins at 6). Notre Dame is 2-2 here, with wins in 1973 over Alabama and 1992 over Florida, and losses to UGA in 1981 and to LSU in 2007. The SEC is 42-38-1 in the Sugar Bowl, while Independents, which used to number a LOT more than just 3 teams, are 12-12-1. Notre Dame is 1-2 in CFP games, but claim 13 national titles: 1919 (9-0 under HC Knute Rockne- NCF), 1924 (10-0 under Rockne- NCF/HELMS), 1929 and 1930 (9-0/10-0 in Rockne's last 2 years at the helm- NCF/HELMS), 1943 (9-1), 1946 (8-0-1), 1947 (9-0) and 1949 (10-0) all under Frank Leahy, 1964 (9-1 NFF), 1966 (9-0-1), and 1973 (11-0) under Ara Parseghian, 1977 (11-1 under Dan Devine), and 1988 (12-0 under Lou Holtz). UGA is 5-1 in CFP games, and claims 3 national crowns: 1942 (several polls, though #2 in AP) under HC Wally Butts (11-1), 1980 (12-0 under Vince Dooley), and 2021 (14-1)and 2022 (15-0) under current HC Kirby Smart. The Irish are 22-21 in bowl/CFP games, winning their last 2, and their 12-1 record includes a loss to Northern Illinois, but quality wins at Texas A&M, Louisville, Ga Tech by 18 (a team UGA needed 8 OTs to put away), Navy, Army, at USC, and Indiana in the 1st round of the CFP. the Dawgs are 38-21-3 in bowls, winning their last 7, and 11 of their last 13 (since 2012), as they hold the longest bowl streak in the FBS- 28 consecutive seasons, since 1997. Would that streak have ended if they had played a 1st round CFP game and lost, since that's technically not a bowl game? Maybe we should start calling it a postseason streak. The Bulldogs finished the season as SEC Champions for the 2nd time in 3 years, and at 11-2, have losses at Alabama and Ole Miss, but quality wins over Clemson, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas (twice!). UGA will be starting backup QB Gunner Stockton, who's seen very little live action in his 3 years in Athens, but seems to have tons of potential. ND is also missing key players due to injury. I'm skeptical, but going with HOW BOUT THEM DAWGS! 



Thursday, January 2


Tax Slayer Gator Bowl

Duke vs Ole Miss (Jacksonville, FL)- The Blue Devils and Rebels have never played before. The Gator Bowl has been played yearly since 1946, with Ole Miss 1-2 here, winning in 1958 (over Florida), and losing in 1971 (to Auburn) and in 1991 (to Michigan). This will be Duke's 1st appearance. The SEC is 28-16-1 here (with some games resulting in both a win and a loss), while the ACC is 19-14. The Blue Devils are 6-8 in bowls, winning their last 5, and were 9-3 this year with losses to SMU, and at GT and Miami. The Rebels are 25-16 in bowl games, beating Penn State last year in the Peach Bowl. They are also 9-3, with losses to Kentucky and at LSU and Florida, but do have wins over SC and UGA (by 18). Ole Miss wins.


Friday January 3


ServPro First Responder Bowl

North Texas vs Texas State (Dallas, TX)- The Mean Green lead this series 29-7-3, winning the last 3, but these teams haven't met since 1994. They 1st played in 1915 and 1916, then played annually from 1920-1949 (sans the WWII years of 1943-45), and then again 1984-1994 (minus 1985 for some reason), so this will be their 1st meeting in 30 years. The First Responder Bowl has been played since 2011, and was 1st known as the TicketCity Bowl, and then the Heart of Dallas Bowl before settling on its present name in 2018. UNT is 1-1 here, winning in 2014 over UNLV and losing to Army in OT in 2016. The Bobcats are 1-0, defeating Rice last year in their only bowl appearance in their history. Meanwhile, the Mean Green are 2-11 all-time in bowls, losing their last 5, with 4 of those losses by 13+ points each. UNT is 6-6, losing 5 of their last 6 after starting their season 5-1, but they did win their last game over Temple. TSU is 7-5, winning 3 of their last 4, and a win here would tie last year with their best record at the FBS level. Bobcats win.


Duke's Mayo Bowl

Minnesota vs Virginia Tech (Charlotte, NC)- These teams have never met, despite the fact the Golden Gophers have been playing football since 1882, and the Hokies since 1892. The Duke's Mayo Bowl began in 2002 as the Continental Tire Bowl, which then became the Meineke Car Care Bowl, and the Belk Bowl, before its present iteration. This will be Minnesota's 1st appearance here, but Va Tech is 1-1, losing to Kentucky in 2019, and defeating Arkansas in 2016. ACC teams are 10-12 here, while the Big Ten is 2-0. The Hokies are 14-21 in bowls, winning last year over Tulane, which broke a 4-bowl losing streak. This year VT is 6-6, losing 3 of their last 4, but beating rival UVA in their finale. Their notable wins were over BC and GT. The Gophers are 12-12 in bowl games, winning their last 7 (since 2015), with 5 of those wins by current HC PJ Fleck. They had a good season at 7-5, with wins over USC, at Illinois, and at Wisconsin, but lost to their only ACC opponent in their season opener, 19-17 to UNC at home, and lost 2 of their last 3 to end the regular season. This seems like a toss-up, but I'll go with the team with the slightly better record. Gophers win.


Saturday, January 4


Bahamas Bowl

Buffalo vs Liberty (Nassau, Bahamas)- The Flames have won all 3 previous matchups, in 1997, 2019 (both in Lynchburg), and 55-27 last year in Buffalo. The Bahamas Bowl has been around since 2014, and the Bulls defeated Charlotte in 2019 in their only appearance here. LU has never appeared in this bowl. Buffalo is 3-3 in bowls, winning their last 3, starting with that win over Charlotte. This year, the Bulls were a surprising 8-4, their most wins since their 8-5 season in 2019. They finished their season on a 4-game winning streak, but none of those wins were over a team that ended the season with a winning record. The Flames are 3-2 in bowl games, losing their last 2, and though they are 8-3 (their game with App State was canceled), they finished the season with losses in 3 of their last 4 games, losing their finale to SHS. With LU QB Kaidon Salter transferring to Colorado, I'm assuming he won't play in this game. Buffalo wins in a mild upset. 


Feel free to leave a comment. Come back next week as I continue my bowl (and playoff!) picks.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!      

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