Paul's Picks- Bowls Part I
Welcome Back!
Conference Championship Week could not have gone much worse for me prediction-wise, as I was only 4-5, a miserable 44.4% correct. This was my worst week of the season, and brings me down to 72.5% overall, a decrease of .4%.
Today I will pick the Army-Navy Game, and the 1st few Bowl Games. Bowl games are notoriously difficult to pick, as opt outs, coaching changes, and motivation (or lack thereof) can all affect the outcome. But I shall give it the old college try, and predict the winners with very little knowledge of who will or will not be playing for every team. Yay!
Now... on with the picks!
Saturday, December 14
Navy vs Army (Landover, MD)- The Midshipmen lead the series 62-55-7, but the Black Knights have won the last 2, and 6 of the last 8. This will be their 1st meeting as co-members of the AAC, though this will not count as a conference game. Since both teams defeated Air Force, the winner of this game gets to claim the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. The Falcons have won the most CIC Trophies, at 21, with Navy at 16 and Army at 10, and the trophy has been shared 5 times (the last time in 2021), but the Black Knights have won 4 of the last 7. Army is 11-1 this year with their only loss to Notre Dame by a score of 49-14, and they were AAC champions in their 1st year in the league by virtue of a 35-14 pounding of Tulane. Navy is 8-3, also losing to the Irish by a score of 51-14, but they also have a loss at Rice and to Tulane (35-0). Army wins.
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
South Alabama vs Western Michigan (Birmingham, AL)- This is basically a de-facto home game for the Jaguars, but they are technically the visiting team. Nothing says "Bowl Game" like a battle between two 6-6 G5 teams! This will be a 1st-time matchup between these 2 teams. This used to be called the Camellia Bowl, and has been played every year since 2014. SA is 0-1 in this bowl game, losing in the inaugural Camellia Bowl to 2014 to BGSU by a score of 33-28. This will be the 1st appearance in this bowl by the Broncos. The Jaguars are 1-3 in bowl games, winning for the 1st time last year; WMU is 2-9, winning their last appearance in the 2021 Quick Lane Bowl (other win in the 2015 Bahamas Bowl). Though they won their last game, the Broncs lost 3 of their last 4, while the Jags won 2 of their last 3, and 4 of their last 6. Jaguars win.
Tuesday, December 17
Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Memphis vs West Virginia (Frisco, TX)- Neither of these teams have ever played in the Frisco Bowl before (since 2017), and they've also never played each other. Memphis is 7-8 all time in bowl games, winning their last 3, and were 10-2 this year with losses at Navy (56-44) and at UTSA (44-36). Despite the large number of points given up in these games (plus 44 to UNT), the Tigers have held 7 opponents to 20 points or less, and 4 foes to 12 points or less. The Mountaineers are 17-23 overall in bowl games, winning last year, and were a disappointing 6-6 this year, but did win 3 of their last 5. They also allowed 45+ on 3 separate occasions, but their defense does not have the good performances Memphis did, and the WVU offense was held to 18 or less points 4 times. This is a great chance to the Tigers to show they belong in a P5 conference. Memphis wins.
Wednesday, December 18
Boca Raton Bowl
WKU @ James Madison (Boca Raton, FL)- These teams have never met before, and this will be JMU's 1st appearance in this bowl, but the Hilltoppers are 2-0 here in the bowl that has been played since 2014. The Dukes are in a bowl for the 2nd year in a row in only their 2nd season at the FBS level, losing in the Armed Forces Bowl last year to Air Force. JMU was 8-4 this year, a step back from their 11-2 record from a season ago, and they lost their last 2 games of the season to App State and SBC champion Marshall in 2 OTs. WKU is 7-3 in bowls, winning their last 3, and this is their 2nd straight year at 8-5, and they lost in the CUSA CG to finish the season with 3 losses in their last 4 games. After playing decent defense all season long, the Dukes gave up 32+ in each of their last 3 games, so neither team is coming into this game with any momentum. I like JMU to win this.
Art of Sport LA Bowl
California vs UNLV (Inglewood, CA)- The LA Bowl has only been around since 2021, so neither of these teams have played here before. However, we do get 2 teams that have actually played before, as the Golden Bears defeated the Rebels20-14 in 2022 in Berkeley. Las Vegas is actually closer to Inglewood than Berkeley is, by almost 2 hours (and almost 100 miles). UNLV is 3-2 in bowl games, losing their last 2, but this year they are 10-3, with 2 of their losses to MWC champ (and CFP participant!) Boise State and the other to Syracuse in OT. However, HC Barry Odom has left for the HC job at Purdue, so the Rebels will be rolling into the bowl under either interim HC Del Alexander or newly hired HC Dan Mullen, formerly of Florida and Mississippi State. Cal is 12-12-1 in bowls, losing their most recent contest last year. The Bears were 6-6 this year in their 1st season in the ACC, and lost 2 of their last 3, though they won 3 of their last 5. With all the changes at UNLV, I expect Cal to win as they start to build for next year.
Thursday, December 19
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston (New Orleans, LA)- This is yet another 1st time meeting, one of the things I love about bowls. This bowl game has been played since 2001, and the Eagles are 1-0 here, winning 38-3 in 2020 over La Tech. GS is 3-3 in bowls, losing their last 2, and this year came close to winning the SBC East with a record of 8-4 while winning their last 2 games. The BearKats will be playing in their 1st bowl game ever, as they turned around a 3-9 record from last year into a 9-3 record this year, winning 4 of their last 5 games. SHS held 9 opponents to 21 points or less, and 5 to 14 or less, but their offense often struggled to score, being held to 14 or less 5 times, and 23 or less 7 times. Eagles win.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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