College Football Preview Part XIV

Welcome Back!

Today I continue my 5 weeks of my college football previews. I begin with 3 weeks of individual team previews, and then conclude with 2 weeks of conference previews.

In case you are interested, I get all of my information from various sources. I use the 3 main preview magazines (Phil Steele, Lindy's, and Athlon), but I also use many different websites, including (but not limited to): Google, Winsipedia, sports-reference.com, ESPN.com, TeamRankings.com, NCAA.com, and, of course, individual school websites.

I don't have a staff- it's just me- so all of the research is my own from these various sources (it doesn't help when they contradict each other...), so any mistakes are mine. I also don't have an editor/proofreader, so you are likely to find several (many? I hope not) typos, such as commas where periods should be (or vice versa), a misspelled or missing word, doubled words ("the the" in the middle of a sentence, for example), etc. 

Finally, feel free to leave a comment. Interacting is much of the fun! Of course, if you know me personally, just text me. I'll get that a lot quicker.

So, on with the previews! 

10- Michigan Wolverines 8-5/5-4

Coach: Sherrone Moore (2nd year, 2nd overall FBS)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 9-5/.643/28th

3-year record/rank: 36-6/.857/2nd

6-year record/rank: 59-16/.787/7th

10-year record/rank: 97-30/.764/6th

Last League Title: 2023 Big Ten champions

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 4 years/2024/2024

Bowl Record/Rank: 24-29/.453/83rd

CFP Playoff Appearances: 3

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: 3/2023

Last Undefeated Season: 2023/15-0 under HC Jim Harbaugh

Last Winless Season: 1881/0-3 (3rd year of existence, only time ever, no coach listed)

All-time Record/Rank: 1012-358-36/.733/3rd

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 22.0/113th/14th Big Ten

Rushing: 157.2/73rd/7th

Passing: 129.1/131st/18th

Total: 286.2/129th/17th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 19.9/19th/8th

Rushing: 90.7/5th/3rd

Passing: 216.3/63rd/10th

Total: 307.0/10th/5th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 7/7

Schedule: 

Aug 30 New Mexico

Sep 6 @ Oklahoma

Sep 13 Central Michigan

Sep 20 @ Nebraska

Oct 4 Wisconsin

Oct 11 @ USC

Oct 18 Washington

Oct 25 @ Michigan State

Nov 1 Purdue

Nov 15 @ Northwestern

Nov 22 @ Maryland

Nov 29 Ohio State

Notes: The Wolverines have the most wins of any team, with 1,012, which is 34 ahead of 2nd place Ohio State; UM has 3 CFP appearances, winning 1; Michigan alternates home and away games until the last 2 weeks, with no consecutive home games; the Wolverines are on a 3-game winning streak, including a 19-13 win over Alabama in the ReliaQuest Bowl; Michigan has won 3 straight postseason games after losing 6 in a row from 2016-2022; they once had a 33-season bowl streak from 1975-2007, the 3rd longest of all time; offense was held to 19 points or less in 7 games, while the defense held 8 opponents to 21 points or less; 6 of 8 wins were by 7 points or less, while 4 of 5 losses were by at least 10 points; offense had no plays of 40+ yds all season; QB is expected to be true freshman Bryce Underwood, but Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene (2,892 yds, 70.5%, 18 TDs, 11 INT) is expected to push for playing time, and may even begin the year as the starter; defense allowed only 2 TDs over its final 14 quarters; K Dominic Zvada (21-22 FGs, 7-7 from 50+ yds, long 56, 26-27 PATs, Big Ten Kicker of the Year) returns, but P will be new; HC Sherrone Moore will be suspended for 2 games- weeks 3 and 4 against CMU and at Nebraska; 8 of 9 Big Ten opponents had losing conference records last year (Ohio State was 7-2).


Outlook: Michigan will be trying to make their 3rd CFP appearance in 4 years. Fortunately for them, they have a schedule that lends itself to success. They do have a tough game at Oklahoma in week 2, and 5 Big Ten road games, but those 5 teams had a combined record of 27-35 overall, 13-32 in the Big Ten, and only 8-14 in conference home games. The home slate doesn’t pose many difficulties either, as those teams had a combined record of 26-27 overall (12-25 without Ohio State), 14-22 in the Big Ten (7-20 w/o OSU), and 6-13 in road games (2-13 w/o the Buckeyes). That means the Wolverines face 9 teams that were a combined 53-62 overall, 27-54 in the Big Ten, and 14-27 home/away. Take away Ohio State and the remaining 8 teams were 39-60 overall, 20-52 in the Big Ten, and 10-27 home/away. Talk about a cupcake schedule! Of course, there is no guarantee that those teams will perform the same as last year, but there is also no guarantee they’ll do any better. I see Michigan perhaps making the Big Ten Championship Game, as they avoid Penn State and Oregon, but their game against the Buckeyes will make or break their season.

9- LSU Tigers 9-4/5-3

Coach: Brian Kelly (4th year, 22nd overall FBS)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 175-73/.706/14th

3-year record/rank: 29-11/.725/17th

6-year record/rank: 55-23/.705/13th

10-year record/rank: 91-37/.711/11th

Last League Title: 2019 SEC champions/2022 SEC West champions

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 4 years/2024/2024

Bowl Record/Rank: 31-24-1/.563/29th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 1

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: 3/2019

Last Undefeated Season: 2019/15-0 under HC Ed Orgeron

Last Winless Season: 1893/0-1 under HC Charles E. Coates (1st year ever) 

All-time Record/Rank: 852-438-47/.655/14th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 30.5/47th/7th SEC

Rushing: 116.4/107th/16th

Passing: 315.2/7th/2nd

Total: 431.5/25th/5th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 24.3/59th/14th

Rushing: 140.1/51st/12th

Passing: 224.3/76th/10th

Total: 364.4/61st/11th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 8/8

Schedule: 

Aug 30 @ Clemson

Sep 6 La Tech

Sep 13 Florida

Sep 20 SE La

Sep 27 @ Ole Miss

Oct 11 South Carolina

Oct 18 @ Vanderbilt

Oct 25 Texas A&M

Nov 8 @ Alabama

Nov 15 Arkansas

Nov 22 WKU

Nov 29 @ Oklahoma

Notes: HC Brian Kelly is only 25 wins away from career win #200, and could get there in the next 2-3 seasons; LSU has 815 all-time wins, 12th most all-time, and just 7 wins ahead of #13 Clemson; the Bayou Bengals have been in 56 bowls, tied for 7th most with Penn State and USC; the Tigers are on a 3-game winning streak, including a Texas Bowl win over Baylor; LSU was 6-0 at home last year, and has won 16 straight in Death Valley, dating back to a loss in game 6 of 2022 against Tennessee; offense scored 29+ points in 8 games, as defense held 6 opponents to 21 points or less; the Tigers have been to a bowl in 24 of the last 25 years, winning 16, with the only missing year being 2020; QB Garrett Nussmeier (4,052 yds, 62.3%, 29 TDs, 12 INT) returns; K Damian Ramos (23-29 FGs, long 50) returns, but P will be MTSU transfer Grant Chadwick (43.4 avg/40.5 net); the Bayou Bengals haven’t won an opening game in 5 years; OL will have 4 new starters, with only C DJ Chester returning.


Outlook: LSU has the talent to make the SEC CG and the CFP, but can they close the deal? The Tigers haven’t won an opener since 2019, and haven’t been better than 6-2 in the SEC since that year, and most years, 6-2 won’t get you there (last year notwithstanding). If they can make it through September unscathed- no small feat when you play at Clemson, host Florida, and play at Ole Miss- then the back half of their schedule is a little easier- but still includes SC, TAMU and Arkansas at home, and Vandy, Bama, and Oklahoma on the road. The Fighting Tigers could win anywhere from 6 to 10 games with that schedule, but 9 is my best guess, which would be a 4th straight season with 9+ wins.

8- Alabama Crimson Tide 9-4/5-3

Coach: Kalen DeBoer (2nd year, 6th overall FBS)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 46-13/.780/9th

3-year record/rank: 32-8/.800/6th

6-year record/rank: 69-12/.852/3rd

10-year record/rank: 124-16/.886/1st

Last League Title: 2023 SEC champions

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 21 years/2024/2022

Bowl Record/Rank: 45-29-3/.604/20th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 7

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: 12/2020

Last Undefeated Season: 2020/13-0 under HC Nick Saban

Last Winless Season: 1955/0-10 under HC Jennings Whitworth

All-time Record/Rank: 974-341-43/.733/2nd

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 33.8/22nd/3rd SEC

Rushing: 173.8/47th/6th

Passing: 236.4/56th/8th

Total: 410.2/42nd/7th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 14.4/10th/4th

Rushing: 137.8/48th/11th

Passing: 182.2/19th/3rd

Total: 320.1/21st/7th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 7/8

Schedule: 

Aug 30 @ FSU

Sep 6 ULM

Sep 13 Wisconsin

Sep 27 @ Georgia

Oct 4 Vanderbilt

Oct 11 @ Missouri

Oct 18 Tennessee

Oct 25 @ South Carolina

Nov 8 LSU

Nov 15 Oklahoma

Nov 22 Eastern Illinois

Nov 29 @ Auburn

Notes: The Crimson Tide have the 3rd longest bowl streak at 21 years; Alabama’s 974 wins are 3rd all-time, just 4 behind #2 Ohio State, and 12 ahead of #4 Notre Dame; the Crimson Tide has played in 77 bowl games, more than any other team; the Tide have appeared in 8 of 11 CFB playoffs, more than any other team, winning 3; Bama has lost 2 of their last 3 games, including the ReliaQuest Bowl to Michigan; Alabama has been ranked in the AP Poll for 278 consecutive weeks (since 2008), the 2nd longest all-time behind Nebraska (348 weeks, 1981-2002); 3 of 4 losses were by 7 points or less (combined 18 points); offense scored 41+ points in 6 games, but were held to 17 or less 3 times; defense held 7 opponents to 19 points or less, including 2 shutouts; UA has had 18 consecutive winning seasons, with their last losing season in 2006 (6-7 under HC Mike Shula), and have had 17 straight winning SEC seasons; The Tide have won 12 straight home games, and 21 SEC home games in a row, dating back to a 46-41 loss to LSU on Nov 9, 2019; QB will likely be 4th-year junior Ty Simpson (167 yds, 56.0%, 0 TDs, 0 INT); both K and P will be new; defense had 17 INTs, but only 25 sacks, fewest since 2013; RBs averaged only 4.8 ypc (83rd FBS); last season was the 1st time winning less than 10 games since 2007, and the 1st winning less than 11 games since 2010.


Outlook: As always, the Crimson Tide will be a factor in the SEC and in the national picture. They are one of the few teams to play two P4 non-conference foes (at FSU and Wisconsin in Tuscaloosa), though neither team had a winning season last year, and they have a challenging SEC slate, with UGA, Mizzou, SC, and rival Auburn on the road, and Vandy (who they lost to last year), Tenn, LSU, and Oklahoma (lost 24-3 in Norman in ‘24) at home. Even though they are breaking in a QB with only 50 career pass attempts, their offense should be just fine, and just in case, their defense should be good enough to hold on until QB Simpson gets some games under his belt. I expect Bama to be in the top 4 in the SEC at least, and to make the CFP.

7- Texas Longhorns 13-3/7-1

Coach: Steve Sarkisian (5th year, 11th overall)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 83-52/.615/40th

3-year record/rank: 33-10/.767/9th

6-year record/rank: 53-25/.679/19th

10-year record/rank: 80-49/.620/27th

Last League Title: 2023 Big 12 champions

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 3 years/2024/2024

Bowl Record/Rank: 33-27-2/.548/33rd

CFP Playoff Appearances: 2

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: 3/2005

Last Undefeated Season: 2005/13-0 under HC Mack Brown

Last Winless Season: Never (since 1893); worst seasons were 1-9 in 1956 under HC Edwin Price and 1-8 in 1938 under HC Dana Bible
All-time Record/Rank: 961-395-33/.704/7th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 33.0/29th/4th SEC

Rushing: 158.8/71st/10th

Passing: 278.8/14th/4th

Total: 437.5/21st/4th

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 15.3/3rd/2nd

Rushing: 109.6/13th/3rd

Passing: 173.8/7th/1st

Total: 283.4/3rd/1st

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 4/7

Schedule: 

Aug 30 @ Ohio State

Sep 6 San Jose State

Sep 13 UTEP

Sep 20 Sam Houston

Oct 4 @ Florida

Oct 11 Oklahoma (Dallas)

Oct 18 @ Kentucky

Oct 25 @ Mississippi State

Nov 1 Vanderbilt

Nov 15 @ Georgia

Nov 22 Arkansas

Nov 29 Texas A&M

Notes: The Longhorns have 961 all-time wins, good enough for 5th place, but just 1 behind 4th place Notre Dame and 11 ahead of 6th place Oklahoma; UT has appeared in 62 bowls, 3rd most in FBS; the Horns have 2 CFP appearances with no championships; Texas has won 6 of their last 9 postseason games, going 2-1 last year; the Horns have won 11 of their last 12 games away from Darrell K. Royal Stadium, and have won 11 consecutive true away games; UT has won 2 of their last 3 games, all in the CFP; offense scored 49+ points in 4 games, and 31+ points in 10, but in all 3 of their losses, they scored 19 points or less; defense held 10 opponents to 17 points or less; only 1 of 3 losses were by less than 14 points; QB will be Trey Owens; just kidding- we all know it will be Arch Manning (939 yds, 67.8%, 9 TDs, 2 INT, 108 yds rushing, 4.3 ypc); RB Quintrevion Wisner (1,064 yds, 4.7 ypc, 5 TDs, 44 receptions, 311 yds, 1 TD) returns; K will be Texas State transfer Mason Shipley (15-19 FGs, long 60, 1st team All-SBC), and P will be Utah transfer Jack Bouwmeester (44.7 avg/39.7 net); Longhorns committed 17 penalties during special teams plays last year; UT is one of only 8 teams that have been in their conference championship game for the last 2 years, and they and SMU are the only programs to go to 2 different CGs the last 2 years (other teams are Miami, Ohio, and UNLV- 2 in a row, Boise State and Tulane- 3 in a row, and Georgia- 4 in a row).


Outlook: The Longhorns are poised to win a national championship, but they have to get there first. I don’t see many teams reaching the 12-team CFP undefeated, but Ohio State proved last year that you don’t have to be unbeaten to win a national championship- just make it to The Dance. We’ll get a pretty good gauge of these Longhorns right off the bat as they travel to the aforementioned Buckeyes in their opener, and they also have Florida and Georgia on the road, and the annual game against the rival Sooners in Dallas. And they’ll be hosting Vandy (gave them a scare last year) and Texas A&M. If (when?) the Horns go 10-2 in the regular season, they’ll be in the CFP, which gives them a chance to win it all. But a loss at OSU will start to put a little pressure, which will only be added to if they lose another game pre-UGA on Nov 15.

 

6- Oregon Ducks 13-1/9-0

Coach: Dan Lanning (4th year, 4th overall)

Coach FBS Record/Rank: 35-6/.854/2nd

3-year record/rank: 35-6/.854/4th

6-year record/rank: 61-15/.802/5th

10-year record/rank: 90-37/.709/12th

Last League Title: 2024 Big Ten champions

Bowl Streak/Last Bowl Season/Last Bowl Win: 8 years/2024/2023

Bowl Record/Rank: 17-21/.447/86th

CFP Playoff Appearances: 2

AP Championships/Last AP Championship: None

Last Undefeated Season: 1916/7-0-1 under HC Hugh Bezdek

Last Winless Season: Never (since 1894); worst season was 1-9 in 1950 under HC Jim Aiken

All-time Record/Rank: 717-512-46/.580/38th

Offense/ranks:

Scoring: 34.9/17th/3rd Big Ten

Rushing: 157.9/72nd/6th

Passing: 279.5/13th/2nd

Total: 437.4/22nd/1st

Defense/ranks:

Scoring: 19.4/16th/6th

Rushing: 130.0/38th/11th

Passing: 185.9/25th/6th

Total: 315.9/15th/6th

Returning Starters (Off/Def): 8/6

Schedule: 

Aug 30 Montana State

Sep 6 Oklahoma State

Sep 13 @ Northwestern

Sep 20 Oregon State

Sep 27 @ Penn State

Oct 11 Indiana

Oct 18 @ Rutgers

Oct 25 Wisconsin

Nov 8 @ iowa

Nov 15 Minnesota

Nov 22 USC

Nov 29 @ Washington

Notes: The Ducks have the 6th longest bowl streak at 8 years; UO has 2 CFP appearances with no championships; Oregon has won 13 of their last 14 games (loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl), won their last 15 home games, and their last 15 conference games (not counting loss in the Pac 12 CG in 22); offense scored 31+ points in 11 games, while the defense held 10 opponents to 21 points or less; the Ducks have been to a bowl for 8 straight years, 19 of the last 20 seasons, and 26 of the last 28 (winning 14); QB will be Dante Moore (1,610 yds, 54%, 11 TDs, 9 INT in ‘23 at UCLA); Tulane transfer Makhi Hughes (1,401 yds, 15 TDs) will be the prime RB; K Atticus Sappington (14-16 FGs, long 48, 64-66 PATs) and P Ross James (45.5 avg/39.4 net) both return; Oregon is 35-6 over the last 3 seasons; Ducks have had 4 consecutive 10+ win seasons (2nd longest streak for UO), their longest streak since 7 straight from 2008-14, a span that covers HC Mike Belloti’s last year, all of the Chip Kelly era, and Mark Helfrich’s 1st year.


Outlook: Oregon is one of my favorites to reach the CFP. I feel the program has reached the level of just reloading each year, and there won’t be much dropoff, if any, from last year. So let’s examine the schedule. Their OOC games shouldn’t give them too many problems, as all 3 are at home, and only rival Oregon State could be problematic (though they weren’t last year in a 49-14 win in Corvallis). Within the Big Ten, the Quack Attack gets 5 road games, with the toughest of those at Penn State in Sep, at Iowa in early November, and at Washington in their final game. At home, Indiana and USC could pose problems, but I think Oregon wins both. Note that there is no Ohio State this season, and no Michigan, Illinois, or Nebraska. This team will win 10-12 in the regular season, with the game at the Nittany Lions perhaps deciding whether they make the Big Ten Championship Game. Whether they do or not, they should make the CFP for the 2nd year in a row.

Make sure you come back tomorrow as I continue my previews!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!